Roberts T. JonesRoberts T. Jones Education and Workforce Policy Education and Workforce Policy

June 14, 2006June 14, 2006

THE JOBS REVOLUTIONTHE JOBS REVOLUTION

Messages From A Changing World:Illinois’s ‘Pipe Line’ to Economic

Success

Illinois Education/Workforce Summit

The Global RealityThe Global Reality

American Economic Perspective(1945-2000)American Economic Perspective(1945-2000) American Dominance…No CompetitionAmerican Dominance…No Competition Unskilled Jobs with Good Pay and BenefitsUnskilled Jobs with Good Pay and Benefits High Standard of LivingHigh Standard of Living Universal Education, HE Ed Access, & R&D InvestmentsUniversal Education, HE Ed Access, & R&D Investments Flexible Labor Market PoliciesFlexible Labor Market Policies

Growth in Global Competition(1970 forward)Growth in Global Competition(1970 forward) Population Larger, Younger, & More Urban (51%)Population Larger, Younger, & More Urban (51%) Availability of Technology and Financial MobilityAvailability of Technology and Financial Mobility Political and Economic StabilityPolitical and Economic Stability Education & R&D InvestmentsEducation & R&D Investments New Trade and Economic PartnershipsNew Trade and Economic Partnerships

CHALLENGE TO AMERICACHALLENGE TO AMERICA

Increasing Global Competition Increasing Global Competition

Developing NationsDeveloping Nations

19701970 2 Times 2 Times

20052005 5 Times5 Times

20252025 9 Times9 Times

WWorld Bankorld Bank

Education GainsEducation Gains

19901990 20032003

Ghana Ghana Adult LitAdult Lit 58.5 73.8 58.5 73.8EthiopiaEthiopia PrimaryPrimary 31.8 31.8 66.0 66.0Thailand Thailand Secondary 30.8 81.4Secondary 30.8 81.4ChileChile TertiaryTertiary 21.3 21.3 42.4 42.4

Kuwait Kuwait PrimaryPrimary 60.2 93.6 60.2 93.6SecondarySecondary 42.9 42.9 89.3 89.3TertiaryTertiary 12.1 20.9 12.1 20.9

World Bank (Ed Stats)World Bank (Ed Stats)

Developing NationsDeveloping NationsNow Constitute…Now Constitute…

40% of the Worlds 50 Largest Economies40% of the Worlds 50 Largest Economies

50% of the 50 Fastest Growing Economies50% of the 50 Fastest Growing Economies

70% of the 20 Fast Growing in Industrial Output70% of the 20 Fast Growing in Industrial Output

5.5% Annual Growth in HE Grads vs 1%5.5% Annual Growth in HE Grads vs 1%

20% of the 50 Largest R&D Investors20% of the 50 Largest R&D Investors

90% of Worlds S/E in Asia by 201090% of Worlds S/E in Asia by 2010

EconomistEconomist

Market ImpactsMarket Impacts Growth of Educated and Skilled Growth of Educated and Skilled

WorkforceWorkforce

Increased ProductivityIncreased Productivity

Increased QualityIncreased Quality

InnovationInnovation

Lower WageLower Wage Hagel/BrownHagel/Brown The Only Sustainable EdgeThe Only Sustainable Edge

America’s Leadership.. America’s Leadership..

US Share of World Output:US Share of World Output:• Was 40% down to 21%Was 40% down to 21%

US Industrial Patents:US Industrial Patents:• Only 52% are US Patents…Lowest in HistoryOnly 52% are US Patents…Lowest in History

World Published Research:World Published Research:• US was 61% down to 29%US was 61% down to 29%

Primary/Secondary EdPrimary/Secondary Ed• From #1 to #9 by 2003From #1 to #9 by 2003

College Attendance:College Attendance:• US was 1US was 1stst in World down to 6 in World down to 6thth

Council on Competitiveness

It’s Not That We Are Failing…It’s Not That We Are Failing…

SchoolsSchools• Achievement in Early Grades, Minorities, and HE ParticipationAchievement in Early Grades, Minorities, and HE Participation

CompaniesCompanies• Increased Competitiveness, Productivity, & New IndustriesIncreased Competitiveness, Productivity, & New Industries

Labor UnionsLabor Unions• Responding to New Market Realities and Job StructuresResponding to New Market Realities and Job Structures• I.E. I.E. CWA, Plumbers and Pipe Fitters,etcCWA, Plumbers and Pipe Fitters,etc

EconomyEconomy• Job Growth High & Unemployment Lowest in WorldJob Growth High & Unemployment Lowest in World• High GDP/GNP Growth & Increased Standard of LivingHigh GDP/GNP Growth & Increased Standard of Living

““WE ARE IN A RACE TO THE TOP”WE ARE IN A RACE TO THE TOP”

““The United States Can Still Prosper The United States Can Still Prosper In a World Where Its Labor Costs Are In a World Where Its Labor Costs Are

Higher Than The Competition’s,Higher Than The Competition’s,

ButBut It cannot Do That If The It cannot Do That If The Cheaper Workers Abroad AreCheaper Workers Abroad Are

Also Better Educated”Also Better Educated” NY Times, Sept 6NY Times, Sept 6

CHALLENGE TO AMERICACHALLENGE TO AMERICA

Economic Impact of ChangingEconomic Impact of Changing DemographicsDemographics

Future US Labor Force…Future US Labor Force…‘‘Smaller’Smaller’

DemographicsDemographics– Slow Population Growth (1% PY)Slow Population Growth (1% PY)

– .03% by 2030.03% by 2030

– Slow Labor Force Growth (Less than 1% yr)Slow Labor Force Growth (Less than 1% yr)

– Aging Population (Fewer Working Age)Aging Population (Fewer Working Age)

– Growth in Minorities and Immigrant PopulationGrowth in Minorities and Immigrant Population

Illinois Population Growth .05% PYIllinois Population Growth .05% PYDecline in Labor ForceDecline in Labor ForceDecline in Younger EntrantsDecline in Younger Entrants

Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

‘‘More DiverseMore Diverse’’

19801980 2020202020502050

WhiteWhite 82% 82% 63% 53% 63% 53%

Minority 18%Minority 18% 37% 47%37% 47%

Hispanic 6%Hispanic 6% 17% 24%17% 24%

BLSBLS Illinois Workforce 1/3 Minority Illinois Workforce 1/3 Minority by 2030by 2030

‘‘Less EducatedLess Educated’’

LossLoss in Workforce with BA or Higher Degrees in Workforce with BA or Higher Degrees

19801980 20202020 20502050

MajorityMajority 82%82% 63%63% 53%53%

(30% BA+)(30% BA+) (Ill 40.%) (Ill 40.%)

GrowtGrowthh in Workforce With in Workforce With LowestLowest Level Education Level Education

MinorityMinority 18%18% 37%37% 47%47%

(15% Black)(15% Black) (16%)(16%) (11% Hispanic BA+) (11% Hispanic BA+) (13%)(13%)

NCPPHENCPPHE

Economic ImpactEconomic Impact Decrease in Better Educated WorkforceDecrease in Better Educated Workforce Growth in Less Prepared WorkforceGrowth in Less Prepared Workforce Impact on Personal Income!!Impact on Personal Income!!

1980 to 2000 +41%1980 to 2000 +41%2000 to 2020 -02%2000 to 2020 -02%

Significant Loss of:Significant Loss of:• Tax RevenueTax Revenue• Consumer Spending, etcConsumer Spending, etc• Support for Higher EducationSupport for Higher Education

-5.6% Shortfall in Illinois State -5.6% Shortfall in Illinois State Revenue by 2014Revenue by 2014

NCPPHENCPPHE

CHANGING JOBS, SKILLS, CHANGING JOBS, SKILLS, AND EMPOLYMENT AND EMPOLYMENT

RELATIONSHIPSRELATIONSHIPS

Projected Job GrowthProjected Job Growth

1.4% Growth PY1.4% Growth PY (Ill 1.0%) (Ill 1.0%)Vs 1% Growth in Labor Force (Ill 0.6%)Vs 1% Growth in Labor Force (Ill 0.6%)

80% of New Jobs Require Some Post 80% of New Jobs Require Some Post Secondary EdSecondary Ed

12% Unskilled & Dropping to 2%12% Unskilled & Dropping to 2%

Bureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics

Future US Labor MarketsFuture US Labor Markets (continued)(continued)

ShortagesShortages– Demand for Skilled Labor Continues to GrowDemand for Skilled Labor Continues to Grow

Labor Shortage of 7 million by 2010Labor Shortage of 7 million by 2010 21 million in 202021 million in 2020

Health CareHealth Care TechnologyTechnologyEngineersEngineers TechniciansTechniciansTeachersTeachers ServicesServicesManufacturingManufacturing CorrectionsCorrections

-Illinois Reports Shortages:-Illinois Reports Shortages:TechnologyTechnology HealthHealthEngineeringEngineering ServicesServicesManufacturingManufacturing TeachersTeachers

BLS/IDESBLS/IDES

Impact of Productivity Impact of Productivity Job LossJob Loss

•Productivity 90%Productivity 90%•Outsourced Outsourced 10% 10%

From Low-skill to Knowledge JobsFrom Low-skill to Knowledge Jobs::– Complex Knowledge-basedComplex Knowledge-based– Higher-level AcademicsHigher-level Academics– Cognitive/ Problem-solvingCognitive/ Problem-solving

Reorganization of WorkReorganization of Work::– Multi-task & Cross-FunctionalMulti-task & Cross-Functional– Adaptable skills Adaptable skills – Increased ResponsibilityIncreased Responsibility

Education and Certification are Criteria for HiringEducation and Certification are Criteria for Hiring..

Employer ProjectionsEmployer Projections

Competitive Advantage by 2020Competitive Advantage by 2020• 98% Quality of Management98% Quality of Management• 95% Skills of Workforce95% Skills of Workforce• 92% Cross-functional Application92% Cross-functional Application

Greatest Workforce GrowthGreatest Workforce Growth• 85% Complex Knowledge-Based Role85% Complex Knowledge-Based Role• 85% Developed Communication & Judgment 85% Developed Communication & Judgment

Major Change in Next 20 yearsMajor Change in Next 20 years• 95% Point to Skills of Workforce95% Point to Skills of Workforce

Economist Survey 05Economist Survey 05

Horizontal and Mobil Labor MarketsHorizontal and Mobil Labor Markets

Job Tenure ShorterJob Tenure Shorter Broader and Higher Job/Skill Broader and Higher Job/Skill Continual Evolution of Applied SkillsContinual Evolution of Applied Skills Portability of:Portability of:

• SkillsSkills• Pensions & BenefitsPensions & Benefits• Intellectual CapitalIntellectual Capital

Education Key to Personal Security and Education Key to Personal Security and Standard of LivingStandard of Living

IMPACT OF IMPACT OF EDUCATION EDUCATION

Work or College:Work or College:

The Same!!The Same!!

Meanwhile…Education Premium Meanwhile…Education Premium GrowingGrowing

Earning Differential HS Vs BA DegreeEarning Differential HS Vs BA Degree• 19801980 50% 50%• 20062006 100%100%• 20202020 ??????

Unemployment GAP Widens..Unemployment GAP Widens..• Less Than HSLess Than HS 8.3%8.3%• HSHS 5.1%5.1%• Some CollegeSome College 4.2%4.2%• BA DegreeBA Degree 2.75%2.75%

Welfare, Crime, Health Ins, etc.Welfare, Crime, Health Ins, etc.

READY FOR COLLEGE AND READY FOR READY FOR COLLEGE AND READY FOR

WORKWORK: : Same or Different?Same or Different?

ACT Study Brings Closure to the Argument About ACT Study Brings Closure to the Argument About College vs Workforce Preparation.College vs Workforce Preparation.

• College Without RemediationCollege Without Remediation

• Sustainable Living Wage JobSustainable Living Wage Job Carpenter, Electrician, PlumbersCarpenter, Electrician, Plumbers

Rigorous Core Curriculum and High Achievement Rigorous Core Curriculum and High Achievement Standards For Standards For ALL StudentsALL Students

ACT, May 2006ACT, May 2006

EDUCATIONEDUCATION

Are We Ready?Are We Ready?

Current K-8 System…Current K-8 System…

• All Students Not Brought to StandardAll Students Not Brought to Standard

• Not Taking Rigorous CoursesNot Taking Rigorous Courses (Ill)(Ill)

35% Taking Algebra I35% Taking Algebra I ? ?23% Low Income ‘Proficient’23% Low Income ‘Proficient’ 10%10%

• 88thth Grade Achievement Grade Achievement 30% Proficient in Math30% Proficient in Math 29%*29%* 31% Proficient in Reading31% Proficient in Reading 31%*31%* 42% Proficient in Science42% Proficient in Science 27%*27%* 41% Proficient in Writing41% Proficient in Writing ? ?

**2000 and 2002**2000 and 2002

* NAEP 2005

Current K-12 System…Current K-12 System…

40% Students Unprepared for College/Wk40% Students Unprepared for College/Wk

Only 56% Take Core Curriculum (46% Ill)Only 56% Take Core Curriculum (46% Ill)

51% Reading at College Level51% Reading at College Level

ACT Test Takers Ready for College Level WorkACT Test Takers Ready for College Level Work

(Ill)(Ill) 26% Biology26% Biology 25%25% 41% Algebra41% Algebra 38%38% 68% English68% English 63%63% 51% Social Sci51% Social Sci 45%45% 21% All Fields21% All Fields 20%20%

ACTACT

Increasing Minority/Low IncomeIncreasing Minority/Low IncomeParticipation and SuccessParticipation and Success

College Entrance, Retention, and Achievement College Entrance, Retention, and Achievement Directly Correlated to:Directly Correlated to:• Core CurriculumCore Curriculum• College Readiness in all Four DisciplinesCollege Readiness in all Four Disciplines

Academic Preparation Trumps Race and IncomeAcademic Preparation Trumps Race and Income CRB All MinorityCRB All Minority

• AttendanceAttendance 79% 79% 49% 49% • RetentionRetention 85% 70%85% 70%

Illinois’s ChallengeIllinois’s Challenge 13% Drop in HS Grad Rates13% Drop in HS Grad Rates

• 75% of 975% of 9thth Grade Complete HS Grade Complete HS• Minority Less Than 50%Minority Less Than 50%

Less Than 50% Core CurriculumLess Than 50% Core Curriculum• 37% Black37% Black• 39% Hispanic39% Hispanic

Ready For College/Work?Ready For College/Work?• 65% High Income..20% Low Income65% High Income..20% Low Income• 11% Black and 17% Hispanic11% Black and 17% Hispanic

Illinois Lacks Student Tracking SystemIllinois Lacks Student Tracking System Wide Disparity in School Funding (Performance?)Wide Disparity in School Funding (Performance?) State Lowered 8State Lowered 8thth Grade Math Test Score Grade Math Test Score

Current HE System..Current HE System..

Increasing EnrollmentsIncreasing Enrollments Only 6 of 10 Graduate in 6 YearsOnly 6 of 10 Graduate in 6 Years Only 54% of Low Income Obtain DegOnly 54% of Low Income Obtain Deg 53% Remediation 53% Remediation Graduate Competency Has DroppedGraduate Competency Has Dropped 33% Decrease in Sci/Math/Eng33% Decrease in Sci/Math/Eng Popular Majors Vs Strong Liberal EducationPopular Majors Vs Strong Liberal Education Affordability DilemmaAffordability Dilemma

Higher Ed NAPE…Higher Ed NAPE…College Credentials in Question..College Credentials in Question..

19921992 20032003

Prose LiteracyProse Literacy 40%40% 31%31%

Document LiteracyDocument Literacy 37%37% 25%25%

Quantitative LiteracyQuantitative Literacy 31%31% 31%31%

Illinois HE SystemIllinois HE System11 IllinoisIllinois Top States Top States

Community College ReturnCommunity College Return 53%53% 63%63%

4 Yr College Return4 Yr College Return 79% 79% 84%84%

BA Within 6 YrsBA Within 6 Yrs 58%*58%* 64%64%

Certs & DegreesCerts & Degrees 1717 2121Per 100 StudentsPer 100 Students

Working Age AdultsWorking Age Adults 4.9%4.9% 5.4%5.4%

*Hispanics 50% Less Likely to Complete*Hispanics 50% Less Likely to CompleteNCPPHENCPPHE

Affordability and AccessAffordability and AccessIllinois’s DilemmaIllinois’s Dilemma

State Support for HE Reduced in last 25 years.State Support for HE Reduced in last 25 years.

Resulting in Shift to Increased Tuition Funding Resulting in Shift to Increased Tuition Funding

Percent of Family Income for Tuition Percent of Family Income for Tuition Out of Step with Other States.Out of Step with Other States.

IllinoisIllinois Top StatesTop States• Comm CollegeComm College 21% 21% 15%15%• Public 4 yrPublic 4 yr 30%30% 16%16%• Private 4 yrPrivate 4 yr 62%62% 32%32%

Same Time Illinois’s Per Capita Income Is DecreasingSame Time Illinois’s Per Capita Income Is Decreasing

HE Least Affordable for Those Most In Need of HE AccessHE Least Affordable for Those Most In Need of HE Access

COMMITMENT TO COMMITMENT TO

AMERICA’S FUTUREAMERICA’S FUTURE

K-8 EducationK-8 EducationChangingChanging thethe CultureCulture

Accountability for ‘All’ Students to Standard by Accountability for ‘All’ Students to Standard by 33rdrd, 6, 6thth, and 9, and 9thth Grade Grade

Remedial InvestmentsRemedial Investments

Increased Number of 8Increased Number of 8thth Graders Taking Higher Graders Taking Higher Level Math and ScienceLevel Math and Science

Principals Must Have Management Flexibility for: Principals Must Have Management Flexibility for: • Teacher AssignmentTeacher Assignment• Alternative Learning Systems Alternative Learning Systems

K-12 EDUCATIONK-12 EDUCATIONNew American High SchoolNew American High School

‘‘Core’ Curriculum for All StudentsCore’ Curriculum for All Students

‘‘All’All’ Students Brought to Standard Students Brought to Standard• Focus on Low Income, Minority, and Low AchieversFocus on Low Income, Minority, and Low Achievers

Increased Investments in Remediation and Increased Investments in Remediation and Student SupportStudent Support

Accountability and Flexibility for PrincipalsAccountability and Flexibility for Principals

Data Tracking for All Students/SchoolsData Tracking for All Students/Schools

ADULT WORKFORCEADULT WORKFORCE‘‘Employment Insurance’Employment Insurance’

Academic and Industry Recognized OutcomesAcademic and Industry Recognized Outcomes

Increased Opportunities for Working-age Adults Increased Opportunities for Working-age Adults for Post Secondary Ed and Trainingfor Post Secondary Ed and Training

Continuous Access/Financial Support for Post Continuous Access/Financial Support for Post Secondary Ed, Certificate Training, and Degrees.Secondary Ed, Certificate Training, and Degrees.

Assured Access To The Ever Changing Labor Assured Access To The Ever Changing Labor Market In A Flat WorldMarket In A Flat World

HIGHER EDUCATIONHIGHER EDUCATIONRenewedRenewed CommitmentCommitment

AccountabilityAccountability• Clearly Defined Core Curriculum and Competency Clearly Defined Core Curriculum and Competency

ExpectationsExpectations

• Assess and RemediateAssess and Remediate Students, Curriculum, and ProfessoriateStudents, Curriculum, and Professoriate

Education PipelineEducation Pipeline• K-12 Partnership AlignmentK-12 Partnership Alignment

TeachersTeachers Curriculum and AssessmentsCurriculum and Assessments

• K-16 Policy CouncilK-16 Policy Council Financing, Standards, Curriculum, and AssessmentsFinancing, Standards, Curriculum, and Assessments

HE Continued…HE Continued… AffordabilityAffordability

• Constraining Escalating College CostsConstraining Escalating College Costs Joint Venture, Partnerships, Teaching Vs ResearchJoint Venture, Partnerships, Teaching Vs Research

• Increased ‘Economic’ Investment in HEIncreased ‘Economic’ Investment in HE State, Federal, and PrivateState, Federal, and Private

• Increase Needs Based SupportIncrease Needs Based Support Increase Access To Comm College (Low Income & Minority)Increase Access To Comm College (Low Income & Minority)

Continuous ImprovementContinuous Improvement• Continual Updating of Curriculum, Standards, Continual Updating of Curriculum, Standards,

Application, and ProfessorsApplication, and Professors• Partnerships Partnerships

Business, NGO’s, Non-Profits, Education, etcBusiness, NGO’s, Non-Profits, Education, etc• New and Flexible Learning OptionsNew and Flexible Learning Options• HE Must Work to Reflect The World In Which Students HE Must Work to Reflect The World In Which Students

Will EnterWill Enter

ILLINOIS’S COMMITMENT TO ILLINOIS’S COMMITMENT TO HIGH SKILLS AND HIGH HIGH SKILLS AND HIGH

WAGES! WAGES!

Opportunities and ChallengesOpportunities and Challenges

Illinois’s Future…Illinois’s Future… Experience WorkforceExperience Workforce Flat Population GrowthFlat Population Growth Flat Labor Force GrowthFlat Labor Force Growth Loss of High Wage…Low Skill JobsLoss of High Wage…Low Skill Jobs Growing Demand of High Skill Jobs with PS Growing Demand of High Skill Jobs with PS

EducationEducation Increase Minority/Low Income PreparationIncrease Minority/Low Income Preparation Need More Affordable Access to PS EdNeed More Affordable Access to PS Ed

Economy Depends on Raising Academic Economy Depends on Raising Academic Achievement of Low Performing StudentsAchievement of Low Performing Students

Education Must Be Recognized Education Must Be Recognized As…As…

The #1 The #1 EconomicEconomic Issue For Our Future Issue For Our Future

Education No Longer Relegated..Education No Longer Relegated..

‘‘Discretionary Spending’Discretionary Spending’

‘‘One of Many Budget Priorities’One of Many Budget Priorities’

Effective Education Must Become a Right of Effective Education Must Become a Right of Every Child…Not Merely an OpportunityEvery Child…Not Merely an Opportunity

THANK YOUTHANK YOU Roberts T. JonesRoberts T. Jones Education and Workforce PolicyEducation and Workforce Policy

200 12 St. South200 12 St. SouthSuite 701Suite 701Arlington, VA 22202Arlington, VA 22202Tel: 703 416 0723Tel: 703 416 0723www.educationworkforcepolicy.comwww.educationworkforcepolicy.com

““THE JOBS REVOLUTION:THE JOBS REVOLUTION:Changing How America Works”Changing How America Works”www.jobsrevolution.comwww.jobsrevolution.com