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Reserving For Mortgage Insurance and Title Insurance
in a Stressed Real Estate Market
Joseph L. Petrelli, ACAS, MAAA, FCA
President
Demotech, Inc.
Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Source: freddiemac.com – through June 2008
Year Rate Year Rate Year Rate
1973 8.04 1985 12.43 1997 7.60
1974 9.19 1986 10.19 1998 6.94
1975 9.05 1987 10.21 1999 7.44
1976 8.87 1988 10.34 2000 8.05
1977 8.85 1989 10.32 2001 6.97
1978 9.64 1990 10.13 2002 6.54
1979 11.20 1991 9.25 2003 5.83
1980 13.74 1992 8.39 2004 5.84
1981 16.63 1993 7.31 2005 5.87
1982 16.04 1994 8.38 2006 6.41
1983 13.24 1995 7.93 2007 6.34
1984 13.88 1996 7.81 2008* 5.99
Source: freddiemac.com - through June 2008
Average Commitment Rate On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages
Refinance Percentage of Mortgage Applications
Source: freddiemac.com - through May 2008
Year Percent Year Percent1987 31 1998 521988 21 1999 291989 24 2000 241990 26 2001 571991 45 2002 591992 52 2003 651993 58 2004 461994 27 2005 441995 22 2006 431996 30 2007 411997 31 2008* 50
Source: freddiemac.com - through May 2008
Refinance Percentage of Mortgage Applications
Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes
Source: realestateabc.com & realtor.org - through May 2008
Year Price Year Price Year Price
1968 $20,100 1982 $67,800 1996 $115,800
1969 $21,300 1983 $70,300 1997 $121,800
1970 $23,000 1984 $72,400 1998 $128,400
1971 $24,800 1985 $75,500 1999 $133,300
1972 $26,700 1986 $80,300 2000 $139,000
1973 $28,900 1987 $85,600 2001 $147,800
1974 $32,000 1988 $89,300 2002 $156,200
1975 $35,300 1989 $89,500 2003 $169,500
1976 $38,100 1990 $92,000 2004 $195,200
1977 $42,900 1991 $97,100 2005 $219,000
1978 $48,700 1992 $99,700 2006 $221,900
1979 $55,700 1993 $103,100 2007 $217,900
1980 $62,200 1994 $107,200 2008Q1 $196,300
1981 $66,400 1995 $110,500 2008Q2* $208,600
Source: realestateabc.com & realtor.org - through May 2008
Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes
Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates
Source: allcountries.org & mortgagebankers.org
Year Delinquency Foreclosure Year Delinquency Foreclosure Year Delinquency Foreclosure
1970 3.1 0.3 1983 5.6 0.8 1996 4.3 1.0
1971 3.5 0.5 1984 5.7 0.9 1997 4.3 1.1
1972 3.7 0.5 1985 5.8 1.0 1998 4.4 1.1
1973 4.1 N/A 1986 5.6 1.2 1999 4.1 1.1
1974 4.2 0.5 1987 5.0 1.3 2000 4.4 1.2
1975 4.4 0.4 1988 4.8 1.2 2001 5.1 1.5
1976 4.6 0.4 1989 4.8 1.0 2002 5.1 1.5
1977 4.5 0.4 1990 4.7 0.9 2003 4.7 1.3
1978 4.6 0.4 1991 5.0 1.0 2004 4.5 1.2
1979 4.6 0.4 1992 4.6 1.0 2005 4.5 1.0
1980 5.0 0.5 1993 4.2 1.0 2006 5.0 1.2
1981 5.3 0.5 1994 4.1 0.9 2007 5.8 2.0
1982 5.5 0.8 1995 4.3 0.9 2008Q1 6.4 2.5
Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates
Source: allcountries.org & mortgagebankers.org
Title Insurance Direct Premiums Written
Source: Demotech, Inc. Form 9 Database
Year Direct Premiums Written
1993 $5,318,073,1651994 $5,352,518,2361995 $4,285,437,4951996 $5,047,272,2101997 $5,529,108,7551998 $7,532,339,6391999 $8,109,007,9592000 $7,280,711,3762001 $9,120,633,3862002 $11,981,083,8662003 $15,695,909,5592004 $15,534,839,9502005 $16,835,154,2822006 $16,435,636,9042007 $14,061,278,822
Title Insurance Direct Premiums Written ($Billions)
Source: Demotech, Inc. Form 9 Database
Source: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Information derived from a Highline Data product (Companies as of 7/16/08).
Private Mortgage Insurance Direct Premiums Written
Year Direct Premiums Written
2001 $4,129,925,000
2002 $4,528,933,000
2003 $4,979,164,000
2004 $5,030,963,000
2005 $5,190,562,000
2006 $5,413,845,000
2007 $6,152,079,536
Private Mortgage Insurance Direct Premiums Written ($Billions)
Source: The National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Information derived from a Highline Data product (Companies as of 7/16/08).