Filename, 1

Regional Seismic Damage Assessmentand

Interdependencies of CriticalInfrastructures during Earthquakes

Prof. Carlos E. VenturaUniversity of British Columbia

Workshop on Seismic Hazard and MicrozonationToronto, 13 January 2012

Filename, 2

Seismic Risk Studies in BC

Seismic risk in south-western BC Deals with damage, monetary losses and casualties

Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies Development of technology and tools to better understand the interdependency between critical infrastructure during natural and man-made disasters

Real-time monitoring of infrastructure in BCDevelopment of Internet-based technology for monitoring earthquakes and their effects in BC.

The methodology of each of these projects will be presented briefly.

Filename, 3

PGA / MMI

Select Probability Level

% Damage and $ Loss

Damage Table

Building TypeSeismicHazard

BuildingVulnerability

SeismicRisk

Elements of Seismic Risk

Filename, 4

Prevalent Material Type by Block

Filename, 5

Structural Damage in Vancouver Average MDF (%) by Block for MMI VIII

Filename, 6

Main geological units and the corresponding amplification factors are:

R2 1.0C1 1.5F 1.5C2 2.0O1 2.5

Geological Units in Victoria

These amplification factors are for strong shaking and long-period ground motion.

Filename, 7

Structural Damage in Victoriawith and without Site Amplification

Filename, 8

Monetary Losses

Economic losses estimated based on building use, replacement value and damage

FEMA Facility Dependent monetary loss estimation

18%

62%

20%

13%

70%

17%

8%

48%

44%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

% o

f Tot

al L

osse

s

Office Hotel Hospital

Building type

Cost Distribution in Buildings

ContentsNonstructuralStructural

After Prof. E. Miranda

Filename, 9

Non-structural Damage

Average MDF for NSCs on UBC Campus

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Instrumental Intensity

MD

F (%

)

Contents

Displacement

Acceleration

Filename, 10

Building Functionality 10

Instrumental Intensity

Num

ber o

f Bui

ldin

gs

UBC Campus

Filename, 11

Collaborative work in BC to adapt HAZUS Methodology

to CANADA

Filename, 12

Recent collaborative work in BC

Filename, 13

Example of Earthquake Damage Scenarios

Developed by NRCan as part of this Collaborative Work

The following slides were kindly provided by Dr. M. Journeay of NRCan

Filename, 14

Disclaimer:

The results presented here are of verypreliminary nature and should only be usedto better understand the concepts describedin this presentation and to get a general ideaof the comparative impact of various types ofearthquakes that may affect the BC region

Filename, 15

Filename, 16

Filename, 17

Filename, 18

Filename, 19

Filename, 20

Filename, 21

Filename, 22

Filename, 23

Filename, 24

Filename, 25

Filename, 26

Filename, 27

Filename, 28

Filename, 29

Filename, 30

UNDERSTANDING INTERDEPENDENCIES AMONG CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES

Filename, 31

System of Systems - interdependencies

Electric

Power Plant Substation

Transmission

FoodDistribution center

Production centerLocal store

Water

PurificationPlantPump Station

Pipe

Oil & Gas

Refinery

Oil Field Compressor Station

CommunicationsPhone

Internet

Mobile

Transportation

Local roadBridge Regional Highway

Emergency Responders

FirefighterParamedic

Hospital

911 E-Comm

Critical EventLocal road

• Many critical infrastructure Networks rely on one another in order to function• In the event of a disaster, Critical Infrastructures can sustain significant

damage which could render them inoperable• Important to identify infrastructure interdependencies in order to mitigate the

effects of a disaster

Filename, 32

How do we do it?

First, there are interdependencies within and in between infrastructures networks

Second, we need to recognize that interdependencies are time dependent and have very complex relationships

Third, we have to recognize that this is a difficult problem to solve because it is highly nonlinear and time dependent

The problem can be made more manageable by linearizing the interdependencies in segments of time, using Seismic Risk Assessment techniques for individual infrastructures and implementing a rational approach to combine the information available to determine the effect of these interdependencies

Filename, 33

I2Sim

I2Sim is a tool that we have developed to determine the consequences of the failure of one or more of the infrastructures

www.i2sim. ca

3ST

2LT

1Urgent

1 steam

distributor_to_Power_House

In1

In2

p_hospital

p_powerhouse

distributorcontroller

Waterstation

UBC_hospital

UBC Substation

currenttime

TIME

Steamstation

Powerhouse

A_ch1

A_ch6

_powertoph

swh

swf12

-C-

External Water2

-C-

External Water

-C-

External Gas

Display

In1

Out

1

Channel 9

In1 Out1Channel 8

In1

Out

1

Channel 7

In1 Out1Channel 6

In1 Out1Channel 5

In1 Out1

Channel 4

In1 Out1Channel 3

In1 Out1Channel 2

In1 Out1Channel 11

In1 Out1Channel 10

In1

Out

1Channel 1

Node 1

Node 4

Node 3

Node 5

Node 2

3ST

2LT

1Urgent

1 steam

distributor_to_Power_House

In1

In2

p_hospital

p_powerhouse

distributorcontroller

Waterstation

UBC_hospital

UBC Substation

currenttime

TIME

Steamstation

Powerhouse

A_ch1

A_ch6

_powertoph

swh

swf12

-C-

External Water2

-C-

External Water

-C-

External Gas

Display

In1

Out

1

Channel 9

In1 Out1Channel 8

In1

Out

1

Channel 7

In1 Out1Channel 6

In1 Out1Channel 5

In1 Out1

Channel 4

In1 Out1Channel 3

In1 Out1Channel 2

In1 Out1Channel 11

In1 Out1Channel 10

In1

Out

1Channel 1

Node 1

Node 4

Node 3

Node 5

Node 2

Filename, 34

Superimposed Layers

34

Filename, 35

Cell’s State

Physical Operability 100% (green)

Effective Operability 50% because of lack of water

Physical Operability 50% (yellow)

Effective Operability 0% because of lack of electricity

Sensory Information 0%

Sensory information 100%

PM01

water

PM03

electricity

35

Filename, 36

i2Sim Model

36

Cell 2

Channel i

+

X

Cell 1

PMRM

Control points

Distributor

Aggregator

Structure + NSCs + Lifelines

Filename, 37

Interdependencies

Can be represented by the following equation:

[T]: Transportation matrix

[X]: Received Goods

[W]: Sent Goods

][]][[ wxT

Power

Water

Roads

xxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxx

p1p2p3

w1w2w3

r1r2r3

Sp1Sp2Sp3

Sw1Sw2Sw3

Sr1Sr2Sr3

p1 = power token value node 1p2 = power token value node 2...w1 = water token value node 1...

Sp1 = power source value node 1Sp2 = power source value node 2...Sw1 = water source value node 1...

y

yyy y

y

y

yy y

x = internal transmission linky = interdependency link

y

y

y y

y yy

p1 p2 p3 r1 r2 r3w1 w2 w3

w1w2w3

r1r2r3

p1

p2p3

Filename, 38 38

Real-Time Responsiveness

Closed solution much faster than open iterative solutions (e.g., agent-based modelling) by two or three orders of magnitude

As an example, a system of 3,000 cells with 15 inputs/outputs per cell (45,000 state variables) for a 10 hr scenario with ∆t = 5 minutes can be anylized in a few seconds of computer time

Interactive scenario playing is basically instantaneous

Filename, 39

2008011639

Cells Outputs

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

TIME (h)

WA

TE

R (

%)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

TIME (h)

ME

DIC

INE

(%

)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 50

50

100

150

TIME (h)

DO

CT

OR

S (

%)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

TIME (h)

BE

DS

(%

)

Wat

er (%

)D

octo

rs (%

)

Med

icin

es (%

)B

eds

(%)

Filename, 40

No Action (Sim)Alternative

actions

Action A1 (Sim)

Action A2 (Sim)

Real World

Action B1 (Sim)

Action B2 (Sim)

A

B

A, B = decision pointsDecision A- Take Action A2Decision B- Take Action B1Screens at A- Real World- No Action (Sim)- Action A1 (Sim)- Action A2 (Sim)

A

No Action (Sim)

Decision Making Scenario

Filename, 41

UBC Campus Case Study

Filename, 42

UBC Campus Case

Why modeling UBC campus? The UBC campus shares many

attributes of a small city 47000 daily transitory occupants 10000 full time residents own utilities providers

Information

After an earthquake, you will have losses in the services (electricity, water, etc.)What will be the overall functionality of UBC?Where to put the available resources?

42

Filename, 43 43

Campus Networks: GIS

Filename, 44

Campus Fiber Network

Filename, 45

45Earthquake Damage Assessment

Filename, 46 2008011646

GIS: Decision Makers Risk Mapping

Filename, 47

Filename, 48

Water system

Filename, 49 49

Filename, 50 50

Filename, 51

Filename, 52

Global Interdependency of the Hospital

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

VI VII VIII IX X XI

Functio

nality Co

ndition

s

Instrumental Intensity

Global Interdependency between hospitalwater and electricity systems

H interdependencyElectricity to HWater Zone A12Hospital

Filename, 53

www.bcsims.ca

Internet-based tools for:

• Instant notification of levels of ground shaking (main shock and aftershocks)

• Real-time shake maps• Performance of

infrastructure• Emergency response

planning• Real-time maps of damage

distribution• Earthquake warning system

Collaborative effort between BCMOT-UBC-GSC (and BCMOE)

Filename, 54

Remarks

When interdependencies are taken into account, they can help develop more realistic risk reduction programs and emergency response plans.

Methodologies being developed are useful for the identification of regions of high seismic risk and the interdependencies among critical infrastructures

Real-time information tools, such as the BCSIMS project, and simulators, such as I2SIM, are powerful tools that allow the investigation of risk levels and interdependencies among Critical Infrastructure, so that consequences can be minimized.

Improving response to infrastructure failures is a necessary condition for disaster resilience

First priority during disaster situations is, and should be, human survival