Introduction•The following slide show illustrates a science fair type of poster (tri-fold) I displayed at Weatherford Christian School’s science fair, held 1/14/05. Neither poster nor slide show include all the formal elements of the scientific method, such as a hypothesis.

•The results, derived from historical climatic data for Texas, have questionable scientific validity since I used data from only one year (1895) as a standard against which to compare 20th century yearly and average data.

•The primary purpose of this poster project was to make students and teachers aware of the potential for new and fascinating areas of research available by mining historical data on the www.

Jeffrey Bledsoe, 1/14/05

Why Are Texans Drinking More Iced Tea

Than Ever?

Background/Research

Scientists point out that:

•Arctic glaciers are melting faster•Animals are migrating northward•Plants are flowering earlier•Weather has been ‘unusual’

Scientists disagree about:

•The causes of warming •Long-term impacts on environment•Urgency of the problem•How to solve the problem

The infamous “hockey stick” curve:

The infamous “hockey stick” curve:

•Covers 1,800 yrs. in Northern Hemisphere•Published in Nature by Mann, et. al.•Shows major changes since 1902•Became a political poster

The infamous “hockey stick” curve:

•Questioned by scientists in 2004•Canadians McIntyre, McKitrick(M&M)•MIT Technology Review: Richard Muller

•Improper data anlaysis?•Nature:

•Refereed M&M’s paper•Refused to publish•Paper too technical !?!

Acquiring Trends: 20th Century

Texas Climate

Ten Texas Divisions are Defined by National Climate

Data Center :

Data obtained from National Climate Data Center Website:

•http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html

•Average Monthly Temperature for each Division from 1895 thru 2003

•Monthly Average of Precipitation Totals for each Division from 1895 thru 2003

Data Manipulation and Analysis:•Imported data into Excel•Used 1895 data as baseline to compare with other years•Subtract 1895 data from each year’s data

•Monthly comparisons (e.g., Dec. 1895 compared to other Dec’s)•Positive results indicate increase over 1895 levels•Negative results indicate decrease from 1895 levels

•Used Excel 6th order polynomial trendlines to show Division trends

Trends for Temperature and Precipitation Over 1895 Levels, for

all Texas Divisions(10 charts follow)

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 1 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://w ww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4

-0.20.00.20.40.6

0.81.01.21.4

1.61.82.02.22.4

2.62.83.0

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp1-1895 Prec1-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 1

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 2 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://ww w.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4

-0.20.00.20.40.6

0.81.01.21.4

1.61.82.02.22.4

2.62.83.0

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp2-1895 Prec2-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 2

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 3 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://www .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6

-0.4-0.20.0

0.20.40.6

0.81.01.21.4

1.61.82.0

2.22.42.6

2.83.0

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp3-1895 Prec3-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 3

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 4 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://w ww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp4-1895 Prec4-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 4

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 5 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://w ww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp5-1895 Prec5-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 5

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 6 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://w ww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp6-1895 Prec6-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 6

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 7 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://w ww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp7-1895 Prec7-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 7

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 8 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://www .ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp8-1895 Prec8-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 8

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 9 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp9-1895 Prec9-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 9

Temperature and Precipitation Trends, Compared to 1895, in Texas Division 10 for the period 1896 - 2003 (6th order polynomial trendlines. Raw data from http://w w w.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

Date

Tem

p (d

eg F

) and

Pre

cipi

tatio

n (in

ches

H

2O)

Temp10-1895 Prec10-1895 Temperature Increase Over 1895 Precipitation Increase Over 1895 *Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Texas Division 10

1896-2003 Data Averages(3 charts follow)

Temperature, Texas Divisions 1-10Average of 1896-2003 Temperature Deltas Above 1895 Temperatures

(Raw data from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Div1 Div2 Div3 Div4 Div5 Div6 Div7 Div8 Div9 Div10

Texas Divison

Tem

p, d

eg F

Average of 1896-2003 Precipitation Deltas Above 1895 Precipitation*(Raw data from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

Div1 Prec Div2 Prec Div3 Prec Div4 Prec Div5 Prec Div6 Prec Div7 Prec Div8 Prec Div9 Prec Div10 Prec

Texas Divison

Prec

ipita

tion,

inch

es H

2O

*Negative Values Indicate Low er Than 1895 Levels

Precipitation, Texas Divisions 1-10

Comparison of 1896-2003 Texas Averages for Precipitation and Temperature Above 1895 Levels

(Raw data from http://w ww.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onlineprod/drought/xmgrg3.html)

0.000

0.200

0.400

0.600

0.800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Texas Divisions

Deg

rees

F

-0.500

-0.400

-0.300

-0.200

-0.100

0.000

0.100

0.200

Inch

es H

2O

Temp Precip*Negative Values Indicate Lower Than 1895 Levels

Temp & Precip, Texas Divisions 1-10

Conclusions•Region 3 (Parker County and DFW) has among highest average temperature increase since 1895.•Region 3 has the greatest average reduction in precipitation since 1895.•Asking scientific questions and finding the answers from online databases is, I believe, a viable alternative for science fair projects. After all, lots of scientists are making careers doing just that.•The raw data and my manipulations of that data are available to anyone who would like to pursue further studies. For example, a student might want to find data on amphibian populations in regions of Texas for the last 100 years and graph that data alongside temperature and precipitation data. •Otherwise, a student might want to just look at other aspects of this data by doing statistical analyses plus a lot more climate data can be found on the www.

Biblical ApplicationAsk and it will be given to you; seek and you will find. MATT 7:7 NKJV

Acknowledgements•Thanks to Forrest Mims at SAS (www.sas.org) for his encouragement in this project. •Thanks to Dr. John Nielson-Gammon of Texas A&M for returning my phone call right before Christmas ‘04 and directing me to the required data resources at the National Climate Data Center website.

Epilogue (not included in the poster)

• Precipitation deltas could be misleading– Most people think of precipitation in terms of yearly totals– Precipitation data presented herein is based on monthly totals

• Data was described as monthly total precipitation levels (averaged across each TX Division)but

• Excel charts didn’t say precipitation deltas are on monthly basis

• Yearly totals compared to 1895’s total precipitation should result in quite different graphs

• Perhaps one of WCS’s students would like to address this or other Texas climate trend questions.

Jeffrey Bledsoe, 1/19/05