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1 Investor Presentation for Spain Oct 2019 Reliance Asset Management, Singapore Portfolio Manager Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd Portfolio Advisor
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Page 1: Reliance Asset Management, Reliance Nippon Life Asset … · 2019. 10. 8. · 4. 68.34% held by Nippon Life’s equity-method affiliate PT Sequis, in which Nippon Life holds 29.26%

1

Investor Presentation for Spain Oct 2019

Reliance Asset Management,SingaporePortfolio Manager

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd Portfolio Advisor

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2

Growth of GDP: The quantum of multiplier effect

Growth drivers of GDP-Demographics and Consumerism

Ho(L)ming on the possibilities- What drives the growth

Reforms driving the next trajectory – Poised for a take-off

Importance of Local Flavour – Key Differentiator in Alpha creation

Partnership is the key to success- Footprint across the globe

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1717

Private & Confidential

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1818

Source : RBI, CMIE

3.8%

6.0%

10.1%

4.5%4.6% 4.5%3.9%

3.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

FY99-04 FY04-09 FY09-14 FY14-19

India CPIinflation

India versus Global inflation: Gap has narrowed

2.2%2.0%

3.4%

4.0%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

FY99-04 FY04-09 FY09-14 FY14-19

India Growth gap versus the World

India growth diiferential(Read GDP gap)

1 USD = 70 INR

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1919

Source: UN population division, *Asia (ex India, Indonesia, China & Japan) and CMIE, December 2016

33

37

41

45

49

5334

37

40

43

46

49

52

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

(%)

(%)

China age dependency ratio (inverted)China Gross national savings (% of GDP, RHS)China Total investment (As a % of GDP, RHS)

10

15

20

25

30

35

4045

55

65

75

85

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

(% o

f GDP

)

(%)

India age dependency ratio (%, inverted)Gross national savings (As a % of GDP)Total investment (As a % of GDP)

475

208

123

120

44

21

5

3

- 6

- 19

- 25

(100%)

(44%)

(26%)

(25%)

(9%)

(4%)

(1%)

(1%)

(-1%)

(-4%)

(-5%)

- 200 0 200 400 600

World 4841

Africa 663

India 860

Asia (ex IICJ*) 874

LATAM 422

Indonesia 173

US 212

ROW 50

Japan 78

China 1015

Europe 494

Change in working age population (2015-2025)in million (% share of total change)

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2020

Source: Bank of International Settlements, December 2017

0

100

200

300Debt to GDP (%)

0

25

50

75

100 Household Debt to GDP (%)

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2121

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22

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In recent times, no country has undertaken the kind of reforms which India has carried out in the last 5 years leading to incremental GDP growth

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2525

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2626

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Feb

-15

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jun

-17

Oct

-17

Feb

-18

Jun

-18

Oct

-18

Feb

-19

Jun

-19

WPI (%YoY) (LHS)

Gap (WPI - Core CPI %yoy)

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16.8

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1/1

/20

06

1/9

/20

06

1/5

/20

07

1/1

/20

08

1/9

/20

08

1/5

/20

09

1/1

/20

10

1/9

/20

10

1/5

/20

11

1/1

/20

12

1/9

/20

12

1/5

/20

13

1/1

/20

14

1/9

/20

14

1/5

/20

15

1/1

/20

16

1/9

/20

16

1/5

/20

17

1/1

/20

18

1/9

/20

18

1/5

/20

19

best_pe_ratio Average +2SD -2SD

0.98

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1/1

2/2

00

5

1/8

/20

06

1/4

/20

07

1/1

2/2

00

7

1/8

/20

08

1/4

/20

09

1/1

2/2

00

9

1/8

/20

10

1/4

/20

11

1/1

2/2

01

1

1/8

/20

12

1/4

/20

13

1/1

2/2

01

3

1/8

/20

14

1/4

/20

15

1/1

2/2

01

5

1/8

/20

16

1/4

/20

17

1/1

2/2

01

7

1/8

/20

18

1/4

/20

19

Midcap PE /Largecap PE Average +2SD -2SD

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2828

-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%

05

1015202530354045

12m Fwd PE (LHS) Premium to history (5yr) (RHS)

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29

Themes which dominated the market in India

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3131

EPS (Growth)

FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY21/19 FY20E FY21E

BFSI 122 195 247 61% 27% 104% 83% 47%

Retail bank 61 75 92 23% 22% 50% 15% 15%

Corporate banks 22 78 109 260% 39% 400% 63% 27%

NBFC 39 42 47 9% 12% 22% 4% 5%

Exports 85 99 114 17% 15% 35% 16% 14%

Information technology 77 83 92 7% 11% 19% 6% 8%

Pharma 9 12 14 37% 18% 62% 4% 2%

Export Auto (1) 4 8 Loss Loss Loss 6% 3%

Commodities 160 151 175 -6% 16% 9% -10% 21%

OMCs 19 18 21 -6% 16% 9% -1% 3%

Energy (ex OMC) 88 90 105 2% 17% 19% 2% 14%

Metals and mining 53 44 50 -18% 14% -7% -11% 5%

Domesitc Consumption 68 68 79 0% 16% 16% 0% 10%

Domestic Auto 31 29 32 -4% 8% 4% -1% 2%

Consumer staples 28 31 35 10% 13% 25% 3% 4%

Telecom 3 0 3 Loss Loss -5% -3% 3%

Consumer discretionary 6 8 9 23% 18% 45% 2% 1%

Domestic Investment 53 60 70 14% 16% 32% 8% 8%

Utilities 24 26 28 8% 11% 20% 2% 2%

Agro Chemicals 4 5 7 40% 25% 75% 2% 1%

Industrials 23 26 30 12% 17% 31% 3% 4%

Cement 2 3 4 54% 28% 97% 1% 1%

Nifty 488 577 689 18% 19% 41% 100% 100%

Nifty ex corporate banks 466 499 580 7% 16% 24%

Nifty ex corporate banks, commodities 306 348 405 14% 16% 32%

EPS (INR) EPS (Growth,%YoY) Growth cotribution

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3636

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3737

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3838

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3939

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4040

Year Headline CPI Food Core Of Which

Services

Weight 100 45.86 44.92 28.32

FY13 10.1 11.2 8.7 8.1

FY14 9.4 11.9 8.1 6.5

FY15 5.8 6.5 6.1 4.6

FY16 4.9 5.1 4.3 3.7

FY17 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.5

FY18 3.6 2.2 4.5 3.8

FY19 3.4 0.7 5.8 5.8

Contribution

FY13 10.2 5.4 3.9 2.1

FY14 9.5 5.0 3.7 2.0

FY15 6.5 3.3 2.7 1.5

FY16 4.9 2.3 1.9 1.1

FY17 4.5 2.0 2.1 1.3

FY18 3.6 1.0 2.0 1.1

FY19 3.4 0.3 2.6 1.7

Broad Category-wise Trends in Inflation (%y/y)

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4141

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Deposit growth

Credit growth

Loan growth declining while deposit growth picked up

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

(5,000)

(4,000)

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Net LAF(7d mma, Rs bn )

Call Rate (RHS)

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450

Apr/13 Apr/14 Apr/15 Apr/16 Apr/17 Apr/18 Apr/19

India's foreign exchange reserves (bln US$)

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4242

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Latest

Spreads - 1 Year ( in bps )

Tbill - Repo CD - Repo AAA HFC - Repo AA NBFC - Repo

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Latest

Spreads - 3 Year ( in bps )

GSec - Repo AAA PSU - Repo AAA HFC - Repo AA NBFC - Repo

50

150

250

350

450

550

650

Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Latest

Spreads - 5years ( in bps )

GSec - Repo AAA PSU - Repo AAA HFC - Repo AA NBFC - Repo

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4343

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44

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4545•

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4646

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4747

18.4%

13.1%

9.6% 9.0%7.5%

2

Key Figures

3 4 5

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4848

Retail Agent

Nippon Life Group

Nippon Life

Mitsui Life

(82.6%)Revenues from insurance and

reinsurance premiums (FY2017):

$6.3bn

Domestic Insurance Business Overseas Insurance BusinessAsset Management Business

Source: Company filings, SNL Notes: USD1=JPY108.64; USD1=INR67.48; USD1=EUR0.86; USD1=AUD1.32; USD1=THB31.99; USD1=IDR13,895 (as of May 31, 2018)1. To be renamed to Nippon Wealth Life in Jan. 20192. AUM represents the average of Jan. – Mar. 20193. Held by Nippon Life’s fully owned subsidiary NLI US Investments4. 68.34% held by Nippon Life’s equity-method affiliate PT Sequis, in which Nippon Life holds 29.26% of the total voting rights. 0.01% is held directly by Nippon Life.5. Launched a preparing company in July. 2018

Reliance Nippon

Life Asset

Management

(42.9%)AUM (2019): $ 60bn2

MLC Life Insurance

(80.0%)Revenues from insurance and

reinsurance premiums (FY2017): $1.8bn

Bangkok LifeAssurance

(24.2%)GWP (FY2017):$1.3bn

PT Asuransi Jiwa Sequis Life

(68.3% by Nippon Life’s affiliate4)GWP (FY2017):$0.2bn

Life Salon

(98.5%)

Life Plaza Partners

(100.0%)

HOKEN110

(100.0%)

Nissay Asset Management

(100.0%)AUM (2017/3): $98.4bn

Post Advisory Group (20.0% by subsidiary3)

AUM (2017/12): $16.8bn

Nippon Life Insurance

Company of America

(97.0%)

Reliance Nippon

Life Insurance

(49.0%)GWP (FY2017): $0.5bn

MassMutual Life1

(85.1%)Revenues from insurance and

reinsurance premiums (FY2017):

$2.1bn

The TCW Group

(24.8% by subsidiary3)AUM (2018/3): $202.0bn

DWS Group

(5.0%)AUM (2017/12): $817.1bn

(New Life Insurance Company)5

(100%)

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4949Nippon Life has increased its stake to 75% on Sep 27th 2019

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5050

Why you should look at dedicated Indian Fund Manager Like us. Our Team!!!!!Local on ground experience matters and makes a huge difference

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51

6

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5252

52

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5353

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5454

GROWTH

VALUATIONSLow Value High Value

High Growth High Value

Low Growth High ValueLow Growth Low Value

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5555

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565656 of 19

Investment Universe

Sell-Side

Research

1000-1500 Management

Meetings Every Year

Proprietary In-House

Research of RAMS and

RNAM

56

Investment universe

MUST “FIVE”

Management QualityBusiness potentialTrack RecordCorporate GovernancePerception

EVALUATION

Competitive advantagePotential TriggersFinancial AnalysisAbsolute valuationPeer comparison DECISION MAKING

WATCHLIST

PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

LiquiditySector exposurePortfolio BetaRisk Management

PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

News flowMonitoringQuarterly ReviewsSell discipline

Triggered due to change in stock price and/or data point.

MACRO-INPUTS

Do we buy the stock ?

BUY it Now

Yes

Yes

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5757

»

»

»

»

»

»

»

»

»

»

»

»

»

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5858

58

Launched in March 2016- Current AUM USD 232 mn

Market Cap Weightage

Large Cap 55%

Mid Cap 19%

Small Cap 14%

Cash 5%

Daily Dealing Fund USD & GBP Share Class

Currently the portfolio holds 33 stocks

Large Cap : Greater than USD 4.5bn, Mid Cap: USD 4.5bn-USD1.5bn, Small Cap Less than USD 1.5bn

Top 10 Holding

Infosys Ltd 7.8%

HDFC Bank 5.9%

Reliance Industries 5.2%

ICICI Bank 4.2%

Tata Consultancy 3.6%

State Bank of India 3.1%

Axis Bank 3.1%

Varun Beverages 3.2%

Bajaj Finance 2.8%

ACC Ltd 2.8%

1%

2%

4%

5%

5%

7%

8%

9%

10%

14%

29%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Real Estate

Utilities

Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Energy

Health Care

Materials

Consumer Staples

Industrials

Information Technology

Financials

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GICS Classification but some stocks adjusted for their business hence the sector exposure different from factsheet

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Actively tracked the consumer companies in India driven by 3Ps- Penetration, Premiumisation and Per Capita Income. Organized retail penetration in India today stands at only ~20%. Increasing middle income population, greater purchasing, better access and availability of products, higher brand consciousness, increasing urbanization and increasing digitization are key drivers for strong growth of branded and organized retail

ABFRL is India’s largest pure-play Fashion and Lifestyle Company with a strong bouquet of leading fashion brands and retail formats. The company has a reach of ~2200 brand stores, over 5,000 multi-brand outlets and 4,000+ points of sale in department stores across the country. Actively tracked this company for last many years even before it was carved out from

AB Nuvo and owned it in domestic portfolios.

In Dec 2018 the company had grown in last 2 years with topline at 15% CAGR to USD 1.2bn. Have also launched Fat fashion brands Forverer 21 and Ted Baker into India.

Triggers for entering the portfolio [ Dec 2018]• Company has delivered consistent earnings growth for last few quarters and Panataloon turned profitable on EBITDA level. •Innerwear business has scaled up to USD 14mn and expected to grow to USD 70mn in 3 years• Company Growth : Expected the company to grow it sales at 15-17%% CAGR and PAT by 40% over next 2 years to USD 33mn.•Distribution Expansion: Expanded the innerwear business network to 12000 outlets in a short time. Expect to reach 20,000 outlets by FY20. Also will add 40-50 Pantaloons store every year on a base of 302 stores. •Pantaloon: Change of store mix to improve EBIDTA. Mean reversion of pricing and store ramp ups to drive SGG recovery•Margin Expansion: Pantaloon currently makes just 7% margin which can go upto 10% due to economies of scale and Madura can gro w to 13% from 11%. • Valuations : At INR 210 it is trading at 16x FY21e EV/EBITDA and still offers a good opportunity

Our Entry point

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Britannia- Largest biscuit company and future Mondelez of India

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Actively tracked the consumer companies in India driven by 3Ps- Penetration, Premiumisation and Per Capita Income. Consumption of biscuits, was at an average of 2.1kg per person which is one- fifth that of developed countries

Britannia with 38% market share is the largest biscuit company. Actively tracked this company for last many years and owned it in domestic portfolios.

In March 16 the company had grown in last 3 years with topline at 12% CAGR to USD 1.3bn but profit tripling to USD 130mn.

Triggers for entering the portfolio [ April 2016]• Industry Growth: India’s biscuits market was valued at (USD4.25bn) as on FY17, and was expected to grow at an annual rate of 10-11% CAGR between 2017 -2022. • Company Growth : Expected the company to grow it sales at 10% CAGR and PAT by 15% over next 3 years to USD 1.8bn and 200mn respectively .•Distribution Expansion: From 4.6mn outlets to 5.8mn outlets. •Margin Expansion: Premiumisation . Britannia makes 15% Vs Nestle India20% . • Valuations : At INR 1500 was trading at 40x 1 yr forward. RoE 30%+ , FCF generation

Why do still own it inspite of 90% appreciation?• Sales is still just USD 1.6bn Vs Mondelez USD 27bn. • At 50x 1 year forward PE is in line with sector/peers and Profit can again double from here in next 4-5 years to USD 300mn

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Source: Bloomberg Data as of January 11, 2018

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Return Drivers

Fixed Income Returns Drivers

Period Category Carry Duration

Spread widening/

Compression

3-6 Months High Grade

High Yield

12 months High Grade

High Yield

24 Months High Grade

High Yield

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Share Class and ISIN ISIN

Management

Fee

Minimum

Investment (Base

Currency)

EAA OE India Equity- Morningstar Category

RAMS EPF India Equities Port A GBP LU1313565951 1.50 10,000.00

RAMS EPF India Equities Port A USD LU1248241686 1.50 10,000.00

RAMS EPF India Equities Port I USD LU1251112626 1.25 250,000.00

RAMS EPF India Equities Port J USD LU1387764258 0.80 25,000,000.00

RAMS EPF India Equities Port RDR GBP LU1313566413 1.25 10,000.00

RAMS EPF India Equities Port RDR USD LU1251113434 1.25 10,000.00

RAMS EPF India Equities Port Euro LU1515376009 1.25 10,000.00

Share Class and ISIN ISIN

Management

Fee

Minimum

Investment (Base

Currency)

RAMS India Fixed Income J USD IE00BFYGTN48 0.80 25,000,000.00

RAMS India Fixed Income A USD IE00BFYGTQ78 1.20 500.00

RAMS India Fixed Income I USD IE00BFYGTS92 1.00 100,000.00

RAMS India Fixed Income RDR USD IE00BFYGTR85 1.00 500.00

RAMS India Fixed Income RDR GBP IE00BFYGTP61 1.00 500.00

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Partnership is our Strength : Our Reach

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Name EducationResponsibility / Title (e.g., CIO / Fund

Manager / Analyst, etc.)

No. of Years with the

firm

No. of Years in

industry

CIO / Head - Equity / Fund Managers

Manish Gunwani B.Tech, PGDM CIO - Equity Investments 1 Year 21 Years

Sailesh Raj Bhan MBA, CFA (ICFAI) Deputy CIO - Equity Investments 15 Years 23 Years

Ashwani Kumar B.Sc., MBA Sr. Fund Manager - Investment Equity 16 Years 26 years

Meenakshi Dawar B.Tech and MBA (IIM Ahmedabad) Fund Manager - Equity 2 years 9 Years

Jahnvee Shah BHsc, PGEP-Biz. Co- Fund Manager - Equity 13 Years 14 Years

Samir Rachh B.Com Fund Manager - Equity 11 Years 27 Years

Sanjay Parekh B.com, CA, Senior Fund Manager - Equity 7 Years 24 Years

Sanjay Doshi CA Fund Manager - Equity 8 Years 14 Years

Ashutosh Bhargava B.Com,MBA,CFA Head- Equity Research & Fund Manager 11 Years 13 Years

Kinjal Desai BA, MSC Economics /CFA Fund Manager- Overseas Investments 6 Years 7 Years

Dhrumil Gautam Shah B.Com, CA Assistant Fund Manager- Equity 1 year 12 years

Vinay Sharma B.Arch, PGDCM IIM Calcutta, CFA Fund Manager- Equity 1 year 14 Years

Sulabj Jhajharia B Tech , MBA [ NUS ] CFA Portfolio Manager- Singapore 12 years 12 years

CIO / Head - Fixed Income / Fund Managers

Amit Tripathi B.Com (H), PGDM CIO - Fixed Income Investments 15 Years 21 Years

Anju Chhajer B.com, CA Sr. Fund Manager - Fixed Income 11 Years 22 Years

Prashant Raghunath Pimple MBA (Finance) CTM (ICFAI) Sr. Fund Manager - Fixed Income 10 Years 19 Years

Vivek Sharma BE, PGDBM Fund Manager - Fixed Income 13 Years 13 Years

Siddharth Gautam Deb B.Sc, MMS Fund Manager - Fixed Income 2 Year 12 Years

Sushil Hari Prasad Budhia CA Senior Fund Manager - Fixed Income Less than 1 year 18 Years

Viral Bhuta B.E., MBA (Finance from Boston] Portfolio Manager- Singapore 3 Years 13 Years

Equity - Research Analysts

Yatin Matta Master Of Finance & Control Research Analyst 8 Years 8 Years

Varun Goenka BBA Research Analyst - Equity 8 Years 14 Years

Aishwarya Deepak Agrawal CA Fund Manager & Sr. Research Analyst 5 Years 18 Years

Pratibh Agarwal B.Tech, M.Tech Research Associate 5 Years 9 Years

Arjun Sengar BA, M.Sc Research Associate 5 Years 5 Years

Bhavik Dave BBA, PGDBM Research Associate 4 Years 6 Years

Piyush Kumar Pandey B.tech, PGDBM Research Associate 4 Years 9 Years

Tejas Sheth PGDBA Co-Fund Manager & Research Analyst - Equity4 Years 13 Years

Abhinav Bhandari BBA, PGDBM Research Analyst - Equity 4 Years 11 Years

Shivaji Mehta BA, PGPM (Finance) Research Analyst 3 Years 7 Years

Yash Girija Dayal B. Tech. (Electronics & Telecommunication) Research Associate 2 years 4 Years

Akshay Sharma MBA Finance Quant Analyst 3 Years 3 Years

Akash Surendra Pipara B.Com, PGDM Associate Research Analyst 1 Year 3 Years

Prateek Poddar B.Com, CA Research Analyst Less than 1 year 5 Years

Nikhil Vijay Rungta CA, FRM, MBA Research Analyst - Equity Less than 1 year 11 Years

Manish Kayal CA,CFA Research Analyst - Equity Less than 1 year 14 Years

Fixed Income - Research Analysts

Vikash Rungta B.Com, CA (Inter), CS (Inter), CFA, GARP Head Credit Research - Fixed Income 12 years 15 Years

Ashish Jalan B.com, PGPM, CA Senior Credit Analyst 5 Years 9 Years

Nitu Kothari B.com, PGPM, CA Associate Credit Research 15 Years 17 years

Akshat Bordia B.com, CA, CS Credit Analyst 3 Years 4 Years

Saurabh Kabra B.com, CA, CS Credit Analyst 1 Year 6 Years

Aradhana Singh B.com, CA, CS Credit Analyst 1 Year 2 years

Varun Milind Nabar B.com, CA Credit Analyst Less than 1 year 2 years

Jyoti Arun Kumar Sawal B.com, Cs Credit Analyst Less than 1 year 1 year

Ateet Nagar Bansal B.com, CA, CS, PGDM Finance Credit Analyst Less than 1 year 11 Years

Equity - Dealer

Anand Devendra Gupta B.com, MBA - Finance Vice President - Dealing (Equity) 11 years 25 years

Rohit Hashmukh Shah B.com, CA/FRM Dealer - ETF 6 years 7 Years

Nemish Hemant Sheth PGDBM- Finance Dealer- Equity & ETF Less than 1 year 9 Years

Fixed Income - Dealer

Hardik Bharat Shah BE, PGDBM Dealer - Fixed Income 5 Years 9 Years

Sharmila Sawant B.A,MBA. Dealer - Fixed Income 11 Years 18 Years


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