R&M in a Model-based System Engineering...

MAIN PROGRAMThe 66th Annual Reliability & Maintainability Symposium

January 27-30, 2020 | Marriott Renaissance Palm Springs Hotel | Palm Springs, CA, USA

R&M in a Model-based System Engineering Environment

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R&M in a Model-based System Engineering Environment

Greetings! On behalf of the Management Committee of the 66th Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium it is indeed my honor and privilege to welcome you all to this prestigious International conference planned by eight professional societies with emphasis in reliability, availability, maintainability and safety. I would like to thank the organizers for giving me this opportunity to share with you my perspectives about this conference.

The location could not be better! With nine cities in one beautiful oasis, Greater Palm Springs is rich in visitor experiences, from outdoor adventure, shopping, and art to world-class events. Whether you spend a sun-soaked afternoon by the pool, play a round of golf, or soak in healing mineral water, this Southern California destination knows how to chill. Thanks to the abundance of sunny days and warm winter weather, Greater Palm Springs is a year-round playground for those who enjoy being active—and those who prefer to kick back. Please join us at the Renaissance Palm Springs Hotel!

Despite significant scientific advances in reliability engineering as well as new technologies over the last few decades, the knowledge gap still exists. Modern

engineering products, from individual components to large systems, must be designed and manufactured to be reliable in use. The manufacturing processes need to be performed correctly and with the minimum of variation. All these aspects impact the product’s life cycle cost. For a reliability program to be successful, it needs a way to provide both management and engineering with practical tools that are easily applied to the product development process. As better-informed shoppers, consumers can now determine their product needs at any place, anytime, and for the best price. The information age allows consumers to research an entire market efficiently and with little effort. Conventional shopping is now replaced with “smart” shopping. An important part of the consumer’s selection process is information regarding a product’s quality and reliability.

As a Reliability Engineer, I think the 2020 conference theme “R&M in a Model-based System Engineering Environment” will contribute towards addressing this knowledge-to-practice gap through providing a scientific exchange platform. A distinguished panel of international experts in Reliability Engineering will share their latest research and engineering practice perspectives during this conference, which I hope will be applicable in your professional practice. Sharing your own reliability engineering practice perspectives with regional/global experts will make this conference even more rich in its content, with a win-win situation for all.

Our Key-note speaker Mr. Daniel Moczydlower is Embraer’s Executive Vice President, Engineering and Technology. He brings a unique prospective to reliability applications in product and technology development. Daniel’s experience and in-depth knowledge will bring an insightful perspective to this year’s symposium theme.

Mr. Roger Hayes, who is the founder, President and CEO of Sierra Technical Services, Inc., is our Banquet Speaker. Sierra Technical Services, Inc., is currently designing and building a Low Observable (Stealthy) fighter-style unmanned aircraft for the US Department of Defense. He will talk about the challenges of developing, manufacturing, and Testing of advanced military aircraft for the last 40 years.

I am sure you will find both presentations valuable and I wish you an engaging and productive participation at RAMS® 2020!

Dr. Julio Pulido General Chair, RAMS® 2020 [email protected]

Dr. Julio PulidoGeneral Chair, RAMS® 2020

2020 GENERAL CHAIR’S MESSAGE

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RAMS® 2020 Hours of Operation

Registration: Smoketree F on Monday thru Wednesday Santa Rosa for Sunday Exhibits Hours of Operation:

Sunday, January 26, 2020 4:00pm - 7:00pm Monday, January 27, 2020 5:00pm - 7:00pmMonday, January 27, 2020 7:00am - 5:00pm Tuesday, January 28, 2020 9:00am - 5:00pmTuesday, January 28, 2020 7:00am - 5:00pm Wednesday, January 29, 2020 9:00am - 1:00pmWednesday, January 29, 2020 8:00am - 4:00pm

RAMS® Exhibition and Registration

Every exhibitor has been carefully selected with improved reliability, maintainability, quality and productivity in mind. All exhibits will be in Madera and the Ballroom Terrace. Coffee breaks will be held in the exhibit area. The Exhibition is a valuable component of the Symposium as it provides information on products and services which can help you do your job more efficiently. Even if you plan to attend every technical session, there will still be plenty of time to visit the exhibits between sessions and during lunch breaks.

ALD Ltd BQR Reliability Engineering, LtdCincinnati Sub-ZeroCollins Aerospace-A Division

of United TechnologiesDefense Systems Information Analysis

Center (DSIAC)DfR Software Company

DSI International, Inc.ESPEC North America, Inc.Fulton Findings, LLC HBM Prenscia, Inc. Isograph, Inc.Item Software USA PHM Technology (Diamond Sponsor)Polestar Technical Services, Inc.

PTCQuanterion Solutions, Inc.Reliability Engineering Academy GbRRelyence CorporationSAS Institute, Inc./JMP DivisionSystecon North AmericaUniversity of Maryland

Exhibitors List

Colloquium Session and iPad RaffleWe will again hold a Colloquium Session for papers that have been exclusively selected to be presented based on content and expected level of interaction with attendees and R&M experts. This session offers a more dynamic opportunity to interact with the author directly and is one of our most popular sessions. Lunch will be served. Three Apple iPad Air 2 (32 GB) will be raffled off. One raffle ticket may be obtained at the end of each of the Thursday sessions (maximum of two tickets). Attendees must be present at the Colloquium Session area to be eligible to win an iPad. Content of this session is fluid as the Program Committee is endeavoring to include as many papers as possible within the scheduled paper sessions. Real time updates to this session, as well as the entire program, will be available in the RAMS® App.

Job Posting BoardRAMS® is again sponsoring a job posting board for openings in the assurance disciplines. Any business interested in describing its employment opportunities to the world’s premier gathering of assurance professionals is encouraged to post directly on the bulletin boards, which will be available to all Symposium attendees. This is an extraordinary opportunity to get your employment message out as well as a unique resource for job seekers.

IEEE Continuing Education Units (CEUs) You can earn CEUs by attending our Tutorials and Workshops at no extra charge (0.1 CEU per hour). Simply use a CEU completion form included with your registration packet. Complete the form according to the instructions, and return it to the registration desk at the conclusion of the Symposium. Your CEU certificate will be e-mailed to you.

RAMS® Tutorial Certificate Program Formalize your educational experience with the two-level RAMS® Tutorial Certificate Program. The first level requires the completion of five core concept tutorials; the second level requires an additional 10 tutorials, taken across at least two symposia, based on your own profession needs and interests. Due to the timeliness of the material, the Certificate Program must be completed within four years of the first core tutorial. Upon completion of the program, you will receive a RAMS® certificate, a letter of completion, and a list of tutorials attended. You can enroll in the Certificate Program through the online registration system.

Spouses’ Hospitality ProgramMon. 01/27 Indian & Tahquitz Canyons www.tahquitzcanyon.com/canyon Cost: $12.50 Tue. 01/28 Palm Springs Air Museum palmspringsairmuseum.org Cost: $18.00 Wed. 01/29 Palm Springs Aerial Tramway pstramway.com Cost: $26.95

RAMS® will provide transportation to these activities. For more information, please contact Mohammad Hijawi via email at [email protected]

REGISTRATION & INFORMATIONat the RAMS® Registration Desk

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Time #A B C D E

DateMojave Learning Center Catalina Sierra Ventura Smoketree C

8:30 - 10:00 General Chair's Welcome & Keynote - Location: Oasis Hall 3A

Mon

day

Janu

ary

27

10:15 - 12:15 1 An Introduction to Probability Models in Reliability & Maintainability

An Introduction to Bayesian Methods for Reliability Data Analysis

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Applications

Accelerated Life Testing R&M Management

13:30 - 15:30 2Electronic Part Failure Analysis Tools and Techniques

Reliability Growth Analysis

R&M Applications in Space Systems

Risk Analysis and Management I

15:45 - 17:45 3 An Introduction to R&M Management

Introduction to Fractional Failure and its Application in Reliability

Future Directions in Model Based Engineering for Assurance

R&M Applications in Airborne Systems

Software Safety and Security

17:00-19:00 Exhibitor's Reception - Location: Pasadena

7:45 - 8:00 Chairman's Corner - Location – Pasadena

Tues

day

Janu

ary

28

8:00 - 10:00 4Introduction to Life Data Analysis

Machine Learning for Prognostics and Health Management of Components

Maintenance Models and Methodologies I

Physical Reliability Models

Design Optimization Using R&M Techniques

10:15 - 12:15 5Reliability and Availability Modeling in Practice

R&M Applications in Manufacturing

Prognostics and Health Management

Risk Analysis and Management II

13:30 - 15:30 6 Introduction to Fault Tree Analysis

Systems and Infrastructure Asset Management Modelling

Software Reliability in the 21st Century

Availability and Supportability

Software Reliability and Testing

15:45 - 17:45 7

Understanding and Applying the Fundamentals of FMEA

Introduction to Maintenance Models

Big Data and IoT Applications in R&M

Reliability Modeling I

System Optimization Using R&M Techniques

7:45 - 8:00 Chairman's Corner - Location – Pasadena

Wed

nesd

ay

Janu

ary

29

8:00 - 10:00 8

Use of Design of Experiments for Reliability Evaluation and Improvement

Risk Management Principles and Techniques

Failure Prevention Methods Life Data Analysis I

Maintenance Models and Methodologies II

10:15 - 12:15 Advisory Board Panel – Madera

13:30 - 15:30 9

Designing for Availability in Systems, and Systems of Systems

Practical Guide to Reliability Growth Analysis

Systems Approach to Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

Reliability Modeling II

Safety Critical Systems and Diagnostics

15:45 - 17:45 10 Pitfalls of Accelerated Testing

Fast Track Lifecycle using SafeScrum and The Agile Safety Case

DoD PanelDiscrete Event Modeling & Simulation

Model Based System Engineering for Reliability Analysis

18:30 - 21:30 General Reception & Banquet – California Grand Ballroom (Madera & Pasadena)

8:00 - 10:00 11Analysis of Large Repairable System Reliability Data Sets

Dynamic Reliability and Artificial Intelligence

Integrated Reliability Reliability Modeling III

Complex System and Health Care Reliability

Thur

sday

Ja

nuar

y 30

10:15 - 12:15 12

Comparing 3 Human Reliability Methodologies: A Hands-on Tutorial

Effective Design Verification Plan and Report for Reliability

Business Process and Economic Models Life Data Analysis II Autonomous

Systems and AI

12:15 - 14:15 Colloquium Session and iPad Drawing - Location: Ballroom Terrace

Legend Tutorial Panel Discussion Paper Session

RAMS® 2020 PROGRAM MATRIX

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DANIEL MOCZYDLOWERExecutive Vice President, Engineering & Technology.

Embraer

KEYNOTE SPEAKER

Daniel Moczydlower holds a Magna cum Laude degree in Chemical Engineering from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, and a Masters of Modeling, Simulation and Process Control from COPPE/UFRJ. He has been a member of the Consulting Board of PMI/Rio de Janeiro, since 2010 and serves as Chairman of the Consulting Board since 2016.

He began his career as a Process Engineer at Chemtech, where he successfully held various management positions until he became CEO in 2010. He worked with such clients as Petrobras and Vale in Brazil, and ExxonMobile in Asia and the Americas.

Daniel joined Embraer in 2013 as president and CEO of the new Embraer Systems Business Unit, with the mission of structuring the business in line with the diversification and growth strategy of Embraer. Daniel is also a Board Member at Atech - a 100% owned Embraer Company focused on the development and operation of mission critical Systems such as The Brazilian air traffic Management (ATM) system.

In 2017 Daniel was assigned as Vice president, Technology Development for the entire Embraer Group and also responsible for the management of Embraer's Engineering and technology Centers located in Melbourne (USA), Evora (Portugal), Belo Horizonte, Floroanopolis and the engineering teams of Embraer Equipment Division (EDE) and Embraer Advanced Seat Technologies (EAST).

In 2019 Daniel took over the position of Embraer's Executive Vice President, Engineering & Technology.

His keynote presentation title:

"Reliability in the sky: Embraer's 50 year journey"

will cover the implementation of R&M in a Model-based System Engineering Environment.

Daniel's current and past experience will bring a great viewpoint to this very real and relevant topic, the heart of this year's symposium theme: "R&M in a Model-based System Engineering Environment."

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ROGER HAYESPresident and CEO Sierra Technical Services, Inc.

BANQUET SPEAKER

Our story began in 2006 when husband and wife team, Roger & Debra Hayes, founded Sierra Technical Services, Inc. (STS) in Mojave, California

STS spent the “early” years providing Aerospace Engineering and 5 Axis CNC Composite Tooling design and manufacturing for local aerospace and automotive industry leaders.

As our relationships and capabilities expanded, STS strategically reached out to select engineers and technician’s renown in the industry for their subject matter expertise. Many of these engineers worked previously with Roger on prestigious programs.

Affectionately referred to as our “Grey Beards”, these SME’s individually possess thirty to fifty years of invaluable experience in the design, manufacturing and testing of prototype aircraft.

In December 2016, STS was awarded a prime contract to Build, Integrate, and Test the Fifth Generation Aerial Target (5GAT) air vehicle based on U.S. Government Design Data. Scheduled delivery of the 1st demonstrator aircraft is planned for May 2019

In March 2017, STS was awarded a contract to manufacture a composite replacement wing for the U.S. Navy BQM 74E Subscale Aerial Target based on U.S. Government Design Data with the end user being the Naval Air Weapons Center Weapons Division (NAWCWD) located at Point Magu , CA. Contract completion date December 2017.

His presentation will cover R&M applications in model based engineering in unmanned aircraft.

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Monday • January 27, 2020

■ General Chair’s Welcome and Keynote Oasis Hall 3AMonday, 8:30 AM – 10:10 AM

Keynote Speaker:DANIEL MOCZYDLOWER

Executive Vice President, Engineering & Technology

Embraer

"Reliability in the sky: Embraer's 50-year journey"

■ Session 01/02A (Core) An Introduction to Probability Models in Reliability and Maintainability Mojave Learning CenterMonday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM • 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Yisha Xiang Texas Tech University (United States)Rong Pan Arizona State University (United States)The purpose of this tutorial is to provide attendees with basic coverage of the traditional, fundamental probability models used to describe, improve, and optimize system reliability and maintainability.

■ Session 01B An Introduction to Bayesian Methods for Reliability Data Analysis CatalinaMonday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Zhaojun (Steven) Li Western New England University (United States)Jian Guo Lam Research Corporation (United States)This tutorial introduces the fundamentals of using Bayesian statistical methods for reliability data analysis through various case studies and examples.

■ Session 01C Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Applications SierraMonday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Elinaldo Araujo Embraco (Brazil)These papers provide a unique prospective in the application of failure modes and effects analysis.01C1 A Simple Tool for Reliable Government Problem Solving and Getting Legislation PassedAlec Feinberg DfRSoftware (United States)In this paper we provide a simple tool for government that can be used by any politician committee to do proper social economic problem solving to help ensure reliability in political decision making. We demonstrate on how the tool Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, a standard best practice tool used in industry, could be applied in government to help in getting legislation passed.01C2 An Approach to Curb Failures: Integration of DfR in Design of Space Transmitter Control CircuitKhilawan Choudhary MTRDC, DRDO (India)Monisha S, MTRDC; Neeraj Kumar; P SIDHARTHAN, MTRDC,DRDOThe paper presents the Design for Reliability (DfR) process to achieve the reliability goal, Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) for identification of critical components and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for identification of potential hazards and its influence on the system which assured the reliability & safety requirements are being met during the design phase of the system.01C3 A Novel Framework to Assist the Novice in Defining Failure Modes for

System-level Software FMEANaoko Okubo Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (Japan)Kohsuke Namihira, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency; Hiroki Umeda, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency; Yasushi Ueda, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency; Shuji Morisaki, Graduate School of Informatics, Nagoya University; Masafumi Katahira, Japan Aerospace Exploration AgencySystem-level FMEA that is highly focused on the software behavior (defined as SS-FMEA) is difficult to identify an effective failure mode which may lead to a serious accident due to the systemic nature of failures rather than random hardware failures. The study modeled insights derived from best practices on space system’s SS-FMEA and create a framework to assist the novice to identify the high impact failure mode.01C4 Chronology of Continuous Improvement of the World’s Best FMECA StandardTyrone Jackson CSULB (United States)Kristella Jackson, California State University, Long Beach; Tyrone Jackson, S-102 Mission Assurance Standards Working GroupThis paper will chronologically describe the great lengths the Army went to choose and help improve the ANSI/AIAA Standard S-102.2.4-2009.

TUTORIALS, SESSIONS, WORKSHOPS

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■ Session 01D Accelerated Life Testing VenturaMonday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Lori Bechtold Retired (United States)Moderator: Les Warrington Les Warrington Consulting (Canada)Accelerated Life Testing is a method of applying high levels of environmental stress to test a product and improve reliability. This session presents advanced methods and examples of accelerated life testing.01D1 Covariate Selection Considering Measurement Error with Application in Accelerated Life TestingSamira Karimi University of Arkansas (United States)Haitao Liao, University of Arkansas; Ed Pohl, University of ArkansasA new method for covariate selection considering measurement error in accelerated life testing is developed.01D2 Reliability Test Planning Considering Multiple Failure Mechanisms and System LevelsAlexander Grundler University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components (Germany)Martin Dazer, University of Stuttgart; Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components An approach of finding the optimal system test level, test type and configuration regarding individual constraints in cost and time.01D3 Model Based Approach to Effectively Test Random Vibration for ReliabilityNarasimman Sunderajan HCL Technologies Ltd (India)Effectively test Random vibration using Fatigue Damage Spectrum and Kurtosis, then build model to reliability.01D4 Optimizing the Efficiency of Accelerated Reliability Testing for the Internet Router MotherboardYan-Fu Li Tsinghua University (China)Han-Xiao Zhang, Shouzhou Liu, Tsinghua UniversityA novel optimization method for thermal and pressure cycle testing, applied to the router motherboard production process.

■ Session 01E R&M Management Smoketree CMonday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Natesan Jambulingam

NASA (United States)

Moderator: Joel Nachlas Virginia Tech (United States)This session provides insights into and examples of best practices for Reliability & Maintainability Management.01E1 Reliability Confidence Indicator: A KPI for the Reliability Program PlanSorin Voiculescu Concordia University (Canada)Ilie CacipuThe RCI KPI reflects the status of reliability compliance and issue/risk mitigation during phases of development, considering a wide variety of activities and investment efforts the program level.01E2 MTBFs and PDFs: How To (not) Manage for ReliabilityChristopher Jackson Acuitas Reliability (Canada)The MTBF is perhaps the most used and most over used reliability related metric. Using it without understanding it usually means you have not understood what reliability means for your process or product.01E3 An Approach to Low Cost Reliability DemonstrationPaul Franklin Genpact (United States)How to use reliability demonstration testing as one means to provide reliability assurance for commercial equipment.01E4 The New NASA Approach to Reliability and MaintainabilityHarry Jones NASA (Country)NASA issued a major revision of its R&M policy using an innovative and effective top-down system design approach intended to effectively implement R&M.

■ Session 02B Electronic Part Failure Analysis Tools and Techniques CatalinaMonday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Jonathan Fleisher Northrop Grumman Corp (United States)This tutorial provides an introduction to electronic components failure analysis aimed at getting to the root cause of reliability problems.

TUTORIALS, SESSIONS, WORKSHOPS (cont.)

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■ Session 02C Reliability Growth Analysis SierraMonday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Roger Abbotti Raytheon Missile Systems (United States)These papers provide the linkage of reliability growth within systems engineering with examples and process methodology.02C1 A Bayesian Approach for Modeling Reliability GrowthZhaojun (Steven) Li Western New England University (United States)Jonathan Blood, USCCDC DAC; Paul Ellner, AMSAAPropose to model reliability growth planning under a Bayesian framework to incorporate uncertainties in both initial failure intensity and growth rate estimations.02C2 A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Reliability Growth ProjectionMartin Wayne USCCDC DAC (United States)Dong Xu, University of Electronic Science and Technology of ChinaThis paper presents a new method for projecting the reliability growth of a complex continuously operating system using a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The model provides a complete inference framework for the system failure intensity, which can help reliability program managers to better understand and manage their developmental reliability growth programs.02C3 Impact of Model-based Systems Engineering on Reliability GrowthBill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)It is estimated that for many Aerospace organizations today the cost of poor quality is 20 – 25% of sales. This includes not only the cost of scrap, rework and concessions but also those of missed delivery penalties, consequential losses due to product reliability, etc.02C4 Reliability Growth Model for Repairable SystemsBrian Kozumplik Nexteer Automotive (United States)Reliability growth is essentially the improvement in the reliability of a product based on changes in the product’s design. Product and process changes are the result of taking an action to resolve issues identified in the product development process.

■ Session 02D R&M Applications in Space Systems VenturaMonday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Jess Leszczynski Sierra Nevada Corporation (United States)Moderator: Marisa Martinez Sierra Nevada Corporation (United States)This session showcases the latest Reliability and Maintainability developments, with emphasis placed on MBSE, in the Space Systems industry.02D1 Reliability Modelling Using Pseudo-Lifetimes Degradation Data for Space ApplicationsAntonio Harrison Sanchez European Space Agency (Netherlands)Lorenzo Bitetti, Thales Alenia SpaceIn this paper, we investigate the application of the pseudo-lifetimes degradation data method to the reliability modeling of solar array generators in Geo-Stationary satellites. We compare results with traditional reliability prediction approaches and explore some of its benefits, limitations, and potential dangers.02D2 Enabling Assurance in the MBSE EnvironmentJohn Evans NASA HQ (United States)Steven Cornford, NASA/JPL/Caltech; Martin Feather, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; David Kotsifakis, NASAThis paper discusses the applications of MBSE to assurance disciplines.02D3 NASA Quality Assurance in an MBSE WorldSteven Cornford NASA/JPL/Caltech (United States)Sean Beckman, NASA Glenn Research CenterThis paper provides insight into how the MBSE modeling tools can be used to define SMA processes, produce SMA products, and represent SMA disciplines.02D4 Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems using Model Based EngineeringNancy Lindsey NASA-GSFC (United States)Mahdi Alimardani, Luis Gallo, NASA-GSFCA study of modeling practices to develop strategies for integrating Reliability Engineers into the NASA's Model Based Engineering process to ensure that risk assessments generated from reliability artifacts are more accurate and consistent and remain relevant and value-needed to design, development, and operational processes.


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■ Session 02E Risk Analysis and Management I Smoketree CMonday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Paul Franklin Genpact (United States)Moderator: Jian Guo Lam Research Corporation (United States)Papers in this session discuss data driven approaches to risk management and mitigation in complex systems.

02E1 Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies of Active Lower Limb ExoskeletonsJohannes Schick Aalen University, Institute for High Integrity Mechatronic Systems (Germany)Markus Glaser, Aalen University, Institute for High Integrity Mechatronic Systems; Ralph Kennel, Technical University of Munich, Institute for Electrical Drive Systems and Power ElectronicsWe conduct a risk assessment for active lower limb exoskeletons, providing risk mitigating strategies for use with future active exoskeleton devices.02E2 Forecast Accuracy in Weibull Analysis Based on Now Risk Trevor Craney Collins Aerospace (United States)Assessing risk accuracy in Weibull forecasting models by comparing the number of failures that have occurred to date to the model's prediction.02E3 How Do Systems Fail? Bryan O'Halloran Naval Postgraduate School (United States)Bryan O'Halloran, Naval Postgraduate School (United States); Douglas Van Bossuyt, Naval Postgraduate SchoolThis paper advocates that practitioners conduct an analysis before beginning failure and risk analysis to determine what failure classifications may be present in their systems by looking across industries and product categories.02E4 Failure Time Analysis Applied to Boeing 737 MAXJan Smith Zachry Industrial, Inc. (United States)Failure time analysis using the Poisson distribution is explained and demonstrated, with Boeing 737 MAX providing an example of how its use assuredly would have changed Boeing and the FAA decisions. This method is very sensitive to sudden change in failure rate and the analysis methodology, including confidence intervals, is presented.

■ Session 03A ■ Introduction to R&M Management Mojave Learning CenterMonday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Christopher Jackson Acuitas Reliability (United States)Carl Carlson Carlson Reliability Consulting (United States)The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce an outline to guide the management of an effective reliability or maintainability program. Attendees to this tutorial will learn important R&M management principles, including the primary steps to achieving high reliability, real life case studies, common pitfalls, and lessons learned.

■ Session 03B Introduction to Fractional Failure and Its Application in Reliability CatalinaMonday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Feng-Bin Sun Tesla Inc. (United States)Mingxiao Jiang Medtronic PLC (United States)This tutorial provides a systematic and comprehensive introduction to the concept of fractional failure, including the actual scenarios when fractional failures are present in Reliability Engineering, mathematical modeling, and data analysis.

■ Session 03C Future Directions in Model Based Engineering for Assurance Sierra

Monday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PMSession Chair: John W Evans NASA HQ (United States) Moderator: Tony DiVenti NASA HQ (United States) Panelists:Frank Groen NASA HQ (United States) Advancing Model Based Engineering at NASA

Andy Monje Office of the Under Secretary of Defense Research and Engineering (United States)Future Direction of Model Based Engineering Across the Department of DefenseAli Mosleh UCLA (United States)Perspective on Methodological Advancements Needed for Integrated MBSE-RAMS® CapabilityDr. Haifeng Zhu United Technologies Research Center (United States)Adaptability Metric Analysis for Multi-Mission Design of Manufactured Products and Systems


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■ Session 03D R&M Applications in Airborne Systems VenturaMonday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Session Chair: Lori Bechtold Retired (United States)Moderator: Bruce Douty L3Harris (United States)Airborne systems present unique reliability challenges, both in the high reliability required to assure flight safety and a more challenging operating environment than ground systems. This session showcases the diverse and unique challenges to assure R&M of airborne systems.

03D1 Bayesian Reliability Analysis with Slice Sampling in Launch Vehicle ApplicationsMarie Ireland United Launch Alliance (United States)Jeff Gonzales, United Launch Alliance (ULA)Slice sampling and its integration into one MATLAB application can improve Bayesian inference updates for launch vehicle reliability.03D2 Automatic Fault Tree Generation from Radiation-Induced Fault ModelsArthur Witulski Vanderbilt University (United States)Rebekah Austin, Vanderbilt University; Nagabhushan Mahadevan, Vanderbilt University; Gabor Karsai, Vanderbilt University; Brian Sierawski, Vanderbilt University; Ronald D., Vanderbilt University; Robert Reed, Vanderbilt UniversityA general method of automatic fault tree generation using an exemplar CubeSat board for radiation-induced faults in the components.03D3 Text Mining-based Research on Aircraft Faults Classification and Retrieval ModelXingxing Xu School of Reliability and Systems Engineering (China)Shenghan Zhou, YiYong Xiao, Wenbing Chang, School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University;Fajie Wei, Ming Yang, School of Economics and Management, Beihang UniversityBased on the mining data of faults maintenance, this paper has proposed a faults classification and retrieval model to achieve effective use of unstructured data.03D4 Applying Model Based Safety Assessment for Aircraft Landing Gear System CertificationSyed Haider United Technologies Corporation (Canada)Using a MBE approach flight control system degradation due to multiple factors can be studied and design modifications introduced.

■ Session 03E System Security and Safety Smoketree CMonday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Session Chair: Ying Shi ASQ (United States)Moderator: Ken Costello NASA (United States)Without reliability, security and safety cannot be achieved. This session explores the reliability of security controls, behavior modeling of cyber security as well as new methods and applications of system safety analysis.

03E1 Towards the Intelligent Application of Security ControlsGeorge Yee Aptusinnova Inc. and Carleton University (Canada)Model of the impact of the reliability of security controls to overall security; how to use this model together with the priority of vulnerabilities to apply the security controls intelligently, keeping within the financial budget.03E2 Behavior Modeling for Cyber SecurityLeila Meshkat Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)This paper develops a probabilistic modeling method to represent and analyze the effect of various factors on the human behaviors that lead to cyber security incidents.03E3 Coupling Multi-factor Hazard Analysis Based on Extended HAZOP and DEMATELMengWei Wei Beihang University (China)Jian Jiao, Ting-di Zhao, Beihang UniversityBased on the extension of the HAZOP method, this paper evaluates the impact of coupling multi-factor on the safety of system from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives with the combination of the DEMATEL technique.03E4 Analysis of an All-electric Safety Subsea Actuation System ArchitectureTobias Winter Aalen University (Germany)Markus Glaser, Aalen University, Institute for High Integrity Mechatronic Systems; Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components; Sebastian Imle, Stuttgart University, Institute of Machine Components; Julian Popp, Aalen UniversityThe paper discusses the method and the results of the safety analysis of an all-electric safety system for subsea x-mas trees.

■ Exhibitors Reception PasadenaMonday, 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM


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Tuesday • January 28, 2020

■ Session 04A/05A Introduction to Life Data Analysis Mojave Learning CenterTuesday, 8:00 AM – 12:15 PM

Larry Leemis The College of William & Mary (United States)This tutorial presents the probability models and associated statistical methods that are required to quantify the probability distribution of the lifetime of an item.

■ Session 04B Machine Learning for Prognostics and Health Management of Components

Catalina

Tuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AMEnrico Zio Mines Paris Tech (France)The future is now; machine learning is no sci-fi! Come to this tutorial to see the development of models, methods and algorithms of data analytics for detecting and diagnosing anomalous conditions and faults, and for predicting failures in industrial components and systems. It’s time for condition-based and predictive maintenance!

■ Session 04C Maintenance Models and Methodologies I SierraTuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Session Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum (United States)Moderator: Tongdan Jin Texas State University (United States)Reliability investment and risk-based maintenance in design, operation and support of complex systems in energy generation, gas delivery and automobile transportation.04C1 Automatic Generation of Analyses from Model-Based Functional Descriptions

Using UML State MachineMarc Zeller Siemens AG (Germany)Christof Kaukewitsch, Siemens AG; Henrik Papist, Martin Rothfelder, Siemens AGAutomated generation of analyses based on functional system descriptions of component-based systems using UML state-machines.04C2 Risk-based Maintenance Strategies for Offshore Wind Energy AssetsAthanasios Kolios University of Strathclyde (United Kingdom)This paper documents the development and application of a risk-based framework for the selection of optimum maintenance strategies for offshore wind energy assets.04C3 Incorporating Reliability Improvement and Fleet Maintenance into Rotorcraft Tradespace ToolsSaikath Bhattacharya University of Massachusetts (United States)Vidhyashree Nagaraju, University of Massachusetts; Eric Spero, Anindya Ghoshal, Lance Fiondella, University of Massachusetts/ US Army Research LaboratoryThis paper describes our recent study to incorporate a model that quantifies the impact of reliability improvement on mean time between failure and the corresponding economic impact into a rotorcraft tradespace tool. The paper describes how the combination of the model and tool can explicitly quantify the impact of reliability improvement on fleet and unit maintenance costs.04C4 Economic Model in Support of Reliability Centered Maintenance ResultsRod Benson Acquisition Logistics Engineering (United States)Darryl Kellner, Acquisition Logistics Engineering; Steve Rogers, Acquisition Logistics EngineeringThis paper presents a novel approach to evaluating non-critical preventative maintenance tasks based on the economic comparison between performing the task or allowing a failure to occur and performing corrective maintenance.

■ Session 04D Physical Reliability Models VenturaTuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Session Chair: Lori Bechtold Retired (United States)Moderator: Ed Dodd Ansys (United States)Physical Reliability modeling methods consider the physical stresses on materials and structures to provide an understanding of the mechanisms of failure. This session provides advances in physical reliability modeling.

04D1 1/f Phase Noise in Oscillators Modeled with Q and Its Entropy OriginAlec Feinberg DfRSoftware (United States)Phase noise in operating systems, strongly linked to degradation, is described with its origin and fundamental significance in thermodynamic degradation science.04D2 Accurate Reliability Prediction based on Risk Informed Decision MakingDongmei Chen Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA) (China)Qunyong Wang, Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA); Hua Bai, Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA); Fajian Shi, Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy Co. Ltd. (STEA)RIDM (Risk Informed Decision Making) 5 principles may provide a close loop thinking for accurate reliability prediction.


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04D3 Origin of 1/f Noise - Active Degradation Generating Entropy Alec Feinberg DfRSoftware (United States)1/f noise is a sensitive measure of degradation and a material’s stability at the microscopic level, and this measurement method can be used for prognostics.04D4 A Life Test Method for Rapidly Obtaining the Degradation Trend of Sensitive ParametersHua Bai Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA) (China)Qunyong Wang, Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA); Ongmei Chen, Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy Co. Ltd. (STEA); Xupeng Sun, Upeng Sun, Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy Co. Ltd.This paper introduces an innovative theory and method for rapidly obtaining the degradation trend of sensitive parameters

■ Session 04E Design Optimization Using R&M Techniques Smoketree CTuesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM



Moderator: Thomas Elwell Ford Motor Co. (United States)This session provides insights on and examples of how to optimize designs using classic and advanced R&M techniques.

04E1 Fast Iterative Design Optimization for Reliability Vibration tests in AutomotiveMarco Bonato VALEO (France)This paper presents a new innovative and cost effective approach for the design optimization of a car engine-cooling module to assure that the new design is compliant with acoustic and reliability requirements.04E2 Strategic Use of Different Shapes and Shifts in Weibull PlotsSarath Jayatilleka DaikinApplied Americas (United States)This paper addresses how to perform data analysis with Weibull model in order to strategically enhance the further use of plots, shapes and pattern recognition for speedier product development and customer satisfaction.04E3 Overview of the New SAE J3168 Standard on Reliability Physics Analysis of EEE Equipment

and ModulesJames McLeish ANSYS - DfR Solutions Group (United States)Keith Hodgson, Ford Motor Engineering; David Locker, US Army AMRDEC; lloyd Condra, Boeing RetiredThis paper discusses the new and joint SAE Aerospace and Automotive Standard SAE J3168 which defines Reliability Physics Analysis Process (RPA) for EEE equipment, modules and components of automotive, aerospace, and defense applications.04E4 Challenge and Response for Corner Case Robustness ImprovementJoseph Schwendler Hypertherm Inc (United States)Chris Kang, Hypertherm Inc; Dan Worts, Hypertherm IncThis paper suggests test method and experimental infrastructure to achieve robustness improvement considering that a complex industrial metal cutting system can be exposed to challenging test case inputs while closely monitoring system outputs, enabling reduction of system soft faults with respect to various use cases.

■ Session 05B Reliability and Availability Modeling in Practice CatalinaTuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Kishor Trivedi Duke University (United States)Andrea Bobbio Università del Piemonte Orientale (Italy)This tutorial discusses state of the art methods of carrying out reliability and availability analysis of complex systems. The methods are exposed via a number of real-life case studies that the instructor himself has worked on. The tutorial summarizes a 2017 Cambridge University Press book by Trivedi and Bobbio on the subject.

■ Session 05C R&M Applications in Manufacturing SierraTuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Brian Kozumplik Nexteer Automotive (United States)These papers provide specific examples of using manufacturing data to optimize processing accuracy and improve product reliability and maintainability.

05C1 Degradation Analysis of Machine Processing Accuracy in Manufacturing System with Effect of Unqualified Product

Zhenggeng Ye Northwestern Polytechnical University (China)Zhiqiang Cai, Northwestern Polytechnical University; Fuli Zhou, Zhengzhou University of Light Industry; Pan Zhang, Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityThis paper investigates the dynamic interactive behaviors between machines in manufacturing systems with delayed propagation of unqualified products, and constructs the dynamic degradation evaluation models based on stochastic differential equations to estimate the machine processing accuracy.


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05C2 Joint Optimization of Jobs Sequence and Inspection Policy for a Single Machine with Delayed Failure

Sharareh Taghipour Ryerson University (Canada)Samareh Azimpoor, Ryerson UniversityWe consider a single machine, which must process a number of jobs in a sequence. The machine’s failure process follows the two-stage Delay Time Model. The system can be inspected before starting a job to detect a possible defect. We consider the possibility of performing minimal repair or replacement at inspection with regard to the age of the machine. The objective is to jointly find the optimal job sequence and inspection policy which results in the minimum total expected makespan.05C3 Joint Optimizing the Production Sequence and Maintenance Planning for a Single-Machine

Multi-Failure SystemMani Sharifi (Canada)Sharareh Taghipour, Ryerson UniversityWe propose a single-machine multi-failure joint Production Sequence and Maintenance Planning optimization problem. The objective is to minimize the total system cost incorporates production, inspection and repair and uncrossed jobs penalty. We used two meta-heuristics to solve the model.05C4 When Life Is Too Long To Test: Combining Multiple Methods To Minimize RiskRussell Watts Thermo Fisher Scientific (United States)This paper discusses a blend of concepts from DFMEA, Zero Failure Testing, and DRBTR to establish test and results analysis methodologies that lower the risks to acceptable levels when full reliability modeling isn't practical.

■ Session 05D Prognostics and Health Management VenturaTuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum (United States)Moderator: Noah Lassar Waymo (United States)In this Prognostics and Health Management session, our presenters will discuss novel modeling approaches, including Neural Networks and Soft Sensors, to better understand and predict the remaining useful life of engines.

05D1 Soft Sensor Application to Predict Remaining Useful Life of Components of the Exhaust System of Diesel Engines

Martin Diesch Institut für Maschinenelemente (IMA) der Universität Stuttgart (Germany)Martin Dazer, University of Stuttgart; Kevin Lucan, University of Stuttgart; Thomas Bubolz, Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine ComponentsIn this project a method is proposed, which aims to identify relevant failure mechanisms and determines the state variables which induce the failure. In the second part the determination of the remaining useful life of a component like the turbine housing during operation using the state variables is discussed.05D2 Neural Networks Based Feature Selection Approaches for Prognostics of Aircraft EnginesPhattara Khumprom North Dakota State University (United States)Nita Yodo, North Dakota State University; David Grewell, North Dakota State UniversityMultiple feature selection methods were employed to identify the relevance of features for neural network remaining useful life prediction model of the aircraft engine data set.05D3 An Entropy-based Approach for Modeling Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity FadeZhaojun Steven Li Western New England University (United States)Alireza Namdari, Western New England UniversityThis paper studies the battery capacity fade modeling using various entropy measures and compares the effectiveness and differences of competitive entropy measures as predictors in battery capacity prognostics.05D4 Visualizing a Compass to ExcellenceNikolaos Salmatanis Chevron Energy Technology Company (United States)Larry Bowden, Chevron Emerging TechnologiesIn the field of reliability engineering, the energy industry is challenged with analyzing localized and distributed assets associated with pipelines and distribution systems. To advance reliability engineering capabilities within Chevron, Chevron has evaluated and implemented technology for our assets called predictive analytical reliability tool-sets (PARTs).

■ Session 05E Risk Analysis and Management II Smoketree CTuesday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Paul Franklin Genpact (United States)Moderator: Yisha Xiang Texas Tech University (United States)Papers in this session discuss data driven approaches to risk management in physical systems, including hardware and software.


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05E1 Risk Considerations for Autonomy SoftwareLeila Meshkat Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)This paper summarizes key findings related to methods for the risk considerations of autonomy software. An overview of the types of spacecraft autonomy and their associated reliability challenges is presented and key insights for managing uncertainty are provided along with a suggested architecture for the systematic consideration of risk within the context of a given autonomous planner.05E2 Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Acceptance TestingKevin Singer US Army, ARDEC (United States)Manoj Menon, Combat Capabilities Development Command - Armaments CenterModelling based on prior physical test data as well as probabilistic simulation are utilized to statistically determine future risk.05E3 Reliability Analysis of Crude Unit’s Atmospheric Tower Overhead Piping Based on Wall Thickness

Degradation ProEric Bediak Texas Tech University (United States)Ying Liao, Texas Tech University; Yisha Xiang, Texas Tech University; Suzan Alaswad, Zayed University, United Arab Emirates; Liudong Xing, University of Massachusetts DartmouthWe use the non-stationary Gamma process with random effects to model a real time wall thickness data on Crude unit’s Atmospheric tower overhead pipe collected over 3 to 4 years. We use the Expectation-Maximization (EM) Algorithm for the parameter estimation as it is a natural choice for missing data problems.05E4 Reliability Inference for Failure Mode of Sequential Hard and Soft Failure with

Application on Crack DataZan Li Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China)Wang Chengjie, Academy of Mathematics and System of Science Academy of China Science; Qingpei Hu, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Yu Dan, Academy of Mathematics and System of Science, Chinese Academy of SciencesWe introduce an initial random effect to the traditional stochastic process models, which presumes that the product randomly degenerate from the start and develop the corresponding parameter estimate procedures.

■ Session 06A Introduction to Fault Tree Analysis Mojave Learning CenterTuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

David Nelson Andromeda Systems Incorporated (United States)This core tutorial provides attendees with an introduction to Fault Tree Analysis (FTA).This tutorial focuses on the basic logic and mathematics associated with fault trees and includes several illustrative examples.

■ Session 06B Systems and Infrastructure Asset Management Modelling CatalinaTuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

John Andrews University Of Nottingham (United Kingdom)This tutorial discusses methods that predict the effects that a specified maintenance strategy will have on the performance of assets. Techniques to predict degradation and how this is integrated with the maintenance actions to predict the future state of the asset are discussed. Petri net methods are utilized and demonstrated with case studies.

■ Session 06C Software Reliability and Fault Tolerance in the 21st Century SierraTuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Suprasad Amari BAE Systems (United States)Moderator: Prof. Kishor Trivedi Duke University (United States)Discusses the current trends and latest developments in the field of software reliability. The topics include environmental diversity-based software fault-tolerance, software testing in defense and aerospace applications, software ageing phenomena and associated defensive strategies including software rejuvenation, data-driven reliability assurance for softwarized networks, and the need for models and metrics to complement continuous integration in software development. Panelists:Kishor Trivedi Duke University (United States)Environmental Diversity-based Software Fault ToleranceMadhav S. Phadke Phadke Associates, Inc. (United States)Software Testing in DoD ProgramsYing Shi NASA (United States)Software Reliability in Space ApplicationsKalyan Vaidyanathan BAE Systems (United States)Software Aging and RejuvenationPetra Vizaretta Technical University of Munich (Germany)Data-Driven Reliability Assurance for Softwarized NetworksLance Fiondella UMass and Army Research Laboratory (United States)Models and metrics to complement Continuous Integration in Software Development


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■ Session 06D Availability and Supportability VenturaTuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Jess Leszczynski Sierra Nevada Corporation (United States)Moderator: Zhaojun (Steven) Li Western New England University (United States)This session highlights how availability and supportability analysis can be used to help influence design decisions as well as aid in the decision making process.

06D1 Using System Availability Monitoring to Drive System Logistics DecisionsAlastair Moubray Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems (United States)Thaddeus Mateja, Raytheon Company - Integrated Defense Systems; Michael Flanagan, Raytheon; Jorge Hiraldo, Raytheon IDSThe development and deployment of an automated reliability-data collection method for a large system, and the subsequent challenges in generalizing this method to mobile and unmanned systems.06D2 Operational and Maintenance Tasks Influence on Equipment Availability

Through Petri Net Modeling Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza

Fundação de Apoio a Universidade de São Paulo CNPJ 68.314.830/0001-27 (Brazil)

Carlos Alberto Murad, Polytechnic School - University of São Paulo; Arthur Henrique Melani, Polytechnic School - University of São Paulo; Miguel Michalski, Polytechnic School - University of São Paulo; Adherbal Caminada Netto, Polytechnic School - University of São PauloThe Petri Net model is used to model system reliability and availability analysis considering operators and maintainers errors.06D3 Reliability: Enablers for Sustainment Through Supportability Focused Design InfluenceKenney Crooks Northrop Grumman Corp (United States)Mark Nanney, Northrop GrummanAs program acquisition schedules become more aggressive, new technologies and processes are required to maintain the ability to complete trade studies to ensure a producible and supportable design. This case study highlights the multi-disciplinary collaboration approach by NGC Reliability team to identify and correct challenging or erroneous designs decisions early in the process to reduce risk to sustainment that costs significantly later in program lifecycle.06D4 Reliability-Equivalent Field Reference Usage and Stress Level When Both are Random

for Weibullian ProductFeng-Bin Sun Tesla Inc. (United States)This paper derives, based on reliability equivalence principle, the analytic expression of the equivalent single-valued usage and stress level when the underlying life distribution is Weibull with a known shape parameter (slope). Numerical example is given to illustrate the advantage of the method for reliability life test design over the traditional practice, especially for high-reliability product.

■ Session 06E Software Reliability and Testing Smoketree CTuesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Ying Shi ASQ (United States)Moderator: Martin Feather Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)This session presents innovative models for software reliability measurements, release time optimization, requirements faults effect assessment and machine learning based discrepancy reports analysis.

06E1 Online Optimal Release Time for Non-homogeneous Poisson Process Software Reliability Growth Model

Vidhyashree Nagaraju University of Massachusetts (United States)Lance Fiondella, University of Massachusetts/US Army Research LaboratoryThis paper presents an online approach in which quantitative software release criteria are monitored throughout the testing process. The quality of decisions is measured by comparing the ratio of the cost achieved by a release decision and the unknown true optimum.06E2 An Empirical Study of Comparison of Code Metric Aggregation Methods and

Software Reliability EvaluationZekun Song School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University (China)Yichen Wang, Pengyang Zong, Science & Technology on Reliability & Environment Engineering Laboratory, Beihang UniversityLin Wang, Guiya Feng, Wenqian Kang, Precision Instrument and Opto-Electronics Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, ChinaWe conduct an empirical study on the application of software code metric aggregation methods based on actual projects.


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06E3 CLAIM: An Enhanced Machine Learning Technique for Discrepancy Report AnalysisMyron Hecht Aerospace Corporation (United States)Jaron Chen, Aerospace Corporation; Phanitta Chomsinsap, Aerospace Corporation; Ross Raymond, Aerospace CorporationUsing machine learning (ML) techniques for text data processing in combination with an additional preprocessing stage enables analysis of failure modes and causes in free text fields of software discrepancy reports with higher accuracy, sensitivity, and selectivity than conventional machine learning techniques.06E4 Effects Assessment for Requirements Faults of Safety Critical Software in Nuclear IndustryBoyuan Li The Ohio State University (United States)Carol Smidts, The Ohio State UniversityThis paper introduces the an method to assess effects for requirements faults of safety critical software in nuclear industry

■ Session 07A Understanding and Applying the Fundamentals of FMEAs Mojave Learning CenterTuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Carl Carlson Carlson Reliability Consulting (United States)Failure Mode and Effects Analysis has the potential to be a powerful reliability tool to reduce product design and manufacturing risk in a cost effective manner. Yet in practice, FMEA does not always live up to its potential. Achieving consistently excellent results from FMEA requires a rock-solid understanding and application of the fundamentals of FMEA. Students who attend this tutorial will learn an overview of the fundamental concepts and procedure for effective FMEAs and the FMEA success factors.

■ Session 07B Introduction to Maintenance Models CatalinaTuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Bentolhoda Jafary University of Massachusetts (United States)Maskura Nafreen University of Massachusetts (United States)Lance Fiondella University of Massachusetts/US Army Research Laboratory (United States)This tutorial provides an introduction to maintenance modeling with an emphasis on preventive maintenance models. Numerical examples are used to illustrate how key model parameters influence optimal maintenance intervals.

■ Session 07C Big Data and IoT Applications in R&M SierraTuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Session Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Roger Abbott Raytheon Missile Systems (United States)These papers focus on methods of using predictive analytics to make real-time management decisions to improve product reliability.

07C1 Real-time Management of RAM Data Using OT and IT infrastructure in Oil & Gas OperationsTian Shyong Tan PETRONAS (Malaysia)M Rashdan B Mahmood, PETRONASManaging safety-critical systems in real-time, across geographically diverse multiple oil & gas installations, both offshore and onshore, is in itself a huge challenge for any corporation. PETRONAS, has successfully deployed a digital solution to remotely manage multiple safety-critical systems under different operational technology (OT) sites from a centralised location in real-time over its existing corporate information technology (IT) infrastructure.07C2 Manufacturing Process Control and In-field Reliability

Case Study of Automotive Heat ExchangersAlex Romriell Northrop Grumman (United States)Stefan Niculescu, PTCThis paper proposes a new methodology, based on life data analysis of destructive bench tests, to relate the in-service reliability of automotive components, to the variability originated from manufacturing process.07C3 Lessons from Deploying Predictive Analytics on Manufacturing Shop FloorMarco Bonato VALEO (France)1) Connecting to secure automation equipment is possible, though difficult2) Manufacturing operations are motivated to act with data showing their real-time performance.3) Predictive models are only effective when they provide methods for improving performance."07C4 Real-time Optimization of Maintenance and Production Scheduling for an

Industry 4.0-based Manufacturing SystemSharareh Taghipour Ryerson University (Canada)Mageed Ghaleb, Ryerson University; Hossein Zolfagharinia, Ryerson UniversityWe propose a real-time optimization model for an Industry 4.0 manufacturing system that jointly optimizes maintenance and production schedules. The objective is to minimize a cost function that incorporates production, inspection and repair costs.


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■ Session 07D Reliability Modeling I VenturaTuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Session Chair: Dongmei Chen Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA) (China)Moderator: Ed Dodd Ansys (United States)These papers provide Reliability Modeling techniques, such as Mixd-Copula method, Dual-ring system reliability calculation, a fractal-cluster-based congestion analytical model, and simulation of anode corrosion.

07D1 A Multivariate Correlation Degradation Model for Reliability Analysis Based on Copula Wen Chen Beihang University (China)Guangyan Zhao, Beihang UniversityThis paper proposes a multivariate correlation degradation model based on Copula theory to evaluate the reliability of products or systems and verify the accuracy and feasible of the model.07D2 System Reliability Modelling Using Loop RedundancyLes Warrington Les Warrington Consulting (Canada)Daisy-chained loop redundancy can offer significant advantages over classical k-out-of-n approaches. This paper provides the method to calculate system reliability with daisy-chain loop redundancy.07D3 A Fractal-Cluster-Based Analytical Model for Spatial Pattern of CongestionXiangyu Zheng Beihang (China)Ning HuangThis paper presents an analytical model explaining the dominant mechanism governing the formation and evolution of the spatial pattern of congestion.07D4 Simulation of Anode Corrosion in the Electrowinning Process of Non-ferrous MetalsLes Warrington Les Warrington Consulting (Canada)Stefan Bracke, University of Wuppertal Chair of Safety Engineering and Risk ManagementThe corrosion of lead anodes, which are used in the electrowinning process of non-ferrous metals, is analyzed empirically. The goal is to develop a model to simulate the corrosion of the anodes in full-scale plants using CFD.

■ Session 07E System Optimization Using R&M Techniques Smoketree CTuesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM



Moderator: Thomas Elwel Ford Motor Company (United States)This session provides insights on and examples of how to optimize systems using classic and advanced R&M techniques.

07E1 Software Assurance of Autonomous Spacecraft ControlMartin Feather Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology (United States)Benjamin Smith, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Terrance Huntsberger, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; Robert Bocchino, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of TechnologyThis paper addresses the assurance of a software system being added to an in-orbit CubeSat to test autonomous control of that spacecraft.07E2 A Systems Approach to Rapid LogisticsDarryl Kellner Acquisition Logistics Engineering (United States)Steve Rogers, Acquisition Logistics Engineering; Rod Benson, Acquisition Logistics Engineering; Stephen Brunner, Acquisition Logistics EngineeringThis paper provides an overview of the Rapid Logistics process and explains why implementation of Rapid Logistics by today’s R&M engineers can benefit any Rapid Fielding Initiative (RFI) program.07E3 Optimized Derating to Support Reliable System Design Bryan Caldwell L3Harris Technologies (United States)Lori Bechtold, Retired; Bruce Douty, L3Harris; John Murray, HarrisA new ANSI standard is being developed using a system modeling approach to optimize derating of electronics to support reliable system design.07E4 Use Case 7, Identifying the Boundaries of Use and Environment in your Product Adam Bahret Apex Ridge Reliability (United States)This paper discusses a technique for improving the process of characterizing how products are used for the purpose of deriving use cases by characterizing use and environment which are critical to setting and satisfying reliability goals.


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Wednesday • January 29, 2020

■ Session 08A Use of Design of Experiments for Reliability Evaluation and Improvement

Mojave Learning Center

Wednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AMHaitao Liao University of Arkansas (United States)Huairui Guo FCA US LLC (United States)Design of Experiments (DOE) is one of the most useful statistical tools in product design and testing. This tutorial will focus on how to plan experiments effectively and how to analyze data correctly. Practical and correct methods for analyzing data from life testing will be provided.

■ Session 08B Risk Management Principles and Techniques CatalinaWednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Rick Jones Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection & Insurance Company (Unites States)This tutorial provides a foundation for scientists, engineers, and business executives to explicitly apply risk-based approaches to help solve problems in their disciplines. There are both subjective and quantitative examples illustrating risk management techniques that have been (and are being) applied to a wide range of engineering, financial, and management situations.

■ Session 08C Failure Prevention Methods SierraWednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM



Moderator: Joel Nachlas Virginia Tech (United States)This paper provides an efficient algorithm for computing the reliability of tree-structured system with k-out-of-n failure criteria.

08C1 Combining Hazards into a Single-Top Fault TreeJohn Weglian EPRI (United States)Jeff Riley, EPRI; Fernando Ferrante, Electric Power Research InstituteThis paper will examine the challenges associated with assessing risk to commercial nuclear power plants from multiple hazards.08C2 Agile FRACAS in Production ManufacturingJason Tanner Raytheon (United States)This paper provides a detailed and methodical approach towards the implementation of an agile Failure Reporting, Analysis and Corrective Action System (FRACAS) using the data-driven approach by collecting failure information and utilizing / allocating resources with maximum efficiency.08C3 Resilience in the Context of Nuclear Safety EngineeringSarah Dunnett Loughborough University (United Kingdom)Rundong Yan, Silvia Tolo, John Andrews, University Of Nottingham, Edoardo PatelliIn this work a detailed study of resilience within the context of the nuclear safety engineering is undertaken including definition and key performance metrics and their behavior during disruptive events.08C4 Reliability Analysis of Tree-Structured Systems Using Characteristic FunctionRui Sun University of Science and Technology of China (China)Weidong WANG, University of Science and Technology of China; Li CHEN, University of Science and Technology of China;Wenyi Zhang, University of Science and Technology of ChinaThis paper provides an efficient algorithm for computing the reliability of tree-structured system with k-out-of-n failure criteria.


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■ Session 08D Life Data Analysis I VenturaWednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Session Chair: Lori Bechtold Retired (United States)Moderator: Diganta Das University of Maryland (United States)Life data analysis considers the effects of accumulated stress on a product during its life, using advanced methods of testing, modeling and data analysis. Life data analysis provides valuable insight for warranties, maintenance planning and life cycle cost management.

08D1 Life Data Analysis Using a Joint Probability Density Function Umur Yenal HBM Prenscia (United States)David Jimenez, HBM PrenciaUsing the formulation of a joint density function with dependency between the variables, we are able to compute the metrics available in standard life data analysis.08D2 Thermal Fatigue in a Membrane Heat Exchanger with Environmental Degradation Julio Pulido ReliaRisk (United States)Life Data Analysis (LDA) and Simulation are used to improve the knowledge basis for selecting the right operational environment for life testing.08D3 Ring Laser Gyroscope Warm Standby Redundancy Subject to Wear-out Failure and

Time Varying Thermal StressesWei Huang Maxar Technologies, Space Infrastructure (United States)Roy Andrada, Dale BorjaThis paper presents a comprehensive analysis of a 2-for-1 ring laser gyroscopes warm standby redundant configuration.08D4 Modeling Safe Service Life of the US Army XM808 Shoulder-Fired Sub-Munition TrainerDouglas Ray US Army CCDC Armaments Center (United States)Joseph Grasso, US Army ARDECStatistical and reliability life data analysis techniques were integrated in service life predictions of the US Army’s XM808 Shoulder-Fired Sub-Munition Trainer system.

■ Session 08E Maintenance Models and Methodologies II Smoketree CWednesday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Session Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum (United States)Moderator: Feng-Bin Sun Tesla Inc. (United States)This session covers preventive and predictive maintenance strategies and modeling, including deterioration/degradation modeling, condition-based maintenance policies, and maintenance for multi-component systems with multiple failure modes.

08E1 Deterioration Modelling and Condition Based Maintenance PoliciesErcan Kablan ASELSAN (Turkey)Yasemin Serin, Middle East Technical UniversityThis paper will consist of an evaluation of the stochastic deterioration behavior of units or systems and developing maintenance control policies to optimize some long run objectives such as cost, first passage time to failure state, probability of being in down state...08E2 Selective Maintenance of Multi-Component Systems with Multiple Failure ModesCesar Ruiz Torres University of Arkansas (United States)Ed Pohl, University of Arkansas; Haitao Liao, University of ArkansasWe propose a novel selective maintenance optimization framework for optimizing the reliability of a system with multiple components subject to multiple failure modes, including soft failures and hard failures.08E3 Preventative and Predictive Maintenance ModelingNita Hivarekar John Deere (India)Vivek Kuppusamy, Priyanka Singh, John Deere; Swarup Kumar Jadav, John Deere; Chanchal Gupta, John DeereThis abstract talks about various methods of preventative and predictive maintenance models.08E4 An Advanced Sustainment Modeling Approach for Global Defense Data ArchitectureVaibhav Suthar Raytheon(United States)ASM provides the ability to streamline workflow and reduce potential for errors or inconsistencies in a sustainment data pool.


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■ Session 09A Designing for Availability in Systems, and Systems of Systems Mojave Learning CenterWednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Pierre Dersin ALSTOM Digital Mobility (France)René Valenzuela Prosegur (Spain)The goal of this tutorial is to describe methods for modeling and achieving system operational availability cost-effectively by acting at the design level and at the maintenance policy and logistics level. Extension of those methods to systems of systems is also discussed.

■ Session 09B Practical Guide to Reliability Growth Analysis CatalinaWednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Dmitry Tananko GDLS (United States)In this tutorial, the author presents the modern approach to planning and tracking of the Reliability Growth for a Developmental Program. The author reviews different historical models established for Reliability Growth over the last few decades starting with the Duane Model and discusses the Extended Crow-AMSAA and PM2 models.

■ Session 09C Systems Approach to Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) SierraWednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Bill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)Moderator: Michael Taylor TechnipFMC (United States)These papers provide a systems engineering approach to Failure Modes and Effects Analysis.

09C1 Performing Detailed Interface FMECAs in a Large Aerospace SystemReinaldo Perez Reinaldo Perez (United States)Large system level IF FMECA can be performed effectively with the use of processes that can be integrated.09C2 Systems Engineering Modelling Diagrams as Prerequisites to Failure Mode and Effect AnalysisSarath Jayatilleka DaikinApplied Americas (United States)Model Based Systems Engineering provides useful SysML Diagrams as Prerequisites to Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Boundary and Parameter Diagrams are the popular diagrams. There are other SysML diagrams useful but not popular as the first two. At least another 5 types are discussed to popularize herein.09C3 When and How to Implement DFMEA within a Model-Based System Engineering EnvironmentBill Haughey ReliaTrain (United States)The challenge is to go faster and to reduce the traditional approach to failure risk analysis (DFMEA). The thinking might include: If the programs didn't meet reliability targets using the traditional methods of risk analysis and reliability growth why not launch programs based on computer analysis only.09C4 Automated Generation of FMEAs Using SysML for Reliability, Safety, and Cyber SecurityMyron Hecht Aerospace Corporation (United States)Aaron Chuidian, Aerospace Corporation; Taiki Tanaka, Aerospace CorporationA method for producing a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) from SysML models is presented which (1) automatically identifies failure propagation paths through multiple hierarchical levels and (2) produces 6 related analyses that provide additional insight into system safety and vulnerability to cyber attacks.

■ Session 09D Reliability Modeling II VenturaWednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Dongmei Chen Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA) (China)Moderator: Juergen Herrmann JSH-Consulting (Germany)These papers provide Reliability Modeling theories, such as Physics of failure (PoF) based coupling common cause failure mechanisms (CCCFM), PoF based Variable Reliability Demonstration Model (VRDM), Parameter-related wiener process model and coverage probability approaches ensuring the consumer’s risk.

09D1 A Physics of Failure Data Approach to Common Cause Failure Considering Component Degradation

Reuel Smith University of Maryland (United States)Mohammad Modarres, University of MarylandThis paper outlines a simulation of a two-unit parallel system where the physics-of-failure of each unit is modeled by multiple failure mechanisms where one of these mechanisms is identified as a coupling common cause failure mechanism (CCCFM). Several connections are identified and the difference between an empirical analysis of system reliability and an analysis based on physics-of-failure is outlined.


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09D2 A Method of Estimating Demonstrated Reliability Based on A Physics Failure Reliability ModelZhaofeng Huang Aerojet Rocketdyne (United States)A Method is presented for estimating demonstrated reliability that utilizes engineering analysis and testing data besides just success and failure.09D3 A Novel Parameter-related Wiener Process Model with its Estimation of Remaining

Useful Life in ADT AnalysisBingxin Yan Beihang University (China)Xiaobing Ma, Beihang UniversityA novel parameter-related Wiener process model with its estimation of remaining useful life in accelerated degradation(ADT) analysis.09D4 Exact Confidence Intervals for the Hazard Rate of a Series Reliability System Patrick Plum KAI - Kompetenzzentrum Automobil- und Industrieelektronik GmbH (Austrias)Horst Lewitschnig, Infineon Technologies Austria AG; Jürgen Pilz, Alpen-Adria Universität KlagenfurtA model for interval estimation of the hazard rate of a series reliability system is discussed. By simulation, ensured coverage of the confidence intervals is demonstrated.

■ Session 09E Safety Critical Systems and Diagnostics Smoketree CWednesday, 1:30 PM – 3:30 PM

Session Chair: Ying Shi ASQ (United States) Moderator: Lance Fiondella University of Massachusetts/US Army Research Laboratory (United States)This session explores the applications of innovative diagnostics/predictions methods and human factors models in various safety critical domain, i.e. aerospace, nuclear etc.

09E1 Human Factors Correlation Analysis for Nuclear Micro-reactors Based on Literature Review and Evidence Theory

Yunfei Zhao The Ohio State University (United States)Patrick Tosh, Carol Smidts, The Ohio State University; Ronald BoringWe study dependence relations between human factors (e.g. level of automation, situation awareness) for advanced nuclear micro-reactors.09E2 Aviation Data Analytics in MRO Operations: Prospects and PitfallsKonstantinos P. Stamoulis Aviation Academy, Faculty of Technology, Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences (United States)Asteris Apostolidis, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines; Maurice Pelt, Aviation Academy, Faculty of Technology, Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences (AUAS) Amsterdam, NetherlandsFrom data collection to sophisticated analytics, what are the opportunities and challenges the aviation MRO industry currently faces?09E3 Optimal RUL Estimation: A State-of-Art Digital Twin ApplicationMohamad Danish Anis University of Toronto (Canada)Sharareh Taghipour, Ryerson University; Chi-Guhn LeeA digital twin application of estimating remaining useful life using deep learning and probability distribution is discussed. The objective of the methodology is to achieve high accuracy while considering uncertainty and also the need for real time synchronization for the digital twin. The main constraints with the available data-set are the large size and highly sporadic nature of the sensor data collected.09E4 Fault Diagnosis and Prediction Method for Valve Clearance of Diesel Engine

Based on Linear RegressionYinglai Liu School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University (China)Wenbing Chang, School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University; Siyue Zhang, Shenghan ZhouPrevious studies mostly classify valve clearance faults based on fault classification, and can not accurately diagnose and predict the specific value of valve clearance. Therefore, in specific applications, these diagnostic and prediction methods will have some limitations. In view of this, the fault diagnosis and fault prediction method of valve clearance studied in this paper will be devoted to diagnosing and predicting the specific value of valve clearance of diesel engine.


23

2020TUTORIALS, SESSIONS, WORKSHOPS (cont.)

■ Session 10A Pitfalls of Accelerated Testing Mojave Learning CenterWednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

William Meeker Iowa State University (United States)Today there is an abundance of methods to plan and analyze accelerated tests, but there are also many pitfalls. This tutorial will present a number of particular case studies that illustrate some of these pitfalls, the ensuing problems that resulted, and particular remedies or corrections that were or should have been implemented to avoid the pitfalls.

■ Session 10B Fast Track Lifecycle Using SafeScrum and The Agile Safety Case Mojave Learning CenterWednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Thor Myklebust SINTEF Digital (Norway)Today there is an abundance of methods to plan and analyze accelerated tests, but there are also many pitfalls. This tutorial will present a number of particular case studies that illustrate some of these pitfalls, the ensuing problems that resulted, and particular remedies or corrections that were or should have been implemented to avoid the pitfalls.

■ Session 10C DoD Panel: Model-Based Failure Modes Effects Analysis SierraWednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Session Chair: Walter Tomczykowski

Tomczykowski Group LLC (United States)

Moderator: Andy Monje Office of the Under Secretary of Defense Research and Engineering (United States)The increased use of model-based engineering (MBE) is changing how R&M engineering design practices and methods are conducted. One of the most important engineering design activities emphasized by the DoD is Failure Modes and E"ects Analysis (FMEA). The DoD, in collaboration with DoD prime contractors and original equipment manufacturers, is developing the methods needed to implement MBE FMEA. The panelists will discuss three topics: How SysML supports FMEA Generation, Government-Industry Collaboration in a MBE environment, and MBE Contract Language for FMEA. This panel is a "reverse panel", instead of questions from the audience, panelists will ask the audience questions such as: How do you define requirements for the FMEA SysML model? What is the best method to perform a criticality analysis in the absence of objective probability estimates? In an MBE environment, how should DoD and Industry work together? How should the Government specify access to data and models? Should we contract for a specific modelling language? Thinking about answers to these questions will be most beneficial for a successful DoD "Reverse" Panel.Panelists:Karen Bain US Navy, Naval Air Warfare Center (United States)Model Based Engineering: Government/Industry CollaborationStu Okraski U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command – Aviation & Missile Center (United States)Model Based Engineering (MBE) Contract Language For Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA)Myron Hecht The Aerospace Corporation Senior Project Leader (United States)How SysML Supports Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) Generation

■ Session 10D Discrete Event Modeling and Simulation VenturaWednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Session Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum (United States)Moderator: Vladimir Crk UTC Aerospace Systems (United States)This session presents papers including stochastic modeling and simulation in reliability engineering and manufacturing.

10D1 Modeling and Simulation: Balancing Performance, Schedule, and CostRon Vancourt Systecon (United States)Given the rapid technological advances realized in the defense industry, asymmetric threats present new challenges to the US Navy. Directed Energy (DE), a rapid prototyping, experimentation and demonstration (RPED) initiative seeks to develop and deliver advanced laser capabilities to the fleet to mitigate the newly discovered capability gaps.10D2 Non-Homogeneous Markov Models and Their Application in ReliabilityJohn Bessman PACCAR Technical Center (United States)Markov Models with time-dependent transition probabilities can improve model accuracy. This paper will present a framework for creating these models along with a case study.10D3 Modeling Common Cause Failures in TMR with Repair Systems Using Markov ChainsMatthew Cannon Brigham Young University (United States)Andrew Keller, Brigham Young University; Juan Andres Perez Celis, Brigham Young University; Michael Wirthlin, Brigham Young UniversityThe traditional TMR with repair Markov chain model is expanded to include events that simultaneously affect multiple TMR domains. Implications of this new model are explored and discussed.

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10D4 Simulation-based Robust Scheduling for Smart Factories Considering Improved Test AllocationsUlrich Hipp Siemens AG (Germany)Tobias Zeh, Andreas Joanni, Siemens AG; Wolfram Klein, Siemens AG; Stefan Rothbauer, Siemens AG; Marc Zeller, Siemens AGFlexible manufacturing control strategies are described by modeling decision-making agents, which are robust to failures and changes of the manufacturing process. In addition, the application of decision-theoretic strategies leads to higher throughput and improved quality by improving test allocations.

■ Session 10E Model-based System Engineering for Reliability Analysis Smoketree CWednesday, 3:45 PM – 5:45 PM

Session Chair: Jess Leszczynski Sierra Nevada Corporation (United States)Moderator: Mohammadsadegh Mobin

FCA US LLC (United States)

This session covers the latest advances in Model-Based System Engineering (MBSE) and highlights the advantages of using such a model construct in the field of reliability.

10E1 Engaging Supportability Analyses through Model-Based DesignRaymond Beshears Raytheon (United States)Andrew Bouma, Raytheon CompanyModel-based designs provide an architecture framework to leverage design information for conducting supportability analyses.10E2 Obtaining Fault Trees Through SysML Diagrams: A MBSE approach for Reliability AnalysisGilberto Francisco Martha de Souza

Fundação de Apoio a Universidade de São Paulo CNPJ 68.314.830/0001-27 (Brazil)

Arthur Henrique Melani, Polytechnic School - University of São PauloModel based system engineering tools used to support development of reliability models of complex systems.10E3 3D RAM Modeling & Simulation in a Model Based Systems Engineering EnvironmentBrent Dingle Raytheon (United States)Keith Janasak, Raytheon Company; James Coleman Eubanks, RaytheonThis paper addresses how a major aerospace company has been leveraging 3D models in a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) environment to more cost effectively address the customer’s design, operational, and maintenance requirements of the product through virtual prototyping.10E4 A RAMS® Journey for Micro Turbine Power GenerationEvan Franke Capstone Turbine Inc (United States)Gerard (Gerry) Cohen, Ops-A-La-CarteOur RAMS® journey for micro turbines contains helpful guidance for any companies seeking a roadmap of how to incorporate reliability and availability analytics and principles into the fabric of their organization, especially through the early phases of company maturity.

■ General Reception and Banquet California Grand Ballroom (Madera & Pasadena)

Wednesday, 6:30 PM – 9:30 PM

Banquet Speaker

Roger Hayes

President and CEO Sierra Technical Services, Inc.

"R&M in a Model Based System Environment"

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Thursday • January 30, 2020

■ Session 11A Analysis of Large Repairable System Reliability Data Sets Mojave Learning CenterThursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Xiao Liu University of Arkansas (United States)This tutorial introduces an approach called RF-MCF for analyzing large reliability data sets with covariates for repairable systems. The method integrates the Random Forests (RF) algorithm and the classical non-parametric statistical method for estimating the Mean Cumulative Function (MCF).

■ Session 11B Dynamic Reliability and Artificial Intelligence CatalinaThursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Vitali Volovoi Consultant (United States)The tutorial provides an overview of recent changes in dynamic reliability analytics in the context of emerging artificial intelligence ecosystem.

■ Session 11C Integrated Reliability SierraThursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Session Chair: Jess Leszczynski Sierra Nevada Corporation (United States)Moderator: Evan Franke Capstone Turbine Inc. (United States)This session covers a diverse span of recent advancements in reliability ranging from large scale post-disaster recovery optimization to small scale supercapacitor life modeling.

11C1 Post-disaster Recovery Optimization for Road-bridge Network Considering Restoration Ability and Economic loss

Jiangbin Zhao Northwestern Polytechnical University (China)Ming Zuo, University of Alberta; Zhiqiang Cai, Northwestern Polytechnical University; Shubin SI, Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityThis paper investigates the post-disaster recovery problem for a road-bridge network considering factors such as the available repair modes, the target bridge damage level after repair, and the number of simultaneous construction teams. The objectives are to maximize the restoration ability and minimize the economic loss.11C2 Contribution of Risk from Human Failures in PRA ModelsJohn Weglian EPRI (United States)Jeff Riley, EPRI; Mary Presley, EPRIThis paper will investigate the human error contribution to risk for various hazards.11C3 Supercapacitor Life Modeling Using Supplier Data and Product Usage ProfileMarta Wlodarczyk Baxter Healthcare (United States)Ali Jamnia, Baxter HealthcareA proper understanding of supercapacitors life is an important factor in selecting a cost-effective component. This presentation proposes an alternative analysis method to make future failure predictions from input data considering population age distribution and failure rates using a Physics of Failure and Monte Carlo approach.11C4 Performance of Reliability Models for Repairable Systems: Dealing with Information UncertaintyOlivier Blancke Institut de recherche d’Hydro-Québec (IREQ) (Canada)Gabriel McCarthy, Université de Sherbrooke; Payette Mathieu, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières; Lucie Bibeau, Institut de recherche d’Hydro-Québec (IREQ); Jean-François Boudreau, Institut de recherche d’Hydro-Québec (IREQ); Alain Côté, Institut de recherche d’Hydro-Québec (IREQ); Dragan Komljenovic, Institut de recherche d’Hydro-Québec (IREQ); Darragi Messaoudi, Hydro-Québec; Bannour Souilah, Hydro-QuébecThis paper propose a methodology for reliability assessment of critical repairable equipment that takes account uncertainties.

■ Session 11D Reliability Modeling III VenturaThursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Session Chair: Dongmei Chen Beijing San-talking Testing Engineering Academy co. Ltd. (STEA) (China)Moderator: Mathew Thomas CNH Industrial (United States)These papers provide Reliability Modeling methods for complex systems, such as novel efficient recursive formula for complex phased-mission systems, Functional data Analysis (FDA) in gun barrel degradation using machine learning, Advanced Radars Enterprise Sustainment Model (ARESM) for ship systems Digital twin, and the novel methods for reducing the over-optimism in system level reliability estimates.

11D1 A Robust and Efficient Algorithm for Reliability Assessment of Phased-Mission SystemsSuprasad Amari BAE Systems (United States)This paper presents a robust and computational efficient algorithm for accurate reliability analysis of complex phased-mission systems.

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2020

11D2 Degradation Analysis of Gun Barrel Life Using Machine Learning and Design of ExperimentsChristopher Drake US Army ARDEC (United States)Douglas Ray, US Army CCDC Armaments CenterThe US Army M240 Small-Caliber Machine Gun Barrel degrades as round-count increases, leading to velocity drop and mismatch between aiming/fire control and round impact at range. A barrel erosion study was executed using Design of Experiments, and Functional Principle Components Analysis (PCA) was used to establish accurate predictive models that the DoD uses to inform round-count thresholds for different ammunition types.11D3 Transitioning a Reliability Model into a Digital TwinAlastair Moubray Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems (United States)Philip Bedard, Raytheon Company; James Miro, DoD; Robert Stukes, DoDCreating a system reliability model for a large fleet of differing systems, and using this model to drive development of digital twins for the various systems.11D4 Reducing Over-Optimism in Reliability EstimatesHarry Jones NASA (United States)Actual system reliability typically falls well short of estimates. Many reasons are known, but the fundamental cause is optimism bias, also seen in budgeting and scheduling. The control is sticking closely to historical rates and limiting adjustments.

■ Session 11E Complex Systems and Healthcare Reliability Smoketree CThursday, 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Session Chair: Paul Franklin Genpact (United States)Moderator: Trevor Craney Collins Aerospace (United States)Papers in this session discuss reliability modeling in health care, safety, and system architecture.

11E1 A Model-Based Framework for Analyzing the Security of System ArchitecturesKit Siu GE Global Research (United States)Heber Herencia-zapana, GE Global Research; Daniel Prince, GE Aviation Systems; Abha Moitra, GE Global ResearchWe introduce a compositional, model-based framework for modeling, visualizing and analyzing the security of system architectures. This work extends the framework we developed previously for analyzing safety.11E2 Early Combined Safety - Security Defense in Depth Assessment of Complex SystemsNikolaos Papakonstantinou VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)Joonas Linnosmaa, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland; Ahmed Bashir, Department of National Defence Canada; Timo Malm, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland; Douglas Van Bossuyt, Naval Postgraduate SchoolThis paper proposes a model-driven method for a hybrid (safety-security) assessment for early designs of complex systems.11E3 Modelling Reliability and Efficiency of English Community Pharmacy ProcessesRasa Remenyte-Prescott University of Nottingham (England)The paper focuses on modelling reliability and efficiency of pharmacy dispensing processes. A Coloured Petri net approach is proposed which is implemented within an Ant Colony Optimization framework.11E4 An Integrated System Dependability Framework for Medical Systems DesignScott Hareland Medtronic (Ireland)System dependability by design through a combined system engineering approach and reliability, safety, and availability analysis through system engineering design outputs.

■ Session 12A Comparing 3 Human Reliability Methodologies: A Hands-on Tutorial Mojave Learning CenterThursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Diana DeMott SAIC (United States)The objective of the tutorial is to provide attendees with an overview of basic Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) concepts combined with an opportunity to participate in a simplified exercise intended to demonstrate: human reliability methodology differences, how values can be developed, significance of assumptions used and the importance of the analyst. The tutorial is not intended to teach attendees how to perform an HRA, but to provide a better understanding of underlying differences in common methodologies and how different methods, assumptions and analysts can contribute to the values that are developed.

■ Session 12B Effective Design Verification Plan and Report (DVP&R) for Reliability CatalinaThursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Huairui Guo FCA US LLC (United States)James Wrock FCA US LLC (United States)This tutorial discusses the key technical elements and management strategies for designing an effective reliability test. Topics such as determining sample size, stress level, life-stress relationship, and test duration will be covered.


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■ Session 12C Business Process and Economic Models SierraThursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Wendai Wang Lumentum (United States)Moderator: Rong Pan Arizona State University (China)In this session we present four excellent papers that discuss various business processes and models for improving system reliability and maintainability.

12C1 Microgrid Maintenance Strategies for Optimal Reliability and CostAnnette Skowronska U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (CCDC)

Ground Vehicle Systems Center (United States)Zissimos Mourelatos, Oakland UniversityA physics-based microgrid model has been developed in Simulink with various sources and loads. This study looks at the trade-off between microgrid reliability and the cost of repair, replacement and operation.12C2 Reliability Predictions Using Model-Based Criticality-Associated Similarity AnalysisAlazel Jackson Raytheon Company (United States)Tyrone Jackson, S-102 Mission Assurance Standards Working Group; Allura Jackson, CSULB; Kristella Jackson, California State University, Long BeachThe CASA methodology systematically develops a reliability prediction by applying an empirical-based step-wise conjecture.12C3 Reducing Software Testing Cost and Risk Madhav Phadke Phadke Associates, Inc. (United States)Kedar Phadke, Phadke Associates, Inc.Use of orthogonal arrays to reduce the cost of testing and time to market while ensuring that defects are not passed onto the customer, and Case Studies.12C4 Intersection of Systems and Reliability Engineering During New Product Development ProcessSarath Jayatilleka DaikinApplied Americas (United States)Discuss the utilization of Systems and Reliability Engineering Principles used during Product Development Process and Systems Engineering V-Model. Most of the time these disciplines intersect.

■ Session 12D Life Data Analysis II VenturaThursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Paul Franklin Genpact (United States) Moderator: Martin Dazer University of Stuttgart (Germany) Papers in this session discuss practical uses of life data analysis in testing, process, and remaining life assessment.

12D1 The Translation of Field Failures to the LaboratoryJon Rittgers Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals Ireland ltd (Ireland)David Benson, HP IncUnexpected field failures require new approaches to analyzing field data to understand the impact and develop new testing and data analysis methods to predict the impact of shipments and improvements.12D2 Using Life Data of Competing Failure Modes to Increase the Remaining Useful Life of Gear WheelsYvonne Gretzinger Institute of Machine Components - University of Stuttgart (Germany)Martin Dazer, University of Stuttgart; Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine ComponentsA strategy to increase lifetime of gear wheel by understanding how gear teeth fail.12D3 Reliability Demonstration Within the Framework of Event-based Endurance Testing

Considering Prior KnowledgeAlexander Grundler University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine Components (Germany)Marcel Göldenboth, Daimler AG; Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Machine ComponentsAn approach of reliability demonstration via endurance testing, based on events instead of solely using mileage, while considering prior knowledge12D4 Reliability Analysis of Flow Meters with Multiple Failure Modes in the Process IndustryElias Keedy Covestro LLC (Germany)Ying Liao, Texas Tech University; Yisha Xiang, Texas Tech UniversityReliability analysis of flow meters using a repairable system with multiple failure modes, left-truncated, and right-censored data to predict the evolution of each failure mode.


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2020

■ Session 12E Autonomous Systems and AI Smoketree CThursday, 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM

Session Chair: Ying Shi ASQ (United States)Moderator: Yunfei Zhao The Ohio State University (United States)This session presents the latest developments of machine learning for system (including autonomous systems) reliability and safety improvements.

12E1 Fault Detection Using Non-Linear Low Dimensional Representation of Sensor Data Deovrat Kakde SAS Institute (United States)Arin Chaudhuri, SAS Institute; Anya McGuirk, SAS Institute, Inc.; Yuwei Liao, SAS Institute, Inc.; Kai Shen, SAS InstituteIn this paper we present a methodology for fault detection using non-linear low dimensional representation of sensor data.12E2 Software and System Reliability Engineering for Autonomous Systems incorporating

Machine Learning Christian Ellis University of Massachusetts (United States)Aiden Gula, Saikath Bhattacharya, University of Massachusetts; Lance Fiondella, University of Massachusetts/US Army Research LaboratoryThis paper identifies connections between methods relevant to autonomous systems and reliability engineering. Discussion emphasizes the existence of methods within diverse literature to equip reliability engineers with additional structure to comprehend risk and allocate their mitigation efforts.12E3 Autonomous Cars, Trust and Safety Case for the PublicThor Myklebust SINTEF Digital (Norway)Tor Stålhane, Irene Wærø, Gunnar Jenssen, A safety case is normally developed to convince a third party that the product or system is safe. To ensure trustworthiness, we have suggested a one- to three-page safety case intended for the public.12E4 Dynamic Environmental Stress Screening Using Machine LearningJustin Brown Raytheon/ Southern Methodist University (United States)Ian Campbell, RaytheonThis paper seeks to improve the current approach to Environmental Stress Screening using Machine Learning to dynamically improve the reliability and process.

■ Colloquium Session Effective Design Verification Plan and Report (DVP&R) for Reliability Ballroom TerraceThursday, 12:15 AM – 2:15 PM

Session Chair: Jess Leszczynski Sierra Nevada Corporation (United States)This session covers a plethora of innovative research topics and technical advances in the RAMS® discipline.

§ Generic Equations for a Probabilistic Metric for Random Hardware Failures According to ISO 26262 § Comparison of Critical Bending Moment in a bridge based on Influence Line Diagrams and FOSM method § Why stochastic models are so famous, become infamous in Reliability Engineering § Trade-off between Sample Size and Test Time: Lessons Learned in Optimizing Reliability Demonstration Test Plan § Research on System Reliability of Eight-Rotor Fire-fighting UAVS § Environmental Stress Screening Approach Based on MIL-HDBK-344A Military Standard § High available, fault tolerant and safety critical subsea actuator system § Ensuring Safety in a New Technology Paradigm; Single Point Failures, Automation and Human Factors § A new metric for time-dependent mechanism reliability analysis § Practical experience of the dependability case to deliver real world benefits § Front End Analysis as a Reliability tool in today's Commercial of the Self Environment § Quantifying Soft error rate and demonstrating Systematic Capability of Programmable Electronic System § Is your organization ready for RAMS® digitalization? § Architecture-based Software Reliability incorporating Fault Tolerant Machine Learning § Improving the maintenance plan of anti-surge valves with life data analysis § Metalized Film Capacitor: The Need for a Reliability Test Standard § U.S. Army Software System Safety Example and Success § An Automotive EHPS Pump Software Reliability and Testing § Graceful System Degradation Using Monte Carlo Simulation § Electrical Overstress & Availability Estimation for PCB design § Reliability test profile design of hydraulic automatic transmission for forklift § Reliability Engineering | Environmental Conversion Factors for Missiles and Projectiles § Transient Absolute Maximum Rating (AMR) Project for Semiconductor Products, Phase 1


Papers and tutorials listed herein are reflective of papers and tutorials approved by the management committee as of 01/26/2020. During the colloquium there will also be iPad drawings.

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2020

While all sessions will contain elements of interest for the majority of participants, special disciplines are emphasized in individual sessions. If your profession tends to specialize in the areas listed in the first column below, we recommend you attend the sessions listed opposite your specialty.

RAMS® 2020 DISCIPLINE TRACKS

MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY

Participant Specialty

10:15-12:15pm

1:30-3:30pm

3:45-5:45pm

8:00-10:00am

10:15-12:15pm

1:30-3:30pm

3:45-5:45pm

8:00-10:00am

1:30-3:30pm

3:45-5:45pm

8:00-10:00am

10:15-12:15pm

Data Analysis 1A/2A 1B,1D 1A/2A 4A/5A,

4D

4A/5A, 5B, 5C,

5D6B, 6E 7C, 7D 8D 9D 10A 11A, 11D 12D

Design/Development

1C, 1D 5C, 5D 7E 8A 9A, 9C 10A 12A, 12B, 12C

Maintainability 1A/2A, 1E 1A/2A 3A 6B 7A, 7E 8E 9A

Maintenance 4C 6B, 6D 7A, 7E 8E 12C

Management 2D, 2E 3A 4B 6B, 6D 7A 8B 12A, 12B

Reliability 1A/2A, 1B, 1E

1A/2A, 2C

3A, 3B, 3D 4D 5B, 5D 6A, 6C,

6E 7A, 7D 8A 9A, 9B, 9C 10B, 10E

11A, 11B, 11C, 11D,

11E

12A, 12B, 12C, 12D

Risk Management & Analysis

1C 3D, 3E 5D, 5E 8B, 8C 9C, 9E 10B 11E 12E

Safety & Security

2E 3D, 3E 5E 8C, 8D 9C, 9E 10B 11E 12E

Simulation &Modeling

1A/2A, 1B 1A/2A 3B 5D 6A 7C, 7D 8A 9A 10D 12E

Software 4B 6C, 6E 7B, 7C 11B 12E

Statistics &Probability

1A/2A, 1B, 1D

1A/2A, 2B 3B 4A/5A,

4D4A/5A, 5B, 5E 6A 7B 8A 9B 10A 11A 12D

SystemsEngineering

2C, 2D 3C 4B 6B 7E 9A, 9C 10A, 10E 12A, 12B, 12C

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2020

Accelerated Life TestingAutonomous Systems and AIAvailabilityBig Data and IoT Applications in R&MBusiness Process ImprovementDesign Optimization Using R&M TechniquesDiscrete Event Modeling & SimulationEconomic Models for R&M EquipmentDiagnostics and PrognosticsFMEAFault Tolerance and Safety Critical SystemsFault Tree Analysis

Human ReliabilityKnowledge Based TrainingLife Data AnalysisMaintenance Models and MethodologiesPhysical Reliability ModelsPrognostics and Health ManagementQuality Appl. in Electronics Design & Mfg.R&M Applications in AerospaceR&M Applications in Health CareR&M Applications in Infrastructure ManagementR&M Applications in ManufacturingR&M Applications in Service

R&M Applications in SupportabilityR&M and Quality Appl. in Communications Design & Mfg.R&M ManagementReliability ModelingReliability Growth AnalysisRepairable SystemsRisk Analysis and ManagementSecurity and Dependability AnalysisSoftware Reliability and TestingSoftware SafetySystem Safety AnalysisWarranty Data Analysis and Management

The Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium January 25-28, 2021

Rosen Plaza Hotel, Orlando, Florida ABSTRACT SUBMISSION DEADLINE — Friday, April 16, 2020The 67th Annual Reliability & Maintainability Symposium (RAMS®) will be held at the Rosen Plaza Hotel, Orlando Florida during the week of January 25-28, 2021. The theme for RAMS® 2021 is “RAM in the Era of Big Data”. With the advent and emergence of significant data availability for fielded equipment. Reliability assessment can now be accomplished through the collection and timely analysis of equipment-specific field data and health monitoring systems. Engaging advanced techniques, such as machine learning and other advanced analytics, with these data sets enable the state-of-the-art to evolve to a much more proactive, effective, and cost-efficient reliability management approach.

With this in mind, we invite you to share your theoretical or practical findings of your research, engineering case studies, success stories, lessons learned, R&M based analyses and simulations, or R&M discoveries at RAMS® 2021 Orlando. Tell us how you are designing, optimizing, and supporting systems (both hardware and software) through the execution of RAMS® disciplines. RAMS® is the premier forum for sharing your experience, knowledge, and road maps to success. Make your contribution to the advancement of the RAMS® disciplines and enjoy participating in the rich exchange of ideas and solutions. We want you to contribute your unique experience to our synergistic symposium sponsored by eight professional societies. Start planning to submit your paper or tutorial now.

RAMS® seeks to provide a mix of papers and tutorials. Papers are the best medium to document advancements in the state-of-the-art research, and those accepted after being properly peer reviewed will be published. A short technical presentation with discussion period (approximately half an hour) will be given for each paper. It is the policy of RAMS® to publish all papers presented at RAMS® in IEEE Xplore. Tutorials provide exposure to more fundamental topics. Their technical depth ranges from introductory to advanced. Tutorials are presented in two-hour in-depth sessions. Examples of the most recent written papers and tutorials are available in the 2020 Proceedings and the 2020 Tutorial Notes. The process for presenting a paper or tutorial at RAMS® 2021 begins with your submission of an abstract. Your submittal should address topics pertinent to Reliability and Maintainability and that are relevant to our theme.

ABSTRACT TOPICS ARE:

2021 CALL FOR PAPERS & TUTORIALS

Theme: “RAM In The Era of Big Data”

31

20202021 CALL FOR PAPERS & TUTORIALS (cont.)

If you wish to present a paper or tutorial at RAMS® 2021, now is the time to begin your preparation. To have your paper or tutorial considered, you must first submit an abstract describing the paper or tutorial. The paper must represent your original work and should not be published or presented in any other journals or conferences. Tutorials must address key areas of broad interest in reliability and maintainability engineering.

Abstracts must be submitted via rams.org and the abstract submission process will be available from March 1, 2020, until April 16, 2020.

To submit an abstract for a paper or tutorial, an author must provide the following:

• A title of no more than 80 characters• An abstract (all text—no equations, figures, or

tables) of no more than 1000 words• Names and contact information for all authors• An indication of which author will present the

paper (if it is accepted for the Symposium)• Relevant topic areas for their abstract (from the

list on the previous page of this Call for Papers)

The name(s) of the author(s) should not be included in either the title or in the abstract.

Authors will also be asked to indicate if any authors are full-time students (to assess qualification for the RAMS® student paper award), and to which (if any) of the nine RAMS® sponsoring societies each author belongs. Membership in a RAMS® sponsoring society is not required for acceptance. Each author can submit no more than four paper abstracts and no more than four tutorial abstracts for consideration. Authors cannot be added to a paper or tutorial after the abstract submission deadline.

The abstract submission procedure for papers and tutorials is the same with the following exceptions: they both use different links to upload the abstracts, each paper can have no more than four authors and each tutorial can have no more than two authors. Upon receipt of your abstract, you will receive a confirmation e-mail from RAMS® that your abstract was received. Therefore, it is critical that all authors provide and maintain a valid e-mail address that can accept e-mails. If an author moves or changes addresses, the author must provide their new contact information to the RAMS® Program Committee.

Note that all correspondence regarding papers and tutorials will be sent to the e-mail address of the author who submits the abstract.

Review Procedure for Abstracts and Associated Papers

In May 2020, the RAMS® Program Committee selects

abstracts that will proceed to develop draft/candidate papers and tutorials. Selections are based on innovative-ness, technical merit, clarity, and relevance to the Symposium theme and topics listed previously. Authors will be notified of abstract approval in June 2020. Authors are required to submit complete drafts of both the paper and presentation slides by the end of July 2020. Draft or candidate papers shall be submitted without author identification on the paper in order to accommodate a blind peer review. The specific requirements for papers and presentation slides will be communicated to authors in a timely fashion. Submitted draft papers will be subjected to review by the Program Committee and RAMS® Editorial Board. The draft papers will also be submitted to IEEE CrossCheck plagiarism detection tool. Authors will be given feedback on their draft papers and presentation slides by the end of August 2020 with follow on additional editorial changes as necessary.

Final paper and presentation slides are due by the end of September 2020. Final papers will be reviewed by both the Program Committee and the RAMS® Proceedings Editor. At this time, authors must also complete a RAMS® Copyright Form, and at least one author of papers must register (at a reduced fee) for the Symposium.

By submitting an abstract for a paper, the author is accepting the condition that a paper may be rejected at any time if the Program Committee determines that the author is failing to comply with RAMS® deadlines or policies, or if the Program Committee determines that the content of the paper is not of sufficient quality to merit publication in the Proceedings. For more information contact the Program Chair at [email protected]. The author is accepting the condition that if their paper is ultimately accepted into the Proceedings, at least one author on the paper will attend the Symposium, and present the paper at the Symposium in reasonably fluent English.

Review Procedure for Tutorials

The review procedure for tutorials is identical to the review procedure for papers except that they are reviewed by a Tutorial Committee and are not subjected to a blind review. Authors of accepted tutorials receive gratis registration for Symposium. For more information, contact the Tutorials Chair, at [email protected].

By submitting an abstract for a tutorial, the author is accepting the condition that if their tutorial is ultimately accepted for the Symposium, the author and/or co-author will attend the Symposium and deliver the tutorial at the Symposium in reasonably fluent English.

32

2020

MANAGEMENT COMMITTEEGeneral Chair

Julio Pulido, Nortek

Vice General ChairSean Carter, NASA

TreasurerCharlie Plotkin, Ford Motor Company, Retired

Assistant TreasurerMike McKelvey, Boeing

SecretaryJess Leszczynski, Sierra Nevada Corporation

Advanced Registration ConsultantRay Sears, Consultant

Program CommitteeOm Yadav, North Dakota State UniversityWendai Wang, LumentumJess Leszczynski, Sierra Nevada CorporationYing Shi, ASQ RDNate Jambulingam, NASA-HQBill Haughey, ReliaTrainPaul Franklin, GenpactDongmei Chen, STEALori Bechtold, Retired

Tutorials CommitteeCaroline Lubert, James Madison UniversityKellie Schneider, University of DaytonJohn Healy, Federal Communications CommissionVasiliy Krivtsov, The Ford Motor CompanyPhil Mongan, ARES Corporation

Publicity CommitteeSteve Glenn, Raytheon CompanyTroy Schwartz, AccentureRobert Schmedake, Boeing

Arrangements CommitteeMelvin Downes, ASQ ECDMing Li, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionMasoud Pourali, KimiaPower PLLCMohammad Hijawi, FCA US LLC

Registration CommitteeDmitry Tananko, General Dynamics Land SystemKen Dalton, Retired Reliability EngineerJohn Klohoker, NASA/JPLBrian Schadowsky, BAE SystemsWalter Tomczykowski, Tomczykowski Group LLC

Exhibits CommitteeDavid F. Barber, Scien-Tech Assoc., Inc

Proceedings CommitteeJoel A. Nachlas, Virginia Tech

BOARD OF DIRECTORSChair

Charlie Plotkin, Ford Motor Company, Retired

SecretarySean Carter, NASA

ASQ – Electronics & Communications DivisionDawn Onalfo, IBM Global Services, RetiredCharlie Plotkin, Ford Motor Company, Retired

ASQ – Reliability & Risk DivisionTrevor Craney, Collins Aerospace

IEEE Reliability SocietyTom Fagan, TLF AssociatesRick Jones, Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection & Insurance Co.

IESTDustin Aldridge, Raytheon Missile Systems

IISEGeoffrey Okogbaa, Univ. of South Florida &

Federal University Wukari, NIGERIAEd Pohl, University of Arkansas

ISSS Mike McKelvey, Boeing

SAESuprasad Amari, BAE SystemsAron Brall, Millennium Engineering and Integration Co.

SRERobert Loomis, Jr., NASA Retired

LONG RANGE PLANNING COMMITTEEKeith Janasak, Raytheon CompanyHenry Hartt, BAE Systems, retiredDan Deans, Millennium Engineering and Integration Co.

ADVISORY BOARDDavid Coit, Rutgers UniversityAndrew Monje, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense

Research and EngineeringAli Mosleh, University of California, Los AngelesPantelis Vassiliou, Vassiliou VenturesFrank Groen, NASA Office of Safety and Mission AssuranceDebra Herrera, Raytheon CompanyDan Deans, Millennium Engineering and Integration Co.

RAMS® ORGANIZATION

33

2020

ASSOCIATE EDITORS PARTICIPATING ORGANIZATIONSAccentureAggrekoARES CorporationBAE SystemsBoeingFederal Communications CommissionFederal University Wukari, NIGERIAFCA US LLCGeneral Dynamics Land SystemGenpactHartford Steam Boiler Inspection & Insurance Co.James Madison UniversityKimiaPower PLLCLumentumMAB ConsultantsMillennium Engineering and Integration Co.NASANASA - JPLNortekNorth Dakota State UniversityRaytheon CompanyReliaTrainRutgers UniversityScien-Tech AssociatesSierra Nevada CorporationThe Ford Motor CompanyTLF AssociatesTomczykowski Group LLCU.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionUCLAUniversity of ArkansasUniversity of DaytonUniversity of South FloridaUS Department of DefenseUTC Aerospace SystemsVassiliou VenturesVirginia Tech

RAMS® ORGANIZATION (cont.)

Ramesh Anapathur BoeingChristophe Berenguer Grenoble Institute of TechnologyYizhak Bot BQR Reliability Engineering Ltd.Don Bridy Int'l System Safety Society-

Editorial Board (Lockheed Martin - Retired)

Gregory Butler Nordson ASYMTEKMarcel Chevalier Schneider ElectricJJ Cho AggrekoAbishai Daniel Intel CorpYiming Deng Electrical Engineering, University

of Colorado, DenverYavuz Goktas GenentechKatrina Groth Mechanical Engineering University

of MarylandHarry Guo FCA Fiat Chrysler AutomobilesZhaofeng Huang Aerojet RocketdyneWei Huang Rockwell AutomationC. C. Jane Business Administration Ling Tung

UniversityDeovrat "Kev" Kakde SAS Institute Inc.Ramdev Kanapady mscworks.netWei-Ting Kary Chien Worldwide Semiconductor

Manufacturing CorporationAndre Kleyner Delphi Electronics & SafetyEdwin Vijay Kumar Vizag SteelClifton Lancaster Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection

& Insurance CompanyAnatoly Lisnianski Israel Electric CompanyAllan Mense Raytheon Missile SystemsGarron Morris Space Systems/LoralCharles G. Muniak Syracuse Safety ResearchWilkistar Otieno Industrial And Manufacturing

Engineering University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Jose Ramirez-Marquez Stevens Institute of TechnologyEmmanuel Remy EDFPaul Schimmerling Renault - RetiredSharareh Taghipour Mechanical and Industrial

Engineering Ryerson UniversitySameer Vittal GE DigitalQunyong Wang STEA - ChinaDan Williams Quality Vision International, IncMin Xie Industrial Engineering City

University of Hong KongSoumaya Yacout Mathematical and Industrial

Engineering École Polytechnique, Montreal

34

2020

General Reception & Banquet - Ballroom Terrace and California Grand Ballroom

Spouses Hospitality Breakfast -Santa Rosa

Registration - Smoketree F

Welcome & Keynote on Monday - Oasis 3A

Exhibit Area - Renaissance Ballroom Foyer and Pasadena (see schedule)

SANTA ROSA

MOJAVE LEARNING

CENTER

CATALINA

MADERA

CALIFORNIA GRAND

BALLROOM

F

REN

AIS

SAN

CE

BALL

RO

OM

FO

YER

ANDREAS FOYER

C OASIS 3A

WELCOME AND

KEYNOTE

PASADENA

BALL

ROO

M T

ERR

ACE

SIERRA VENTURA

BALL

ROO

M T

ERR

ACE

35

2020

General Reception & Banquet - Ballroom Terrace and California Grand Ballroom

MOJAVE LEARNING

CENTER

CATALINA

MADERA

CALIFORNIA GRAND

BALLROOM

F

RE

NA

ISS

AN

CE

BA

LL

RO

OM

FO

YE

RANDREAS FOYER

C OASIS 3AWELCOME

AND KEYNOTE

PASADENA

SIERRA VENTURA

TRACK A

TRACK B

Advisory Board Panel

TRACK C TRACK D

TRACK E

Track A – Mojave Learning Center

Advisory Board Panel – Madera

Track D – Ventura

Track B – Catalina

Track C – Sierra

Meal Room & Exhibits – Pasadena

Track E – Smoketree C

Registration – Smoketree F

Welcome and Keynote – Oasis 3A

Tutorial and Paper Sessions

THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM SAFETY SOCIETY

SOCIETY OF RELIABILITYENGINEERS

® ®

DIAMOND PATRON

SPONSORS

RAMS® and the RAMS® logo are Registered Trademarks of IEEECover Graphic: www.hedi-label.com • Design and layout: ©BDJdesign

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