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Scandpower AS P.O. Box 3,
N-2027 Kjeller, Norway
Risk management in the Scandinavian railway industry
Karl Ove Ingebrigtsen
Vice president
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
What is risk management?
“The systematic application of management policies, procedures
and practices to the tasks of communicating, establishing the context, identifying, analysing,
evaluating, treating, monitoring and reviewing risk”
RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004
• Risk management is the human activity which integrates
– recognition of risk, risk assessment– developing strategies to manage risk– mitigation of risk using managerial
resources
Why risk management
• Risk management is a guide to ensure use of knowledge, experience, understanding, common interest, contribution from all to obtain the common goal of the success…
• The success is due to the following benefits of risk management:
– fewer surprises due to identifying all unwanted events
– involvement of all parties give access to experience
– improved information for all decision making
Risk management in Scandinavia
• Motivation and foundation– The Oil & Gas experience– Authority requirements– General safety awareness – Learned by accidents
• Experience with risk management– Formal requirement in Norway since
the 90’– Applied on all railway systems
• Bad risk management in several railway projects
– Loss of production– Loss of reputation– Economical losses– Loss of assets
From Ad-hoc operations to integrated risk management
Ad-hoc• Occasional focus on
different mishaps• Treat symptoms
as they occurs• Less lessons learned
from operationalexperience
Reactive• Identifies causes
to mishaps• Corrections made
on experiencedproblems
Proactive• Proactive strategy
for risk management
• Extensive riskanalysis of theoperation
• Judge riskaccording tostrategies and targets
integrated in the business managementprocesses in the company
Comprehensive andintegrated
• risk management
• Establishment of risk-indicators incritical processesof the operation
• Continuos surveillanceand risk managementfor changes and improvementin the organisation
Risk management requirements
• The specification and demonstration of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (EN-50126 RAMS)
• Risk Management AS/NZS 4360 • E&P Forum, Guidelines for the
Development and Application of Health, Safety and Environmental Management Systems.
• SAMRAIL• EN 50128 Software• EN 50129 System safety• EN 50159 Communication
Railway System
Signaling system
Sub-system
Component
EN 50128(Software)
EN 50129(System safety)
EN 50126(RAMS)
EN 50159(Communication)
Concept (1)
System definition &application Conditions (2)
Risk Analysis (3)
System requirement (4)
Apportionment of system requirements (5)
Design andimplementation (6)
Manufacture (7)
Installation (8)
System Validation(Including safety acceptance
and commissioning) (9)
System Acceptance (10)
Operation and maintenance (11)
De-commissioning and disposal (14)
Modificationand retro-fit (13)
PerformanceMonitoring (12)
The risk management modelsThe RAMS standard
The risk management modelsE&P model
implementation and monitoring
planning
evaluation and risk analysis
organisation, resources and documentation
policy and strategic objectives
a u d i t
leadership and
commitment
review
The main model applied
CO
MM
UN
ICA
TE
AN
D C
ON
SU
LT
MO
NIT
OR
AN
D R
EV
IEW
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
IDENTIFY RISKS
ANALYSE RISKS
EVALUATE RISKS
TREAT RISKS
RIS
K A
SS
ES
SM
EN
T
• InternalManagementTrain operation controlMarked departmentInternal bodies, safety officePlanning departmentEngineerConductor
• ExternalhandicappedLabour unionAuthoritiesMaintainersPressTravellers
COMMUNICATION AND COOPERATION WITH ALL INVOLVED PARTIES
Belated wisdom is not allowed
CO
MM
UN
ICA
TE
AN
D C
ON
SU
LT
MO
NIT
OR
AN
D R
EV
IEW
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Determine Determineconsequences likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
TREAT RISKS
· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Yes
EVALUATE RISKS
· Compare against criteria· Set priorities
NoTreatRisks
IDENTIFY RISKS
· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?
Establish the contextC
OM
MU
NIC
AT
E A
ND
CO
NS
ULT
MO
NIT
OR
AN
D R
EV
IEW
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Determine Determineconsequences likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
TREAT RISKS
· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Yes
EVALUATE RISKS
· Compare against criteria· Set priorities
NoTreatRisks
IDENTIFY RISKS
· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?
CO
MM
UN
ICA
TE
AN
D C
ON
SU
LT
MO
NIT
OR
AN
D R
EV
IEW
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Determine Determineconsequences likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
TREAT RISKS
· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Yes
EVALUATE RISKS
· Compare against criteria· Set priorities
NoTreatRisks
IDENTIFY RISKS
· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?
Identification of risk by identification of barriers
Reduce the probability of failure
Reduce the consequence
of failure
Technical or operational failure/fault
Loss of critical
function
Accident
Reduce loss
Consequence 1
Consequence 2
Analysis of safety barriers
Design
Maintenance procedures
Operational procedures
Barriers:
Event
Consequence 1
Consequence 2Consequence 3
Consequence 4
Cause 1
Cause 2Cause 3
Cause 4
Cause
Accident
Fault tree analysis Event tree analysis
Barriers
Risk analysis and evaluation – the strength of the barriers
• Physical barrier
• Functional barrier
• Symbolic barrier
• Immaterially barrier
Physical / Technical barrier
CO
MM
UN
ICA
TE
AN
D C
ON
SU
LT
MO
NIT
OR
AN
D R
EV
IEW
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Determine Determineconsequences likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
TREAT RISKS
· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Yes
EVALUATE RISKS
· Compare against criteria· Set priorities
NoTreatRisks
IDENTIFY RISKS
· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?
Severity Levels of Hazard Consequence
CatastrophicCriticalMarginalInsignificant
Several independent physical barriers
One physical and one or several organizational barriers
Several independent organizational barrier
One organizational barrier
No barriers presentF
requ
enc
y of o
ccurren
ce of a h
azardo
us even
t
Severity Levels of Hazard Consequence
CatastrophicCriticalMarginalInsignificant
Several independent physical barriers
One physical and one or several organizational barriers
Several independent organizational barrier
One organizational barrier
No barriers presentF
requ
enc
y of o
ccurren
ce of a h
azardo
us even
t
CO
MM
UN
ICA
TE
AN
D C
ON
SU
LT
MO
NIT
OR
AN
D R
EV
IEW
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Determine Determineconsequences likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
TREAT RISKS
· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Yes
EVALUATE RISKS
· Compare against criteria· Set priorities
NoTreatRisks
IDENTIFY RISKS
· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?
The results and follow up
HAZARD log (Database / Excel)• Railway system• Hazard• Risk reduction• Influence on RAMS• Reference document for treating
risk• Responsible for closing action• Verification of closing action
Monitoring and review
Client
Notice
Preparation Opening meeting
Collecting facts Closing meeting
Preparing reportFollow-up
CO
MM
UN
ICA
TE
AN
D C
ON
SU
LT
MO
NIT
OR
AN
D R
EV
IEW
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
· The internal Context· The external Context· The Risk Management Context· Develop Criteria· Define the Structure
ANALYSE RISKS
Identify exsisting controls
Determine Determineconsequences likelihood
Determine Level of Risk
TREAT RISKS
· Identify options· Assess options· Prepare and implement treatment plans· Analyse and evaluate residual risk
Yes
EVALUATE RISKS
· Compare against criteria· Set priorities
NoTreatRisks
IDENTIFY RISKS
· What can happen?· When and where?· How and why?
The helpful toolsConcept (1)
System definition &application Conditions (2)
Risk Analysis (3)
System requirement (4)
Apportionment of system requirements (5)
Design andimplementation (6)
Manufacture (7)
Installation (8)
System Validation(Including safety acceptance
and commissioning) (9)
System Acceptance (10)
Operation and maintenance (11)
De-commissioning and disposal (14)
Modificationand retro-fit (13)
PerformanceMonitoring (12)
implementation and monitoring
planning
evaluation and risk analysis
organisation, resources and documentation
policy and strategic objectives
a u d i t
leadership and
commitment
review
COM
MU
NICA
TE A
ND C
ON
SULT
MO
NITO
R A
ND R
EVIE
W
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
IDENTIFY RISKS
ANALYSE RISKS
EVALUATE RISKS
TREAT RISKS
RISK
ASS
ESSM
ENT