12
Quarterly Market Indicators Q4 2019
Quarterly Market
Indicators
Q4 2019
Content
Disclaimer Page 3
Mobile services Page 5
Fixed line telephony services Page 7
Broadband services Page 9
Definitions Page 11
▪ TRA has relied on information supplied to it by third parties. It has not independently verified that
data and as such does not make any representations or warranties, either express or implied,
that:
▪ the information is free from inaccuracies, errors or omissions;
▪ the information is exhaustive;
▪ the information is of merchantable quality and fitness for a particular purpose.
▪ TRA, including its officers, board members, employees, agents and contractors, is not liable for:
▪ any inaccuracy, error or omission in the information contained in this document; nor
▪ any loss, damage, cost or expense whether direct, indirect, consequential or special, incurred
by, or arising by reason of, any person using or relying on the information and whether caused
by reason of any inaccuracy, error, omission or misrepresentation in the information or
otherwise.
Disclaimer
Market Indicators Snapshot for Q4 2019
Mobile subscribers:
2,070,710
Penetration:
138%
Mobile Prepaid subscribers:
1,399,670
% of Prepaid of Mobile Market:
67.59%
Mobile Postpaid subscribers:
671,040
% of Postpaid of Mobile Market:
32.41%
Fixed-telephony subscribers: 225,797
Penetration: 15%
From mobile: 354,425,134
From fixed telephony: 1,261,876
2.35 Million broadband subscriptions
156.6%Broadband Penetration Rate
187 PetabyteTotal Data Usage
112 PetabyteFixed Broadband Traffic
74.5 PetabyteMobile Broadband Traffic
Fixed Wired Telephony Subscribers:
88.10%Fixed Wireless Telephony Subscribers:
11.90%
International Outgoing minutes:
Domestic monthly average minutes per line:
129 minutes
Avg. Traffic per subscription per month:
26.5 GB
Avg. Fixed Traffic per month:
182.7 GB
Avg. Mobile Traffic per month:
11.6 GB
Average minutes
per month per
mobile subscription:
222 minutes
◎ The growth trend in mobile postpaid subscriptions continued as postpaid subscriptions
increased from 639,209 at the end of 2018 to 671,040 at the end of Q4 2019, a 5% increase.
◎ On the other hand, mobile prepaid subscriptions is declining from 1,453,505 at the end of 2018
to 1,399,670 at the end of Q4 2019, a 3.7% decline.
◎ Overall, total subscriptions remained somewhat stable over the last two years. Penetration
rates were also stable over the period.
◎ Number of accepted ported mobile lines increased from 2,322 in Q4 2018 to 7,714 in Q4 2019.
Number of Mobile subscriptions (End of Q4 2019)
2016 2017 2018 Q4 2019Total 2,994,865 2,364,477 2,092,714 2,070,710
% of Prepaid 80.60% 73.94% 69.46% 67.59%% of Postpaid 19.40% 26.06% 30.54% 32.41%
2,070,710 Subscriptions138% Penetration rate
Mobile services: Subscriptions
Population 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q4 2019
By IGA 1,370,322 1,423,726 1,501,116 1,503,091 1,503,091
2.5
42
2.9
95
2.3
64
2.0
93
2.0
80
2.0
87
2.0
42
2.0
71
185%210%
158%139% 138% 139% 136% 138%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Mill
ion
s
Mobile subscriptions and penetration
Total mobile subscriptions Mobile penetration rate
2,4
69
2,4
76
2,5
07
2,5
42
2,6
41
2,8
27
2,8
03
2,9
95
2,6
93
2,6
75
2,6
14
2,3
64
2,2
67
2,1
91
2,1
13
2,0
93
2,0
80
2,0
87
2,0
42
2,0
71
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Tho
usa
nd
s
Number of mobile subscriptions
Prepaid
Postpaid
Total
7,892
3,751 3,185 3,018 2,652 2,328
4,160
2,322 2,518 3,182 3,622
7,714
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
NUMBER OF ACCEPTED MOBILE PORTING REQUESTS
◎ Between Q4 2018 & Q4 2019, total mobile outgoing minutes decreased by 14.64%.
◎ Domestic mobile prepaid outgoing minutes declined by 18.9% while domestic mobile
postpaid minutes declined by 6.2%. Overall, total domestic minutes declined by 12.77%.
◎ For mobile international outgoing minutes, prepaid minutes declined by 19.54% while
postpaid minutes declined by 20.81%. Overall, mobile International outgoing minutes
declined by 19.58%.
◎ Average monthly minutes per user decreased to 222 minutes compared to 256 minutes in
Q4 2018. However, Average monthly minutes have increased compared to Q3 2019. That
number comprises average domestic monthly minutes per subscribers of 164 and average
international monthly minutes by subscriber of 57.
Total Outgoing Traffic in Minutes(Domestic + International)*Mobile services: Traffic (Minutes)
1,604,483,153
Q4 2018
1,369,609,111
Q4 2019 14.6%
* Revised for 2019 data
1,4
17
1,3
71
1,2
73
1,2
87
1,2
45
1,2
05
1,1
21
1,1
64
1,0
77
1,0
47
962
1,0
15
68
8
61
7
54
0
51
3
47
6
47
7
46
0
44
1
40
7
40
0
379
354
To t a l O u t g o i n g M o b i l e V o i c e Tr a f f i c i n M i l l i o n s o f M i n u t e s ( D o m e s t i c - I n t e r n a t i o n a l )
Domestic International
54 58 59 61 61 65 65 68 67 72 73 75
2,104 1,988 1,813 1,801 1,721 1,682 1,581 1,604 1,484 1,447 1,341 1,370
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Vo
ice
Tra
ffic
in M
illio
ns
Da
ta T
raff
ic in
M
illio
ns
Mobile Voice Traffic Vs Mobile Broadband Data Traffic
Mobile Broadband Traffic (GB) Mobile Voice Traffic (minutes)
279 265 267 267 252 246 233 244 249 254 246 256 238 232 216 222
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
AVERAGE MONTHLY MINUTES PER USER(DOMESTIC+INTERNATIONAL)
◎ Since the beginning of 2019, fixed telephony subscriptions increased by 0.14%. Fixed
wired subscriptions increased by 3.9% while fixed wireless subscriptions decreased by
21%.
◎ Number of ported fixed lines increased from 530 in Q4 2018 to 987 in Q4 2019.
No. of fixed telephony subscriptions
Fixed telephony services: Subscriptions (PSTN & Wireless)
225,479End of Q4 2018
225,797End of Q4 2019
2016 2017 2018 Q4 2019
Total 233,917 234,709 225,479 225,797
% of Fixed Wired 76.26% 79.01% 84.91% 88.1%
% of Fixed Wireless 23.74% 20.99% 15.09% 11.9%
15% Penetration rate 15% Penetration rate
178 178 185 191 199
65 56 49 34 27242 234 235 225 226
18%16% 16% 15% 15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Tho
usa
nd
s
Number of fixed lines
Fixed wired Fixed wireless Total Penteration
73
%
76
%
79
%
78
.31
%
81
.53
%
82
.36
%
84
.91
%
85
.71
%
86
.34
%
87
.17
%
88
.10
%
26.6% 23.7% 21.0% 21.7% 18.5% 17.6% 15.1% 14.3% 13.7% 12.8% 11.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Distribution of fixed lines by access type
Fixed wireless(e.g. WiMax)
Fixed (Wired)
218 399
1,238
789
236 109 381
530 430 669 687
987
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
NUMBER OF ACCEPTED FIXED LINE PORTING
REQUESTS
◎ Overall, fixed telephony domestic traffic declined by 12.7% between Q4 2018
and Q4 2019.
◎ However, fixed telephony international traffic has decreased by 18.37% over the
period between Q4 2018 & Q4 2019.
◎ Average monthly outgoing domestic minutes per subscriber decreased to 129
compared to 147 minutes in Q4 2018 while average monthly international minutes
slightly decreased to 6 minutes per subscriber compared to 7 minutes in Q4 2018.
Total fixed domestic outgoingtraffic in minutes**
Fixed telephony services: Traffic (PSTN & Wireless - Minutes)
33,488,599
Q4 2018
29,234,163
Q4 2019
12.7%
* International Outgoing Minutes originated from ISDN traffic is not included in the chart above
** Revised for 2019 data
1,9
19
,42
1
1,7
48
,55
1
1,5
48
,43
6
1,5
45
,88
1
1,4
02
,89
9
1,2
99
,74
9
1,2
41
,90
4
1,2
61
,87
6
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Total Outgoing International Fixedlines Traffic
Total Outgoing International Fixedlines Traffic
36
,16
3,1
86
34
,25
1,4
90
32
,78
0,0
59
31
,55
8,9
36
30
,53
5,5
85
29
,98
5,5
57
31
,09
4,9
66
33
,48
8,5
99
30
,75
1,4
04
29
,85
8,2
14
27
,57
0,4
39
29
,23
4,1
63
Fixed Line Total Domestic Outgoing Traffic
(Minutes)
128 130 135 147 136 132 122 129
8 8 7 7 6 6 5 60
50
100
150
200
Average Outgoing Domestic & International Minutes Per Subscription
Average Domestic Traffic per User Average International Traffic per User
Pay-per-use
9.58%
Standalone
24.82%Add-on to
voice 65.60%
8.69% 91.31%
Fixed broadband (wired+wireless) Mobile broadband
◎ Broadband penetration reached 156.6% and between Q4 2018 & Q4 2019 broadband
subscription increased by 7.5%.
◎ In Q4 2019 Fixed wired broadband subscription increased by 14.3% while fixed
wireless increased by 7% compared to Q4 2018.
◎ Overall, mobile broadband subscription increased by 7%, while at the same time,
standalone broadband subscription increased by 20.8%.
No. of broadband subscriptions (End of Q4 2019)*
2,354,538156.6% Penetration rateBroadband services: Subscriptions
Mobile Broadband – Q4 2019
Proportion of broadband subscriptions by
access type – Q4 2019
1,9
78
2,4
07
2,3
73
2,0
93
2,1
42
2,2
03
2,1
89
2,3
12
2,3
58
2,3
33
2,3
55
146%171% 164%
139% 143% 147% 146%154% 157% 155% 157%
0%
50%
100 %
150 %
200 %
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Tho
usa
nd
s
Broadband Subscriptions and Penetration
Subscription
Penetration
172
178
169
194
196
182
185
184
195
198
202
205
253 359
326
318
331
407
438
442
439
472
488
534426
537495 512 526
589623 625 634
671 690738
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Tho
usa
nd
s
Tho
usa
nd
s
Broadband services subscriptions from a fixed location
(Dedicated Broadband)
Standalone mobile broadband (e.g. dongle, USB, tablet)Fixed Broadband Subscribtion (Wired & Wireless)Total
◎ At the end of Q4 2019, Data consumption stood at 187 petabyte, an
increase of around 26% compared to the same period last year.
◎ Fixed Broadband traffic increased by 39.4% over the same period last
year while mobile data consumption increased by 9.7%.
Total data traffic in GigabyteBroadband services: Data Traffic*
148,562,538
Q4 2018
186,951,119
Q4 2019
25.8%
22 24 26 26.5
183204
216 218
108117
127 130
19 19 19 1710 10 11 11
0
50
100
150
200
250
Monthly Average data consumptionper subscription (Gigabyte)
Per Subscription Per Fixed Wired Per Fixed Wireless Per Mobile Standalone Per Mobile Add-on
29 32 31 42
54 61 64 67 77 81 81 88 100 109 112
41 49 52 54 58 59 61 61 65 65 68 67 72 73 75
Quarterly data consumption (Petabyte)
Fixed Broadband Traffic (GB) Mobile Broadband Traffic (GB)
56 5662
7177 80
25 24 27 29 32 32
0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.0224 25 25 27 28 28
41 43 42 45 45 47
0
20
40
60
80
100
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4
Mill
ion
s
Traffic per technology
Fixed wired subscriptions (e.g. ADSL and fiber)
Fixed Wireless subscriptions (e.g. WiMAX)
Pay-per-use mobile broadband
Standalone mobile broadband (e.g. dongle, USB, tablet)
Add-on broadband to voice
* Fixed wired data traffic was revised for Q1, Q2 and Q3 2019
Definitions
Indicator Definition
Fixed-telephone subscriptions Fixed-telephone subscriptions refers to the sum of active number of analogue fixed-telephone lines, voice-over-IP (VoIP)subscriptions, fixed wireless local loop (WLL) subscriptions.
Prepaid mobile subscribers Prepaid mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions (ITU code i271p) Refers to the total number of mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions that use prepaid refills. These are subscriptions where, instead of paying an ongoing monthly fee, users purchase blocks of usage time. Only active subscriptions should be included (those used at least once in the last three months for making or receiving a call or carrying out a non-voice activity such as sending or reading an SMS or accessing the Internet).
Postpaid mobile subscribers Postpaid mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions Refers to the total number of mobile-cellular subscriptions where subscribers are billed after their use of mobile services, at the end of each month. The postpaid service is provided on the basis of a prior arrangement with a mobile cellular operator. Typically, the subscriber’s contract specifies a limit or allowance of minutes, text messages, etc. The subscriber will be billed at a flat rate for any usage equal to or less than that allowance. Any usage above that limit incurs extra charges. Theoretically, a subscriber in this situation has no limit on use of mobile services and, as a
consequence, unlimited credit.
Active mobile-broadband subscriptions
Active mobile-broadband subscriptions refers to the sum of standard mobile-broadband and dedicated mobile broadbandsubscriptions to the public Internet. It covers actual subscribers, not potential subscribers, even though the latter may have broadband enabled-handsets. The indicator can be further broken down into:Standard mobile-broadband subscriptions (ITU code i271mb_active): Refers to active mobile-cellular subscriptions with an advertised data speed of 256 kbit/s or greater that allow access to the greater Internet via HTTP and have been used to make a data connection using Internet protocol (IP) in the previous three months. Standard SMS and MMS messaging do not count as active Internet data connections, even if they are delivered via IP.This includes mobile subscriptions that use mobile-broadband services on a pay-per-use basis. It excludes mobilesubscriptions with a separate monthly data plan for mobile-broadband access (see Indicator 25b, Dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions).Dedicated mobile-broadband subscriptions (ITU code i271md): Refers to subscriptions to dedicated data services (over a mobile network) that allow access to the greater Internet and that are purchased separately from voice services, either as a standalone service (e.g. using a data card such as a USB modem/dongle) or as an add-on data package to voice services that requires an additional subscription. All dedicated mobile-broadband subscriptions with recurring subscription fees are included as ‘active data subscriptions’ regardless of actual use. Prepaid mobile-broadband plans require use in the last three months if there is no monthly subscription. This indicator could also include mobile WiMAX subscriptions.
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