Date post: | 05-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | bethanie-morrison |
View: | 229 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Public Opinion
Chapter 7
What is Public Opinion?
Public Opinion is the collective attitude of citizens on a given issue or questionIn a democracy, government policy is supposed to be made in response to the public’s wishesDemocratic theory implies that government leaders are able to ascertain what the public is thinking about current political and social issues
Majoritarian Model
Government should do what the majority wants
Direct election of House supposed to take public opinion into account
Legislation passed by a majority of the House does not necessarily reflect the opinions of a majority of citizens
The U.S. is a majoritarian systemPsych!
Budget deficit vs. balanced budget
ERA not ratified vs. most people supported it
Impeach Clinton vs. most opposed it
Term limits wanted vs. not approved
Get out of Iraq vs. Still in Iraq
If, If, If…
If we were to use the majoritarian model to make policy, we would need a way to do it
How do we find out what people think about what government should do?
Opinion Polling
January 2007 Example
As you may know, the Bush administration is considering a temporary but significant increase in the number of US troops in Iraq to help stabilize the situation there. Would you favor or oppose this?18% Strongly favor18% Moderately favor19% Moderately Oppose42% Strongly Oppose3% No opinion
majoritarian? democratic?
Knowing how often government policy runs against majority opinion, it becomes harder to defend the U.S. government as democratic under the majoritarian view of democracy
???????????
Perhaps there is another model at work here:
Pluralist Model
Role of government: protect and promote diversity of opinion.
Human nature is selfish and acquisitive.
Government must merely allow free expression of the often numerous “minority” opinions
(Government doesn’t have to do exactly what the groups or the majority want)
Pluralism
Public seldom demonstrates clear opinions on the day-to-day operations of government
Some subgroups (factions?) will have vigorous opinions on some issues
More About Polling
More About Polling
Apparently, polling has been going on for awhile
“The Battle of the Bulge Poll”
How is this possible?
Statistical sampling theory and computer technology have made it possible to better understand the distribution of the population’s beliefs and attitudes about politics and government
“Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone”
Modern survey research methodology allows national opinion to be estimated within specified degrees of accuracy
Factors Influencing AccuracyThe way the sample is selected (random sampling is needed to compute sampling error)
The size of the sample (national samples of 1500 cases will be accurate within three percentage points, plus or minus)
The amount of variation in the population (pollsters compute sampling accuracy by assuming maximum variation in the population)
PollsSpecifics:
For populations over 500,00 pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, ensuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3%
Increasingly difficult to get this number because of call-screening
New problem: cell-phone-only homes
Low response rates harm reliability
Polling Dictionary
Wonderful Polling Vocabulary
QuestionsWhy must a public opinion sample be a random sample? Why not simply stop a random group of citizens on the street?
Why is the sampling error margin so important to the accurate prediction required by modern polling methods?
How might a survey be “loaded”? How can the way a question is worded influence how one responds to it?
11%13%
33%
70%
21%
5% 3%
43%
To have a hotline For government to set up a hotline
Questionnaire design: The Effect of One Word
Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University National Survey of Americans’ Views on Consumer Protections in managed Care, January 1998
How important do you think it isto have a hotline telephone number people can call to get help when they have problems with their health plan?
How important do you think it is for the GOVERNMENT to set up a hotline telephone number people can call to get help when they have problems with their health plan?
Very Important Somewhat Important Not too important Not at all important
Questionnaire design: Balance in question wording
What’s wrong with these questions?
• Do you support the United States taking military action against Iraq?
• If you heard that Candidate X supported stricter gun control laws, would that make you more likely to vote for her?
• Did you happen to vote in the presidential election in 2000?
Questionnaire design: Balance in question wording
Bad questions, improved:
• Do you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Iraq?
• If you heard that Candidate X supported stricter gun control laws, would that make you more likely to vote for her, less likely to vote for her, or wouldn’t it make much difference?
• Did you happen to vote in the presidential election in 2000, or not?
Problem of Question Wording
Would you support or oppose changing Senate rules to make it easier for the Republicans to confirm Bush’s judicial nominees?
Support 26%Oppose 66%
Washington Post/ABC News Poll 1007 Adults April 21-24 2005
Margin of Error +/- 3%
Problem of Question Wording
The Republicans won the last election so President Bush should be able to appoint anyone he wants to the federal courts if a majority of the Senators agree.
Agree 53%Disagree 43%
Pew research Center Poll1502 Adults, May 11-15, 2005
Margin of error +/- 3%
Problem of Question Wording
The minority party ought to be able to block some of the judges they feel strongly about because judges are appointed to the federal courts for life terms.
Agree 62%Disagree 30%
Pew research Center Poll1502 Adults, May 11-15, 2005
Margin of error +/- 3%
Problem of Question Wording
Senate rules should be changed so that a vote must be taken on every person the President nominates to become a judge.
Yes 57%No 25%
Rasmussen Reports Poll1000 Adults, May 12-13 2005
Margin of Error +/- 3%
What guides people’s opinions?What guides people’s opinions?
Political IdeologyPolitical Ideology
Political IdeologyPolitical Ideology Complex and interrelated set of values Complex and interrelated set of values
(and beliefs) that form a general (and beliefs) that form a general philosophy of government.philosophy of government.
Generates an individual’s position on Generates an individual’s position on political and social issues and political and social issues and influences their opinions (and influences their opinions (and attitudes) about events.attitudes) about events.
Since they are based on values and Since they are based on values and beliefs, it tends to be intensely held, beliefs, it tends to be intensely held, long-lasting, and difficult to change.long-lasting, and difficult to change.
For Example:For Example:
And to think…And to think…• Your ideology comes from your family!Your ideology comes from your family!
• Actually your family is one of the Actually your family is one of the institutions that impacts Political institutions that impacts Political SocializationSocialization
Socializing InstitutionsSocializing Institutions• The FamilyThe Family• Social GroupsSocial Groups
InvoluntaryInvoluntary• GenderGender• EthnicityEthnicity• RaceRace• Class and Income?Class and Income?
VoluntaryVoluntary• ReligionReligion• Education Education • OccupationOccupation• UnionUnion• Political Party Political Party
• PeersPeers• RegionRegion• MediaMedia• Economic InterestsEconomic Interests
Political Ideology Trivia:Political Ideology Trivia:
Invention of IdeologyInvention of Ideology
&
Political Ideology Continuum:Political Ideology Continuum:
Traditional Ideological ContinuumTraditional Ideological Continuum
How we thinkHow we think The majority of Americans do not The majority of Americans do not
tend to think ideologicallytend to think ideologically People who form their political People who form their political
opinions on the basis of a disntict opinions on the basis of a disntict ideology constitute only about 20 ideology constitute only about 20 percent of the electoratepercent of the electorate
Most people place themselves Most people place themselves somewhere along the continuum, but somewhere along the continuum, but few understand what that means few understand what that means politicallypolitically
The Middle:The Middle: Many Americans seem to choose the Many Americans seem to choose the
easy response and locate themselves easy response and locate themselves in the center. in the center.
ModerateModerate MiddleMiddle
Others may choose the middle Others may choose the middle because they have some because they have some conservative views and some liberal conservative views and some liberal viewsviews
Critique of Traditional ContinuumCritique of Traditional Continuum
CritiqueCritique• Does not differentiate economic and Does not differentiate economic and
social issuessocial issues• Does not take into account the ultra Does not take into account the ultra
extremesextremes• Many are not “liberals” or Many are not “liberals” or
“conservatives”“conservatives” Alternatives: Analysis Based ValuesAlternatives: Analysis Based Values
• Kevin PhillipsKevin Phillips• Aaron WildavskiAaron Wildavski
Ideological MatrixIdeological Matrix
Ideological MatrixIdeological Matrix
Values Based IdeologyValues Based Ideology
Values Based IdeologyValues Based Ideology
Values Based IdeologyValues Based Ideology
Where do you stand?
Get up. Stand up.
Where does everyone else stand?
Who and Where?Really important . . Why?
Simple Philosophical Framework for Ideology: People are generally
good, People are generally not
good
The End