REC’S SOLAR MARKET INSIGHT Q3 2015 NOVEMBER 6, 2015
2
149 180
150 168
234
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Revenues (USD m)
Major highlights from Q3 2015
+39% Record quarterly revenues of USD 234m, up
39% compared to Q2 2015 All time high quarterly sales of 361 MW
demonstrating REC’s sustainable growth Significant sales volumes of 207 MW to U.S.
based on signed major long-term supply agreements, up 59% compared to Q2 2015
Increased sales volumes in APAC: 45 MW, up 164% compared to Q3 2014
Strengthened business in Southeast Asia also as a turnkey solutions provider, demonstrated by two ongoing commercial installations in Singapore with new TwinPeak panels
Increased sales in Europe to 82 MW despite slow markets, up 55% compared to Q2 2015
REC is increasing its footprint in Middle East and Africa by recently signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Orascom in Egypt
3
44.1
59 65 67
2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
Global solar module demand expected to increase by over 33% in 2015
Driven mainly by growth in U.S. (~30% from 2014) and China (~40%), global module installations in 2015 are expected to reach 59 GW – an increase of 33% compared to 2014
REC expects annual global module installations to reach around 65 GW in 2016, an increase of 10% from 2015
By 2017, demand is forecast to increase by 52% compared to 2014
Asia (in particular China, Japan and India) continues to be global leader with over 60% market share
U.S. is forecasted to hit second place in 2016 but might decline in 2017 if ITC cuts are confirmed
Global module installations (GW)
+33% +10%
+52%
Source: IHS 2015, REC forecast
4
REC regional sales split versus solar industry – Global
Source: IHS 2015, REC
REC
Geographical sales split
Solar market
53% 53%39%
20% 23%
16% 21%39%
49%57%
22%20% 14%
14%8%
8% 7% 8%17% 12%
Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014
15% 11%
30% 28%
18% 15%
22% 29%
11% 14%
2016E
1% 2%
2015E
1% 3%
China Africa Middle East Europe APAC Japan Americas
5
REC sales and market development – Europe
REC expects more conservative market developments for 2015/2016 at ~7 GW due to slower markets mainly in Germany and UK
From 2017, REC expects stronger residential and commercial markets due to storage opportunities – 8 GW in 2017, 10 GW in 2018
Recently announced plans in UK to cut generation tariffs by 87% as of January 1, 2016 are causing uncertainties
− REC hopes that the government‘s final conclusion will be more considerate to protect solar as an innovative industry
− In case of confirmed cuts, REC expects the C&I rooftop segment to be less impacted and EPC business to be able to switch from utility to commercial installations
REC is increasing its footprint in MEA through signing strong partnerships, e.g. O Capital, a fully owned subsidiary of OTMT
Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW Source: IHS 2015
82
53
89
139
Q3 2015 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q1 2015
112
Q3 2014
2017E
7.4
1.4
4.1
2018E
8.5
1.6
4.7
2.1
2014
7.5
2.6
3.2
1.7 1.9
2016E
7.3
1.0
4.7
1.7
2015E
8.9
3.1
3.7
2.1
Utility Commercial Residential incl. off-grid
REC sales development in Europe (MW)
Annual module installations in Europe (GW)
6
Driver for solar in Africa is access to electricity
Source: IEA, Africa Energy Outlook, 2014
REC will seek to penetrate new markets in Africa by setting up new regional sales forces
620m people do not have access to electricity
Sub-Sahara, by 2040: − Economy: x4 − Population: x2 (1.75b people) − Energy demand: +80% (385
GW). Half of new capacity to be renewable energy
− Total annual power investments: USD 46b (half electricity generation)
− 950m people gain access to electricity (70% of those living in rural area by mini-grid or off-grid system)
− By 2040: 530m people still with NO access to electricity
7
REC country sales split vs. solar industry – Europe
Source: IHS 2015, REC
7%
2016E
51%
10%
23%
16%
2015E
34%
45%
14%
Percentage of regional MW sales in Europe
REC Solar market
16% 13% 15% 18% 11%
55%
72%
67%
28%
51%
28%17%
50%
29%
9%11%
Q3 2015 Q2 2015
4%
Q 1 2015
2%
Q 4 2014
4%
Q3 2014
1%
Other UK Benelux Germany
EU Prosun requested on September 4, 2015 an expiry review of the current MIP measures Even with no MIP in place after December 7, 2015, REC expects AD tariff to be in place In general, REC appreciates open and fair market conditions
8
7.84.63.9
2.32.01.7
2.21.71.3
1.7
1.11.0
4.03.2
2.6
3.1
1.2
Residential incl. off-grid
REC sales and market development – U.S.
The U.S. market is expected to grow by over 60% from 2015 to year 2016
In 2017, the market for utility and large commercial segments will slow down if ITC cuts are confirmed
Stable progress for residential and small/mid-scale commercial expected
REC has strengthened its position in the U.S. through several long-term supply agreements
Nearly 60% of REC’s total sales in Q3 2015 are to the U.S. Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW
Source: GTM 2015
207
130
90
5534
Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014
REC sales development in the U.S. (MW)
+64%
2019
8.5
2018
6.9
2017
5.6
2016
12.6
2014
6.1
2015
7.7 2.0
Utility Commercial
Annual module installations in the U.S. (GW)
9
Impact of two potential U.S. ITC scenarios
5 year ITC extension Expiration per current policy
Source: BNEF and SEIA
30% personal and business tax credits step down to 0% and 10% respectively for projects commissioned in 2017 onwards
U.S. adds 54 GW between 2015 and 2022
ITC is extended to year-end of 2021 Timing of extension is summer 2016 U.S. adds 76 GW between 2015 and 2022
23
4 4
8
12 3 3 3 3
1
1 2
2
2
2 2 2 2 3
1
1
1
11
2
1
1 22
2 3
1
0
22E
8
21E
7
20E
7
19E
6
18E
5
17E
3
16E
11
15
7
14
6
13
5
12
3
1
11
2
Utility Residential Commercial
U.S. solar PV build GW
23
4 45
4 4 4 5 5
1
1 2
2 23
3 44
2
1
1
1
11
1 22
23
3
4
1
50
22E
11
21E
12
20E
11
19E
10
18E
9
17E
9
16E
9
15
7
14
6
13
5
12
3
1
11
2
U.S. solar PV build GW
Utility Residential Commercial
10
REC sales and market development – Japan
Japan will be the second largest market in 2015, with forecast to install 10.5 GW
Mega-solar installations (>1 MW) expected at around 4.6 GW in 2015
Commercial installations with 10-50 kW expected at 3.7 GW in 2015
Although new FiT for residential systems reduced by 5.4%, continually declining system prices can maintain project ROI – residential installations expected relative stable at around 1 GW
On a long-term perspective, the government intends to develop solar generation as an energy source at a measured speed
Residential: <10 kW, Commercial: 10 kW–5 MW, Utility: >5 MW Source: IHS 2015
2932
47
Q3 2015 Q2 2015
33
Q1 2015 Q4 2014
50
Q3 2014
REC sales development in Japan (MW)
0.8
1.1 2015E
0.9
8.5
10.5
2019E
7.5
0.9
5.7
0.9
2018E
8.0
1.0
6.1
0.9
2017E
8.8
1.1
6.8
0.9
2016E
9.5
1.2
7.4
2014
10.0
1.0
8.1
1.0
Utility Residential incl. off-grid Commercial
Annual module installations in Japan (GW)
11
REC country sales split vs. solar industry – APAC
Source: IHS 2015, REC
REC increased sales from 17 MW in Q3 2014 to 45 MW in Q3 2015
APAC is a very opportunistic region, driven by political regulations, such as those in Thailand
REC secured supply agreements in Thailand of 34 MW in Q3 2015 for utility scale projects as part of a new governmental program 9% 7%
5%
78%75%4%
5%
13%
63%
9%
51%
26%
56%
7% 8%
7%2%
38%
6%
0%0%
0%0%
0%
4%2%
2%
19%
Q3 2015
1%
Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014
3%
Q3 2014
Australia Korea, Rep of Thailand Other India Philippines
6%
4%
2016E
15%
11%
18%
13%
2015E
38%
19%
4%
51%
10%
11%
REC Solar market
12
2015: Completed CAPEX expanding capacity by 300 MW 2016: Further increase of total capacity to 1.7 GW
525 647 722 820 955 1,200
1,700
3,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total REC Capacity (MW)
Beyond 2016: Explore all options for further sustainable growth
13
REC Strategy Outlook 2016
Continue capacity expansion up to 1.7 GW by end of 2016
Further expand production capacity for REC’s new award-winning product, TwinPeak
Strengthen REC’s global position to further balance market developments
Increase REC’s position in emerging markets by providing high-end turnkey solutions and know-how transfer
Leverage on solar’s momentum resulting from UN Climate Change conference, COP21
14
To limit temperature increase to 2ºC compared to pre-industrial levels, a significant upscaling of low-carbon energy supply is required
REC expects a strong agreement at UN Climate Change conference, COP21, based on submitted ambitious national targets in advance:
− USA: Generating 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 (2014: 13%)
− EU: Share of renewables in the electricity mix at least 45% by 2030 (2014: 21%)
− Japan: Renewables within electricity mix ~22-24% by 2030, solar targeted at ~7.0%
− India: about 40% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030
A strong agreement will open a bright long-term perspective for solar, likely above actual forecasts
Strong commitment at COP21 and higher push for solar expected
~15%
25-30%
60%
90-95%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2030 2050 2100
Low
-car
bon
ener
gy s
hare
of p
rimar
y en
ergy
Associated required upscaling of low-carbon energy supply
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report 2014