THE PROSPECT OF A DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

Early-dividend

Equipping adolescents and youth with the skills they need to make an effective transition from school to work.

The most urgent policy priorities:

• Political and social stability • Inclusive and equitable economic and social policies • Expanded employment opportunities

Prerequisites for realizing the window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth offered by this demographic dividend:

Window of the opportunity for accelerated economic growth is wide open

Increasing working age population & low child-dependency ratio

Pre-dividend(as of 2015) Early-dividend Late-dividend Post-dividend

Saudi Arabia MENA GENERATION 2030COUNTRY FACT SHEET

2050

Total

Adolescents

20302015

DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS

HEALTH SERVICE PROVISION

626 526 513

0 200 400 600

4.8 million 5.8 million 5.0 million

32 million39 million

45 million

Female

Male

2015 2050

Population by age and sex, 2015 and 2050

Number of total population and adolescents (10-19 years), 2015, 2030 and 2050 (in millions)

Composition of the total dependency ratio (child dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio), 1950-2100

Number of health service providers (doctors, nurses and midwives) for each scenario (in thousands)

Health service providers 2015 (Estimated using 2000-2015 trend)

Health service providers 2030 if trend maintained

Health service providers in 2030 to meet WHO Standard

Total fertility rate(children per woman)

Number of births(in thousands)

Under-five mortality rates

(deaths per1,000 live births)

2015

1990 2015

20502030

Replacement level

0−14 years65+ years

2018

2030

2050

2.6 2.1 1.8

44.4 8.4

0 1 2 3 4 5

●●

0 40 80 120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Dep

ende

ncy

ratio

0−45−9

10−1415−1920−2425−2930−3435−3940−4445−4950−5455−5960−6465−6970−7475−7980−8485−8990−9495−99100+

2 1 0 1 2Population (in millions)

312

225

0 100 200 300

Investing in children and youth today to secure a prosperous region tomorrow

1990 2000 2015 2030 2050 2060 2070 2080

If trend maintained country will meet WHO recommended level of 4.45 skilled health personnel per 1,000 inhabitants.

EDUCATION SERVICE PROVISIONIncrease in and composition of the school age population Increase in out-of-school children

SCHOOL TO WORK TRANSITIONChange in and composition of the youth labor force

Female youth labor force participation BOX 1 /

Increase in unemployed youth

By 2030, Saudi Arabia will face a 12 per cent increase in school-age population (aged 5-17), resulting in the need for approximately 1 million additional students to be accommodated in the education system.

If Saudi Arabia does not address this additional influx of children and adolescents into the education system in an adequate manner, additional 40 thousand children (aged 5-17), reflecting 7 per cent increase, may be out of school.

Realizing the full share of human capital with vast potential for economic growth, requires unlocking the potential of girls and women contributing to the labor force and productivity of the country.

Assumption: Population growth follows the trend projected by the United Nationals Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)

By 2030, Saudi Arabia will see a youth labor force (aged 15-24) of 0.8 million, a decrease of 0.4 percent compared to 2015.

Ensuring (1) the supply of qualified workforce through education systems that are adjusted to labor market requirement, and (2) the demand of the economy through creating new jobs for these new labor force entrance.

Assumption: Labor force participation rate for both, men and women, follows the trend projected by the International Labor Organization (ILO)

Assumption: Out-of-school children rate, i.e. percentage of the total school age population out of school, from 2015 remains the same until 2030.

• Scenario 1 – youth labor force participation for both men and women follows ILO projection for 2030• Scenario 2 – youth labor force participation for men as in scenario 1, while for women increase to close the gender gap by half; • Scenario 3 – youth labor force participation for men as in scenario 1, while for women increase to close the gender gap by full

If Saudi Arabia does not take advantage of the influx of youth into the labor market in an adequate manner, additional 3 thousand youth (aged 15-24), reflecting 1 per cent increase, may be unemployed.

Assumption: Youth unemployment rate, i.e. percentage of the total youth population unemployed, from 2015 remains the same until 2030.

2030

1,202

1,023

845

848

0 500 1,000 1,500

Government health expenditureBOX 2 /

A growing population requires the increase in total health expenditure to even maintain the status quo. This charts shows the resulting health expenditure per capita for 2030 and 2050 if the total expenditure would remain at the level of 2015.

Domestic general government health expenditure per capita (current US$) and total population (in millions) under assumption of constant 2015 total expenditure

Pop

ulat

ion

(in m

illio

ns)

Dom

estic

gen

eral

gov

ernm

ent

heal

th

expe

nditu

re p

er c

apita

(cur

rent

US

$)

Health expenditure per capitaTotal population

$852

$681$596

0

200

400

600

800

2015 2030 20500

10

20

30

40

50

Ensuring access to quality education opportunities, nurturing the skills required to realize the full potential as productive members of the economy and society.

- See the full report for more details, sources and additional explanations: https://www.unicef.org/mena/reports/mena-generation-2030- All population projections based on 2017 revision of World Population Prospects (United Nations Population Division). Current and future crises and refugee movements may alter these projections for single countries significantly.

Developed by UNICEF Headquarters in collaboration with the Regional Office for the Middle East and North Africa, February 2019

Quantitative/proportional change in school-age population between 2015 and 2030 (in thousands)

Quantitative/proportional change in the youth labor force between 2015 and 2030 (in thousands)

Number of youth labor force in 2015 and 2030 under different scenarios (in thousands)

Quantitative/proportional change in unemployed youth between 2015 and 2030 (in thousands)

Quantitative/proportional change in out-of-school children between 2015 and 2030 (in thousands)

Upper secondary

Lower secondary

Primary

Pre-primary

2015 2030 Change

Upper secondary

Lower secondary

Primary

Pre-primary

2015 2030 Change 2015 2030 Change

2015 2030 Change

Scenario 3

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

2015

−71

1,396 293

1,456 350

3,213 367

1,749 −4%

11%

24%

21%

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

−4

108 23

48 12

82 9

359 −1%

11%

24%

21%

0 100 200 300 400

−4848 -0.4%

0 200 400 600 800

246 3 1%

0 50 100 150 200 250

Most urgent policy priorities

Most urgent policy priorities

Most urgent policy priorities