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REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015 NOVEMBER 6, 2015
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Page 1: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015 NOVEMBER 6, 2015

Page 2: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

2

149 180

150 168

234

Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Revenues (USD m)

Major highlights from Q3 2015

+39% Record quarterly revenues of USD 234m, up

39% compared to Q2 2015 All time high quarterly sales of 361 MW

demonstrating REC’s sustainable growth Significant sales volumes of 207 MW to U.S.

based on signed major long-term supply agreements, up 59% compared to Q2 2015

Increased sales volumes in APAC: 45 MW, up 164% compared to Q3 2014

Strengthened business in Southeast Asia also as a turnkey solutions provider, demonstrated by two ongoing commercial installations in Singapore with new TwinPeak panels

Increased sales in Europe to 82 MW despite slow markets, up 55% compared to Q2 2015

REC is increasing its footprint in Middle East and Africa by recently signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Orascom in Egypt

Page 3: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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44.1

59 65 67

2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

Global solar module demand expected to increase by over 33% in 2015

Driven mainly by growth in U.S. (~30% from 2014) and China (~40%), global module installations in 2015 are expected to reach 59 GW – an increase of 33% compared to 2014

REC expects annual global module installations to reach around 65 GW in 2016, an increase of 10% from 2015

By 2017, demand is forecast to increase by 52% compared to 2014

Asia (in particular China, Japan and India) continues to be global leader with over 60% market share

U.S. is forecasted to hit second place in 2016 but might decline in 2017 if ITC cuts are confirmed

Global module installations (GW)

+33% +10%

+52%

Source: IHS 2015, REC forecast

Page 4: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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REC regional sales split versus solar industry – Global

Source: IHS 2015, REC

REC

Geographical sales split

Solar market

53% 53%39%

20% 23%

16% 21%39%

49%57%

22%20% 14%

14%8%

8% 7% 8%17% 12%

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014

15% 11%

30% 28%

18% 15%

22% 29%

11% 14%

2016E

1% 2%

2015E

1% 3%

China Africa Middle East Europe APAC Japan Americas

Page 5: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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REC sales and market development – Europe

REC expects more conservative market developments for 2015/2016 at ~7 GW due to slower markets mainly in Germany and UK

From 2017, REC expects stronger residential and commercial markets due to storage opportunities – 8 GW in 2017, 10 GW in 2018

Recently announced plans in UK to cut generation tariffs by 87% as of January 1, 2016 are causing uncertainties

− REC hopes that the government‘s final conclusion will be more considerate to protect solar as an innovative industry

− In case of confirmed cuts, REC expects the C&I rooftop segment to be less impacted and EPC business to be able to switch from utility to commercial installations

REC is increasing its footprint in MEA through signing strong partnerships, e.g. O Capital, a fully owned subsidiary of OTMT

Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW Source: IHS 2015

82

53

89

139

Q3 2015 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q1 2015

112

Q3 2014

2017E

7.4

1.4

4.1

2018E

8.5

1.6

4.7

2.1

2014

7.5

2.6

3.2

1.7 1.9

2016E

7.3

1.0

4.7

1.7

2015E

8.9

3.1

3.7

2.1

Utility Commercial Residential incl. off-grid

REC sales development in Europe (MW)

Annual module installations in Europe (GW)

Page 6: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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Driver for solar in Africa is access to electricity

Source: IEA, Africa Energy Outlook, 2014

REC will seek to penetrate new markets in Africa by setting up new regional sales forces

620m people do not have access to electricity

Sub-Sahara, by 2040: − Economy: x4 − Population: x2 (1.75b people) − Energy demand: +80% (385

GW). Half of new capacity to be renewable energy

− Total annual power investments: USD 46b (half electricity generation)

− 950m people gain access to electricity (70% of those living in rural area by mini-grid or off-grid system)

− By 2040: 530m people still with NO access to electricity

Page 7: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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REC country sales split vs. solar industry – Europe

Source: IHS 2015, REC

7%

2016E

51%

10%

23%

16%

2015E

34%

45%

14%

Percentage of regional MW sales in Europe

REC Solar market

16% 13% 15% 18% 11%

55%

72%

67%

28%

51%

28%17%

50%

29%

9%11%

Q3 2015 Q2 2015

4%

Q 1 2015

2%

Q 4 2014

4%

Q3 2014

1%

Other UK Benelux Germany

EU Prosun requested on September 4, 2015 an expiry review of the current MIP measures Even with no MIP in place after December 7, 2015, REC expects AD tariff to be in place In general, REC appreciates open and fair market conditions

Page 8: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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7.84.63.9

2.32.01.7

2.21.71.3

1.7

1.11.0

4.03.2

2.6

3.1

1.2

Residential incl. off-grid

REC sales and market development – U.S.

The U.S. market is expected to grow by over 60% from 2015 to year 2016

In 2017, the market for utility and large commercial segments will slow down if ITC cuts are confirmed

Stable progress for residential and small/mid-scale commercial expected

REC has strengthened its position in the U.S. through several long-term supply agreements

Nearly 60% of REC’s total sales in Q3 2015 are to the U.S. Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW

Source: GTM 2015

207

130

90

5534

Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014

REC sales development in the U.S. (MW)

+64%

2019

8.5

2018

6.9

2017

5.6

2016

12.6

2014

6.1

2015

7.7 2.0

Utility Commercial

Annual module installations in the U.S. (GW)

Page 9: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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Impact of two potential U.S. ITC scenarios

5 year ITC extension Expiration per current policy

Source: BNEF and SEIA

30% personal and business tax credits step down to 0% and 10% respectively for projects commissioned in 2017 onwards

U.S. adds 54 GW between 2015 and 2022

ITC is extended to year-end of 2021 Timing of extension is summer 2016 U.S. adds 76 GW between 2015 and 2022

23

4 4

8

12 3 3 3 3

1

1 2

2

2

2 2 2 2 3

1

1

1

11

2

1

1 22

2 3

1

0

22E

8

21E

7

20E

7

19E

6

18E

5

17E

3

16E

11

15

7

14

6

13

5

12

3

1

11

2

Utility Residential Commercial

U.S. solar PV build GW

23

4 45

4 4 4 5 5

1

1 2

2 23

3 44

2

1

1

1

11

1 22

23

3

4

1

50

22E

11

21E

12

20E

11

19E

10

18E

9

17E

9

16E

9

15

7

14

6

13

5

12

3

1

11

2

U.S. solar PV build GW

Utility Residential Commercial

Page 10: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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REC sales and market development – Japan

Japan will be the second largest market in 2015, with forecast to install 10.5 GW

Mega-solar installations (>1 MW) expected at around 4.6 GW in 2015

Commercial installations with 10-50 kW expected at 3.7 GW in 2015

Although new FiT for residential systems reduced by 5.4%, continually declining system prices can maintain project ROI – residential installations expected relative stable at around 1 GW

On a long-term perspective, the government intends to develop solar generation as an energy source at a measured speed

Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW Source: IHS 2015

2932

47

Q3 2015 Q2 2015

33

Q1 2015 Q4 2014

50

Q3 2014

REC sales development in Japan (MW)

0.8

1.1 2015E

0.9

8.5

10.5

2019E

7.5

0.9

5.7

0.9

2018E

8.0

1.0

6.1

0.9

2017E

8.8

1.1

6.8

0.9

2016E

9.5

1.2

7.4

2014

10.0

1.0

8.1

1.0

Utility Residential incl. off-grid Commercial

Annual module installations in Japan (GW)

Page 11: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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REC country sales split vs. solar industry – APAC

Source: IHS 2015, REC

REC increased sales from 17 MW in Q3 2014 to 45 MW in Q3 2015

APAC is a very opportunistic region, driven by political regulations, such as those in Thailand

REC secured supply agreements in Thailand of 34 MW in Q3 2015 for utility scale projects as part of a new governmental program 9% 7%

5%

78%75%4%

5%

13%

63%

9%

51%

26%

56%

7% 8%

7%2%

38%

6%

0%0%

0%0%

0%

4%2%

2%

19%

Q3 2015

1%

Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014

3%

Q3 2014

Australia Korea, Rep of Thailand Other India Philippines

6%

4%

2016E

15%

11%

18%

13%

2015E

38%

19%

4%

51%

10%

11%

REC Solar market

Page 12: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

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2015: Completed CAPEX expanding capacity by 300 MW 2016: Further increase of total capacity to 1.7 GW

525 647 722 820 955 1,200

1,700

3,500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total REC Capacity (MW)

Beyond 2016: Explore all options for further sustainable growth

Page 13: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

13

REC Strategy Outlook 2016

Continue capacity expansion up to 1.7 GW by end of 2016

Further expand production capacity for REC’s new award-winning product, TwinPeak

Strengthen REC’s global position to further balance market developments

Increase REC’s position in emerging markets by providing high-end turnkey solutions and know-how transfer

Leverage on solar’s momentum resulting from UN Climate Change conference, COP21

Page 14: REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015portals.recgroup.com/Documents/Press Releases/Global/REC Q3 201… · Q2 2015 Q3 2015 4% . Q 1 2015 2% . Q 4 2014 4% . Q3 2014 Germany . UK . Benelux

14

To limit temperature increase to 2ºC compared to pre-industrial levels, a significant upscaling of low-carbon energy supply is required

REC expects a strong agreement at UN Climate Change conference, COP21, based on submitted ambitious national targets in advance:

− USA: Generating 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 (2014: 13%)

− EU: Share of renewables in the electricity mix at least 45% by 2030 (2014: 21%)

− Japan: Renewables within electricity mix ~22-24% by 2030, solar targeted at ~7.0%

− India: about 40% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030

A strong agreement will open a bright long-term perspective for solar, likely above actual forecasts

Strong commitment at COP21 and higher push for solar expected

~15%

25-30%

60%

90-95%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2030 2050 2100

Low

-car

bon

ener

gy s

hare

of p

rimar

y en

ergy

Associated required upscaling of low-carbon energy supply

Source: IPCC Synthesis Report 2014


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