Review of the 2000 Review of the 2000 Regional Airport System Regional Airport System

Plan — Part2Plan — Part2

October 27, 2006October 27, 2006

Last MeetingLast Meeting

• Reviewed RAPC’s RoleReviewed RAPC’s Role

• Reviewed RASP Forecasts and Airport Reviewed RASP Forecasts and Airport ConstraintsConstraints

• Reviewed 2000 RASP Analysis of:Reviewed 2000 RASP Analysis of:– New Air Traffic Control TechnologyNew Air Traffic Control Technology– Demand ManagementDemand Management

This MeetingThis Meeting

• Other alternatives to new runways:Other alternatives to new runways:– Development of air service at other airports Development of air service at other airports

(“Regionalization of air service”)(“Regionalization of air service”)

– New roles for general aviation airportsNew roles for general aviation airports

– High Speed RailHigh Speed Rail

Air Passenger Growth Air Passenger Growth in the Bay Area in the Bay Area

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Ann

ual P

asse

nger

s (M

il)

Bay Area

Historic Airport SharesHistoric Airport Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Per

cen

t o

f P

AX

SFO

OAK

SJC

General Issues with General Issues with Development of New Development of New ServiceService• Size of market; revenue potentialSize of market; revenue potential

• Airline costs Airline costs

• Community support/sponsorshipCommunity support/sponsorship

• Required airport improvementsRequired airport improvements

• Delays, fees at other airportsDelays, fees at other airports

Likely Markets for Likely Markets for New Air ServiceNew Air Service• LA Basin (Sonoma, starting in 2007, LA Basin (Sonoma, starting in 2007,

Monterey)Monterey)

• San Diego (Monterey)San Diego (Monterey)

• Seattle (Sonoma, starting in 2007)Seattle (Sonoma, starting in 2007)

• Las Vegas (Stockton, Palmdale*)Las Vegas (Stockton, Palmdale*)

• Phoenix (Monterey)Phoenix (Monterey)

* Since discontinued* Since discontinued

Things that Could Things that Could Change in the FutureChange in the Future• Increasing congestion/costs at existing Increasing congestion/costs at existing

airportsairports

• Population/job growth in outer ringPopulation/job growth in outer ring

• Community economic goalsCommunity economic goals

• New airlines/equipment specializing in New airlines/equipment specializing in service to small marketsservice to small markets

• Local subsidies for new airlinesLocal subsidies for new airlines

A New North Bay A New North Bay AirportAirport• 4 North Bay counties generate about 4 North Bay counties generate about

10% of Bay Area air passengers10% of Bay Area air passengers

• A conceptual alternative A conceptual alternative — — no site for no site for new airport has been identified, high new airport has been identified, high cost, environmental issuescost, environmental issues

• RASP finding RASP finding —— could reduce flights at could reduce flights at SFO and OAK by 2-3.5%SFO and OAK by 2-3.5%

Travis AFBTravis AFB

• Joint use studied in 1976Joint use studied in 1976

• RASP expressed a continuing regional RASP expressed a continuing regional interest in Travis; land use protection interest in Travis; land use protection keykey

• Three roles considered:Three roles considered:– Satellite airport for SW-type serviceSatellite airport for SW-type service– InternationalInternational– Air cargoAir cargo

RASP ConclusionsRASP Conclusions

• Continued military use likelyContinued military use likely

• International and air cargo service International and air cargo service problematicproblematic

• Local air passenger market limited, Local air passenger market limited, but growingbut growing

• A regional rail connection would make A regional rail connection would make airport more accessible airport more accessible

Moffett Federal Moffett Federal AirfieldAirfield• NASA operatesNASA operates

• RASP evaluated for passenger, air RASP evaluated for passenger, air cargo, cargo, and corporate GA useand corporate GA use

• RASP expressed a continuing regional RASP expressed a continuing regional interestinterest

• Future availability uncertainFuture availability uncertain

RASP ConclusionsRASP Conclusions

• SJC is constrained in the long-termSJC is constrained in the long-term

• Strong air passenger and air cargo Strong air passenger and air cargo demand in South Baydemand in South Bay

• Airspace interactions with SJCAirspace interactions with SJC

• Local community issuesLocal community issues

• Potential environmental issuesPotential environmental issues

Limited Airline Service Limited Airline Service at GA Airportsat GA Airports• A number of GA airports could A number of GA airports could

potentially accommodate Regional Jetspotentially accommodate Regional Jets

• Airspace issues for some airportsAirspace issues for some airports

• Most local markets would support Most local markets would support limited service in 2010/2020limited service in 2010/2020

• Community interest is keyCommunity interest is key

• Noise impactsNoise impacts

Regional JetRegional Jet

Potential General Aviation Airline Service Airports

RASP ConclusionsRASP Conclusions

• RJ service at multiple GA airports would RJ service at multiple GA airports would reduce flights at major airports a little:reduce flights at major airports a little:– SFO (1%)SFO (1%)

– OAK/SJC (4-5%) OAK/SJC (4-5%)

• Would result in a net increase in flights, Would result in a net increase in flights, as RJ’s replace larger aircraftas RJ’s replace larger aircraft

General Aviation General Aviation Reliever AirportsReliever Airports• Purpose would be to divert small Purpose would be to divert small

aircraft to GA airportsaircraft to GA airports

• GA use of air carrier runway capacity GA use of air carrier runway capacity could grow to 5-8% of flights could grow to 5-8% of flights

• New “micro jets” could shift some New “micro jets” could shift some traffic operating as air taxistraffic operating as air taxis

RASP ConclusionsRASP Conclusions

• Some GA users would continue to use Some GA users would continue to use air carrier runways due to convenienceair carrier runways due to convenience

• Pricing strategies to limit GA would Pricing strategies to limit GA would need to meet federal discrimination need to meet federal discrimination teststests

• Corporate GA users may pay the priceCorporate GA users may pay the price

High Speed RailHigh Speed Rail

• In planning stages, but no guaranteed In planning stages, but no guaranteed fundingfunding

• Diversion from air to rail depends on Diversion from air to rail depends on fares, travel time, reliability, security fares, travel time, reliability, security proceduresprocedures

• New ridership/alignment studies New ridership/alignment studies underwayunderway

California High Speed Rail Routes

RASP ConclusionsRASP Conclusions

• A system that connects Bay Area with A system that connects Bay Area with LA, Central Valley, and San Diego could LA, Central Valley, and San Diego could reduce Bay Area airport demand:reduce Bay Area airport demand:– SFO: 4-7%SFO: 4-7%

– OAK: 5-9%OAK: 5-9%

– SJC: 7-13%SJC: 7-13%

New ConsiderationsNew Considerations

• Initial system would only connect LA Initial system would only connect LA and and San FranciscoSan Francisco

• Route for entry into Bay Area would Route for entry into Bay Area would affect demandaffect demand

• No funding for HSR in Infrastructure No funding for HSR in Infrastructure bond on November 2006 ballotbond on November 2006 ballot

• HSR security requirementsHSR security requirements

UpcomingUpcoming

• Tour of Northern Calif TRACONTour of Northern Calif TRACON

– January:January: Aviation Trends Panel Aviation Trends Panel

– February:February: New Technology Panel New Technology Panel

– April:April: Demand Management Panel Demand Management Panel

– June:June: New Institutional Concepts/ New Institutional Concepts/Multi-Airport Authority PanelMulti-Airport Authority Panel