RETURN DAN RISIKO
Puput Tri Komalasari
Defining ReturnDefining ReturnDefining ReturnDefining Return
Income received Income received on an investment plus on an investment plus any any change in market pricechange in market price, usually , usually
expressed as a percent of the expressed as a percent of the beginning market price beginning market price of the of the
investment.investment.
Income received Income received on an investment plus on an investment plus any any change in market pricechange in market price, usually , usually
expressed as a percent of the expressed as a percent of the beginning market price beginning market price of the of the
investment.investment.
Sources of Investment Sources of Investment ReturnsReturns
Investments provide two basic types of Investments provide two basic types of return:return:
Income returns(yield)Income returns(yield) The owner of an investment has the right to any The owner of an investment has the right to any
cash flows paid by the investment.cash flows paid by the investment. Changes in price or value (capital gain/loss)Changes in price or value (capital gain/loss)
The owner of an investment receives the benefit The owner of an investment receives the benefit of increases in value and bears the risk for any of increases in value and bears the risk for any decreases in value.decreases in value.
Total Return =Yield +Price ChangeTotal Return =Yield +Price Change
Income ReturnsIncome Returns
Cash payments, Cash payments, usually received usually received regularly over the regularly over the life of the life of the investment.investment.
Examples: Coupon Examples: Coupon interest payments interest payments from bonds, from bonds, Common and Common and preferred stock preferred stock dividend payments.dividend payments.
Returns From Changes Returns From Changes in Valuein Value
Investors also Investors also experience capital experience capital gains or losses as the gains or losses as the value of their value of their investment changes investment changes over time.over time.
For example, a stock For example, a stock may pay a $1 dividend may pay a $1 dividend while its value falls while its value falls from $30 to $25 over from $30 to $25 over the same time period.the same time period.
Measuring ReturnsMeasuring Returns Dollar ReturnsDollar Returns
How much money was made on an investment How much money was made on an investment over some period of time?over some period of time?
Total Dollar Return = Income + Price ChangeTotal Dollar Return = Income + Price Change Holding Period ReturnHolding Period Return
By dividing the Total Dollar Return by the By dividing the Total Dollar Return by the Purchase Price (or Beginning Price), we can Purchase Price (or Beginning Price), we can better gauge a return by incorporating the better gauge a return by incorporating the size of the investment made in order to get the size of the investment made in order to get the dollar return.dollar return.
Risk and Risk Premiums
P
DPPHPR0
101
HPR = Holding Period Return
P0 = Beginning price
P1 = Ending price
D1 = Dividend during period one
Rates of Return: Single Period
Return = Capital gain (loss) + yield
Return ExampleReturn Example
The stock price for Stock A was $10 per share 1 year ago. The stock is currently trading at $9.50 per share, and
shareholders just received a $1 dividend. What return was earned over the past year?
The stock price for Stock A was $10 per share 1 year ago. The stock is currently trading at $9.50 per share, and
shareholders just received a $1 dividend. What return was earned over the past year?
$1.00$1.00 + ($9.50$9.50 - $10.00$10.00 )$10.00$10.00RR = = 5%5%
For a Treasury security, what is For a Treasury security, what is the required rate of return?the required rate of return?
RequiredRequired
rate of rate of
returnreturn==
RequiredRequired
rate of rate of
returnreturn==
Risk-freeRisk-freerate ofrate ofreturnreturn
For a Treasury security, what is For a Treasury security, what is the required rate of return?the required rate of return?
Since Treasury’s are essentially Since Treasury’s are essentially free of free of default riskdefault risk, the rate of return on a , the rate of return on a Treasury security is considered the Treasury security is considered the
“risk-free”“risk-free” rate of return. rate of return.
RequiredRequired
rate of rate of
returnreturn==
For a For a corporate stock or bondcorporate stock or bond, what is , what is the required rate of return?the required rate of return?
RequiredRequired
rate of rate of
returnreturn==
Risk-freeRisk-freerate ofrate ofreturnreturn
For a For a corporate stock or bondcorporate stock or bond, what is , what is the required rate of return?the required rate of return?
RequiredRequired
rate of rate of
returnreturn==
Risk-freeRisk-freerate ofrate ofreturnreturn
++RiskRisk
PremiumPremium
For a For a corporate stock or bondcorporate stock or bond, what is , what is the required rate of return?the required rate of return?
How large of a risk premium How large of a risk premium should we require to buy a should we require to buy a
corporate security? corporate security?
ReturnsReturns
Expected ReturnExpected Return - the return - the return that an investor expects to that an investor expects to earn on an asset, given its earn on an asset, given its price, growth potential, etc.price, growth potential, etc.
Realized ReturnRealized Return - the return - the return that actually received or that actually received or earned by investor.earned by investor.
Determining Realized ReturnDetermining Realized Return
Total ReturnTotal Return Relative ReturnRelative Return Adjusted ReturnAdjusted Return
Determining Average ReturnDetermining Average Return Arithmetic Arithmetic
ReturnReturn Geometric Geometric
ReturnReturn
RELATIVE RETURN
Relative Return = Total Return + 1
DDtt + (PPtt - P - Pt-1t-1 )
PPt-1t-1
Relative Return = + 1
DDtt + PPtt
PPt-1t-1
Relative Return =
ADJUSTED RETURN
Return adjusted by inflation
(1 + R 1 + R )
(1 + IF)(1 + IF)RIA = - 1
INFLATION-INTEREST RATE RELATIONSHIP
• Factors Influencing Rates:1. Supply
o Households
2. Demand
o Businesses
3. Government’s Net Supply and/or Demand
o Federal Reserve Actions
Real and Nominal Rates of Interest Nominal interest rate Growth rate of your money
Real interest rate Growth rate of your purchasing power
If R is the nominal rate and r the real rate and i is the inflation rate (fisher effect):
Example: r = 3%, i = 6%R = 9% = 3% + 6% or r = 9% - 6% = 3%
Fisher effect: Exactr = (R - i) / (1 + i) = (9%-6%) / (1.06) = 2.83%
r R i
Equilibrium Real Rate of Interest
Determined by: Supply Demand Government actions Expected rate of inflation
Figure 5.1 Determination of the Equilibrium Real Rate of Interest
Equilibrium Nominal Rate of Interest As the inflation rate increases,
investors will demand higher nominal rates of return
If E(i) denotes current expectations of inflation, then we get the Fisher Equation:
( )R r E i
Taxes and the Real Rate of Interest
Tax liabilities are based on nominal income
Given a tax rate (t), nominal interest rate (R), after-tax interest rate is R(1-t)
Real after-tax rate is:
(1 ) ( )(1 ) (1 )R t i r i t i r t it
Annualized Returns
• If we have return or income/price change information over a time period in excess of one year, we usually want to annualize the rate of return in order to facilitate comparisons with other investment returns. We typically express all investment as an effective annual rate (EAR)
Examples:
Suppose prices of zero coupon bond treasuries with $100 face value and various maturities are as follows:
Horizon, T
Price Total Return
Risk-Free Return for Given Horizon
EAR
Half-year
$97.36(100/97.36) – 1
0.0271
2.71% 5.49%
1 year $95.52(100/95.52) – 1
0.0469
4.69% ?
25 years $23.30(100/23.30) – 1
3.2918
329.18% 6.0% Tf TrEAR /1)(11
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE RATES
Rates on short-term investments (T<1 year) often are annualized using simple rather than compound interest.
APR = n x rf(T)
Measuring Historic Returns Starting with annualized Holding
Period Returns, we often want to calculate some measure of the “average” return over time on an investment.
Two commonly used measures of average: Arithmetic Mean Geometric Mean
Arithmetic Mean Return The arithmetic mean is the “simple
average” of a series of returns. Calculated by summing all of the
returns in the series and dividing by the number of values.
RA = (HPR)/n Oddly enough, earning the arithmetic
mean return for n years is not generally equivalent to the actual amount of money earned by the investment over all n time periods.
Arithmetic Mean Example
Year Holding Period Return 1 10% 2 30% 3 -20% 4 0% 5 20%
RA = (HPR)/n = 40/5 = 8%
Geometric Mean Return
The geometric mean is the one return that, if earned in each of the n years of an investment’s life, gives the same total dollar result as the actual investment.
It is calculated as the nth root of the product of all of the n return relatives of the investment.
RG = [(Return Relatives)]1/n – 1
Geometric Mean Example
Year Holding Period Return Return Relative
1 10% 1.10 2 30% 1.30 3 -20% 0.80 4 0% 1.00 5 20% 1.20
RG = [(1.10)(1.30)(.80)(1.00)(1.20)]1/5 – 1
RG = .0654 or 6.54%
Arithmetic vs. Geometric
To ponder which is the superior measure, consider the same example with a $1000 initial investment. How much would be accumulated?
Year Holding Period Return Investment Value
1 10% $1,100 2 30% $1,430 3 -20% $1,144 4 0%$1,144 5 20% $1,373
Arithmetic vs. Geometric
How much would be accumulated if you earned the arithmetic mean over the same time period?
Value = $1,000 (1.08)5 = $1,469 How much would be accumulated if you
earned the geometric mean over the same time period?
Value = $1,000 (1.0654)5 = $1,373 Notice that only the geometric mean
gives the same return as the underlying series of returns.
Determining Expected Return (Discrete Dist.)Determining Expected Return (Discrete Dist.)
R = ( Ri )( Pi )
R is the expected return for the asset,
Ri is the return for the ith possibility,
Pi is the probability of that return occurring,
n is the total number of possibilities.
R = ( Ri )( Pi )
R is the expected return for the asset,
Ri is the return for the ith possibility,
Pi is the probability of that return occurring,
n is the total number of possibilities.
n
i=1
Expected ReturnExpected Return
State of Probability Return
Economy (P) Comp. A Comp. B
Recession .20 4% -10%
Normal .50 10% 14%
Boom .30 14% 30%
For each firm, the expected return on the stock is just a weighted average:
Expected ReturnExpected Return
State of Probability Return
Economy (P) Comp. A Comp. B
Recession .20 4% -10%
Normal .50 10% 14%
Boom .30 14% 30%
For each firm, the expected return on the stock is just a weighted average:
R = P1*R1 + P2*R2 + ...+ Pn*Rn
Expected ReturnExpected Return
State of Probability Return
Economy (P) Comp. A Comp. B
Recession .20 4% -10%
Normal .50 10% 14%
Boom .30 14% 30%
R = P1*R1 + P2*R2 + ...+ Pn*Rn
RA = .2 (4%) + .5 (10%) + .3 (14%) = 10%
Expected ReturnExpected Return
State of Probability Return
Economy (P) Comp. A Comp. B
Recession .20 4% -10%
Normal .50 10% 14%
Boom .30 14% 30%
R = P1*R1 + P2*R2 + ...+ Pn*Rn
RB = .2 (-10%)+ .5 (14%) + .3 (30%) = 14%
Based only on your expected return
calculations, which stock would you
prefer?
RISK?RISK?
Have you considered
Defining RiskDefining Risk
What rate of return do you expect on your investment (savings) this year?
What rate will you actually earn?
Does it matter if it is a bank CD or a share of stock?
What rate of return do you expect on your investment (savings) this year?
What rate will you actually earn?
Does it matter if it is a bank CD or a share of stock?
The variability of returns from The variability of returns from those that are expected.those that are expected.
The variability of returns from The variability of returns from those that are expected.those that are expected.
Defining Risk• The possibility that an actual return
will differ from our expected return.
• Uncertainty in the distribution of possible outcomes.
What is Risk?What is Risk?• Uncertainty in the distribution of
possible outcomes.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
4 8 12
Company A
return
What is Risk?What is Risk?• Uncertainty in the distribution of
possible outcomes.
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Company B
return
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
4 8 12
Company A
return
What is risk?What is risk?
Risk is the uncertainty associated with the Risk is the uncertainty associated with the return on an investment.return on an investment.
Risk can impact all components of return Risk can impact all components of return through:through: Fluctuations in income returns;Fluctuations in income returns; Fluctuations in price changes of the Fluctuations in price changes of the
investment;investment; Fluctuations in reinvestment rates of return.Fluctuations in reinvestment rates of return.
6-46
• Financial Risk– Tied to debt financing
• Liquidity Risk– Marketability with-out
sale prices
• Exchange Rate Risk• Country Risk
– Political stability
Risk Sources
• Interest Rate Risk– Affects income return
• Market Risk– Overall market effects
• Inflation Risk– Purchasing power
variability
• Business Risk
6-47
Risk Types
• Two general types:– Systematic (general) risk
• Pervasive, affecting all securities, cannot be avoided
• Interest rate or market or inflation risks
– Nonsystematic (specific) risk• Unique characteristics specific to issuer
• Total Risk = General Risk + Specific Risk
How do we Measure Risk?How do we Measure Risk?
• To get a general idea of a stock’s price variability, we could look at the stock’s price range over the past year.
How do we Measure Risk?How do we Measure Risk?
• A more scientific approach is to examine the stock’s STANDARD DEVIATION of returns.
• Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of possible outcomes.
• The greater the standard deviation, the greater the uncertainty, and therefore , the greater the RISK.
Standard DeviationStandard Deviation
n
i=1
= (Ri - R)2 × Pi
Which stock would you prefer?
How would you decide?
Which stock would you prefer?
How would you decide?
Company
Company A B
Expected Return 10% 14%
Standard Deviation 3.46% 13.86%
Company
Company A B
Expected Return 10% 14%
Standard Deviation 3.46% 13.86%
SummarySummarySummarySummary
It depends on your tolerance for risk! It depends on your tolerance for risk!
It depends on your tolerance for risk! It depends on your tolerance for risk!
Remember there’s a tradeoff between risk and return.Remember there’s a tradeoff between risk and return.
Return
Risk
Determining Expected Return (Continuous Dist.)Determining Expected Return (Continuous Dist.)
R = ( Ri ) / ( n )
R is the expected return for the asset,
Ri is the return for the ith observation,
n is the total number of observations.
R = ( Ri ) / ( n )
R is the expected return for the asset,
Ri is the return for the ith observation,
n is the total number of observations.
n
i=1
Determining Standard Deviation (Risk Measure)Determining Standard Deviation (Risk Measure)
n
i=1 = ( Ri - R )2
( n )
Note, this is for a continuous distribution where the distribution is for a population. R represents
the population mean in this example.
= ( Ri - R )2
( n )
Note, this is for a continuous distribution where the distribution is for a population. R represents
the population mean in this example.
Coefficient of Variation
• The coefficient of variation is the ratio of the standard deviation divided by the return on the investment; it is a measure of risk per unit of return.
CV = /RA
• The higher the coefficient of variation, the riskier the investment.