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Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD District Housing Activity Report 4Q 2015 Solutions Through Demographics
Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD
District Housing
Activity Report 4Q 2015
Solutions Through Demographics
2
GREATER SAN ANTONIO NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION STARTS,
CLOSINGS, & LOT DELIVERIESYear-Over-Year Change
Annual Starts -1.2%
Annual Closings +9.4%
Annual Starts: 10,038
Annual Closings: 9,660
Start = Foundation started
Closing = Occupied home
Greater San Antonio homebuilders started more than 10,000 new homes for the second consecutive
year in 2015 (10,038 total starts; -1.2% year-over-year)
Builders focus on completing homes already under construction in 2nd half of 2015 – 9,660 total new
homes closed in 2015 (+9.4% vs. 2014)
Region’s new home activity remains at the highest level since mid-2008
Developers deliver 10,126 new lots in 2015 (highest annual total in 7 years)
-500,000
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 15
Annual Texas Employment Growth
TEXAS ECONOMY Texas Employment GrowthJob growth
Dec, 2014 – Dec, 2015
United States
– +2.707 million +1.91%
Texas
– +175,700 +1.49%
# of Jobs Created in Past 4 Years
– San Antonio +119,100 (9.5% of TX)
Annual Job Growth in Major
Texas Markets (2015)
– DFW +98,900
– Austin +34,900
– San Antonio +33,600
– Houston +23,200
Source: TWC – CES (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
12/2014 - 12/2015+175,700 net new jobs
+1.5% growth rate11,931,100 employed
3
4
GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL JOB GROWTH(8 county MSA: Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendell, Medina, Wilson counties)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission Current Employment Survey (CES)
Annual Growth
Dec. ‘15 = +33,600 (+3.7%)
Unemployment Rates – December 2015
San Antonio: 3.5%
Austin: 3.1%, DFW: 3.7%, Houston: 4.6%
Texas: 4.2%, US: 4.8%
5
GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL CHANGE IN
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
December, 2015Annual
Change% Change
Mining and Logging -700 -8.2%
Construction 5,300 +11.2%
Manufacturing 500 +1.1%
Trade, Transp, Util 3,100 +1.8%
Information 500 +2.3%
Financial Activities 4,300 +5.2%
Prof & Bus Services 7,700 +6.2%
Edu. & Hlth Serv. 6,000 +4.0%
Leisure & Hospitality 4,700 +4.1%
Other Services 700 +2.0%
Government 1,500 +0.9%
Source: TWC
6
S.C.U.C. ISD QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
Builders start 249 and close 161 new homes in the district during the 4th quarter
Most 4th quarter starts in more than 8 years
4Q15 closings similar to 2014 total
Starts 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1Q 355 201 181 168 156 151 173 158 170 1Q 330 306 225 260 178 150 154 119 149
2Q 277 212 264 259 211 197 198 195 231 2Q 333 246 212 238 208 139 181 179 176
3Q 298 197 249 214 184 174 215 184 286 3Q 326 232 271 225 231 183 177 163 224
4Q 223 211 217 178 151 159 136 165 249 4Q 234 211 188 189 178 178 170 163 161
Total 1,153 821 911 819 702 681 722 702 936 Total 1,223 995 896 912 795 650 682 624 710
7
S.C.U.C. ISD ANNUAL NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
Annual Starts: 936
Annual Closings: 710
Year-Over-Year Change
Annual Starts +33%
Annual Closings +14%
District’s annual start rate surges over 900 in 2015 (936 total starts; +33% vs. 2014)
Highest rate since Spring 2008
710 new homes closed in 2015 (+14% year-over-year; highest rate since 1Q 2012)
Developers deliver 1,041 new lots in 2015
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
Rank District
Total Starts
2015
Total Closings
2015
1 Northside 3,245 3,099
2 Comal 1,635 1,552
3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 936 710
4 Boerne 653 688
5 Judson 674 624
6 New Braunfels 555 562
7 East Central 450 549
8 North East 543 500
9 Medina Valley 458 406
10 Southwest 361 398
11 San Marcos Con. 125 108
12 Harlandale 45 91
13 Southside 79 90
14 Seguin 125 84
15 Navarro 79 81
16 South San Antonio 59 67
17 San Antonio 56 58
18 Bandera 19 46
19 Marion 36 36
8
GREATER SAN ANTONIO SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS
BY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
• In 2015, SCUC ISD
ranked 3rd in total
new home activity
among all Greater
San Antonio school
districts
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
9
S.C.U.C. ISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION BY CITY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Cibolo Schertz Selma Converse St. Hedwig
418
315
134
69
0
331
217
9765
0
Starts
Closings
2015 Closings: 47% Cibolo, 31% Schertz, 14% Selma, 8% Converse
Starts in Schertz and Selma increased in 2015; Schertz surpassed 300 units
for the first time in four years
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
10
HISTORICAL NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY CITY
2,360 total new homes
started and 2,016
closed in the district
over the past three
years
54% of new homes were
built in the City of
Cibolo (1,183 starts and
1,065 closings)
Annual start rate in
Schertz increases 69% in
2015
Starts in Selma climb
72% in 2015
Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home
1. Kensington Ranch (All) 105 Paschal/Schertz Wilder Schertz/Selma 2017
2. Turning Stone (All) 89 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2019
3. MacArthur Park 65 Rose Garden Jordan Converse 2016
4. Willow Grove (All) 56 Rose Garden Wilder Schertz 2019
5. Cibolo Valley Ranch 47 Wiederstein Jordan Cibolo 2016
6. Cibolo Vista (All) 46 Cibolo Valley Jordan Cibolo 2018
7. Riata Terrace 45 Sippel Schlather Schertz 2020
8. Landmark Pointe 37 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2022
9. Saddle Creek Ranch 31 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2024
10. Buffalo Crossing 28 Wiederstein Jordan Cibolo 2017
11. Heights of Cibolo 27 Cibolo Valley Schlather Cibolo 2021
12. Fairway Ridge 25 Sippel Schlather Schertz 2018
11
S.C.U.C. ISD TOP PRODUCING NEW HOME SUBDIVISIONS
Annual
Closings
2015
Elementary
Attendance
Zone
2 of the top 4 producers of new homes are in the Rose Garden ES zone
4 of the top 10 producers are in the Cibolo Valley ES zone
3 of the top 5 will build-out by the end of 2017
Up and coming new subdivisions: Rhine Valley (61 starts/Watts), Saratoga (65
starts/Green Valley), The Crossvine (58 starts/Rose Garden)
Intermediate
Attendance
ZoneCity
Projected
Build-out
12
NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY ELEMENTARY ZONE
• 33% of new homes occupied in 2015 were located in the Cibolo Valley ES zone
• Paschal, Schertz, and Rose Garden zones (combined) produced 39% of new home
occupancies over the past year
13
NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY INTERMEDIATE ZONE
In 2015, 40% of the district’s new home construction occurred in the Schlather zone
Annual starts in the Wilder zone approaching 300 homes
14
NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY
JUNIOR HIGH/HIGH SCHOOL ZONE
Dobie/Steele zone sees 57% of district’s annual closings
Starts becoming more balanced between JH/HS attendance zones
15
DISTRICT MEDIAN NEW HOME PRICE
75% of new homes are being
built in neighborhoods priced
between $201K and $300K
In 2015, the district’s median
new home price was $255,784
(+1.6% vs. 2014)
Greater San Antonio median
new home price = $254,089
(+7.6% vs. 2014)
Median New Home Price by City
Cibolo = $261,481
Schertz = $275,630
Selma = $176,061
Converse = $225,145
16
SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD
NEW RESIDENTIAL LOTS DELIVERIES
317 new lots delivered in 4Q 2015
1,531 vacant developed lots on the ground (19.6 month supply)
Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City
Saratoga 4,11 65 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Mesa at Turning Stone
3, 5 81 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Cypress Point
3 83 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz
MistyWoods
1 39 Paschal/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz
Rhine Valley 3A 49 Watts/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz
17
SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD
RESIDENTIAL LOTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT
809 future lots under development as of December 2015
Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City
Saratoga 3 24 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Heights of Cibolo 5 67 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Mesa at Turning Stone
6 22 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Saddle Creek Ranch 6 80 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Landmark Pointe 3 50 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Foxbrook 1 52 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo
Riata Terrace 5C 45 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz
The Crossvine 1-2, 1-4 262 Rose Garden/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz
Wynter Hill 1 56 Paschal/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz
Rhine Valley 4 83 Watts/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz
Trails of Kensington Ranch
2-8 68 Schertz/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Selma
295 lots are in Cibolo
446 lots are in Schertz
18
RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY ELEM. ZONE 4Q15
ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS
2015
DEVELOPED LOTS
REMAINING TO BE
OCCUPIED
PLANNED
FUTURE
SINGLE FAMILY LOTS
PLANNED FUTURE
APARTMENT UNITS
CIBOLO VALLEY 310 732 650 0
GREEN VALLEY 89 345 314 0
PASCHAL 28 64 56 0
ROSE GARDEN 185 395 2,219 0
SCHERTZ 119 112 298 0
SIPPEL 102 325 1,742 0
WATTS 61 155 285 0
WIEDERSTEIN 42 42 1,473 0
TOTAL 936 2,170 7,037 0*
*Note that the district has the potential to see several future apartment complexes (details to come in 1Q16)
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S.C.U.C ISD RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY IS, JH, AND HS ZONE
ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS2015
DEVELOPED LOTSREMAINING TO BE
OCCUPIED
PLANNEDFUTURE
SINGLE FAMILY LOTS
PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT
UNITS
JORDAN 214 373 3,692 0
SCHLATHER 437 1,176 2,621 0
WILDER 285 621 724 0
TOTAL 936 2,170 7,037 0
ATTENDANCE ZONE ANNUAL STARTS2015
DEVELOPED LOTSREMAINING TO BE
OCCUPIED
PLANNEDFUTURE
SINGLE FAMILY LOTS
PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENT
UNITS
CORBETT/CLEMENS 416 849 3,706 0
DOBIE/STEELE 520 1,321 3,331 0
TOTAL 936 2,170 7,037 0
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AERIAL PHOTOS
JANUARY 18, 2015
21
KENSINGTON RANCH
Schertz ES
Paschal ES
Green Valley ES
22
MISTY WOODS / WYNTER HILL
23
WILLOW GROVE
Corbett JH
24
RHINE VALLEY
Corbett JH
25
THE CROSSVINE
26
KOEHLER-VEAZY TRACT
Steele HS
Potential Residential(Gilbert Tract)
Koehler-Veazy Tract
Proposed Silverfin
Apts
Buffalo Crossing
Cibolo Valley Ranch
Town Creek Village
Gatewood
27
SADDLE CREEK RANCH / HEIGHTS OF CIBOLO
Cibolo Valley ES
28
LANDMARK POINTE / MESA AT TURNING STONEFM 1103
29
MESA AT TURNING STONE / FOXBROOK
Cibolo Valley ES
Foxbrook
30
SARATOGA
Schlather IS
Green Valley ES
31
RIATA TERRACE Sippel ES
Old Wiederstein Rd.
SCUC ISD
Comal ISD
Proposed Fairlawn
Apts
32
FAIRWAY RIDGE
Sippel ES
33
CYPRESS POINT
SCUC ISD
Comal ISD
34
S.C.U.C. ISD PRE-OWNED HOME SALES
• 326 existing home sales
in the 4th quarter
• 1,513 total resales in
2015 21% increase over 2014
Highest annual total in
more than 10 years
• District’s average resale
price climbs to a record
high in 2015 at $210,428 +5.9% vs. 2014
Source: SABORSF Sales Only
35
DISTRICT NEW HOME OCCUPANCY FORECAST
SCUC ISD poised to see an average of 790 new home occupancies per year
over the next 5 years
Annual Period = 4Q-3Q
36
STUDENT YIELDS ANALYSIS (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES)
District is averaging
0.78 students per
new home
occupancy
FM 1103 Corridor
subdivisions
producing a higher
yield than FM 1518
Corridor subdivisions
0.9 avg. for FM 1103
0.6 avg. for FM 1518
*Results based on Fall 2015 geocoding and Sept. 30th, 2015 occupied
homes count
Subdivision NameOccupied
Homes
Total
Students
Students
Per HH
Elementary
Zone
Intermediate
ZoneJH Zone HS Zone
Elem Per
HHIS Per HH JH Per HH HS Per HH
Cibolo Vistas/Estates 213 207 0.97 Cibolo Valley Jordan Dobie Steele 0.34 0.11 0.15 0.37
Gatewood 366 353 0.96 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.37 0.16 0.16 0.28
Heights of Cibolo 240 227 0.95 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.38 0.13 0.15 0.28
Landmark Pointe 50 57 1.14 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.36 0.16 0.18 0.44
Mesa at Turning Stone 36 34 0.94 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.25 0.17 0.19 0.33
Saddle Creek Ranch 399 389 0.97 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.33 0.19 0.16 0.30
Stonebrook 140 135 0.96 Cibolo Valley Jordan Dobie Steele 0.48 0.09 0.11 0.29
Turning Stone 271 213 0.79 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.29 0.13 0.14 0.23
Charleston Parke 208 138 0.66 Green Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.23 0.09 0.11 0.24
Live Oak Hills 181 91 0.50 Green Valley Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.18 0.12 0.07 0.14
Saratoga 7 10 1.43 Green Valley Schlather Dobie Steele 0.14 0.29 0.29 0.71
Kensington Ranch Estates 172 91 0.53 Paschal Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.22 0.07 0.08 0.16
Mesa Oaks/Reserve at Mesa Oaks 177 87 0.49 Paschal Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.16 0.11 0.07 0.15
MacArthur Park 345 281 0.81 Rose Garden Jordan Corbett Clemens 0.36 0.15 0.09 0.21
Schertz Forest 47 27 0.57 Rose Garden Jordan Corbett Clemens 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.21
Sedona 169 111 0.66 Rose Garden Jordan Corbett Clemens 0.24 0.12 0.09 0.21
The Crossvine 14 12 0.86 Rose Garden Jordan Corbett Clemens 0.50 0.07 0.14 0.14
Willow Grove/Estates 125 64 0.51 Rose Garden Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.15 0.06 0.10 0.21
Estates at Wilson Preserve 62 41 0.66 Schertz Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.15 0.11 0.23 0.18
Kensington Ranch - Trails/Reserve 529 298 0.56 Schertz Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.24 0.08 0.07 0.16
Kramer Farm 306 173 0.57 Schertz Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.20 0.07 0.08 0.22
Fairway Ridge 178 117 0.66 Sippel Schlather Dobie Steele 0.20 0.11 0.15 0.20
Riata Terrace 361 320 0.89 Sippel Schlather Dobie Steele 0.38 0.16 0.14 0.21
Rhine Valley 13 7 0.54 Watts Wilder Corbett Clemens 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.15
Buffalo Crossing 469 341 0.73 Wiederstein Jordan Dobie Steele 0.26 0.10 0.10 0.27
Cibolo Valley Ranch 771 581 0.75 Wiederstein Jordan Dobie Steele 0.25 0.10 0.14 0.27
Town Creek Village 121 116 0.96 Wiederstein Jordan Dobie Steele 0.35 0.11 0.15 0.36
Average
Totals 5,970 4,521 0.28 0.12 0.13 0.26
Average 0.78
Apartment Complex CityOccupied
Units
Total
Students
Students
Per Unit
Elem Per
UnitIS Per Unit JH Per Unit HS Per Unit
Legacy Oaks Schertz 251 45 0.18 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.04
Sycamore Creek Schertz 188 74 0.39 0.11 0.07 0.06 0.15
Val Verde Schertz 68 28 0.41 0.16 0.07 0.06 0.12
Waterford Ridge Schertz 283 131 0.46 0.16 0.06 0.05 0.19
Retreat at Chelsea Park Selma 266 51 0.19 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.05
Falcon Ridge Universal City 82 12 0.15 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.01
Gold Talon Universal City 112 21 0.19 0.11 0.04 0.00 0.04
Pebble Beach Village Universal City 60 19 0.32 0.18 0.02 0.00 0.12
Villa Mesa Universal City 60 22 0.37 0.17 0.08 0.05 0.07
Totals/Averages 1,369 403 0.30 0.13 0.05 0.03 0.09
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STUDENT YIELDS MULTI-FAMILY ANALYSIS
S.C.U.C. ISD continues to see an average of 0.3 students
per multi-family unit
Fall 2015 = 0.30
Fall 2014 = 0.28
38
DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST (FALL 2016- FALL 2025) Moderate:
3.5%-4.5%
avg. annual
growth over
the next 5
years before
leveling off
near 2-3%
Low:
3.3% Avg.
Annual
Growth
Projected Net Student Growth
3 Yrs: 1,9045 Yrs: 3,14410 Yrs: 5,337
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Copyright 2016 School District Strategies.
Disclaimer - Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources in a manner that
SDS believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and such information may be incomplete, condensed or interpolated. Information
presented in this report represents our estimates as of the date of the publication and is subject to change without notice. This report is not
intended as a recommendation or endorsement for any action taken by others. In no event will School District Strategies be liable for direct,
indirect, incidental or consequential lost profits, lost savings, damages or other liabilities resulting from any information provided herein.
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