1
Investor Presentation for Spain Oct 2019
Reliance Asset Management,SingaporePortfolio Manager
Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd Portfolio Advisor
2
Growth of GDP: The quantum of multiplier effect
Growth drivers of GDP-Demographics and Consumerism
Ho(L)ming on the possibilities- What drives the growth
Reforms driving the next trajectory – Poised for a take-off
Importance of Local Flavour – Key Differentiator in Alpha creation
Partnership is the key to success- Footprint across the globe
33
4
5
66
77
88
99
1010
1111
1212
1313
1414
1515
1616
1717
Private & Confidential
1818
•
•
•
Source : RBI, CMIE
3.8%
6.0%
10.1%
4.5%4.6% 4.5%3.9%
3.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
FY99-04 FY04-09 FY09-14 FY14-19
India CPIinflation
India versus Global inflation: Gap has narrowed
2.2%2.0%
3.4%
4.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
FY99-04 FY04-09 FY09-14 FY14-19
India Growth gap versus the World
India growth diiferential(Read GDP gap)
1 USD = 70 INR
1919
Source: UN population division, *Asia (ex India, Indonesia, China & Japan) and CMIE, December 2016
33
37
41
45
49
5334
37
40
43
46
49
52
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
(%)
(%)
China age dependency ratio (inverted)China Gross national savings (% of GDP, RHS)China Total investment (As a % of GDP, RHS)
10
15
20
25
30
35
4045
55
65
75
85
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
(% o
f GDP
)
(%)
India age dependency ratio (%, inverted)Gross national savings (As a % of GDP)Total investment (As a % of GDP)
475
208
123
120
44
21
5
3
- 6
- 19
- 25
(100%)
(44%)
(26%)
(25%)
(9%)
(4%)
(1%)
(1%)
(-1%)
(-4%)
(-5%)
- 200 0 200 400 600
World 4841
Africa 663
India 860
Asia (ex IICJ*) 874
LATAM 422
Indonesia 173
US 212
ROW 50
Japan 78
China 1015
Europe 494
Change in working age population (2015-2025)in million (% share of total change)
2020
Source: Bank of International Settlements, December 2017
•
•
0
100
200
300Debt to GDP (%)
0
25
50
75
100 Household Debt to GDP (%)
2121
22
2323
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
In recent times, no country has undertaken the kind of reforms which India has carried out in the last 5 years leading to incremental GDP growth
2424
2525
2626
▪
▪
▪
▪
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Feb
-17
Jun
-17
Oct
-17
Feb
-18
Jun
-18
Oct
-18
Feb
-19
Jun
-19
WPI (%YoY) (LHS)
Gap (WPI - Core CPI %yoy)
2727
▪
▪
16.8
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1/1
/20
06
1/9
/20
06
1/5
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/9
/20
08
1/5
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
1/9
/20
10
1/5
/20
11
1/1
/20
12
1/9
/20
12
1/5
/20
13
1/1
/20
14
1/9
/20
14
1/5
/20
15
1/1
/20
16
1/9
/20
16
1/5
/20
17
1/1
/20
18
1/9
/20
18
1/5
/20
19
best_pe_ratio Average +2SD -2SD
0.98
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1/1
2/2
00
5
1/8
/20
06
1/4
/20
07
1/1
2/2
00
7
1/8
/20
08
1/4
/20
09
1/1
2/2
00
9
1/8
/20
10
1/4
/20
11
1/1
2/2
01
1
1/8
/20
12
1/4
/20
13
1/1
2/2
01
3
1/8
/20
14
1/4
/20
15
1/1
2/2
01
5
1/8
/20
16
1/4
/20
17
1/1
2/2
01
7
1/8
/20
18
1/4
/20
19
Midcap PE /Largecap PE Average +2SD -2SD
2828
▪
▪
•
-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%
05
1015202530354045
12m Fwd PE (LHS) Premium to history (5yr) (RHS)
29
Themes which dominated the market in India
3030
3131
EPS (Growth)
FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY21/19 FY20E FY21E
BFSI 122 195 247 61% 27% 104% 83% 47%
Retail bank 61 75 92 23% 22% 50% 15% 15%
Corporate banks 22 78 109 260% 39% 400% 63% 27%
NBFC 39 42 47 9% 12% 22% 4% 5%
Exports 85 99 114 17% 15% 35% 16% 14%
Information technology 77 83 92 7% 11% 19% 6% 8%
Pharma 9 12 14 37% 18% 62% 4% 2%
Export Auto (1) 4 8 Loss Loss Loss 6% 3%
Commodities 160 151 175 -6% 16% 9% -10% 21%
OMCs 19 18 21 -6% 16% 9% -1% 3%
Energy (ex OMC) 88 90 105 2% 17% 19% 2% 14%
Metals and mining 53 44 50 -18% 14% -7% -11% 5%
Domesitc Consumption 68 68 79 0% 16% 16% 0% 10%
Domestic Auto 31 29 32 -4% 8% 4% -1% 2%
Consumer staples 28 31 35 10% 13% 25% 3% 4%
Telecom 3 0 3 Loss Loss -5% -3% 3%
Consumer discretionary 6 8 9 23% 18% 45% 2% 1%
Domestic Investment 53 60 70 14% 16% 32% 8% 8%
Utilities 24 26 28 8% 11% 20% 2% 2%
Agro Chemicals 4 5 7 40% 25% 75% 2% 1%
Industrials 23 26 30 12% 17% 31% 3% 4%
Cement 2 3 4 54% 28% 97% 1% 1%
Nifty 488 577 689 18% 19% 41% 100% 100%
Nifty ex corporate banks 466 499 580 7% 16% 24%
Nifty ex corporate banks, commodities 306 348 405 14% 16% 32%
EPS (INR) EPS (Growth,%YoY) Growth cotribution
3232
33
34
35
3636
▪
▪
▪
▪
3737
3838
3939
▪
▪
▪
4040
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
Year Headline CPI Food Core Of Which
Services
Weight 100 45.86 44.92 28.32
FY13 10.1 11.2 8.7 8.1
FY14 9.4 11.9 8.1 6.5
FY15 5.8 6.5 6.1 4.6
FY16 4.9 5.1 4.3 3.7
FY17 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.5
FY18 3.6 2.2 4.5 3.8
FY19 3.4 0.7 5.8 5.8
Contribution
FY13 10.2 5.4 3.9 2.1
FY14 9.5 5.0 3.7 2.0
FY15 6.5 3.3 2.7 1.5
FY16 4.9 2.3 1.9 1.1
FY17 4.5 2.0 2.1 1.3
FY18 3.6 1.0 2.0 1.1
FY19 3.4 0.3 2.6 1.7
Broad Category-wise Trends in Inflation (%y/y)
4141
▪
▪
▪
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Deposit growth
Credit growth
Loan growth declining while deposit growth picked up
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Net LAF(7d mma, Rs bn )
Call Rate (RHS)
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
Apr/13 Apr/14 Apr/15 Apr/16 Apr/17 Apr/18 Apr/19
India's foreign exchange reserves (bln US$)
4242
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Latest
Spreads - 1 Year ( in bps )
Tbill - Repo CD - Repo AAA HFC - Repo AA NBFC - Repo
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Latest
Spreads - 3 Year ( in bps )
GSec - Repo AAA PSU - Repo AAA HFC - Repo AA NBFC - Repo
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Latest
Spreads - 5years ( in bps )
GSec - Repo AAA PSU - Repo AAA HFC - Repo AA NBFC - Repo
4343
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
44
4545•
•
4646
4747
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
18.4%
13.1%
9.6% 9.0%7.5%
2
Key Figures
3 4 5
4848
Retail Agent
Nippon Life Group
Nippon Life
Mitsui Life
(82.6%)Revenues from insurance and
reinsurance premiums (FY2017):
$6.3bn
Domestic Insurance Business Overseas Insurance BusinessAsset Management Business
Source: Company filings, SNL Notes: USD1=JPY108.64; USD1=INR67.48; USD1=EUR0.86; USD1=AUD1.32; USD1=THB31.99; USD1=IDR13,895 (as of May 31, 2018)1. To be renamed to Nippon Wealth Life in Jan. 20192. AUM represents the average of Jan. – Mar. 20193. Held by Nippon Life’s fully owned subsidiary NLI US Investments4. 68.34% held by Nippon Life’s equity-method affiliate PT Sequis, in which Nippon Life holds 29.26% of the total voting rights. 0.01% is held directly by Nippon Life.5. Launched a preparing company in July. 2018
Reliance Nippon
Life Asset
Management
(42.9%)AUM (2019): $ 60bn2
MLC Life Insurance
(80.0%)Revenues from insurance and
reinsurance premiums (FY2017): $1.8bn
Bangkok LifeAssurance
(24.2%)GWP (FY2017):$1.3bn
PT Asuransi Jiwa Sequis Life
(68.3% by Nippon Life’s affiliate4)GWP (FY2017):$0.2bn
Life Salon
(98.5%)
Life Plaza Partners
(100.0%)
HOKEN110
(100.0%)
Nissay Asset Management
(100.0%)AUM (2017/3): $98.4bn
Post Advisory Group (20.0% by subsidiary3)
AUM (2017/12): $16.8bn
Nippon Life Insurance
Company of America
(97.0%)
Reliance Nippon
Life Insurance
(49.0%)GWP (FY2017): $0.5bn
MassMutual Life1
(85.1%)Revenues from insurance and
reinsurance premiums (FY2017):
$2.1bn
The TCW Group
(24.8% by subsidiary3)AUM (2018/3): $202.0bn
DWS Group
(5.0%)AUM (2017/12): $817.1bn
(New Life Insurance Company)5
(100%)
4949Nippon Life has increased its stake to 75% on Sep 27th 2019
5050
Why you should look at dedicated Indian Fund Manager Like us. Our Team!!!!!Local on ground experience matters and makes a huge difference
51
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
6
5252
52
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
5353
•
•
•
5454
GROWTH
VALUATIONSLow Value High Value
High Growth High Value
Low Growth High ValueLow Growth Low Value
5555
➢
➢
➢
➢
➢
➢
➢
➢
565656 of 19
Investment Universe
Sell-Side
Research
1000-1500 Management
Meetings Every Year
Proprietary In-House
Research of RAMS and
RNAM
56
•
•
•
Investment universe
MUST “FIVE”
Management QualityBusiness potentialTrack RecordCorporate GovernancePerception
EVALUATION
Competitive advantagePotential TriggersFinancial AnalysisAbsolute valuationPeer comparison DECISION MAKING
WATCHLIST
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
LiquiditySector exposurePortfolio BetaRisk Management
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
News flowMonitoringQuarterly ReviewsSell discipline
Triggered due to change in stock price and/or data point.
MACRO-INPUTS
Do we buy the stock ?
BUY it Now
Yes
Yes
5757
•
•
•
»
»
»
»
»
•
•
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
•
5858
58
Launched in March 2016- Current AUM USD 232 mn
Market Cap Weightage
Large Cap 55%
Mid Cap 19%
Small Cap 14%
Cash 5%
Daily Dealing Fund USD & GBP Share Class
Currently the portfolio holds 33 stocks
Large Cap : Greater than USD 4.5bn, Mid Cap: USD 4.5bn-USD1.5bn, Small Cap Less than USD 1.5bn
Top 10 Holding
Infosys Ltd 7.8%
HDFC Bank 5.9%
Reliance Industries 5.2%
ICICI Bank 4.2%
Tata Consultancy 3.6%
State Bank of India 3.1%
Axis Bank 3.1%
Varun Beverages 3.2%
Bajaj Finance 2.8%
ACC Ltd 2.8%
•
1%
2%
4%
5%
5%
7%
8%
9%
10%
14%
29%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Real Estate
Utilities
Communication Services
Consumer Discretionary
Energy
Health Care
Materials
Consumer Staples
Industrials
Information Technology
Financials
5959
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
GICS Classification but some stocks adjusted for their business hence the sector exposure different from factsheet
6060
Actively tracked the consumer companies in India driven by 3Ps- Penetration, Premiumisation and Per Capita Income. Organized retail penetration in India today stands at only ~20%. Increasing middle income population, greater purchasing, better access and availability of products, higher brand consciousness, increasing urbanization and increasing digitization are key drivers for strong growth of branded and organized retail
ABFRL is India’s largest pure-play Fashion and Lifestyle Company with a strong bouquet of leading fashion brands and retail formats. The company has a reach of ~2200 brand stores, over 5,000 multi-brand outlets and 4,000+ points of sale in department stores across the country. Actively tracked this company for last many years even before it was carved out from
AB Nuvo and owned it in domestic portfolios.
In Dec 2018 the company had grown in last 2 years with topline at 15% CAGR to USD 1.2bn. Have also launched Fat fashion brands Forverer 21 and Ted Baker into India.
Triggers for entering the portfolio [ Dec 2018]• Company has delivered consistent earnings growth for last few quarters and Panataloon turned profitable on EBITDA level. •Innerwear business has scaled up to USD 14mn and expected to grow to USD 70mn in 3 years• Company Growth : Expected the company to grow it sales at 15-17%% CAGR and PAT by 40% over next 2 years to USD 33mn.•Distribution Expansion: Expanded the innerwear business network to 12000 outlets in a short time. Expect to reach 20,000 outlets by FY20. Also will add 40-50 Pantaloons store every year on a base of 302 stores. •Pantaloon: Change of store mix to improve EBIDTA. Mean reversion of pricing and store ramp ups to drive SGG recovery•Margin Expansion: Pantaloon currently makes just 7% margin which can go upto 10% due to economies of scale and Madura can gro w to 13% from 11%. • Valuations : At INR 210 it is trading at 16x FY21e EV/EBITDA and still offers a good opportunity
Our Entry point
6161
Britannia- Largest biscuit company and future Mondelez of India
61
Actively tracked the consumer companies in India driven by 3Ps- Penetration, Premiumisation and Per Capita Income. Consumption of biscuits, was at an average of 2.1kg per person which is one- fifth that of developed countries
Britannia with 38% market share is the largest biscuit company. Actively tracked this company for last many years and owned it in domestic portfolios.
In March 16 the company had grown in last 3 years with topline at 12% CAGR to USD 1.3bn but profit tripling to USD 130mn.
Triggers for entering the portfolio [ April 2016]• Industry Growth: India’s biscuits market was valued at (USD4.25bn) as on FY17, and was expected to grow at an annual rate of 10-11% CAGR between 2017 -2022. • Company Growth : Expected the company to grow it sales at 10% CAGR and PAT by 15% over next 3 years to USD 1.8bn and 200mn respectively .•Distribution Expansion: From 4.6mn outlets to 5.8mn outlets. •Margin Expansion: Premiumisation . Britannia makes 15% Vs Nestle India20% . • Valuations : At INR 1500 was trading at 40x 1 yr forward. RoE 30%+ , FCF generation
Why do still own it inspite of 90% appreciation?• Sales is still just USD 1.6bn Vs Mondelez USD 27bn. • At 50x 1 year forward PE is in line with sector/peers and Profit can again double from here in next 4-5 years to USD 300mn
6262
❑
❑
❑
❑
Source: Bloomberg Data as of January 11, 2018
63
64
65
66
6767
6868
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
❑
69
7070
➢
➢
➢
➢
7171
•
•
•
7272
➢
➢
➢
7373
➢
➢
➢
➢
➢
➢
➢
7474
Return Drivers
Fixed Income Returns Drivers
Period Category Carry Duration
Spread widening/
Compression
3-6 Months High Grade
High Yield
12 months High Grade
High Yield
24 Months High Grade
High Yield
75
Share Class and ISIN ISIN
Management
Fee
Minimum
Investment (Base
Currency)
EAA OE India Equity- Morningstar Category
RAMS EPF India Equities Port A GBP LU1313565951 1.50 10,000.00
RAMS EPF India Equities Port A USD LU1248241686 1.50 10,000.00
RAMS EPF India Equities Port I USD LU1251112626 1.25 250,000.00
RAMS EPF India Equities Port J USD LU1387764258 0.80 25,000,000.00
RAMS EPF India Equities Port RDR GBP LU1313566413 1.25 10,000.00
RAMS EPF India Equities Port RDR USD LU1251113434 1.25 10,000.00
RAMS EPF India Equities Port Euro LU1515376009 1.25 10,000.00
Share Class and ISIN ISIN
Management
Fee
Minimum
Investment (Base
Currency)
RAMS India Fixed Income J USD IE00BFYGTN48 0.80 25,000,000.00
RAMS India Fixed Income A USD IE00BFYGTQ78 1.20 500.00
RAMS India Fixed Income I USD IE00BFYGTS92 1.00 100,000.00
RAMS India Fixed Income RDR USD IE00BFYGTR85 1.00 500.00
RAMS India Fixed Income RDR GBP IE00BFYGTP61 1.00 500.00
7676
Partnership is our Strength : Our Reach
7777
78
79
80
Name EducationResponsibility / Title (e.g., CIO / Fund
Manager / Analyst, etc.)
No. of Years with the
firm
No. of Years in
industry
CIO / Head - Equity / Fund Managers
Manish Gunwani B.Tech, PGDM CIO - Equity Investments 1 Year 21 Years
Sailesh Raj Bhan MBA, CFA (ICFAI) Deputy CIO - Equity Investments 15 Years 23 Years
Ashwani Kumar B.Sc., MBA Sr. Fund Manager - Investment Equity 16 Years 26 years
Meenakshi Dawar B.Tech and MBA (IIM Ahmedabad) Fund Manager - Equity 2 years 9 Years
Jahnvee Shah BHsc, PGEP-Biz. Co- Fund Manager - Equity 13 Years 14 Years
Samir Rachh B.Com Fund Manager - Equity 11 Years 27 Years
Sanjay Parekh B.com, CA, Senior Fund Manager - Equity 7 Years 24 Years
Sanjay Doshi CA Fund Manager - Equity 8 Years 14 Years
Ashutosh Bhargava B.Com,MBA,CFA Head- Equity Research & Fund Manager 11 Years 13 Years
Kinjal Desai BA, MSC Economics /CFA Fund Manager- Overseas Investments 6 Years 7 Years
Dhrumil Gautam Shah B.Com, CA Assistant Fund Manager- Equity 1 year 12 years
Vinay Sharma B.Arch, PGDCM IIM Calcutta, CFA Fund Manager- Equity 1 year 14 Years
Sulabj Jhajharia B Tech , MBA [ NUS ] CFA Portfolio Manager- Singapore 12 years 12 years
CIO / Head - Fixed Income / Fund Managers
Amit Tripathi B.Com (H), PGDM CIO - Fixed Income Investments 15 Years 21 Years
Anju Chhajer B.com, CA Sr. Fund Manager - Fixed Income 11 Years 22 Years
Prashant Raghunath Pimple MBA (Finance) CTM (ICFAI) Sr. Fund Manager - Fixed Income 10 Years 19 Years
Vivek Sharma BE, PGDBM Fund Manager - Fixed Income 13 Years 13 Years
Siddharth Gautam Deb B.Sc, MMS Fund Manager - Fixed Income 2 Year 12 Years
Sushil Hari Prasad Budhia CA Senior Fund Manager - Fixed Income Less than 1 year 18 Years
Viral Bhuta B.E., MBA (Finance from Boston] Portfolio Manager- Singapore 3 Years 13 Years
Equity - Research Analysts
Yatin Matta Master Of Finance & Control Research Analyst 8 Years 8 Years
Varun Goenka BBA Research Analyst - Equity 8 Years 14 Years
Aishwarya Deepak Agrawal CA Fund Manager & Sr. Research Analyst 5 Years 18 Years
Pratibh Agarwal B.Tech, M.Tech Research Associate 5 Years 9 Years
Arjun Sengar BA, M.Sc Research Associate 5 Years 5 Years
Bhavik Dave BBA, PGDBM Research Associate 4 Years 6 Years
Piyush Kumar Pandey B.tech, PGDBM Research Associate 4 Years 9 Years
Tejas Sheth PGDBA Co-Fund Manager & Research Analyst - Equity4 Years 13 Years
Abhinav Bhandari BBA, PGDBM Research Analyst - Equity 4 Years 11 Years
Shivaji Mehta BA, PGPM (Finance) Research Analyst 3 Years 7 Years
Yash Girija Dayal B. Tech. (Electronics & Telecommunication) Research Associate 2 years 4 Years
Akshay Sharma MBA Finance Quant Analyst 3 Years 3 Years
Akash Surendra Pipara B.Com, PGDM Associate Research Analyst 1 Year 3 Years
Prateek Poddar B.Com, CA Research Analyst Less than 1 year 5 Years
Nikhil Vijay Rungta CA, FRM, MBA Research Analyst - Equity Less than 1 year 11 Years
Manish Kayal CA,CFA Research Analyst - Equity Less than 1 year 14 Years
Fixed Income - Research Analysts
Vikash Rungta B.Com, CA (Inter), CS (Inter), CFA, GARP Head Credit Research - Fixed Income 12 years 15 Years
Ashish Jalan B.com, PGPM, CA Senior Credit Analyst 5 Years 9 Years
Nitu Kothari B.com, PGPM, CA Associate Credit Research 15 Years 17 years
Akshat Bordia B.com, CA, CS Credit Analyst 3 Years 4 Years
Saurabh Kabra B.com, CA, CS Credit Analyst 1 Year 6 Years
Aradhana Singh B.com, CA, CS Credit Analyst 1 Year 2 years
Varun Milind Nabar B.com, CA Credit Analyst Less than 1 year 2 years
Jyoti Arun Kumar Sawal B.com, Cs Credit Analyst Less than 1 year 1 year
Ateet Nagar Bansal B.com, CA, CS, PGDM Finance Credit Analyst Less than 1 year 11 Years
Equity - Dealer
Anand Devendra Gupta B.com, MBA - Finance Vice President - Dealing (Equity) 11 years 25 years
Rohit Hashmukh Shah B.com, CA/FRM Dealer - ETF 6 years 7 Years
Nemish Hemant Sheth PGDBM- Finance Dealer- Equity & ETF Less than 1 year 9 Years
Fixed Income - Dealer
Hardik Bharat Shah BE, PGDBM Dealer - Fixed Income 5 Years 9 Years
Sharmila Sawant B.A,MBA. Dealer - Fixed Income 11 Years 18 Years