1 RFNC REPORT: 2020 NC SENATE RACES TO WATCH NC SENATE 2020 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. Democrats have a clear path to win majorities in both chambers of the legislature after historic pickups last cycle broke Republican supermajorities. With a decennial census and subsequent redistricting coming up, control of the legislature will impact not only the next two years, but also the next decade of North Carolina policy. Competitive races for Governor and a US Senate seat are gaining significant media attention and the state looks to once again be a key presidential battleground. In totality, these races represent major change from last cycle’s blue moon election with no top of the ticket races. This report highlights the 27 House and 14 Senate districts most likely to be competitive this cycle. This assessment incorporates candidate fundraising information where available, detailed analysis of new legislative districts (including past Democratic performance and demographic information), and other qualitative data about each candidate. Expect the list to shift as the election approaches and new information becomes available. These are analyses, not endorsements: these are races that could be competitive in the general election, but this report shouldn't be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another. Below, take a closer look at the 14 Senate seats, six of which would be Democratic pickups and four of which would be Republican pickups. Democrats need to pick up a net five seats to win a majority in the Senate. NOTE: Campaign finance information in this report includes election-to-date totals through February 15, 2020. Candidates missing campaign finance information below had not reported to NCSBE at the time this report was published. We will update this report when new campaign finance data becomes available this summer. Visit our website at realfactsnc.com for regular updates. COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS Amount Raised Cash on Hand SENATE DISTRICT 1 Incumbent Republican Bob Steinburg, in his first term in the NC Senate after leaving the NC House, wants to hold onto his seat for another term, but he’ll face a strong challenge from Democrat Tess Judge, a local businesswoman with a long history of public service and charitable work in the community. Judge $11,117.35 $8,670 Steinburg $82,108.76 $30,937.05 SENATE DISTRICT 7 Republican Jim Perry, appointed in January 2019 after popular incumbent Louis Pate resigned due to declining health, faces Democrat Donna Lake, a retired Air Force veteran and professor at ECU College of Nursing. Lake $46,409.99 $43,551.22 Perry $671,999.89 $455,550.76 Steinburg Republican Democrat Open Perry Peterson Britt deViere McInnis Garrett Newton Searcy Krawiec 11 18 24 39
Transcript
1
RFNC REPORT: 2020 NC SENATE RACES TO WATCH
NC SENATE2020 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. Democrats have a clear path to win majorities in both chambers of the legislature after historic pickups last cycle broke Republican supermajorities. With a decennial census and subsequent redistricting coming up, control of the legislature will impact not only the next two years, but also the next decade of North Carolina policy. Competitive races for Governor and a US Senate seat are gaining significant media attention and the state looks to once again be a key presidential battleground. In totality, these races represent major change from last cycle’s blue moon election with no top of the ticket races.
This report highlights the 27 House and 14 Senate districts most likely to be competitive this cycle. This assessment incorporates candidate fundraising information where available, detailed analysis of new legislative districts (including past Democratic performance and demographic information), and other qualitative data about each candidate. Expect the list to shift as the election approaches and new information becomes available.
These are analyses, not endorsements: these are races that could be competitive in the general election, but this report shouldn't be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another.
Below, take a closer look at the 14 Senate seats, six of which would be Democratic pickups and four of which would be Republican pickups. Democrats need to pick up a net five seats to win a majority in the Senate.
NOTE: Campaign finance information in this report includes election-to-date totals through February 15, 2020. Candidates missing campaign finance information below had not reported to NCSBE at the time this report was published. We will update this report when new campaign finance data becomes available this summer. Visit our website at realfactsnc.com for regular updates.
COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS Amount Raised Cash on Hand
SENATE DISTRICT 1Incumbent Republican Bob Steinburg, in his first term in the NC Senate after leaving the NC House, wants to hold onto his seat for another term, but he’ll face a strong challenge from Democrat Tess Judge, a local businesswoman with a long history of public service and charitable work in the community.
Judge $11,117.35
$8,670
Steinburg $82,108.76$30,937.05
SENATE DISTRICT 7Republican Jim Perry, appointed in January 2019 after popular incumbent Louis Pate resigned due to declining health, faces Democrat Donna Lake, a retired Air Force veteran and professor at ECU College of Nursing. Lake
$46,409.99$43,551.22
Perry $671,999.89$455,550.76
Steinburg
RepublicanDemocratOpen
Perry
PetersonBritt
deViereMcInnis
Garrett
Newton
Searcy
Krawiec11
1824
39
2
SENATE DISTRICT 9Incumbent Democrat Harper Peterson, a former Wilmington Mayor, will seek reelection to this New Hanover county Senate seat. Peterson faces a rematch with Republican Mike Lee, an attorney he defeated in 2018. Peterson
$185,190.24$110,092.52
Lee $156,352.92$122,757.93
SENATE DISTRICT 11This seat was left open after Republican Rick Horner decided not to seek reelection in this redrawn district. Democrats Allen Wellons, attorney and former state Senator, faces Republican Lisa Stone Barnes, who currently represents Nash and Franklin Counties in the NC House. Barnes emerged the clear winner in a three-way GOP primary.
Wellons $74,570.84$19,358.85
Barnes $88,050
$30,109.49
SENATE DISTRICT 13Popular Incumbent Republican Danny Britt will seek election to this seat in Columbus and Robeson counties for a third time despite rumors he might run for Congress. Democrat Barbara Yates-Lockamy, an educator and longtime school board member, will challenge Britt.
Yates-Lockamy $323.41
$2,600.09
Britt $126,649.46$102,870.78
SENATE DISTRICT 17Incumbent Democrat Sam Searcy, a distillery owner, will seek reelection in this suburban Wake county district. Republican Mark Cavaliero and a Libertarian candidate have also filed for this seat. Searcy
$308,307.03$541.89
Cavaliero $15,345.64$8,500.60
SENATE DISTRICT 18Republican John Alexander retired following the redraw of this district, leaving this seat open. Republican Larry Norman, a Franklin County attorney, is vying to replace Alexander as the only Republican in the Wake delegation. Democrat Sarah Crawford, an eastern Wake County native with a career dedicated to nonprofits, could stand in the way. A Libertarian candidate is also seeking this seat.
Crawford $137,001.84$72,187.94
Norman $640
$133.12
SENATE DISTRICT 19Incumbent Democrat Kirk deViere, an Army veteran and small business owner, will face a rematch with Republican Wesley Meredith, a Fayetteville-area lawn care company owner who deViere beat in a close election in 2018. deViere
$113,836.56$53,256.17
Meredith $54,051
$39,486.20
Amount Raised Cash on Hand
3
SENATE DISTRICT 24Incumbent Republican Rick Gunn announced his retirement in November, so Democrat JD Wooten, an Air Force veteran and attorney, will take on Republican Amy Galey in this Alamance and Guilford-based district. Galey is currently Chair of the Alamance County Commission.
Wooten $41,744.94$16,452.50
Galey $94,938.57$100,975.82
SENATE DISTRICT 25Incumbent Republican Tom McInnis faces a rematch with Democrat Helen Probst Mills, a breast cancer survivor and small business owner, in this district made up of Anson, Moore, Richmond and Scotland counties. Mills
$96,968.39$60,554.21
McInnis $60,085.43$84,798.82
SENATE DISTRICT 27Incumbent Democrat Michael Garrett, who beat unpopular Republican incumbent Trudy Wade in 2018, faces a challenge from Republican Sebastian King, a former NCGA staffer and Republican activist. Garrett
$135,761.29$63,395.90
King $22,073.30$16,160.73
SENATE DISTRICT 31Incumbent Republican Joyce Krawiec is a longtime Republican and Tea Party activist. Redistricting put this Forsyth and Yadkin county district in play for the first time since she’s been elected. Democrat Terri LeGrand, an attorney who now works to ensure students have the resources to attend college, will challenge Krawiec.
LeGrand$172,649.55$148,623.23
Krawiec$67,490.16
$122,487.59
SENATE DISTRICT 36Incumbent Republican Paul Newton will seek reelection to this seat which includes Cabarrus County and part of Union county. He faces a challenge from Democrat Marcus Singleton, an Army veteran and a pastor in the United Methodist Church. Singleton
$3,885$0
Newton$68,076.71$52,731.68
SENATE DISTRICT 39This seat was vacated by Republican Dan Bishop following his election to Congress. Democrat DeAndrea Salvador, a fifth generation Charlottean, economist, and environmental justice advocate, is seeking this seat. Meanwhile, Republican Josh Niday, who ran unsuccessfully for NC House in 2018, is hoping to hold onto this seat for the GOP.
