Fondo Monetario Internacional

28 de mayo de 2018

Reformas Estructurales y Crecimiento Económico de

Largo Plazo

XXVII Ciclo de Jornadas EconomicasJunio 11-12, 2018

2

LA only region to reduce inequality since 2000

but remains the most unequal one Progress was broad-based for inequality… … and especially pronounced in commodity

exporters for poverty

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

East Asia

Pacific

Europe,

Central

Asia

Latin

America

Middle

East and

North

Africa

South

Asia

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

2000 2010 2015

Gini Coefficient (population weighted average)

Sources: PovcalNet, World Bank, World Development Indicators database. Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators database; and IMF

staff calculations.

Note: Blue markers refer to South America. Red markers refer to CAPDR

and Mexico.

Sources: IDB SIMS; and IMF staff calculations.

Note: Blue markers refer to South America. Red markers refer to CAPDR

and Mexico. Chile utilizes 2013 values for 2014 poverty headcount ratio

due to data availability.

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

ChileColombia

Costa Rica

Dominican

Republic

EcuadorEl Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Uruguay

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Ch

an

ge in

Gin

i (%

pp

ts.)

Growth in commodity terms of trade (%)

(2000–14)

Argentina

Belize

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Dominican

Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

GuatemalaHonduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Uruguay

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Ch

an

ge in

ext

rem

e p

overt

y (

% p

pts

.)

Growth in commodity terms of trade (%)

(2000–14)

Less inequality Less poverty

3

Homicides rates are high …

Sources: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime; and IMF staff calculations.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CH

LA

RG

NIC

PER

GR

DEC

UU

RY

DM

AP

RY

HTI

PA

NSU

RB

RB

ATG

CR

IB

OL

MEX

DO

MG

UY

LC

AV

CT

CO

LB

RA

BH

STTO

GTM

KN

AB

LZ

HN

DJA

MSLV

South America

CAPDR and Mexico

Caribbean

World

Homicide Rates, 2015 or latest

(per 100,000 people)

SLV

HND

VEN

ATG

BHS

BRB

DMA

GRD

GUY

BLZ

JAM

KNA

LCA

VCT

SUR

TTO

0

20

40

60

80

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5H

om

oci

de r

ate

GDP per capita, PPP$, log

Elevated Violent Crime

GTM

…with some countries in Central America exhibiting some of the highest

crimes rates in the world…

Sources: IMF staff calculations; and World Bank World Development Indicators.

4

The region would benefit greatly from tackling crime and improving

security

Sources: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime; and IMF staff calculations. Source: IMF staff calculations.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

SLV

JAM

HN

DB

LZ

KN

AG

TM

TTO

BH

SB

RA

CO

LV

CT

LC

AG

UY

DO

MM

EX

BO

LC

RI

ATG

BR

BSU

RP

AN

HTI

PR

YU

RY

DM

AEC

UG

RD

PER

NIC

AR

GC

HL

South America

CAPDR

Caribbean

Gain in GDP Growth if Homicides Rates Were

Same as World Average

(% ppts. per year)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Rest of

LAC

Caribbean CAPDR

Social costs

Private costs

Government costs

Crime-related Costs

(% of GDP)

… with significant economic and social costs, hindering investment and

potential growth

5

Infrastructure bottlenecks reflected in low

investment levelsEducation outcomes remain low,

though region spends more than others

Low ‘openness levels’ call for further trade

liberalization

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff

calculations.

Note: PPP GDP-weighted average.

Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2015

Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA); World Bank,

World Development Indicators database; and IMF staff calculations.

Note: Simple average. Latest available data.

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff

calculations.

Note: Simple average. Trade openness is measured as the sum of exports

and imports of goods and services as a share of GDP.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Asia EME MENA SSA LAC

Average 2000–16 2017

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% GDP)

Advanced economies education outcome = 69.3

3.5

3.8

4.1

4.4

4.7

5.0

0

20

40

60

80

Asia CIS EME LAC

PISA education outcomes

Public education spending (percent of GDP; right scale)

Education Outcomes and Spending (% rank)

Advanced economies = 124.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

EME Asia MENA LAC SSA

Trade Openness, 2017 (% GDP)

Fondo Monetario Internacional

28 de mayo de 2018

Muchas gracias.

XXVII Ciclo de Jornadas EconomicasJunio 11-12, 2018