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QIMOS Node 2014 Annual Planning meeting
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QIMOS - Outline
• Challenges and scientific opportunities • QIMOS under NCRIS II • How can QIMOS make a difference?
– Uptake from QIMOS: 2006 - 2014. • Future vision
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GBR and SEQ Marine ecosystems under pressure
• Major urbanisation along coastal fringe
• Coastal development (ports, navigation, coastal industries)
• Coastal habitat loss • Poor water quality • Extreme events - Floods
and coastal inundation
Opportunities
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GBR and SEQ Marine ecosystems under pressure
GBR specific • Threat to values that underpin World Heritage Listing
– Strategic Assessment – Reef 2050 Sustainability Plan • Poor water quality (catchment runoff, COTS) • Port developments, dredging and spoil disposal.
COTS have caused 42% of the observed coral loss (48% by cyclones, 10% bleaching). De’ath, G., et al 2012. The 27–year decline of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef and its causes. PNAS
Opportunities
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What we do under NCRIS II
Central GBR Palm Passage / Myrmidon moorings Orpheus Island Sensor net Yongala NRS ATAAMS
Southern GBR Heron Island moorings Capricorn Radar Heron + One tree Sensor net ATAAMS
Lizard Island Sensor Coral sea gliders – 2 missions p.a.
SEQ NSI NRS ATAAMS CPR, AUV
Few and Sparse - Very limited continental shelf footprint - Few near real-time data streams - 1 mooring for SEQ - No off-reef observations north of central GBR
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... and how can QIMOS make a difference?
Central GBR Palm Passage / Myrmidon moorings Orpheus Island Sensor net Yongala NRS ATAAMS
Southern GBR Heron Island moorings Capricorn Radar Heron + One tree Sensor net ATAAMS
SEQ NSI NRS ATAAMS CPR, AUV
Few and Sparse - Very limited continental shelf footprint - Few near real-time data streams - 1 mooring for SEQ - No off-reef observations north of central GBR
Lizard Island Sensor Coral sea gliders – 2 missions p.a.
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...impediments to uptake
- offshore focus vs coastal issues - limited spatial coverage - Few near real-time data streams - timely access to quality controlled data
- industrial & operational needs
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Sustainable marine industries – SE QLD Trawl effort Relative trawl effort in indicates highly productive ecosystems sustained by upwelling
Uptake
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• 15 species – commercial , recreational and conservation value including sharks, turtles, dugongs, manta rays, bony fish and crabs
• 350 tagged animals • “fully co-invested” • 645 km coverage, 196 receivers • Commonwealth and State research
agencies, Universities, consultants (>9)
Sustainable marine industries – SEQ ATAAMS array Uptake
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Heron Island
Maryborough
Brisbane
Bryon Bay
Coffs Harbour
Port Macquarie
Tagging 2012, 2013 18 tagged leopard sharks (V16)
April13 Nov13-Jan14
x6
100km
Christine Dudgeon 100km
Feb12 Oct12-Mar13 Oct13-Jan14
x6 y1 y2
• 66% return rate • The majority of tagged sharks recorded
moving north in winter
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Decision support tools
Management action, scenario testing & assessment
Modelled catchment loads
Large-scale WQ model
Ecological impact models
Fine-scale impact models
Receiving water impact models
Management scenario Mass Flow Impact assesment
Receiving water quality models and management strategy evaluation
Uptake
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Moreton Bay RWQM Uptake
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Moreton Bay RWQM Uptake
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Conceptual linkages between management action targets and targets/objectives
for receiving waters water quality and ecosystem health
Webster IT, Brinkman R, Parslow J, Prange J, Stevens ADL and Waterhouse J. 2008.
eReefs : Integrated bio-physical modelling of the GBR
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Large-scale Water Quality Model
eReefs Modelling framework
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Oceanographic Moorings Ocean Gliders* Ocean Surface Radar Remote sensing Meteorological weather stations Sensor Networks ARGO profilers Underway sampling
Q-IMOS
Lizard Slope (360m)
Lizard Shelf (30m)
Myrmidon Reef (200m)
Palm Passage (65m)
Yongala NRS (30m)
Capricorn Channel (90m)
Heron North (46m) Heron South (46m) One Tree
East (60m)
Elusive Reef (300m)
Cairns
Townsville
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• outbreaks 1962, 1979, 1994 and 2012 are known to have begun on the reefs between Cairns and Lizard Island since 1950.
• Floods of 1973-74, 1990-91 and 2010-11 were the three largest in the last 80 years. • primary COTS outbreaks follow 2-5 years after early (Nov-Feb) wet seasons when
aggregate discharges from the Burdekin to Daintree rivers exceeded 10 Km3.
Application – understanding drivers of reef water quality and COTS outbreaks..
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True colour MODIS image of the central GBR on 10 February 2007 showing the extent of river plumes between Cape Bedford (15.2°S) and the Burdekin River (19°S). Imagery source: NASA GSFC. Processed by L. McKinna (JCU).
Cape Bedford
(15.2°S)
Cape Tribulation
Daintree River
Grafton Passage
Russell-Mulgrave Rivers
Johnstone River
Tully River
Herbert River
Townsville
Burdekin River (19°S)
Cairns
Undine Reef
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Salinity
20 PSU 30
Passive Tracer Burdekin River
0 % init 10 Conc
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Volumetric and DIN contributions of individual rivers to the COTS outbreak initiation region
Volumetric
Ranking DIN Risk Ranking
River Northern Southern Northern Southern
Normanby 8 8 Daintree 1 1 2 5 Barron 6 2 Russell-Mulgrave 2 4 1 2 Johnstone 4 6 3 3 Tully 3 5 3 4 Herbert 7 7 Burdekin 5 3 1
Contribution to Nitrogen pool in COTS outbreak region: Entire region : Russell-Mulgrave > Burdekin > Johnstone Northern: Russell-Mulgrave > Daintree> Johnstone Southern: Burdekin > Russell-Mulgrave > Johnstone
• Risk-based approach utilised by the 2013 Scientific Consensus Statement
on GBR water quality (Brodie et al. 2013b). • Identified priority catchments for remedial action, influence investment
decisions within the Reef Plan overseen by the Australian and Queensland Governments.
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Large-scale Water Quality Model
eReefs Modelling framework
predicting sediment transport and pelagic primary production at shelf scales
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TSS (kg m-3) during the cyclone Yasi event non-cyclone conditions
Improved understanding of GBR WQ variability
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Cross section of simulated total phytoplankton chlorophyll, carbon and the dynamically varying C:Chl ratio on the 18th October 2012.
Simulated uncalibrated surface chlorophyll
Improved understanding of GBR WQ variability
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GBR Integrated monitoring program • 2013 - Strategic Assessments for the GBR and the adjacent coastal zone. • 2014 - Long-term Sustainability Plan for the GBR.
• A key feature of the Plan is expected to be an Integrated Monitoring
Program designed to inform adaptive management.
• underpinning layer of observations • Weather, ocean variability , reef water quality
• Increase spatial coverage (Northern GBR) • Increased density (increase lagoonal obs) • Increased frequency
How, cost effectively?
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Future directions • Leverage ocean observation through integration with numerical
simulation models • Models informing adaptive management
– GBR & SEQ demonstrate the value proposition – GBR IMP, cumulative impacts
• Requires a suite of essential in-situ ocean observations – cal/val & data assimilation – External eReefs review
• Identified strong dependency of model and data - risk • Availability of data underpins utility of model
– imminent scoping study to identify critical variables for eReefs
• Priority data streams - priority shelf gliders – Others, see Node SIP
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Thank you
Acknowledgements: All those who contributed to the QIMOS Node Science and implementation plan. Peter Doherty (Foundation Node Leader) Russ Babcock (Deputy Node leader) QIMOS Advisory group