Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa

Some Findings from Two WBG Reports

Demographic Dividend Potential For Africa

Some Findings from Two WBG Reports

Washington, April, 2015

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

2061

2064

2067

2070

2073

2076

2079

2082

2085

2088

2091

2094

2097

2100

Population ProjectionsMedium Fertility Scenario

East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central AsiaLatin America & Caribbean Middle East & North AfricaSouth Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: adapted to World Bank regions using data from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013).

Dividend or Disaster?

Highest fertility rates in the world are associated with:

• High maternal and child mortality

• Low women’s empowerment

• Low investment in education

• High dependency ratios • Youth employment

challenges

Background papers (regional report)

1 Literature Review Demographics 12 Aging and in Africa

2 Population polices in Africa 13 Source economic growth in Africa

3 Literature Review Demographic Dividend 14 Savings in Africa

4 Social determinants in Africa 15 Model of the Economic Effects of Fertility Change

5 Proximate determinants of Africa 16 Case Study – Pakistan and Bangladesh

6 Supply Side of Family Planning 17 Case Study – Nigeria and Kenya

7The Demographic Transition and Urbanization

18 Case Study – Ethiopia and Ghana

8 The Effect of Demographic Transition on ChildHealth

19 Case Study - DRC

9 The Effect of Demographic Transition on Education

20 Case Study - Brazil

10 The Youth Bulge and Labor Markets

11 Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation

4

Africa’s rise: Twenty years of sustained economic growth have established that Africa can find its own path to

successful development.

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

Rea

l GD

P pe

r cap

ita (U

S$ a

t 200

5 pr

ices

)

Actual Trend

Source: World Development Indicators.

Mortality Trends

Fertility Trends

Heterogeneity of Fertility Rates in Africa

8

Total Fertility RatesAFRICATFR

1.59 - 2.64

3.05 - 3.59

3.85 - 4.62

4.69 - 5.50

5.74 - 6.92

Total Fertility RatesAFRICATFR

1.59 - 2.64

3.05 - 3.59

3.85 - 4.62

4.69 - 5.50

5.74 - 6.92

Different Rates of Change

How a Population Bulge is Created

Age Structure Transformation

Female Education

12*Various DHS Surveys. Macro International Inc. Calverton, Maryland

Contributions of age structure to recent changes in resources per child

Other Sectors covered by the Regional Report

• Demography and Health (children and mothers)• Family Planning• Urbanization• Female Labor Force Participation• Youth Bulge and Labor Markets• Sources of Economic Growth• Savings and Financial Institutions• Aging

Optimism, but … Reasons for Optimism:

• Child Mortality Declining Fast• Rapid enrollment in schooling for girls• Economic dynamism in Africa (potential fiscal

space)But the Dividend is not automatic and some

countries are lagging considerably on the demographic transition

Dividend Policies and Timing

I. Managing/speeding up the Demographic Transition• Child Mortality/Morbidity• Female Education• Social Norms• Family Planning

II.1st Economic Dividend: Youth Bulge to Workforce• Skills/education• Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (where from?)• Domestic saving and FDI

III.2nd Economic Dividend: Savings of the Cohort• Financial institutions/mechanisms• Savings policy (e.g. Pensions)

Second Study: Sahel DemographyStunted Demographic Transition:

• Mortality has started to decline • Fertility has not declined consistently• Implications to health and nutrition• Implications to dependency ratios (population pyramid)• Implications to poverty reduction

Three Analytical Lenses• Quantitative analysis of drivers• Qualitative analysis (focus groups and informant

interviews)• Policy mapping

Main Findings (Sahel)

While Mortality is declining, it is still too highVery high demand for children, even in urban settings

• Retirement security (concerns about child survival)• Cultural norms• Gender power relationships

Challenges in Family Planning ProgramsEducation sector limitations, especially for girlsPaper Policies

• Limited prioritization• Major implementation challenges (budgets and institutions)