Scaling up Support for the
Demographic Dividend in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Dar es Salaam – November 3, 2016
Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice
The World Bank Group
The importance of SRHR under
the GFF for poverty reduction
There is growing political commitment for a Demographic Dividend
• The African Union has declared 2017 the year of
“Harnessing Demographic Dividend through
Investments in the Youth”.
• Presidents, Prime Ministers and Sector Ministers
from more than 20 countries gathered at UNGA
to reinforce their political commitment to create
the conditions for a Demographic Dividend in
Sub-Saharan Africa
From global and regional knowledge to country action
From global and
regional
knowledge to
country action
In Search of the
Demographic
Dividend in
Mozambique
Population is central to development
The Opportunity: harnessing demographic change as a driver of
poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa
3.23
6.69
5.10
2.742.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
198
0-1
98
5
198
5-1
99
0
199
0-1
99
5
199
5-2
00
0
200
0-2
00
5
200
5-2
01
0
201
0-2
01
5
201
5-2
02
0
202
0-2
02
5
202
5-2
03
0
203
0-2
03
5
203
5-2
04
0
204
0-2
04
5
204
5-2
05
0
Total Fertility Rate
++
Indirect
effect of
reduced
fertility on
Human
Development
100-150
M fewer
poor
people
by 2050
++++
Successful
complimentary
social and
economic
policies
Index
1. The "mirage" of a demographic dividend in high
fertility countries
2. Policies to accelerate the fertility transition:
Empower families and the role of the GFF
3. The time for action at scale is now
Is Sub-Saharan Africa TFR is High
Source: DHS
5.25.5
5.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1997 2003 2011
Bir
ths
per
wo
man
Mozambique
Inequity in Fertility is Increasing
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Urban (TFR=4.5)
Rural (6.6)
No education (TFR=6.8)
Primary (6.1)
Secondary + (3.4)
Poorest (TFR=7.2)
Poorer (7.2)
Middle (6.3)
Richer (5.6)
Richest (3.7)
Northern (TFR=6.4)
Central (6.6)
Southern (4.3)
Mozambique ( TFR=5.9)
Pla
ce
of
resi
de
nce
Ed
uca
tio
nW
ealth Ind
ex
Reg
ion
Absolute change in TFR, 1997-2011
Source: DHS
Mozambique
East Asia 2015
1. 12.6
Few adults to sustain many dependents
Working-age population / Dependents
Working-age population / Dependents
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
90-94
Population in millions
Age
gro
up
10 5 0 5 10
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
male female
East Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
2.61.2
What is the Demographic Dividend ?
More
people in
working
age
More
workers
More
production
More
disposable
income to
save
First dividend Second dividend
Accumu-
lation of
human
and
physical
capital
Permanent
increase in
output per
capita
Total
dependency ratio
(TDR)
Time
Sub
Saharan
Africa
Window of Demographic Opportunity: a period in which the
TDR is low, and the share of working age population is high
Demographic Dividend: the socio-economic gain
arising from this specific demographic situation, if the right
policy conditions are in place
No demographic dividend without fertility transition
Korea: 1/3 of economic growth over 40 years (6.7%) attributable to Demographic Dividend
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19
55
-19
60
19
65
-19
70
19
75
-19
80
19
85
-19
90
19
95
-20
00
20
05
-20
10
20
15
-20
20
20
25
-20
30
20
35
-20
40
20
45
-20
50
20
55
-20
60
20
65
-20
70
20
75
-20
80
20
85
-20
90
20
95
-21
00 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
GNI per capita
Dependency ratio
Korea’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Total Dependency Ratio (TDR)1955-2100
Korea reaping the benefits of the DD
1990 - 2015
POLICY MEASURES1) Explicit population policy2) Shifting the education and skills development strategy 3) Comprehensive economic plans
12
3
TDRTFR
Index
1. The "mirage" of a demographic dividend in high
fertility countries
2. Policies to accelerate the fertility transition:
Empower families and the role of the GFF
3. The time for action at scale is now
Observed fertility is generally higher than
women’s desired fertility (Mozambique)4
.0
5.3 5
.7
4.9
3.4
5.6
5.6
5.3
4.6
3.6
4.9
4.6
6.6
7.6
6.2
4.3
6.3 6
.8
6.8
5.9
4.2
5.9
4.5
6.6 6.8
6.1
3.4
7.2
7.2
6.3
5.6
3.7
5.9
Urb
an
Ru
ral
No
ed
uca
tio
n
Pri
mar
y
Seco
nd
ary
or
mo
re
Po
ore
st
Po
ore
r
Mid
dle
Ric
he
r
Ric
hes
t
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Locality Education Wealth quintile
Use of contraception in SSA is low,
especially among the poorest
Early Marriage and Childbearing result in
high adolescent pregnancy rates
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
Niger
Chad
Angola
Mali
Mozambique
Uganda
Guinea
Malawi
Sierra Leone
Cameroon
Source: World Development Iindicators
Births per 1,000 women ages 15-19 (2014)
The required policy actions for pre-dividend countries resonate with the ambition of the GFF
Phase Objective Policies
Pre-Demographic Dividend Countries
Accelerate the fertility decline
• Reduce child mortality and malnutrition
• Increase female education and gender equity
• Empower women (strengthen agency, address social norms on fertility, reduce child marriage)
• Expand comprehensive family planning programs
GFFSRHR
Index
1. The "mirage" of a demographic dividend in high
fertility countries
2. Policies to accelerate the fertility transition:
Empower familiesand the role of the GFF
3. The time for action at scale is now
Regional financing complements national strategies
As partners we need now to leverage platforms to support coordinated action
The World Bank has committed US$ 205 M regional IDA grant toward the Sahel Women Empowerment and Demographic Dividend project
Cote d’Ivoire$30 M
Chad $26.7 M
Mali $40 M
Burkina Faso $34.8 M
Niger $53.5 M
Mauritania $15 M
Cameroon Health Sector Support Investment Project($100M IDA & $27M GFF TF)
• Progressive national scale-up of the Performance Based Financing (PBF) • Women, adolescents and children under 5, as well as displaced and refugee populations affected by insecurity in the region, will benefit from the interventions
SWEDD GFF FP2020
Thank you
18
62.0%
19.3%
9.2% 7.3% 5.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2012 Nodemographiceffect 2050
High Fertility2050
MediumFertility 2050
Low Fertility2050
18
15
6.6
4.83.5
b. Poverty headcount rateNumber of poor (M)
a. Real GDP per capita by fertility scenario (constant 2007 US$)
Huge potential for rapid economic growth and poverty reduction [Mozambique]
1364
1813
2080
2378
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2015 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
No demographic effects
High fertility
Medium fertility
Low fertility
19
