Date post: | 21-Jan-2018 |
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Actively Navigating the Markets
Richard TemperleyHead of Investment Development
Zurich Life Assurance
Clayton Hotel, CorkThursday, 23rd February, 2017
Short term noise, shouldn’t impact long term objectives!
“The Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”
- Warren Buffett
Warning: This information does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. It has been provided for discussion purposes only. You should seek professional investment advice with your financial adviser
Noise or not noise?
1. Crises in China - Autumn 2015
2. Oil / commodities – Winter/ Spring 2015
3. Brexit – Summer 2016
4. Trump – Winter 2016 / Spring 2017
5. Euro crises 2017?
What should you establish in order to invest with an optimal return?
4
1. Your investment time horizon
2. Your risk/volatility capacity
3. Your personal risk/volatility preference
4. You need to know that your asset allocation decision is the key determinant of your returns
Warning: This information does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. It has been provided for discussion purposes only. You should seek professional investment advice with your financial adviser
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-1
6
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Cash
Alternatives
Property
Short Bond Fund
Active Fixed Income
Equities
The evolution of the AAA fund
The end of the 35 year bong bull market?
10 year bond yields
Source: FactSet, Tullett Prebon, JP Morgan
Asset Management
Start of rotation from bonds into equities?
Plenty of scope for the trade to continue…
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global
Equity market valuations
Source: Citi, Zurich Life
Weight P/E EPS YoY %
2016e 2017e 2016e 2017e
Global 100 18.4 16.3 2.7 13.0
North America
57 20.3 18.3 2.3 11.1
UK 6 17.7 14.7 3.6 20.6
Europe ex-UK 14 17.4 15.2 -1.0 15.5
Japan 8 16.4 14.9 9.1 12.1
Asia ex- Japan 12 15.5 13.5 -0.4 14.8
What can we do to navigate this market in 2017?
18
1. Be aware of your exposures to bonds within your portfolio and be realistic about future returns.
2. Avoid the mistakes of the past i.e. concentration of investment risk
3. Remain well diversified i.e. multi-asset, globally diversified
4. Stick to your plan
Warning: This information does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. It has been provided for discussion purposes only. You should seek professional investment advice with your financial advisor
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.Warning: Benefits may be affected by changes in currency exchange rates.Warning: The value of your investment may go down as well as up.Warning: If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest.
“What we have learned from the past is that we have not learned from the past”
- Warren Buffett
abm financial advisers limited and Zurich Life Assurance plc are regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland