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Q2 2014 Global Talent Market Quarterly

Date post:11-Aug-2014
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2014 is expected to be a modestly stronger year for the global economy, with GDP growth projected to surpass 3%. The expansion will be led by a moderate strengthening in North America and the slow but steady recovery in Western Europe. On the other hand, many emerging markets continue to face challenges including structural issues and political turmoil that are limiting growth. This is the "headline" of the Q2 Global Talent Market Quarterly. Have a look at the new report .
  • Global Talent Market Quarterly SECOND QUARTER l 2014
  • Global Talent Market Quarterly CONTENTS 3 Global Economic Situation Outlook Briefing 6 Global Labor Market Update Americas EMEA APAC Global Labor Market Spotlight Legislative Update 12 U.S. Labor Market Overview Current Employment Conditions Supply and Demand Labor Market Spotlight 16 Workforce Solutions Industry Insight Talent Adaptability Global Human Capital Priorities The Leadership Gap The Talent Project
  • Global Economic Situation SECOND QUARTER l 2014
  • GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2014 is expected to be a modestly stronger year for the global economy, with GDP growth projected to reach 3.1%. The expansion will led by better performances in North America and Western Europe, while growth in some emerging economies is forecast to weaken. Sources: IHS Global Insight (April 2014)4 AMERICAS North American GDP growth is expected to strengthen as 2014 progresses, and in the following years. In South America, economic growth is forecast to slow in 2014, reflecting weak performances in Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela. EMEA The Eurozone recovery will take hold in 2014, as Western Europe in general is expected to see stronger economic growth. Most of emerging Europe will benefit from the Eurozone recovery; exceptions include the troubled Russia and Ukraine markets. The economic outlook for the Middle East also remains vulnerable to regional political instability. APAC The region is expected to see solid growth overall in 2014 and beyond, but the outlook varies for its diverse economies. Future growth in Japan and China depends in part upon further stimulus programs, while other export-oriented markets will see greater benefits from a stronger global economy. 4.8% 5.0% 5.3% 5.3% 3.2% 2.3% 3.0% 3.7% 2.5% 3.1% 3.6% 3.8% 1.9% 2.5% 3.3% 3.3% 1.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% -0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2013 (p) 2014 (p) 2015 (p) 2016 (p) REAL GDP GROWTH BY REGION, 2013-2016 (p) APAC Latin America World U.S. EMEA Eurozone Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS
  • ECONOMIC BRIEFINGS Developed countries are expected to drive economic growth in 2014, as North America sees solid acceleration and Western European economies continue to slowly recover. Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and Russia, are facing challenges including political turmoil and structural issues that are limiting growth. -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Italy France Japan Russia Brazil Germany Canada Australia U.S. U.K. India China REAL GDP GROWTH RATES, SELECTED MARKETS Ranked by 2014(p) growth 2013(p) 2014(p) 2015(p) 5 Global GDP Growth 2014(p): 3.1% Sources: IHS Global Insight (April 2014) EMERGING MARKETS The slowdown in CHINA that began in late 2013 has shown signs of deepening in early 2014, with real estate and exports among the hardest hit areas. Stimulus is expected to prop up growth to the 7.5% target for 2014. INDIAs growth is expected to accelerate in 2014, but structural weakness and political uncertainty surrounding the spring elections will limit near-term economic progress. The RUSSIAN economy had been weakening, and the troubles in Crimea have further downgraded its economic prospects. Growth is projected at 1.7% in 2014. In BRAZIL, economic growth is also sluggish. High debt burdens and increasing inflation are limiting consumer spending, while rising interest rates are restraining investment. DEVELOPED ECONOMIES After a slow start to 2014, the economy will likely gain momentum in the U.S., with growth projected to reach 2.5% for the year. CANADA will also see GDP growth pick up in 2014-15, led by an acceleration in exports. Western European growth will be led by the U.K., IRELAND, and GERMANY, which are expected to see broad-based improvements in 2014. Across Southern Europe, positive GDP growth is projected to return in 2014 to most markets as the recovery takes hold. Modest growth in the AUSTRALIAN economy is forecast to continue, but the countrys mining sector slowdown and subdued export demand will limit expansion. In JAPAN, the economy is expected to pause in mid-2014 after a sales tax hike, but stimulus measures and the recovery of exports will support modest growth for the year. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS
  • Global Labor Market Update SECOND QUARTER l 2014
  • GLOBAL LABOR MARKET UPDATE: AMERICAS Moderate employment gains are expected to accelerate across the region in 2014 as U.S. economic conditions brighten. In Latin American countries including Brazil and Mexico, labor markets continue to weather the impacts of slower economic growth. Sources: IHS Global Insight (April 2014); Reuters, 03.27.14; Toronto Star, 04.05.14 7 UNITED STATES U.S. employment creation slowed in December and January, but job growth has since bounced back to respectable levels. An improving economic picture is likely to spur continued solid gains over the near term. BRAZIL A shrinking workforce has kept Brazil's jobless rate low even as the economy has struggled to grow in recent years. The unemployment rate has hovered in the mid-5% range and employment has been stagnant over the past year. CANADA Through the first quarter of 2014, Canadian job growth is outpacing the sluggish gains seen in 2013. Modest employment gains are expected for the rest of 2014, with an acceleration predicted for the following year. MEXICO The Mexican labor market continues to show moderate improvements, despite a weak economic performance in 2013 and fiscal reform introduced at the start of 2014. The unemployment and labor market informality rates have fallen, and labor force participation edged up. 7.4% 6.4% 5.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 7.1% 6.9% 6.7% 6.5% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2013 (e) 2014 (p) 2015 (p) 2016 (p) AVERAGE ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE U.S. Brazil Canada Mexico Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS
  • GLOBAL LABOR MARKET UPDATE: EMEA Labor markets across Europe are projected to show signs of improvement in 2014 as the recovery takes hold. The rate of progress will be significantly slower in the Southern countries that saw unemployment soar during the economic crisis. Sources: IHS Global Insight (April 2014); Economist Intelligence Unit, 04.16.14; Prime News, 04.16.14 8 FRANCE Employment in France showed a slight uptick during the final three months of 2013, but demand remains very weak and hiring is still not strong enough to make significant inroads into France's high unemployment rate. GERMANY Job growth in Germany, which has been strong in recent years despite regional economic challenges, has gained even more momentum in the first part of 2014. Greater improvements in unemployment in the coming years will be somewhat restrained by rising immigration. RUSSIA Despite the slowdown in the economy and the crisis with Ukraine, unemployment in Russia continues to decline. The unemployment rate fell to a record low of 5.4% in March 2014. UNITED KINGDOM The U.K. labor market continues to generate new jobs at a significant pace, although questions have arisen about the quality of the jobs being created. Still, unemployment is also on a downward trend, and more encouraging, average earnings growth has caught up to the inflation rate. 10.3% 11.0% 11.0% 10.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% 5.5% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 7.6% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 2013 (e) 2014 (p) 2015 (p) 2016 (p) AVERAGE ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE France Germany Russia U.K. Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS
  • GLOBAL LABOR MARKET UPDATE: APAC The 2014 employment outlook for key APAC countries is positive, with improving business confidence leading to increased demand, particularly for professional workers. Sources: IHS Global Insight (April 2014); Staffing Industry Analysts, 04.03.14, 04.11.14; Australian Financial Review, 03.07.14; Market News International, 03.27.14 9 AUSTRALIA Job creation in Australia was unexpectedly strong in February and March 2014, pushing the unemployment rate below the 6% mark. Although hiring is expected to remain brisk, unemployment is projected to rise slightly throughout the year as more people enter or re-enter the labor market. CHINA Maintaining solid employment growth is a key priority for the Chinese government in 2014, in the face of weaker economic conditions. Job board Zhaopin reported that online vacancies increased in Q1, driven by demand from the financial sector. INDIA Business confidence is beginning to return in India following the economic malaise of the past few years and the spring elections, and hiring levels are starting to pick up. Infrastructure, engineering, and petrochemicals are among the areas that showed the most demand in March 2014. JAPAN Japan's labor market conditions continue to improve, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in February 2014, its lowest level since mid-2007. Demand for workers is high, particularly in the construction industry, and part-time employment is also expected to jump as the new sales tax takes effect. 5.7% 6.0% 5.7% 5.3% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 9.2% 9.2% 9.1% 8.7% 4.0% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2013 (e) 2014 (p) 2015 (p) 2016 (p) AVERAGE ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Australia China India Japan Global Talent Market Quarterly BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS
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