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Global Business Trends
Imex Frankfurt - May 24th 2012
Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Research
www.fastfuture.com [email protected] Twitter @fastfuture
Contents
• Presentation p. 3
• About Fast Future p. 52
• Image Sources p. 62
Driving Future Growth
Macro
Trends
Business
Responses
Key
Behaviours
‘Future Proofed’ Organisations
Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel
4-10 Years
Creating
the Future
1-12 Months
Operational
Excellence
1-3 Years
Drive for
Growth
The World in 2022
Future Proofing the Business
Mastery Markets Models
Magic Management Mindset
Muscle
Message
Mastery
Mastery – Foresight and Insight
e.g. ‘Horizon Scanning’ and
Timeline Development by Sector
BCG’S 2011 Global Challengers
and Emeriti: Origin Countries 33
20
14
8 6
5 4
3 3 2 2
1 1 1 1 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: Boston Consulting Group, January 2011
Mastery - Service is the ‘Killer App’
New Analytics and a New Knowledge Infrastructure
Mastery – Data and Technology
Telephony • Voice
• Messaging
• SIM card
• Phonebook
• Ring Tones
• Security
Connectivity • Cellular
• Up to 14 bands
• WLAN/BT
• GPS
• NFC
• FM
Data/
Enterprise • 100Mbps
• IMS
• Browsing
• VPN
• PIM
• Ecommerce
• Payments
Software • Protocols
• Middleware
• Applications
• User Interface
• Minimize fragmentation
Multimedia • Camera 8-16M
• Camcorder
• 24M Color Display
• Memory (160GB)
• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out
• Games
(50-100M Tps)
• DRM
Convergence and Personalisation
Next Generation Interfaces
Mastery - Sustainability
Markets
Markets – Growth Poles 2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
448 691
729
5231
4157
739
1030
344
585
Source : United Nations 2010 2050
Markets - Life Redefined
Lifespans are Increasing
Under 50’s have 90%
chance of living to 100.
Aubrey de Grey suggests
we could live to 500 or 1000
What are the health,
housing, consumption and
resource implications?
What kind of opportunities
will be created?
Markets –
Focus on Growth Industries
Rising Infrastructure Spending
• CIBC projects up to $35 trillion in public works by 2030 (1)
• Annual spend:
– North America $180Bn
– Europe $205Bn
– Asia $400Bn
– Africa $10Bn
Green Buildings - $600Bn by 2015
Airport Expansion by 2020
China from ~150 to 244
India from ~100 to 150
Green Transport Revolution
Models - Multiple Streams and
Pre-emptive Solutions
Models - Continuous Innovation
E.g. Auctions
£3088 £8791.50 £81
Kickstarter.com
Models - Access vs. Ownership
Muscle
Muscle – Rapid Decision Making
Muscle – Speed of Execution
e.g. Ultra-Quick Construction
Muscle –
Locally Relevant and Connected
Embrace Networks and Associations
Message
Impact, Innovation and Ethics
Relevant Solutions - MarkaVIP
Scalable Innovation
Ethics - Being and Doing
Magic
Magic – First to Market
E.g. Next Gen Qantas Check-In
Magic – Ideas that Delight
E.g. Virtual Grocery Shopping –
Tesco South Korea
Magic – Unleash the Customer
e.g. Open Innovation
Magic – Basic Science E.g. Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Convergence
Unlocking the Value and Risk of Pure R&D, Patents and Licences
Magic -
Breakthrough
Innovation e.g.
3D Printing
$1Tn+ Market
Management
Management – Celebrate
Successes
Management -
Make Time and Space for Change
Management - Lead or Follow?
Management -
Tackling Complexity
• Customer Interface
• Process
• Organisation
• Information /
Systems
• Regulatory
• Human
Mindset
Mindset - 3 Horizon Thinking
• 12 Months
• 1-3 Years
• 4-10 Years
Mindset –
Broad Scans and Deep Dives
Mindset - Tolerant of Uncertainty
Encourage Experimentation
Mindset –
Curious, Sticky and Magnetic
Conclusions
• New Turbulent Era
• Future is a Journey
• The Door is Open
About Fast Future
Fast Future –
Core Services
• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive management and boards of governments, investment funds, development agencies , companies, airlines, airports, hotels, venues, CVB’s and associations
• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future scenarios, technologies and new markets
• Immersion - ‘Deep dives’ on future trends, market developments, emerging issues and technology advances
• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans
• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans
• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation
Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership
• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people,
trends and forces shaping the future
• Clients
– ING, ABN Amro, Laing O’Rourke
– Marks and Spencer
– Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group
– Vancouver Airport Services
– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI
– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange,
O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG,
Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING,
Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank
– Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore,
UK, US
– Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San
Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens,
Slovenia, Copenhagen
– Convention Centres – Melbourne,
Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC
– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,
– Intercontinental
– PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes
Hotels 2020 – Objectives
• Identify key drivers of change
for the globally branded hotel
sector over the next decade
• Examine the implications for:
Hotel strategy
Brand portfolio
Business models
Customer targeting
Innovation
• Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for
the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors
• Multiple outputs Nov 2009 – December 2011
• Current studies on future strategies for venues and destinations
Convention 2020
Rohit Talwar • Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on
5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10
Global Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,
ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,
OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,
Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations
and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,
Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for
leaders
• Strategic decision making framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95
• Email invoice request to
Designing Your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices
Our Services Bespoke research; Identification &
Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers &
Shocks
Accelerated Scenario
Planning, Timelining &
Future Mapping
Identification of
Opportunities for
Innovation and Strategic
Investment Strategy Creation &
Development of
Implementation
Roadmaps
Design & Facilitation of
Innovation, Incubation
& Venturing
Programmes
Expert Consultations &
Futures Think Tanks
Personal Futuring for
Leaders and Leadership
Teams
Public Speaking, In-
Company Briefings,
Seminars and
Workshops
Example Projects • Public and private client research e.g. :
– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients
– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers
– Winning in India and China
– The Future of Human Resources
– Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises
– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events
– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events
– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry
– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies
– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia
– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
Example Clients
Image Sources
Image Sources p.1 Page
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7. Left to Right
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