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Quarterly Reviewrpdata.com
A quarterly review of the residential property market and the Australian economy
Released November 2011
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The September 2011 quarter has seen the residential property market continue to slow, with all capital cities
now recording a decline in home values on both a quarterly and annual basis. Over the quarter, seasonally
adjusted and raw property values across the combined capital cities of Australia fell by ‐1.3 percent. Across
most of Australia there remains limited activity by consumers and this is being reflected by a number of key
indicators which are all showing low readings: consumer sentiment (although the index has improved overthe past three months), housing and lending finance commitments, building approvals, retail trade and the
volume of home sales transacting across Australia. While the resources sector is benefiting from strong
terms of trade, many other sectors have continued to struggle. As a result of these conditions together with
the uncertain economic conditions being recorded across the Europe and United States, the Reserve Bank
saw it fit to reduce official interest rates by 25 basis points at their November board meeting with the hope
that bringing rates back to a more normal setting would spur on some additional consumer spending and
confidence.
For the remainder of 2011 we anticipate that property market conditions will remain soft, with some regions
seeing further modest falls. In saying this, we don’t subscribe to the predictions that residential housing
values are about to tank; the market is still supported by limited new housing supply, above average levels of
population growth, relatively low unemployment, wages growth above inflation and strong lending andregulatory practices around home ownership.
Although values across the residential property market have fallen by ‐3.4 percent over the past year the
performance across the capital cities has varied significantly. Across the capital city markets, value declines
have varied from a ‐1.2 percent decline in values in Sydney to a ‐9.1 percent fall in Hobart home values.
Capital city home values have become more affordable in real terms over the last 12 months. Different
sectors of the market are showing quite varied performances with the most expensive suburbs actually
recording the greatest declines in property values which are well in excess of those recorded in the more
affordable suburbs. With housing market conditions soft it appears as if vendors have not yet adjusted their
price expectations sufficiently to meet the market. The average selling time for a house has increased to 56
days from 46 days last year and on average vendors are having to discount their initial asking prices by ‐6.4percent in order to achieve a sale compared to just ‐5.8 percent during the same period last year.
The number of newly advertised properties for sale and total properties for sale are both at levels well above
average as vendors continue to bring stock to the market at a time when there are few active buyers. The
result of these conditions is the heightened levels of vendor discounting and an increased time to sell
resulting in better negotiating conditions for purchasers.
From an economic perspective, Australia is still well positioned however, conditions don’t seem as rosy as
they did at the end of last year. Consumer sentiment shows that optimists outweigh pessimists (but only
just), housing finance commitments remain at low levels as do building approvals and retail trade is very
slow. The consumer sentiment data also highlights that most consumers don’t believe conditions will
improve over the coming year(s) with the forward looking indicators also relatively weak. As a result
consumers appear nervous and cautious. On the other hand, wages are growing at a level slightly above
inflation, unemployment is sitting at 5.2 percent, commodity prices remain high and our terms of trade
remain at extremely high levels.
Overall, the third quarter of 2011 has been characterised by continuing soft conditions within the residential
property market. Australia’s economy remains relatively strong however, consumers are still cautious and
continue to pay down their debt, largely shunning borrowed debt with lending finance growth benign and
debit cards much more popular than credit cards. For the remainder of the year we are forecasting negligible
property value growth with the potential for some further falls. The market continues to favour buyers
however, buyer demand remains relatively sedate. On the other hand, limited activity by first home buyers
and restricted new housing supply is likely to result in further rental growth across select capital cities, inparticular Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.
Report Summary
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Property Market Overview 4Quarterly performance 4
Annual performance 4
Stratified Hedonic Index 4
Volumes 5
Sales by price point 5Effective supply 5
Rents and yields 6
Vendor discounting 6
Time on market 6
Capital City Performance 7Sydney 7
Melbourne 8
Brisbane 9
Adelaide 10
Perth 11Hobart 12
Darwin 13
Canberra 14
Economic Overview 15Consumer Sentiment 15
Gross Domestic Product 15
Interest Rates 15
Consumer Price Index (Inflation) 16
Components of Consumer Price Index 16
Retail Trade 16
Currency Exchange Rate 17
Unemployment Rate 17
Commodity Price Index 18
Population Growth 18
Housing Data 19Dwelling Commencements 19
First Home Buyer Finance Commitments 19
Value of Investment Finance 20
Volume of non‐refinance vs. refinance commitments 20
CPI Housing Sub categories 20
About RP Data 21
Disclaimers 22
Contents
DISCLAIMER
The information provided in this publication is current as at the publication date only. In compiling this publication, rpdata.com has
relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. This publication is supplied on the basis that while rpdata.com
believes all the information in it is deemed reliable at the publication date, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the
full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any
other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this
publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to rpdata.com for the supply of such
information.
RP Data recommends that individuals undertake their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any
decisions.
© 2011 RP Data Ltd.
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‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
Most affordable 20% Middle 60% Most expensive 20%
‐1.2%‐1.6%
‐3.4% ‐3.4% ‐3.7%‐4.4%
‐5.1%
‐6.1%
‐9.1%‐10.0%
‐8.0%
‐6.0%
‐4.0%
‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
Sydney Canberra Australian
Capitals
Adelaide Darwin Melbourne Perth Brisbane Hobart+
A n n u a l c h a n g e i n d w e l l i n g v a l u e
‐3.0%
‐1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
S ep‐ 01 S ep ‐0 2 S ep ‐0 3 S ep‐ 04 S ep‐ 05 S ep ‐0 6 S ep ‐0 7 S ep ‐0 8 S ep‐ 09 S ep‐ 10 S ep ‐1
Most affordable 20% v Middle 60% v Most expensive 20%RP Data –Rismark Stratified Hedonic Home Value Index, All Dwellings, combined cap ci ties
p.4
Property Market Overview
Capital growth remains in the red but shows improvement over the
quarter
• Since home values reached a low point in December 2008 capital city
house and unit values have increased by a total of 13.6 percent and
10.6 percent beyond the pre Global Financial Crisis (GFC) peak
recorded in February 2008.
• Since recently peaking in December 2010, capital city dwelling values
have fallen by ‐3.6 percent to September 2011.
• Over the past 12 months, capital city property values have fallen by
‐3.4 percent.
• In comparison, capital city home values increased by 8.6 percent over
the 12 months to September 2010, highlighting a marked slowdown
over the past year.
• In the month of September 2011, property values across the
combined capital cities fell by ‐0.2 percent.
• Over the quarter, units (‐0.8 percent) have recorded a superior
performance to that of houses (‐1.6 percent). This result has also
been reflected over the last year, with units (‐1.1 percent)
outperforminghouses (‐4.1 percent).
Property values havefallen in each capital city over the past year
• Over the last year, capital city market performances have varied from
a fall in values of ‐9.1 percent in Hobart to a ‐1.2 percent fall in values
in Sydney.
• In comparison to the results for the end of September 2010 where
home values were up 8.6 percent, 2011 has been a much slower year
for capital growth in every capital city market.
• Sydney (‐1.2 percent) and Canberra (‐1.6 percent) have fared
comparatively well with values down by the lowest amount over the
past 12 months.
• Over the last quarter, every capital city market has recorded aproperty value fall with Darwin (‐0.3 percent), Adelaide (‐0.7 percent)
and Sydney (‐0.8 percent) showing the most resilience.
The weak performance of the premium sector continues to weigh
down the overall market• Over the last quarter and the last year the premium residential
markethas been the weakest performing sector.
• Over the 12 months to September 2011 the broad ‘middle market’
has shown the most resilience with values falling by ‐2.8 percent. In
comparison, the premium residential market has recorded value falls
of ‐6.4 percent and the most affordable suburbs have recorded a
value fall of ‐3.2 percent.
• Over the third quarter of 2011 all three sectors of the market have
recorded value falls however, the middle and most affordable
markets have recorded falls of just ‐1.1 percent and ‐1.3 percent
respectively compared to a value fall of ‐2.1 percent within the
premiumsector.
• The most expensive markets are likely to continue to be weigheddown by poor consumer and business sentiment, global economic
uncertainty and poorly performing equities markets which are likely
to dampen demand for all housing but premium housing in
particular.
Rolling quarterly change in RP Data‐Rismark Hedonic
Home Value Index – combined capital cities, all dwellings
Capital City Performance Annual change in dwelling values – year ending September ‘11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
+ Hobart data is to August 2011
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Feb 09 May 09 Sep 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Aug 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jul 11 Nov 11
A u c t i o n v o l u m e s
W
e i g h t e d a v e r a g e c l e a r a n c e r a t e
Number of auctions Clearance rate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
J a n 0 7
A p r 0 7
J u l 0 7
O c t 0 7
J a n 0 8
M a y 0 8
A u g 0 8
N o v 0 8
F e b 0 9
M a y 0 9
S e p 0 9
D e c 0 9
M a r 1 0
J u n 1 0
O c t 1 0
J a n 1 1
A p r 1 1
J u l 1 1
O c t 1 1
M o n t h s o f s u p p l y
0
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
A ug ‐0 1 A ug ‐0 2 A ug ‐0 3 A ug ‐0 4 A ug ‐0 5 A ug ‐0 6 A ug ‐0 7 A ug ‐0 8 A ug ‐0 9 A ug ‐1 0 A ug ‐1 1
National 5 yr average
p.5
Property Market Overview
Transaction volumes levelling around 13 percent below average
• Our estimate of sales volumes show that sales activity has
stabilised over recent months with house and unit transactions
currently ‐13 percent below the five year average.
• Sales volumes have been trending lower since November 2009
after interest rates started to rise. With interest rates cut in
November and potential further rate cuts on the cards it will be
interesting to see if it results in an increase in transaction
volumes.
• We believe that sales volumes are currently at low levels due to a
number of factors namely: the 100 basis points worth of interest
rate increases experienced during 2010, housing affordability
constraintsand lower levelsof consumer confidence.
• Across the country, estimated sales volumes have remained
below average since March 2010.
• Estimated sales volumes for August 2011 are at similar to those
recorded 12 months ago.
Sales volumes – nationally
May‐01 to May‐11
Clearance ratesbelow 50 percent for 19 consecutiveweeks
• Across the combined capital cities, the success rate across properties
taken to auction is quite low with clearance rates below 50 percent
over 19 consecutive weeks to 13 November 2011.
• Clearance rates in 2011 have been well below those recorded in 2009
and 2010 when most regions of the country were experiencing growth
in propertyvalues.
• Despite the weak clearance rate there is still a large number of
properties being taken to auction. This is likely to be reflective of the
long average length of sale and high levels of discounting being
recorded across private treaty sales.• Given that the Spring Selling Season is almost complete it would seem
unlikely that week‐to‐week clearance rates will break the 50 percent
barrier for the remainder of this year.
Effective housing supply remains elevated but is starting to ease
• The effective supply of housing is simply the difference between thenumber of unique properties listed for sale and the volume of sales
expressed in months i.e. at the current rate of sale, how long would it
take to absorb all the listings in the market.
• Across Australia, the effective supply of housing was increasing sharply
in late 2010 and has continued throughout 2011 as listings mounted
and transaction volumes fell.
• The increase in effective supply levels is being driven by an increase in
stock available for sale rather than slowing sales activity with volumes
flat over recent months and at a similar level to those recorded 12
months ago.
• Nationally, the capital city effective housing supply is recorded at 5.8
months after briefly peaking at 6.5 months during the seasonal slow
down of late December / early January 2011.• Across the capital cities the effective supply varies greatly, those cities
which have recorded the smallest value falls over the last year
continue to have the lowest effective supply: Sydney (5.1 months) and
Canberra (3.6 months).
Combined capital city auction clearance rates
Feb‐09 to Nov‐11
rce: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Source: rpdata.com
Australian capital city effective housing supply*
Jan‐07 to Oct‐11
Source: rpdata.com *excludes Hobart
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
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p‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
p‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
5.3%
5.5%
$300
$320
$340
$360
$380
$400
$420
$440
$460
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i e l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐
d w e
l l i n g s
Avg rental rate all dwellingsAvg gross yield ‐ HousesAvg gross yield ‐ Units
p.6
Property Market Overview
entalgrowth and yields continueto improve
From the end of 2005 to the end of 2008, rental rates continued
to increase at a time in which, for the most part, capital gains had
been fairly sluggish.
Over the past five years median weekly rents have increased at an
average annual growth rate of 5.8 percent for houses and 6.8
percent for units.
Over the last 12 months, median weekly rents have recorded
growth of just 4.5 percent for houses and 4.4 percent for units,
below the respective five year average growth levels.
Rental rates across the combined capital cities are currently
recorded at $446/week for houses and $432/week for units.
Rental yields are also starting to improve as rental growth returns
and capital growth prospects are limited, gross rental yields are
recorded at 4.3 percent for houses and 5.0 percent for units.
With capital growth unlikely over the short term, consumers
acting cautiously and new housing supply limited, we anticipate
stronger rates of rental growth during the coming months,
particularly across Sydney, Perth and Brisbane where rental
conditions appear to be the tightest.
National rental rates and gross yieldsSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Average vendor discount – combined capital citiesSep‐06 to Sep‐11 Vendordiscounting – buyers are negotiatingharder
• Vendor discounting measures the average amount vendors have
to discount their properties from the initial list price in order to
sell their property.
• Vendor discounting has eased over September however, the rate
of discounting remainsat inflated levels.
• Across the capitals, vendor discounting is recorded at ‐6.4 percent
for houses and ‐6.1 percent for units.
• At the same time last year, vendor discounting was recordedat
‐5.8 percent for houses and ‐6.0 percent for units.
• Over the past five years the average vendor discount has been
recorded at ‐5.9 percent for houses and ‐5.6 percent for unitswhich indicates that discounting is now at above average levels.
• The current high level of vendor discounting is reflective of the
slowdown in market conditions across the county, increased stock
levels and greater competition amongst vendors for a smaller pool
of buyers.
• With the market recording value falls across each capital city and
listings at elevated levels, it is anticipated that vendor discounting
is likely to remain at above average levels.
Time on market is easing but remains at inflated levels
• The average time on market is simply the time it takes from when
a property is initially advertised for sale to when it ultimately sells.
• On a national basis houses are currently taking an average of 56days to sell and 54 days is the average selling time for a unit.
• In September 2010 it took an average of 46 days to sell a house
and 43 days for units. The results show that the average time it
takes to sell a property has increased as market conditions have
softened.
• On average, houses have taken 47 days and units 43 days to sell
over the last five years highlighting that both measures are
currently at levels well above average.
• The average time on market has increased over recent months as
capital city housing market growth performances have all slipped
into the red on an annual basis.
• Time on market and vendor discounting figures continue to
suggest that there is a disconnect between prices which vendorsare seeking and those which purchasers are prepared to pay for
the properties currently available.
Average time on market (days) – combined capital citiesSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
rce: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
rce: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
uses
its
uses
its
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House s Unit s
Median price $552,000 $458,000
12 month value growth ‐2.2% 1.0%
5 yr average annual growth 3.6% 5.2%
10 yr average annual growth 4.2% 3.6%
Average time on market 48 39
Average vendor di scount ‐6.4% ‐5.5%
Median rental rate $550 $513
Gross rental yield 4.4% 5.2%
Average hold period 9.6 7.6
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
4,575,532
1.7%
1,671,802
3.7%
4.2%
4.7%
5.2%
5.7%
6.2%
$350
$370
$390
$410
$430
$450
$470
$490
$510
$530
$550
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i e l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐ d w
e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐Houses
Avg gross yield ‐Units
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 A ug ‐0 3 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 A ug ‐0 6 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 A ug ‐0 9 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y
s a l e s v o l u m e s
Sydney 5 yr average
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Sep‐0 1 Sep‐02 Sep‐03 Sep‐04 S ep‐0 5 S ep‐0 6 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 S ep‐09 S ep‐1 0 S ep‐1 1
Combined capital cities Sydney
Sydney annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Sydney sales volumes vs. five year average
p.7
Sydney
ydneyvalues and volumes
Over the last 12 months, Sydney has experienced a fall in capital
values with house values falling by ‐2.2 percent and unit values
increased by 1.0 percent. Both recorded a superior performance
to that of the combined capital city benchmark.
Property values recorded a peak in early 2004 following
exceptional growth from 2001. Post 2004 until 2009 the city saw
virtually no growth in property values and many areas actually
recorded declines.
When adjusted for inflation, Sydney property values still remain
below their 2004 peak.
Over the last five years, sales volumes have sat at an average of
7,424/month.
Sales volumes fell significantly in 2008 as the economy slowed
and the Global Financial Crisis hit, since that time volumes
rebounded to levels above average in 2009.
Sales volumes have been trending lower since mid 2009
however, they are currently estimated to be just 2 percent below
the five year average and have remained reasonably stable over
recentmonths.Sydney’s median house price is recorded at $552,000 and the
median unit price sits at $458,000.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for a Sydney house is recorded at $550/week
and the median unit rent is at $513/week.
Over the five years to September 2011, Sydney rental rates have
increased at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent for houses
and 6.8 percent for units.
From the end of 2008 until late 2010 there had been virtually no
growth in rental rates however, over the past 12 months there
has been signs of a revival in rental markets.Over the past year, rental rates have increased by 5.9 percent for
houses and 5.4 percent for units.
Gross rental yields had been easing over much of the last two
years however, there has been some improvement over the past
year as value growth slows, they are currently recorded at 4.4
percent for houses and 5.2 percent for units.
At the same time last year, yields were recorded at 4.1 percent
for houses and 5.0 percent for units.
Tight vacancy rates and a lack of new housing supply are likely to
result in an increase in rents and yields over the short‐term.
Rental rates and gross yields, SydneySep‐06 to Sep‐11
Key Statistics
•
In comparison to the last five years and the last decade, propertyvalue growth has been below typical levels over the last year in
Sydney.
• Average vendor discount levels currently sit at ‐6.4 percent for
houses and ‐5.5 percent for units and at the same time in 2010
discount levels were recorded at ‐5.8 percent for houses and ‐5.6
percent for units.
• Sydney properties were taking longer to sell in September 2011
than they were at the same time the previous year. Houses were
taking 48 days compared to 42 days the previous year and units
took 39 days to sell in September 2011 and a year beforehand
they took an average of 36 days to sell.
• Across properties sold over the last year, vendors had owned
houses for an average of 9.6 years and unit vendors had owned
their properties for 7.6 years.
• Sydney’s population sits at almost 4.6 million persons and has
grown by 1.7 percent over the last year.
• Based on the estimated population and household projections,
Sydney dwellings currently house an average of 2.7 persons.
Sydney Key Statistics September 2011
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Property Market Overview
Source: rpdata.com
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
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Houses Unit s
Median price $485,000 $423,000
12 month value growth ‐4.9% ‐2.6%
5 yr average annual growth 8.2% 8.1%
10 yr average annual growth 7.3% 7.5%
Average time on market 52 45
Average vendor discount ‐6.4% ‐7.2%
Median rental rate $398 $363
Gross rental yield 3.8% 4.3%
Average hold period 10.1 8.4
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
4,077,036
2.1%
1,504,024
3.3%
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
$250
$270
$290
$310
$330
$350
$370
$390
$410
$430
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i e
l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐
d w
e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐Houses
Avg gross yield ‐Units
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 Au g‐ 03 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 Au g‐ 06 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 Au g‐ 09 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y s
a l e s v o l u m e s
Melbourne 5 yr average
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
S ep‐01 S ep‐02 S ep‐03 S ep‐04 S ep‐05 S ep‐06 S ep‐07 S ep‐08 S ep‐09 S ep‐10 Sep‐11
Combined capital cities Melbourne
p.8
Rental rates and gross yields, MelbourneSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Key Statistics
• Capital gains over the past 12 months have been well below both
the five and ten year average level of value growth.
• Average discount levels currently sit at ‐6.4 percent for houses and
‐7.2 percent for units, a year ago discount levels were recorded at
a lower ‐5.6 percent for both houses and units.
• Comparatively, Melbourne properties are selling at a much slower
rate than last year with houses selling on average in 52 days and
units selling after an average of 45 days. At the same time in 2010
the average time on market was recorded at 38 days for houses
and 37 days for units.
• Across properties sold over the 12 months to September 2011,
vendors had owned houses for an average of 10.1 years and unit
vendorshad owned their properties for 8.4 years.
• Melbourne’s population sits at just over 4 million persons and has
grown at 2.1 percent over the last year.• On average, Melbourne dwellings are home to 2.7 persons based
on the ratio of estimated population to the projection of
households.
Melbourne values and volumes
Over the last 12 months, Melbourne house values have fallen by
‐4.9 percent and unit values have fallen by a lower ‐2.6 percent.
Over the last 10 years house values have increased at an average
annual rate of 7.3 percent and unit values at 7.5 percent. This
result places Melbourne houses as having the second lowest
long‐term annual rate of growth amongst the capital cities. That
is despite the significant over performance recorded over 2007
and 2009/10.
Property values in Melbourne have been through several distinct
cycles over the decade having recorded strong growth between
2001 and 2004, a consolidation period between 2004 and 2006,
further strong growth in 2007, value falls in 2008 and a rebound
during 2009 and 2010.
Over the last five years, sales volumes have been recorded at an
average of 7,372/month.
Sales volumes fell significantly in 2008 as the economy slowed
but rebounded strongly in 2009.
In recent months transaction volumes have fallen and are
currently recorded at an estimated ‐8 percent below the fiveyear average.
Melbourne’s median house price is recorded at $485,000 and
the median unit price sits at $423,000.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for a Melbourne house is recorded at
$398/week and for units sits at $363/week.
Over the five years to September 2011, rents have increased at
an average annual rate of 6.2 percent for houses and 6.9 percent
for units.
Since the end of 2008 there has been fairly limited growth in
rental rates at a time when there has generally been particularlystrong growth in property values.
Over the last 12 months, rental rates have increased by 1.9
percent for houses and by 0.9 percent for units.
Although there has been some growth in rents, because
Melbourne’s housing supply has been so responsive we don’t
expect rental pressures to be as strong as in most other markets.
Gross rental yields have improved from 3.5 percent last year to
3.8 percent this year for houses and from 4.2 percent to 4.3
percent for units.
Despite the improvement, yields in Melbourne remain the
weakest amongst capital cities.
Melbourne Key Statistics September 2011
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Melbourne Property Market Overview
Melbourne sales volumes vs. five year average
Melbourne annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Source: rpdata.com
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
8/3/2019 Quarterly Review NOV11[1]
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/quarterly-review-nov111 9/22
Houses Unit s
Median price $435,000 $365,000
12 month value growth ‐7.1% ‐0.9%
5 yr average annual growth 4.0% 6.0%
10 yr average annual growth 8.5% 8.9%
Average time on market 58 67
Average vendor discount ‐8.5% ‐7.6%
Median rental rate $405 $367
Gross rental yield 4.8% 5.4%
Average hold period 8.7 6.9
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
2,043,185
2.3%
738,867
3.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
5.1%
5.3%
5.5%
$250
$270
$290
$310
$330
$350
$370
$390
$410
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i e
l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐
d w
e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐Houses
Avg gross yield ‐Units
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 Au g‐ 03 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 Au g‐ 06 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 Au g‐ 09 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y s
a l e s v o l u m e s
Brisbane 5 yr average
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
S ep‐0 1 S ep‐0 2 S ep‐ 03 S ep ‐04 S ep‐05 S ep ‐06 S ep ‐07 S ep ‐08 S ep‐09 S ep ‐10 S ep‐11
Combined capital cities Brisbane
p.9
risbane values and volumes
Over the last 12 months, value growth has been significantly
lower than the five year and ten year average levels with house
values falling by ‐7.1 percent and units by ‐0.9 percent.
Since the national property market began recording strong
growth post GFC, Brisbane has well and truly underperformed
and has recorded limitedvalue growth.
When adjusted for inflation, Brisbane property values peaked in
March 2008 and have fallen by around ‐14 percent to September
2011.
Over the last five years, sales volumes have sat at an average of
4,134/month.
The number of home sales in Brisbane were harder hit than most
other capital cities during 2008 as the GFC unravelled.
2009 saw a slight rebound in sales activity however, volumes
have been falling since mid to late 2009 and are currently at
around their lowest levels in 16 years.
Current estimated sales volumes are ‐35 percent below their five
year average levels.
Brisbane’s median house price is recorded at $435,000 and themedian unit price sits at $365,000.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for a Brisbane house is recorded at $405/week
and for units it sits at $367/week.
Over the five years to September 2011, house rents in Brisbane
have increased at an average annual rate of 4.9 percent while
unit rents have increased by 6.8 percent annually.
Since the beginning of 2009 until the end of 2010, rental rates
across Brisbane had been falling despite the fact that
construction activity has been low and value growth sluggish,rents remain slightly below their peaks.
Over the 12 months to September 2011, rental rates have
increased by 4.8 percent for houses and unit rents are up 8.4
percent.
With the rental market tight and limited new construction we
anticipateupwards pressure on rental rates to persist.
Gross rental yields were generally falling since the beginning of
2009 however, there has been some substantial recent
improvement with yields recorded at 4.8 percent for houses and
5.4 percent for units. At the same time last year they were
recorded at 4.2 percent and 4.9 percent respectively.Key Statistics
•
Brisbane’s capital gains have been well below the combinedcapital city average since the start of 2009. Compared to
Brisbane’s long‐term and medium term gains, the last 12 months
has recorded an extremely weak performance.
• Average discount levels currently sit at ‐8.5 percent for houses and
‐7.6 percent for units and at the same time in 2010 discount levels
were recorded at ‐7.3 percent for houses and ‐6.7 percent for
units.
• Houses in Brisbane are currently taking an average of 58 days to
sell and units 67 days. In comparison, 12 months prior houses
took 53 days and units 48 days to sell.
• Of those Brisbane dwellings sold over the last year vendors had on
average owned houses for 8.7 years and units for 6.9 years.
• Brisbane’s population was estimated to sit at just above 2 million
persons at June 2010 and has grown at 2.3 percent over the 12
months.
• On average, Brisbane dwellings are home to 2.8 persons based on
the ratio of estimated population to the projected number of
households.
Brisbane Key Statistics September 2011
Brisbane Property Market Overview
Rental rates and gross yields, BrisbaneSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Brisbane sales volumes vs. five year average
Brisbane annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Source: rpdata.com
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
8/3/2019 Quarterly Review NOV11[1]
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/quarterly-review-nov111 10/22
Houses Unit s
Median price $385,000 $319,000
12 month value growth ‐3.7% ‐2.6%
5 yr average annual growth 6.3% 8.1%
10 yr average annual growth 8.2% 8.9%
Average time on market 58 52
Average vendor discount ‐6.5% ‐6.5%
Median rental rate $353 $326
Gross rental yield 4.2% 4.8%
Average hold period 7.3 6.9
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
1,203,186
1.2%
484,620
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
$340
$360
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i e
l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐
d w
e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐Houses
Avg gross yield ‐ Units
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 Au g‐ 03 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 Au g‐ 06 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 Au g‐ 09 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y s
a l e s v o l u m e s
Adelaide 5 yr average
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
S ep‐01 S ep‐02 S ep‐03 S ep‐04 S ep‐05 S ep‐06 S ep‐07 Sep‐08 S ep‐09 S ep‐1 0 S ep‐11
Combined capital cities Adelaide
p.10
Adelaide values and volumes
House values have recorded average annual growth of 8.5
percent over the last decade and units values have grown at a
greater 8.9 percent annually indicating that both houses and
units have enjoyed an above average performance over the
period.
Over the last 12 months house and unit value growth has tracked
below the national average at ‐3.7 percent and ‐2.6 percent
respectively.
In inflation adjusted terms, Adelaide home values peaked in June
2010 and are currently 7.8 percent below their peak.
The last 10 years has seen periods of both strong and subdued
growth which has generally acted in concert with trends seen
nationwide.
Over the last five years, sales volumes have sat at an average of
2,067/month.
The current level of dwelling sales activity is estimated to be ‐17
percent below the five year average levels.
Sales activity across the city is currently at lower levels than
those which were recorded during the GFC.The Adelaide median house price is recorded at $385,000 and
the median unit price sits at $319,000, the most affordable of
any mainland capital city.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for an Adelaide house is recorded at $353/week
and for units the median rent sits at $326/week.
Over the five years to September 2011, house rents have
increased at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent and unit rents
have increased at a rate of 5.0 percent.
Adelaide rental rates have recorded the slowest rate of average
annual growth over the past five years of any mainland capital
city.Rental growth has been virtually non‐existent since the end of
2008.
Over the year to September 2011, house rents have increased by
0.9 percent and unit rents have increased by 4.4 percent.
Upwards pressure on rents is not intensifying at the same rate in
Adelaide as it is in other capitals.
Gross rental yields have been fairly flat with some slight
improvementduring recent times.
Rental yields are currently recorded at 4.2 percent for houses
and 4.8 percent for units.
At the same time last year, gross rental yields were recorded at
4.1 percent and 4.5 percent.
Key Statistics
• Over the last decade, Adelaide houses and units have recorded
comparatively strong levels of value growth. Over the last year,the growth in values for houses and units has been well below the
average annual growth rate over both five and ten years.
• Average discount levels are recorded at ‐6.5 percent for houses
and units. Over September 2010 discount levels were recorded at
‐5.6 percent for houses and ‐5.1 percent for units.
• Adelaide houses are taking an average of 58 days to sell and units
take 52 days in comparison, 12 months ago houses took 46 days
and units 38 days to sell.
• Of the houses which have sold within Adelaide over the year to
September 2011 the vendors had owned them for an average of
7.3 years and units had been owned for an average of 6.9 years.
• Estimates of Adelaide’s population as at the end of June 2010
show a population just over 1.2 million, increasing by 1.2 percentbetween 2009 and 2010.
• Based on the estimated population and the projected number of
households across Adelaide, the average Adelaide household is
home to 2.5 persons.
Adelaide Property Market Overview
Adelaide Key Statistics September 2011
Rental rates and gross yields, AdelaideSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Adelaide sales volumes vs. five year average
Adelaide annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Source: rpdata.com
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
8/3/2019 Quarterly Review NOV11[1]
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/quarterly-review-nov111 11/22
Houses Unit s
Median price $455,000 $386,000
12 month value growth ‐5.4% ‐3.9%
5 yr average annual growth 0.5% 1.9%
10 yr a vera ge a nnua l growth 10.6% 10.6%
Average time on market 57 58
Average vendor discount ‐6.7% ‐6.2%
Median rental rate $431 $429
Gross rental yield 4.5% 4.9%
Average hold period 7.7 7.3
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
1,696,065
2.7%
640,092
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
5.2%
5.4%
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
$340
$360
$380
$400
$420
$440
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i
e l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐ d w
e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐Houses
Avg gross yield ‐ Units
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 Au g‐ 03 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 Au g‐ 06 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 Au g‐ 09 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y s
a l e s v o l u m e s
Perth 5 yr average
‐20.0%
‐10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
S ep‐01 S ep‐02 S ep‐03 S ep‐04 S ep‐05 S ep‐06 S ep‐07 Sep‐08 S ep‐09 S ep‐1 0 S ep‐11
Combined capital cities Perth
p.11
erth values and volumes
The last decade has seen house and unit values record average
annual growth of 10.6 percent which places Perth as one of the
best performing markets over the last ten years.
Although the last decade has seen strong property value growth
across the city, over the past five years houses have recorded
average annual growth of 0.5 percent and units 1.9 percent.
Over the year to September 2011 Perth house values have fallen
by ‐5.4 percent and unit values are down by ‐3.9 percent.
Over the 10 years to June 2011 there was a period of consistent
growth between 2001 and 2004 and then a steep rise in values
between 2005 and 2007. Since that time growth in Perth
property values has been negligible.
When adjusted for inflation, Perth home values peaked in
September 2007 and are currently ‐13.4 percent below their
peak.
Over the last five years, sales volumes have sat at an average of
2,911/month.
The volume of residential property sales has been easing since
middle to late 2009.Current estimated sales volumes are ‐4 percent below the five
year average level.
The Perth median house price is recorded at $455,000 and the
median unit is recorded at $386,000.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for a Perth house is recorded at $431/week and
for units the median weeklyrent sits at $429/week.
Rental growth in Perth has been very strong over the past five
years with house rents increasing at an average annual rate of
8.7 percent and unit rents at 7.8 percent.
Over the past 12 months, house rents have increased by 10.1
percent and units by 6.8 percent.Between the beginning of 2009 and the end of 2010, rental rates
have deteriorated markedly however, over 2011 there has been
some improvement.
Over the last 12 months rental rates have increased by 8.7
percent for houses and by 7.8 percent for units.
Gross rental yields recorded a steep decline between the
beginning of 2009 and the end of 2010, despite the fact that
Perth had underperformedin terms of property value growth.
Gross rental yields are currently recorded at 4.5 percent for
houses and 4.9 percent for units compared to 3.8 percent and
4.4 percent respectivelylast year. Key Statistics
• The Perth market has been a weak performer over the last few
years however, over the long term Perth has been one of thebetter markets for capital growth in Australia largely due to the
high rate of capital gains between 2002 and 2007.
• Average discounts for houses are recorded at ‐6.7 percent and for
units average discounting levels sit at ‐6.2 percent. 12 months
previously, discount levels were recorded at ‐6.2 percent for
housesand ‐6.7 percent across the unit market.
• Perth houses took an average of 57 days to sell in September 2011
and units took 58 days to sell. In comparison, 12 months ago
housesand units took 53 and 56 days respectivelyto sell.
• Across Perth, of the houses sold over the 12 months to September
2011, vendors had on average owned these properties for 7.7
yearsand the units which sold had been owned for 7.3 years.
•
The estimated population of Perth as at the end of June 2010 wasalmost 1.7 million with the population growing by 2.7 percent
during the year.
• Based on the estimated population and the projected number of
households across Perth, the average household is home to 2.6
persons.
Perth Property Market Overview
Perth Key Statistics September 2011
Rental rates and gross yields, PerthSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Perth sales volumes vs. five year average
Perth annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Source: rpdata.com
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
8/3/2019 Quarterly Review NOV11[1]
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/quarterly-review-nov111 12/22
Houses Unit s
Median price $334,000 $262,000
12 month value growth ‐9.0% ‐10.3%
5 yr average annual growth 2.7% 4.1%
10 yr a vera ge a nnua l growth 11.7% 10.9%
Average time on market 69 62
Average vendor discount ‐6.3% ‐3.5%
Median rental rate $321 $266
Gross rental yield 5.2% 5.4%
Average hold period 7.9 6.6
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
214,705
1.1%
86,617
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
$260
$280
$300
$320
$340
$360
$380
Sep‐08 Apr‐09 Nov‐09 Jun‐10 Jan‐11 Aug‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i e l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐ d w e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐ Houses
Avg gross yield ‐ Units
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 Au g‐ 03 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 Au g‐ 06 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 Au g‐ 09 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y s
a l e s v o l u m e s
Hobart 5 yr average
‐20.0%
‐10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Au g‐0 1 Aug‐0 2 Aug‐ 03 Au g‐04 Aug‐05 Au g‐06 Au g‐07 Aug‐08 Aug‐09 Au g‐10 Aug‐11
Combined capital cities Hobart
Hobart Key Statistics September 2011
Rental rates and gross yields, HobartSep‐08 to Aug‐11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Hobart sales volumes vs. five year average
Hobart annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Source: rpdata.com
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
p.12
Hobartvalues and volumes
Over the last ten years house values have recorded average
annual growth of 11.7 percent and units have recorded annual
growth of 10.9 percent, both of which place Hobart as one of the
best performing capital city markets of the last decade. The
significant gains recorded between 2002 and 2004 are the
primaryreason for the strong long‐term performance.Over the year to August 2011 house values have fallen by ‐9.1
percent and unit values have fallen by ‐10.3 percent.
Although Hobart is the most affordable capital city market, at
one point in 2003 property values had recorded annual growth
of more than 56 percent.
Over the last five years, sales volumes have been recorded at an
average of 400/month.
Estimated transaction numbers are currently ‐15 percent below
five year average levels.
The Hobart median house price is recorded at $334,000 and the
median unit price is recorded at $262,000; the most affordable
housing prices of any capital city.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for a Hobart house is recorded at $321/week
and the median unit rent sits at $266/week, both of which are
the most affordable rental rates amongst capital city markets.
Over the last couple of years rental growth has been fairly
limited in Hobart, similar to conditions across all capital cities.
Over the last 12 months, rental rates for houses have fallen by
‐3.5 percent while unit rents have fallen by ‐6.3 percent.
Despite the fall in property values over the past 12 months there
has not been a substantial improvement in gross rental yields
with rental rates also falling over the year.
Gross rental yields were recorded at 5.2 percent for houses and
5.4 percent for units as at August 2011.
At the same time last year, gross rental yields were recorded at
4.9 percent for houses and 5.2 percent for houses.
Key Statistics
• Property value growth over the last 12 months has been wellbelow the five year and ten year average levels for houses and
units.
• Hobart houses have recorded an average discount of ‐6.3 percent
and units have seen discounts of ‐3.5 percent. 12 months previous
discount levels were recorded at ‐6.5 percent for houses and ‐5.2
percent across the unit market.
• On average houses are currently taking 69 days to sell and units
are taking 62 days, 12 months ago houses took an average of 50
days to sell and units took 45 days.
• Hobart houses sold over the year had been owned by the vendors
for an average of 7.9 years and units had been owned for 6.6
years.
•
The estimated population of Hobart at the end of June 2010 wasalmost 215,000 with the population growing by 1.1 percent during
the previous year.
• Based on the estimated population and the projected number of
households across Hobart the average household is home to 2.5
persons.
Hobart Property Market Overview
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
8/3/2019 Quarterly Review NOV11[1]
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/quarterly-review-nov111 13/22
Houses Unit s
Median price $450,000 $410,000
12 month value growth ‐3.7% ‐3.6%
5 yr average annual growth 8.9% 10.8%
10 yr a vera ge a nnua l growth 12.4% 13.3%
Average time on market 59 56
Average vendor discount ‐6.3% ‐8.5%
Median rental rate $552 $464
Gross rental yield 5.3% 5.8%
Average hold period 5.3 5.0
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
127,532
2.8%
44,817
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
$280
$320
$360
$400
$440
$480
$520
$560
$600
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v g g r o s s r e n t a l y i e
l d
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐
d w
e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐Houses
Avg gross yield ‐Units
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 Au g‐ 03 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 Au g‐ 06 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 Au g‐ 09 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y s
a l e s v o l u m e s
Darwin 5 yr average
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
S ep‐01 S ep‐02 S ep‐03 S ep ‐04 S ep‐0 5 S ep‐06 S ep‐07 S ep‐08 S ep‐09 S ep‐1 0 S ep‐11
Combined capital cities Darwin
Rental rates and gross yields, DarwinSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Darwin sales volumes vs. five year average
Source: rpdata.com
p.13
Darwin values and volumes
The last decade has seen house values record average annual
growth of 12.4 percent which was the nation’s strongest capital
city performance as was the unit market with values increasing at
an average annual rate of 13.3 percent.
Over the 12 months to September 2011 house values in Darwin
have fallen by ‐3.7 percent and unit values have fallen by ‐3.6
percent.
Since 2004 until recently, Darwin value growth had consistently
outperformed the combined capital cities.
When adjusted for inflation, Darwin home values peaked in
March 2010 and are currently ‐8.3 percent below their peak.
Over the last five years there has been an average of 254
sales/month.
Sales volumes in Darwin held up well during the GFC however,
the number of sales are now trending lower.
Estimated sales volumes are currently ‐25 percent below the five
year average.
The Darwin median house price is recorded at $450,000 and the
median unit price is recorded at $410,000.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for a Darwin house is the highest of any capital
city recorded at $552/week and unit rents sit at $464/week.
Over the past five years rental growth within Darwin has been
exceptionally high with house rents increasing at an average
annual rate of 8.8 percent and units at 9.9 percent.
Over the past 12 months, Darwin rental rates have increased by
0.8 percent for houses while unit rents have fallen by ‐2.0
percent.Rental rates across the city have been trending lower since the
end of 2008.
Darwin is yet to show signs of a real improvement in rental rates
and they remainwell below their peak.
Darwin still enjoys the nation’s highest gross rental yields
however, yields are well below their peaks recorded in late 2008
and early 2009.
Gross rental yields are currently recorded at 5.3 percent for
houses and 5.8 percent for units, still the highest of any capital
city.
At the same time last year yields were recorded at 5.0 percent
and 5.7 percent respectively.
Key Statistics
• Capital gains have been consistently high over most of the past 10
years due to a tight housing supply, high level of population
growth, low unemployment and ongoing infrastructure andresource projects.
• In recent months discounting in Darwin has been increasing with
units recording a current vendor discount of ‐8.5 percent up from
‐5.8 percent last year. House price discounting has also increased
over the last year, recorded at ‐5.1 percent last year compared to ‐
6.3 percent as at September 2011.
• Darwin houses as at September 2011 were taking an average of 59
days to sell and units were taking 56 days. 12 months previous
houses were taking an average of 49 days and units 47 days.
• Of the residential properties sold across the city over the last year,
vendors had owned their houses for an average of 5.3 years and
unit owners had held their property for 5.0 years.
• The estimated population of Darwin at the end of June 2010 was just over 127,000 with the population growing by 2.8 percent
during the previous year.
• Based on the estimated population and the projected number of
households across the city the average household is home to 2.8
persons.
Darwin Property Market Overview
Darwin Key Statistics September 2011
Darwin annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
8/3/2019 Quarterly Review NOV11[1]
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/quarterly-review-nov111 14/22
Houses Unit s
Median price $535,000 $420,000
12 month value growth 0.5% ‐9.7%
5 yr average annual growth 6.0% 3.7%
10 yr average annual growth 8.9% 8.8%
Average time on market 48 49
Average vendor discount ‐3.6% ‐3.9%
Median rental rate $503 $410
Gross rental yield 4.8% 5.6%
Average hold period 8.3 7.1
Estimated population June 2010
Population change 2009 to 2010
Household projections 2010
358,222
1.7%
135,682
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
$340
$360
$380
$400
$420
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
Sep‐06 Sep‐07 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11
A v e r a g e r e n t a l r a t e ‐ d w e l l i n g s
Avg rental rate ‐ all dwellings
Avg gross yield ‐Houses
Avg gross yield ‐Units
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Au g‐ 01 Au g‐ 02 Au g‐ 03 Au g‐ 04 Au g‐ 05 Au g‐ 06 Au g‐ 07 Au g‐ 08 Au g‐ 09 Au g‐ 10 Au g‐ 11
M o n t h l y s
a l e s v o l u m e s
Canberra 5 yr average
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
S ep‐01 S ep‐02 S ep‐03 S ep ‐04 S ep‐0 5 S ep‐06 S ep‐07 S ep‐08 S ep‐09 S ep‐1 0 S ep‐11
Combined capital cities Canberra
Rental rates and gross yields, CanberraSep‐06 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Canberra sales volumes vs. five year average
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
Canberra Key Statistics September 2011
Canberra annual capital gains vs. combined capitals
Source: rpdata.com ‐ Rismark
p.14
anberra values and volumes
The last decade has seen house values record average annual
growth of 8.8 percent and units have recorded annual growth of
an average of 8.9 percent.
Over the 12 months to September 2011 house values have
increased by 0.5 percent while unit values have recorded a
significantfall of ‐9.7 percent.
Inflation adjusted values show the peak of the market was in
June 2010 and current home values are ‐5.5 percent below their
peak.
Since 2004 the performance of Canberra’s residential property
market has tracked the performance of the combined capital
citiesclosely.
Over the past five years, Canberra has recorded an average of
755 sales each month.
Estimated sales volumes suggest that current sales activity in
Canberra is ‐20 percent below the five year average level.
As property values have recently begun to decline there has also
been a deterioration in the level of transaction activity.
The Canberra median house price is recorded at $535,000 whichpositions Canberra as having the nation’s second most expensive
capital city median house price. The median unit price is slightly
above the national median, recorded at $420,000.
entalrates and yields
The median rent for a Canberra house is recorded at $503/week
and for units weekly rents sits at $410/week.
Over the last five years rental rates have recorded average
annual growth of 5.1 percent for houses and 4.6 percent for
units.
As is the case nationwide, since the beginning of 2009 rents have
recorded limited growth.Over the 12 months to June 2011, rents have fallen by ‐0.3
percent for houses and unit rents have declined by ‐0.6 percent.
Gross rental yields have generally been softening during recent
years due to limited rental growth and improving property
values.
Gross rental yields are currently recorded at 4.8 percent for
houses and 5.6 percent for units.
At the same time last year, gross rental yields were recorded at
4.8 percent for houses and 5.1 percent for units.
Key Statistics
• Canberra has recorded solid capital growth over both the medium
and long term across the house and unit markets however, the
last 12 months has seen the market underperform.
• Canberra houses and units are recording low levels of vendor
discounting currently at ‐3.6 percent and ‐3.9 percent respectively.
12 months previous, discount levels were recorded at ‐4.2 percent
for houses and ‐7.1 percent across the unit market.
• Canberra houses are taking an average of 48 days to sell and units
are taking 49 days. At the same time in 2010 houses were taking
40 days to sell and units were taking an average of 35 days.
• Of the residential properties sold across the city over the year to
September 2011, vendors had owned their houses for an average
of 8.3 years and unit owners had held their property for 7.1 years.
• The estimated population of Canberra at the end of June 2010 was
slightly above 358,000 with the population growing by 1.7 percent
during the previous year.• Based on the estimated population and the projected number of
households across the city the average household is home to 2.6
persons.
Canberra Property Market Overview
The most recent five months of sales transactions have been modelled based on
the historic level of revision
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0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Nov‐1991 Nov‐1995 Nov‐1999 Nov‐2003 Nov‐2007 Nov‐2011
Standard variable mortgage rates 3 yr fixed mortgage rates
‐4.0
‐2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jun‐81 Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06 Jun‐11
% c h a n g e i n G D P
Quarterly change in GDP Annual Change in GDP
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
No v‐ 91 No v‐ 93 N ov ‐9 5 No v‐ 97 No v‐ 99 No v‐ 01 No v‐ 03 Nov ‐0 5 No v‐ 07 Nov ‐0 9 No v‐ 11
Consume r Se ntiment Inde x Six month rolling average
p.15
Economic Overview
Consumer sentimentrebounds over the past three months
• The monthly survey of Consumer Sentiment undertaken by Westpac
and the Melbourne Institute shows that Australian consumers are
becoming more optimistic about economic conditions.
• The Index measures views on consumers household financial situation
over the past and coming year, anticipated economic conditions over
the coming year and five years and buying conditions for majorhousehold items. When the Index is above 100 points, consumers are
more optimistic than pessimistic and when it sits below 100 points it
indicatesthere is more pessimism than optimism.
• In recent times sentiment fell sharply however, over the past three
months conditions have improved with the index increasing by 15.3
percent over this period.
• Despite the improvement, the Index is currently recorded at 103.4
points indicating consumers are only slightly more optimistic than
pessimistic.
Australia’seconomic growth bouncesback in June 2011
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the final value of all goods
and services produced in an economy over a given period. As such,
GDP is an important indicator as it shows whether an economy is
expanding or contracting.
• The latest GDP results showed a marked improvement in the
Australian economy.
• Over the March 2011 quarter, GDP fell by ‐0.9 percent however, in
the June quarter GDP rose by 1.2 percent.
• On an annual basis, the Australian economy has grown by 1.4 percent
to June 2011.• Recent RBA forecasts for GDP suggest that the Australian economy will
grow at an annual rate in excess of 3 percent from December 2011
onwards.
• The GDP data also highlighted a growing propensity for consumers to
save with Australian households saving 10.5 percent of their income,
around the highest levels since the mid 1980’s.
• Disposable income growth has slowed markedly, at June 2010 they
grew by 7.4 percent over the year compared to 2.4 percent over the
most recent 12 months.
Interest rates cut for the first time in 31 months in November
• Average standard variable mortgage rates are currently recorded at
7.55 percent and the official cash rate is set at 4.5 percent following an
interest rate cut in November.
• The average 3 yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.5 percent which implies that
most banks expect that officialrates will be cut further.
• The change in official interest rates in November was the first
adjustment in 12 months and the first cut in 31 months.
• With headline inflation well outside the RBA’s target range, the
decision to cut was based on a low inflation reading for the RBA’s
preferred underlying measures.
• Given the global economic turmoil and two speed dynamic of the
domestic economy, the RBA appears to be taking a measured
approach surrounding any decision to change rates.
• The interest rates futures market is currently pricing in 160 basis
points worth of cash rate decreases to September 2012. The market is
currently volatile and is just as likely to change substantially each day
depending on local and international news.
Australian consumer sentimentNov‐91 to Nov‐11
Source: rpdata.com, Westpac‐Melbourne Institute
Percentage change in GDP Jun‐81 to Jun‐11
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
RBA GDP growth forecastsDec‐10 to Dec‐13
Source: rpdata.com, RBA Statement on Monetary Policy November2011
Standard variable mortgage rates vs.
3 yr fixed mortgage rates
Source: rpdata.com, RBA
Dec‐10 Jun‐11 Dec‐11 Jun‐12 Dec‐12 Jun‐13 Dec‐13
End of ye ar growth 1.40% 2.75% 4.00% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.50%
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0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Sep‐01 Sep‐03 Sep‐05 Sep‐07 Sep‐09 Sep‐11
A n n u a l g r o w t h i n r e t a i l t r a d e
‐0.5%
‐0.1%
0.6%
1.2%
3.0%
3.5%
3.7%
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
5.8%
6.4%
‐ 2. 0% ‐ 1. 0% 0 .0 % 1 .0 % 2 .0 % 3 .0 % 4 .0 % 5 .0 % 6 .0 % 7 .0 %
Furnishings, household equipment and services
Recreation and culture
Communication
Clothing and footwear
Alcohol and tobacco
All groups
Health
Housing
Transport
Insurance and financial services
Education
Food and non‐alcoholic beverages
‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Sep‐97 Sep‐99 Sep‐01 Sep‐03 Sep‐05 Sep‐07 Sep‐09 Sep‐11
A n n u a l c h a n g e i n C P I ( % )
All groups
Avg of weighted median and trimmed mean
Reserve Bank's Target Range
p.16
Economic Overview
Underlying and headline inflation start to fall instigating the RBA to
cut interest rates
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI), measures the level of price inflation
within the economy.
• As at September 2011, the all groups indicator showed that annual
headline inflation increased to 3.5 percent which is well outside of the
Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) long‐term target range of 2 to 3percent.
• Other inflation indicators, which are the preferred measures by the
RBA, are the weighted median (2.3 percent) and trimmed mean (2.6
percent). Both measures are now in the middle of the RBA target
range.
• With the RBA’s preferred measures well within their target range and
headline inflation falling, inflationarypressures appear to be easing.
• Recent forecasts by the RBA included in their Statement on Monetary
Policy suggest they expect underlying inflation to remain within their
target range until at least the end of 2013.
Cost of most goods and services increasing over the year
• CPI measures the change in the price of a bundle of goods as defined
within the adjacent graph.
• Each item carries a certain weight with some items having a greater
influence on the result, these include: housing (22.3 percent), food
and non‐alcoholic beverages (16.8 percent), recreation and culture
(12.6 percent) and transport (11.6 percent).
• The September 2011 CPI release was the first time in which the new
CPI weightings (16th Series) had been used and saw some changes to
category names.
• Over the year to September 2011 CPI increased by 3.5 percent
however certain items have increased by more: food and non‐alcoholic
beverages (6.4 percent), education (5.8 percent) and insurance andfinancial services (4.5 percent).
• The costs of furnishings, household equipment and services (‐0.5
percent), recreation and culture (‐0.1 percent) and communication
(0.6 percent) either fellor showed limited change.
• Importantly, two of the three items which carry the greatest weighting
on CPI have recorded increases well above the rate of headline
inflation.
Growth in retail trade remains limited however, interest rate cuts and
Christmasmay result in some improvements late in the year
•
Over the 12 months to September 2011, retail trade has increased by just 2.3 percent, well below the rate of inflation.
• At the same time last year, retail trade had increased by 3.8 percent
over the year.
• The slowdown in retail trade is very much reflective of the cautious
consumer mindset which is supported by low levels of lending and
housing finance, falling consumer confidence and high levels of saving.
• Growth in retail trade has been strongest within two of the states
(Queensland and Western Australia) in which the housing market has
been weakest, with trade increasing by 3.4 percent and 8.0 percent
over the year respectively.
• Growth in retail trade has been weakest within South Australia (‐0.1
percent), New South Wales (0.8 percent) and Victoria and the
AustralianCapital Territory (1.7 percent)
• With consumers having little propensity to spend, it doesn’t bode well
for growth in home values as demand for houses is less likely to be
strong if demand for consumer retail goods are also weak.
• The recent cut in interest rates may result in some improvement to
retailtrade over the coming months.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)Sep‐97 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com, ABS, RBA
Annual change in components of CPIYear to September 2011
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Annual change in retail tradeSep‐01 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
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0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Qld
SA
NSW
Vic
Tas
WA
NT
ACT
Unemployment rate (%)
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
O ct‐ 81 O ct‐ 84 O ct‐ 87 O ct‐ 90 O ct‐ 93 O ct‐ 96 O ct‐ 99 O ct‐ 02 O ct‐ 05 O ct‐ 08 O ct‐ 11
U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
Unemployment Rate
Moving annual average
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
Oct‐81 Oct‐86 Oct‐91 Oct‐96 Oct‐01 Oct‐06 Oct‐11
E x c h a n g e r a t e ( $ A t o $ U S )
p.17
Economic Overview
$A back around parity with the greenback
• The Australian dollar has recently reached and gone beyond parity
with the $US.
• At the end of October 2011, $1A would buy you $1.05US.
• It hasn’t just been an improvement in the $A against the $US, $1A
currently buys 0.75 Euro and more than 0.65 Pound. In January
2009, the exchange rates were recorded at 0.50 Euro and 0.45Pound.
• The improvement in exchange rates is great news for those looking
to import products from overseas but does not bode so well for
exporters.
• The higher dollar is impacting local retailers, with many consumers
choosing to purchase goods from overseas via the internet.
• In recent times the $A has been very volatile however, this has
largely been the affect of economic forces external to Australia.
• At the time of writing the dollar is below parity with the $US
highlightingthe current market volatility.
Employmentgrowth slows to its slowest pace in almost two years
• The national unemployment rate was recorded at 5.2 percent in
October 2011, down from 5.3 percent in September.
• Over the year total employment is up by 0.9 percent which is the
slowest annual rate of growth in employment since November
2009.
• The number of unemployed persons is down by ‐1.4 percent over
the year.
• Over the past year full‐time employment growth (1.1 percent) has
eclipsed that of part‐time employment (0.3 percent).
• Participation in the workforce is currently recorded at 65.6 percent
and has remained stable for the past five months.
• A big focus of the federal budget has been to get long‐term
unemployed back into the workforce, if successful this should
increase participation rates which have only ever recorded an
historic peak of 65.9 percent.
Unemployment remains below 6 percent in every state
• Each state and territory currently has an unemployment rate which
sits below 6 percent.
• The Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory have the
nation’s lowest unemployment rates at 3.8 percent and 4.1 percent
respectively.
• Queensland has the nation’s highest unemployment rate of 5.7
percent followed by South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria
which all have an unemployment of 5.3 percent.
• The Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory have the
highest employment participation rates at 73.7 percent and 72.1
percent respectively.
• Tasmania (60.6 percent) and South Australia (63.3 percent) have
the country's lowest employment participation rates.
• Over the last 12 months the Australian Capital Territory was the
only state or territory which did not create additional jobs (‐0.2percent).
• Job creation has been greatest in Victoria (1.3 percent) and
Queensland(1.2 percent).
$A exchange rate to $USOct‐81 to Oct‐11
Source: rpdata.com, RBA
Unemployment Rate – Seasonally adjustedOct‐81 to Oct‐11
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Unemployment Rate by StateOctober 2011
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
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930
3,243
6,391
13,902
50,962
73,170
81,602
82,134
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Northern Territory
Tasmania
Australian Capital Territory
South Australia
Western Australia
Queensland
Victoria
New South Wales
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Mar‐83 Mar‐87 Mar‐91 Mar‐95 Mar‐99 Mar‐03 Mar‐07 Mar‐11
Q u a r t e r l y c h a n g e i n p o p u l a t i o n
Natural Increase Net Overseas Migration
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Sep‐83 Sep‐87 Sep‐91 Sep‐95 Sep‐99 Sep‐03 Sep‐07 Sep‐11
C o m m o d i t y p r i c e i n d
e x ( S D R )
p.18
Economic Overview
Commodity prices may have peaked
• Commodity prices incorporating: rural, non‐rural and base metals all
recorded a big slump during the GFC.
• Since commodity prices reached their recent low in early to mid
2009, prices have rebounded strongly.
• After returning to an historic high, commodity prices have now fallen
by ‐3.2 percent over the most recent two months.
• Much of the increase in commodity prices recently is due to
increases in the prices of export thermal coal and iron ore prices.
• The prices of base metals and most rural commodities declined over
the most recent month.
• Looking at base metals specifically, they recorded the greatest peak
to trough value decline of ‐65 percent of any commodity index
between May 2007 and February 2009.
• Although demand for Australian resources is likely to remain strong
there is some speculation that our terms of trade may have peaked,
if this is so commodity prices may ease further over the coming
months.
Population growth continues to slow but remains well above long‐
term averages
• In raw number terms, Australia’s population grew by 312,355
persons over the year to March 2011 and the result indicates that
the rate of population growth is continuing to slow after peaking at
462,000 persons over the year to March 2009.
• The previously high rate of population growth was largely fuelled by
the significantincrease in net overseas migration to the country.
• Over the last year net migration has contributed an additional
167,000 persons to the Australian population however, the
slowdown in population growth is largely the result of a decline in
net migrant numbers.• The Federal Government had cut skilled migration to around 170,000
persons annually (which is still well above long‐term average levels of
120,000 persons annually) however, in the most recent Budget the
Government increased the skilled migrant intake by a further 16,000
persons.
• Despite the cut to migration numbers, the rate of natural increase is
at heightened levels; over the year to March 2011 almost 145,000
more children were born than persons passed away.
New South Wales recording the greatest population increase in raw
numbers while Western Australia is the fastest growing state
• On an annual basis and in raw number terms, New South Wales has
recorded the greatest increase in population over the 12 months toMarch 2011.
• In terms of raw number population growth, the population of New
South Wales increased by more than 82,000 persons over the year,
greater than the 81,000 persons in Victoria and 73,000 persons in
Queensland.
• In percentage terms Western Australia still leads the way with the
population increasing at a rate of 2.2 percent followed by 1.8 percent
growth in the Australian Capital Territory. Nationally, the population
has grown at a rate of 1.4 percent over the last year, its slowest
annual growth rate since September 2005.
• Fundamentally, an increasing population fuels demand for housing.
With more children being born and an above average number of
migrants moving to Australia, a greater number of dwellings need tobe built in order to cater to this demand.
• The vast majority of population growth is occurring in the major
population centres such as Sydney, Melbourne and to a lesser degree
Brisbane and Perth. This growth results in additional competition for
housing and essential services within these regions.
Quarterly population growthMar‐83 to Mar‐11
Annual population growth by stateYear to March 2010
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Commodity price index Jul‐83 to Jul‐11
Source: rpdata.com, RBA
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Sep‐01 Sep‐03 Sep‐05 Sep‐07 Sep‐09 Sep‐11
% o f F i r s t H o m e B u y e r H o m e L o a n s
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Jun‐86 Jun‐91 Jun‐96 Jun‐01 Jun‐06 Jun‐11
Total quar terly dwelling commencements
Quarterly change in population growth
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Jun‐01 Jun‐03 Jun‐05 Jun‐07 Jun‐09 Jun‐11 N u m b e r o f c o m m e n c e m e n t s o v e r q u a r t e r
Quarter
Pr iva te house s 12 m onth a ve ra ge Pr iva te uni ts 12 m onth a ver ag e
p.19
Housing Data
New housing supply shows a short lived improvement
• Although Australia’s population has been growing strongly and has
recently been at record levels, dwelling commencements have not
been sufficient to cater to increasing demand through an increase
in population.
• Dwelling commencements have still not returned to those levels
recorded between 2002 and 2003.
• The data shows that the number of commencements has fallen by
‐18.6 percent over the year and commencements have fallen by
‐4.7 percent over the last quarter.
• More recent building approvals data has shown further weakness
between June and September.
• This result suggests that commencements will trend lower over the
next quarter.
• In the June 2011 quarter there were 22,709 commencements of
private houses and 13,580 commencements of private units.
• Compared to 12 months previous, private sector house
commencements had fallen by ‐15.5 percent for the quarter and
unit commencementswere up 3.1 percent.
Theimbalancebetween housing demand and supply persists
• The demand / supply imbalance is highlighted by many reports from
a number of Government departments and private institutions.
With fewer dwellings being constructed, the supply shortage will
continue to be exacerbated. It is likely the shortage of housing will
worsen as the population grows further and required dwelling
approval and commencement targets continue to go unfulfilled.
• Despite the fact that migration is decreasing, the current level of
population growth remains well above long term averages which
indicates that in order to cater for this demand the country will be
required to construct an above average volume of new homes.• The adjacent graph highlights that although population growth has
taken off in recent years the number of new dwelling
commencements has well and truly been unable to keep pace.
• With population growth now slowing, it will likely be the case that
housing demand and supply start to once again converge,
particularly in markets such as Victoria where housing construction
has been much more prevalent.
First home buyers remain on the sidelines
• First home buyer activity has weakened markedly since peaking at28.5 percent of the owner occupier market in May 2009.
• In September 2011, first home buyers accounted for 16.4 percent
of all owner occupier commitments, the highest proportion since
May 2010 (16.5 percent).
• In both volume terms and percentage of owner occupier sales, first
home buyer activity is well below the five year average
(representedin red).
• The decline in first home buyer activity was predictable given that
the Federal Government was offering incentives during 2008 and
2009 at the same time in which interest rates were at their lowest
levels in almost 50 years. These conditions attracted many first
time buyers into the housing market.
• Over the year, first home buyer commitments are up by 11.6percent.
• Although the number of commitments have improved they remain
at low levels. With interest rates having been cut in November we
may see an improvement in first home buyer volumes in the coming
months.
Dwelling commencements houses vs. units (private sector) Jun‐01 to Jun‐11
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Dwelling commencements vs. population growth Jun‐86 to Jun‐11
First home buyer finance commitmentsProportion of FHB commitments vs. total owner occupier commitments
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
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1.8%
2.3%
3.5%
4.2%
4.6%
5.2%
6.0%
8.6%
10.1%
12.5%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
New dwelling purchase by owner‐occupiers
Maintenance and repair of the dwelling
Other housing
Housing
Rents
Property rates and charges
Gas and other household fueld
Water and sewerage
Utilities
Electricity
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
S ep‐9 3 Sep‐ 95 Sep‐ 97 Sep‐9 9 S ep‐ 01 Sep‐ 03 Sep‐0 5 S ep‐0 7 Sep‐ 09 Sep‐ 11
F i n a n c e c o m m i t m e n t s
Refinances
Total excluding refinances
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Sep‐01 Sep‐03 Sep‐05 Sep‐07 Sep‐09 Sep‐11
V a l u e o f C o m m i t m e n t s ( $ b i l l i o n )
Investment 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Investment)
p.20
Housing data
Investor activity improves but remains relatively low
• With property values having fallen over each capital city in the past
12 months, investment purchases have also subsided.
• Clearly, many of the investors active in the market over recent times
have been focusing on capital gains rather than rental return. With
the prospect of significant capital gains limited for the meantime,
many investors are either inactive or looking at other investmentvehicles.
• In September 2011 the total value of investor finance housing
commitments was recorded at $6.5 billion, which was well down
from the $7.3 billion peak during May 2010. Interestingly, the total
value of investment finance commitments peaked at the top of the
market in terms of capital growth.
• The $6.5 billion of investor finance equates to almost 31 percent of
the value of all finance commitments over the month, which remains
below the ten year average of one third.
• Over the past 12 months, the total value of investor finance
commitmentshas fallen by ‐1.3 percent, highlighting their inactivity.
Owner occupier finance commitments increase from a low base over
recent months
• In September 2011, the total number of owner occupier loan
commitments was up 2.2 percent over the month and compared to
September 2010, volumes were up by 7.6 percent.
• Looking at the components of the data it is clear most market
demand is within the established homes sector of the market.
Commitments for the construction of new dwellings were down ‐1.1
percent for the year, commitments for the purchase of new dwellings
were up 0.4 percent for the year and loan commitments for the
purchase of established dwellings increased by 9.0 percent for the
year.
• Almost 35 percent of all finance commitments over the month were
for refinances with the remaining 65 percent non‐refinance loan
commitments.
• Over the year, refinance commitments have increased by 25.8
percent while non‐refinance commitments have fallen by ‐0.2
percent.
• The strong level of refinance activity is reflective of the current high
levels of competition within the home loan market.
Water, electricityand utilities increase sharply
• Each component of CPI is broken down into sub categories which
influence the overall performance.
• Over the past year housing costs have increased by 4.2 percent and
all housing sub categories have increased with the largest occurring
for: electricity (12.5 percent), utilities (10.1 percent), water and
sewerage (8.6 percent) and gas and other household fuels (6.0
percent).
• Although housing costs have increased over the year, new dwelling
purchase by owner occupier costs (1.8 percent) have recorded the
smallest increase of any housing sub category.
• Rental costs are beginning to rise, up 4.6 percent over the year
according to the CPI data.
• Over the last ten years water and sewerage costs have increased at
an average annual rate of 7.8 percent, electricity costs haveincreased at an average annual rate of 7.2 percent and utilities have
increased by 7.1 percent annually.
• By comparison: new dwelling purchase by owner occupiers costs
have increased by 3.8 percent annually over the same period and
rents have increased by 4.1 percent annually.
Total value of investment finance commitmentsSep‐01 to Sep‐11
Owner occupier refinance vs. non‐refinance commitmentsSep‐93 to Sep‐11
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
Annual change in Housing CPI sub categoriesYear to September 2011
Source: rpdata.com, ABS
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About RP Data
RP Data is 100% owned by CoreLogic and is the number one provider of property information, analytics and risk
management services in Australia and New Zealand. Through its expansive database comprising 150 million property
records, it attracts a strong and loyal customer base ranging from real estate agents, finance and banking organisations,
government and consumers. RP Data combines public, contributory and propriety data to develop decision‐making
analytics, coupled with its business services that bring insight and transparency to property markets. Backed by 30
years of business service history, RP Data is the holder of the country’s largest residential and commercial property
database, providing an excellent platform to electronically value every single property in Australia on a weekly basis
with an average of 30 million valuations being generated each month. Across Australia and New Zealand, RP Data
employs a 350‐strong team of professional staff in ten locations. Recognised as the industry leader and an established
player in the mortgage industry, the RP Data group revenue result for FY10 was $58 million.
Our acquisitions of the Valex Group (made up of Valuation Exchange and Megaw & Hogg National Valuers) and
Sandstone’s VMS division has allowed us to expand this role further. By combining our leading databases and analytics
with existing property valuation management processes, platforms and a leading valuation firm, we’re able to develop
more efficient valuation solutions while reducing the risks associated with mortgage lending.The name RP Data is synonymous with the property and commercial markets. We have forged a strong reputation as
leaders in the provision of comprehensive ‘real‐time’ data that has proven to cut costs, increase productivity and
deliver a real and rapid return on investment.
Used by thousands of corporations and consumers seeking property information, RP Data is proud to boast the Reserve
Bank of Australia as one of our key customers along with many multi‐national corporations, financial institutions, real
estate professionals, developers, investors and more recently, the broader consumer market through our user‐friendly
consumer brand – myrpdata.com
Through our five‐star property information services, we are able to ensure that the quality of our data and extended
information services gives our customers the confidence to make sound and well‐researched decisions about property.Some of these innovations include the award‐winning CommBank Property Guide and rp.mobile pro applications for
the Apple iPhone, as well as the patented rp.lister application for the Apple iPad, all of which offer users mobile access
to the data they need to make informed decisions when buying, selling or listing property.
As the pioneers of online property information, we are at the forefront of innovation through continual investment in
emerging state‐of‐the‐art technologies which are user‐friendly and cost‐effective for customers at all levels.
At RP Data, we believe that our people are our greatest asset. We are proud to boast that through our ten combined
offices in Australia and New Zealand, our 400‐strong team is well‐regarded for its ability to deliver a superior and
technologically sound service.
We are also proud of the strong leadership at RP Data. Through such leadership, we are able continue to evolve ourservices so they reflect market opportunities with a positive flow‐on effect for your business.
Our key value to our clients lies in the delivery of vast and accurate property information and analytics. Whether our
clients need to increase listings to sell more, manage their risk portfolio effectively, market to current and future clients
who are transacting in property, or simply streamline the way they do business, RP Data has the solution.
It's not just data, it's RP Data.
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Disclaimers
Disclaimers
In compiling this publication, RP Data has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on
the basis that while the RP Data believes all the information in it is deemed reliable at the time of publication, it does not warrant its
accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage
sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or anypart of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to RP Data
for the supply of such information.
Queensland Data
© The State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management) 2011. Based on data provided with the permission of
the Department of Natural Resources and Mines: [QVAS 2011)]. The Department of Environment and Resource Management makes no
representations or warranties about accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of the data for any particular purpose and disclaims all
responsibility and all liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for all expenses, losses and damages (including indirect or
consequential damage) and costs which might be incurred as a result of the data being inaccurate or incomplete in any way and for any
reason.
South Australian Data
2011 Copyright in this information belongs to the South Australian Government and the South Australian Government does not accept any
responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information.
New South Wales Data
Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“ LPI”). RP Data is authorised as a
Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.
Victorian Data
To the extent that this report has been developed using information owned by the State of Victoria, the State of Victoria owns the copyright
in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the
State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that
the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.
Western Australian Data
Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2011) trading as
Landgate.
Australian Capital Territory Data
The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical,
microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written
permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT
2601.
Tasmanian Data
This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the
permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:
• give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and• do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the
data.
Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au