Results of the COLD-study(COntainer Liner Service Danube)

PROMIT WorkshopBasel, 13./14. Nov. 2006Gerhard Gussmagg

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Project COLDContainer Liner Service Danube• Austrian – Romanian initiative• Provides unbiased and comprehensive information on

potentials to all interested stakeholders• Feasibility study covering:

• Starting situation• Market and peer analysis• Inland navigation concept• Analysis of supply chain Krems – Shanghai in terms of

duration, cost and environmental balance• Conclusions and recommendations for action

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Growing container flows…

Asia-Europe2004: + 16,5 % !!!

Source: Hulocon 2005

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… and transhipment figures

Source: ISL: Lemper, Stuchtey (2004)

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Most important container portsContainer

PortTranshipment in million TEU

2001 2004 2005Growth rate

2001- 2004Growth rate

2004 - 2005Singapore 15.6 21.3 23.2 + 37%

+ 24 %+ 130%+ 169 %+ 42%+ 29%+ 36%

Hamburg 4.7 7.0 8.1 +49% +16%

+ 9%

+ 224 %

22.518.116.211.89.59.3

0.77

Hong Kong* 17.8 22.0 + 2%Shanghai* 6.3 14.6 + 24%Shenzhen 5.1 13.7 + 18%

Rotterdam 6.1 8.3 + 12%

Busan 8.1 11.4 + 4 %Kaohsiung 7.5 9.7 - 2%

Constanta 0.12 0.39 + 97%

*including river trade

Source: Websites of the port authorities and the publication “Port Statistics 2005“, Rotterdam Port

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TEUContainer transport on Europeaninland waterways

in T

EU

Source: VNF - CCNR

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European Success Stories

• Rhine• Yearly movements of more

than 1.8 Mio TEU• Daily services between ARA-

ports and German Hubs• Usage of high-capacity

vessels: JOWI etc.

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European Success Stories (2)

• Seine/Rhône• Container market literally

booming with an increase of 20% on the Rhône (2005: 55,807 TEU) and 40% on the Seine (2005: 121,584)

• New services from Marseille up to Lyon etc.

• Flemish waterways• Container transport average

yearly increase of 31 % between 1994 and 2004

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Container transport on theAustrian Danube

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Con

tain

ers

tran

spor

ted

in 1

,000

(20

ft, 3

0 ft

and

40 ft

)

Source: Statistik Austria

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Reasons for the underdevelopment

• Massive impediments for Danube navigation by the two crises in former Yugoslavia.

• Nautical and economic difficulties for inland navigation in the western direction (long transport times to ARA passing through more than 60 locks and from the very competitive block train routes).

• In the East, there were no important maritime container hubs in the estuary mouth of the Danube.

• BUT, we have a different situation now…

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Black Sea: Container throughputby Port, 1995-2005

Source: Ocean Shipping Consultants „The European & Mediterranean Containerport Markets to 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,00019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

1,00

0 TE

Us

Constanta

Varna

Burgas

Odessa/IlychevskOdessa

Ilychevsk

Novorossiysk

Poti

Total

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Developments in the Black Sea Area (1)

Container throughput at Black Sea ports increased by factor 10 over 1995-2005 to 1.76 Mio TEU.Recently, several direct services to/from the Far East have been introduced:

• CMA-CGM: Bosporus Express• China Shipping / ZIM• Hapag/Norasia: Asia Black Sea Service – ABS• MSC: Tiger Service

Vessel size 2000 - 5000 TEU

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Developments in the Black Sea Area (2)

Total volumes of all relevant countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Black Sea Russia, Georgia) are forecasted to increase to 3 Mio TEU in 2010 and 5 Mio TEU in 2015. Source: Source: Ocean Shipping Consultants „The European & Mediterranean Containerport Markets to 2015

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Container traffic in ConstantaPeriod 2001 - 2006

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

TEU

2006: estimationSource: Representative Constanta Port in Vienna

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Market and peer analysis

• Altogether, the current overseas container volume for the region of Austria, Hungary and Slovakia is estimated at around 700,000 TEU per year.

• The base volume required for scheduled Danube services that would connect the upper Danube section with Constanta is around 10,000 TEU per year. This represents a share of 1.5% of total volume.

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Austria‘s preferred seaports2004 Container*

Export Import Total Total in TEU1. Rotterdam 733.718 3.778.645 4.512.363 4.301.586 80.0002. Koper 788.946 2.738.415 3.527.361 2.969.430 10.0003. Hamburg 1.385.617 938.265 2.323.882 2.167.494 220.0004. Antwerpen 745.808 951.538 1.697.346 1.690.046 10.0005. Bremen Ports 1.017.439 106.282 1.123.721 1.179.433 70.0006. Constanta 40.609 354.708 395.317 420.645 07. Rijeka 175.490 27.221 202.711 195.111 08. Ports Lower Sax. n.a. n.a. 116.185 190.437 0

Trieste n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.0004.887.627 8.895.074 13.898.886 13.114.182 400.000

Austria's transit traffic in tons (2005)

• No precise figures for container traffic volumes• Predominance of the North Sea ports (95 %)• Hamburg clearly in first place

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Situation in Hungary and Slovakia• Hungarian overseas

container volumes approx. 200-250,000 TEU p.a., two-thirds being imports.

• North-sea dominance (75%)

• Overseas container volume for the Czech Republic andSlovakia is a total of around 200,000 TEU.

• For Slovakia: 12 block trains per week, a capacity utilization of 80% (= 60 TEU) and at 50 operating weeks per year would mean a volume of some 80,000 TEU.

Source: Rotterdam Port Representative Budapest, March 2006

Sea port Export Import TotalHamburg 37,000 68,000 105,000Koper 18,000 32,000 50,000Bremerhaven 12,000 19,000 31,000Rotterdam 6,500 8,000 14,500Total 73,500 127,000 200,500

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Selected railway rates (container)20 ft

(8-16.5 t)40 ft

(22-34 t)Vienna Freudenau CCT Hamburg Waltershof € 325 € 618

Linz Port CCT Hamburg Süd / Bhav. € 308 € 587Krems Port CCT Rotterdam Maasvlakte € 340 € 670

Györ LCH Rotterdam Pernis € 368 € 649Budapest BILK Koper Luka € 226 € 445

Bratislava SPAP Hamburg Eurokai (via Prague)

€ 413 € 715

• Railway rates obtained by a small forwarder; including one container handling in the inland terminal;

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Forecast of the flow of goods (1)

• Analysis of foreign trade between Austria, Slovakia and Hungary and selected European countries and overseas regions.

• Calculation was based on a theoretical containerization.

• Calculation includes continental shipments in the Danube region as well as short-sea (Maghreb, Levant, Turkey) and overseas shipments (Near East, Southeast and East Asia).

Source: ÖIR, 2006

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Forecast of the flow of goods (2)

• The study arrives at a potential for inland navigation for all three Danube countries for the year 2010 of 650,000 - 1.15mn TEU and for 2020 of 1.3 to 2.4mn TEU. The inland navigation potential for Austria is estimated at around 1.25mn TEU by 2020.

• The attainable potential for scheduled Danube services (COLD Potential) was assumed at a share of 5% for inland navigation. This means by 2010 a volume of 33,000 to 57,000 TEU p.a., and by 2020 almost 120,000 TEU p.a. The corresponding figures for Austria amount to 63,000 TEU per year.

Source: ÖIR, 2006

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Constanta

Belgrade

BudapestVienna

Krems

Inland navigation concept

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Distances and Main Inland Terminals

VIENNA

BUDAPEST

BELGRADE

River-km: 1920

River-km: 1640

River-km: 1167

CONSTANTA

65 km, 2 locks(Black-Sea-Canal)

280 km, 1 lock

473 km, 0 locks

KREMS River-km: 1998

78 km, 3 locks

CERNAVODA River-km: 300

867 km, 2 locks

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Selected inland port in Lower Austria:Mierka Donauhafen Krems

Source: Mierka Donauhafen Krems

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Definition of the Liner Service Concept

• Keeping deadlines and binding offers even if the waterway is temporarily unavailable (nautical hindrances),

• Existence of a time schedule (sailings at least every 14 days),

• Service available throughout the year (in both directions),

• Offer made to the general public.

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BASE SCENARIO: Danube-Service usingavailable fleet capacity

• Roundtrip Krems – Constanta - Krems in 3 weeks• Deployment of 3 convoys Weekly departures from

Constanta and Krems• Structure of convoy: Self propelled vessel + 1 Barge• Capacity of convoy: 60 + 60 TEU (10 x 3, double-stack)• Annual capacity: 4,100 TEU / convoy 12,500 / total

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Time table (Base scenario)Fr Su Fr Su Fr Su Fr Su

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28Convoy I 1 2 3 4 5 X 6 7 8 9 10 KR 1 2 3 X 4 5 6 B CO 1 2 3 4 5 X 6

Convoy II 3 X 4 5 6 B CO 1 2 3 4 5 X 6 7 8 9 10 KR 1 2 3 X 4 5 6 B CO

Convoy III 7 8 9 10 KR 1 2 3 X 4 5 6 B CO 1 2 3 4 5 X 6 7 8 9 10 KR 1 2

CO….ConstantaKR….KremsLoading/dischargingNavigation upstreamNavigation downstreamBuffer time Stop at border and/or inland terminal

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Cost situation base scenarioRelation: Krems - ConstantaTyp of vessel: MCV + PL, capacity per 60 TEUCapacity of convoy 120 TEUround-trip time 21 DaysLump sum cost per round-trip € 70,000

Utilisation 100% 90% 75% 50%TEU per round-trip 240 216 180 120Vessel cost per TEU 291.67 € 324.07 € 388.89 € 583.33 € incl. canal fees

Waterside handling fee per container 35.00 € 35.00 € 35.00 € 35.00 € Pierage per TEU 5.00 € 5.00 € 5.00 € 5.00 €

Basic cost 20' 331.67 € 364.07 € 428.89 € 623.33 € Basic cost 40' 628.33 € 693.15 € 822.78 € 1,211.67 €

Railway rate approx. €340/TEU €670/40‘

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OPTIMISED SCENARIO: using adaptedcontainer vessels and 3 layers• Roundtrip Krems-Constanta-Krems in 16 days• Structure of convoy: Self propelled vessel (DDSG

‘Steinklasse’) + 1 Barge adapted for container transport (4 x 11 x 3)

• Capacity of convoy: 90 + 132 TEU (triple stack!)• Annual capacity per convoy: 10,000 TEU

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Vertical clearance situation1

2Bridge

34

1 = Height of containers2 = Double bottom3 = Safety distance4 = Draught

Only one critical bridge: Temporary railway bridge Novi Sad at HNWL

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Cost situation optimised scenarioRelation: Krems - ConstantaTyp of vessel: MCV + PL, capacity 90/132 TEUCapacity of convoy 222 TEUround-trip time 16 Days

Utilisation 100%* 75% 50%

Cost per round-trip € 63,794 € 59,727 € 55,661TEU per round-trip 444 333 222Vessel cost per TEU 143.68 € 179.36 € 250.72 €

Canal fee per TEU 8.54 € 11.39 € 17.08 €

Waterside handling fee per container 35.00 € 35.00 € 35.00 € Pierage per TEU 5.00 € 5.00 € 5.00 €

Basic cost 20' 192.22 € 230.75 € 307.80 € Basic cost 40' 349.44 € 426.50 € 580.61 €

Railway rate approx. €340/TEU €670/40‘

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Overall View of the Supply Chain:Example Krems - Shanghai

Deep-sea voyage Shanghai-Hamburg vs. Shanghai-Constanta

+Transhipment in Hamburg vs. Constanta

+Hinterland transport: Rail (Hamburg) vs. Inland

Waterway Transport (Constanta)

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Transit time of total supply chain

Hamburg + Rail

Constanta + IWT Duration in days Hamburg

+ RailConstanta +

IWT

1,7 8,5Hinterland connection

(transport time rail resp. IWT incl. handling in inland terminals)

2,2 5,5

1,0 1,0 Seaport-time(Hamburg resp. Constanta) 1,0 1,0

27,0 23,0 Deep sea voyage(Direct service) 27,0 23,0

29,7 32,5 30,2 29,5100% 109% 100% 98%

PORT SHANGHAI

I M P O R TShanghai -> Krems

E X P O R TKrems -> Shanghai

PORT of KREMS

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Cost comparison of the supply chain(as of 1 Q 2006)

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40']

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40']

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40']

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40]

€ 340,- € 670,- € 231,- € 426,-Hinterland connection (Railway

and IWT incl. manipulation in Railway or IWT-Terminals)

€ 340,- € 670,- € 231,- € 426,-

€ 153,- € 153,- € 72,- € 104,- THC(Hamburg resp. Constanta) € 153,- € 153,- € 72,- € 104,-

€ 825,- € 1,649,- € 1,020,- € 2,039,- Ocean freight rate in Euro(incl. all additionals) € 242,- € 442,- € 348,- € 569,-

€ 1,318,- € 2,472,- € 1,322,- € 2,570,- € 735,- € 1,265,- € 650,- € 1,099,-

100% 100% 100% 104% 100% 100% 88% 87%

P O R T S H A N G H A I

Hamburg + Railway Constanta + IWT

P O R T K R E M S

I M P O R TShanghai -> Krems

E X P O R TKrems -> Shanghai

Hamburg + Railway Constanta + IWT

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Cost comparison of the supply chain(convergence of ocean freight rates)

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40']

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40']

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40']

Tariff[€/TEU]

Tariff[€/40]

€ 340,- € 670,- € 231,- € 426,-Hinterland connection (Railway

and IWT incl. manipulation in Railway or IWT-Terminals)

€ 340,- € 670,- € 231,- € 426,-

€ 153,- € 153,- € 72,- € 104,- THC(Hamburg resp. Constanta) € 153,- € 153,- € 72,- € 104,-

€ 900,- € 1,800,- € 900,- € 1,800,- Ocean freight rate in Euro(incl. additionals) € 325,- € 610,- € 325,- € 610,-

€ 1,393,- € 2,623,- € 1,203,- € 2,330,- € 818,- € 1,433,- € 628,- € 1,140,-

100% 100% 86% 89% 100% 100% 77% 80%

I M P O R TShanghai -> Krems

E X P O R TKrems -> Shanghai

Hamburg + Railway Constanta + IWT

P O R T S H A N G H A I

Hamburg + Railway Constanta + IWT

P O R T K R E M S

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Environmental balanceTOTAL ENVIRONMENTAL BALANCECO2 emission per container [kg]

SHANGHAIDeep sea 2,276.3 1,843.5Hinterland 427.4 577.1KREMSHinterland 427.4 258.0Deep sea 2,276.3 1,843.5SHANGHAITotal 5,407.2 4,522.1

100% 84%

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Hamburg + Rail

Constanta + IWT

• The combination of Constanta and the Danube produces

• 22% less CO2 per container in exports,

• 10% less in imports,• and on the round

trip 16% less.

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Conclusions

• Alternative routing via Constanta and Danube highly attractive trade between Asia and Central Europe:

Significant cost advantages when using specialised inland vessels

Similar transit time for total supply chainEnvironmental balance very positive

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Next steps• Distribution of final report.• Involvement of overseas shipping companies and

large industrial companies. • Verification of inland navigation concept:

• Availability of adapted container vessels• Organisation of substitute transport (high/low water, ice)• Improvement of cost structure by transporting empty

containers and continental cargo (silo and tank containers)• Involvement of intermediate ports in Hungary and Serbia• Reduction of start-up risk by National and EU-funding (Marco

Polo II)• ...

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Soon to come…

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Gerhard GussmaggTeam Leader Transport Developmentvia donau – Österreichische Wasserstraßen-Gesellschaft mbHA-1220 Vienna, Donau-City-Straße 1, AUSTRIATel +43 50 4321 1617, Fax +43 50 4321 1050gerhard.gussmagg@via-donau.orgwww.donauschifffahrt.info/transport

Download of study: www.via-donau.org/en/cold