Date post: | 29-Oct-2014 |
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Marketing |
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Scientific Attribution: Maximizing Digital ROI
Dave MundoVP, Analytics Director
@davemundo
BKV is a full service agency helping clients since 1981
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BKV offers a full suite ofAnalytics solutions
Marketing Mix Analysis
Predictive Modeling
Advanced Analytics Reports
Loyalty Analytics
Scientific Attribution
Scientific Attribution Agenda
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What is Digital
Attribution?
Scientific Digital
AttributionDoes it work? Getting
started
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What is Digital
Attribution?
Scientific Digital
AttributionDoes it work? Getting
started
• Defining attribution
• Traditional attribution models
• What are marketers using?
Continued growth in digital marketing spend is spurring interest in ROI measurement
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$32
$40
$47 $53
$58 $62
U.S Online Ad Spend (in billions)*
6 *Source: eMarketer, Jan 2012
----------------------------Estimated ----------------------------
Diversification of channels is a major trend in digital marketing
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Search Banner Ads Classifieds/DirectoriesVideo Rich Media Other
U.S Online Ad Spend by Channel (in billions)
----------------Estimated ----------------
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Online
Banner Ad
TV Ad
Online Search Personal
Recommenda
tion
Coupon!Local Liquor
Store Guy
Website
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Conversion
Social Media Ad
Non-Brand
Keyword
Search
Network Banner
Brand Keyword Search
Email Ad
Attribution assigns credit for conversions
AffiliateLays foundation for digital media
ROI measurement
Optimizes
Budget
Increases ROI
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Current approaches to attribution rely on the marketer to assign credit
Shared Credit Attribution
Last - Click Attribution
First - Click Attribution
Recency - Based Attribution
100% credit
100% credit
25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit
10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit
Poll: Which attribution method do you use?
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First/Last ClickShared CreditRecency-BasedAlgorithmic/ScientificOtherNone
Most digital marketers are using “traditional” attribution – or no attribution at all!
12 *Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau – Digital Attribution Comes of Age
IAB Poll*: which attribution method do you use?
Other
Algorithmic / Scientific
Recency-Based
Shared Credit
First or Last Click
None
1%
11%
17%
17%
30%
44%
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What is Digital
Attribution?
Scientific Digital
AttributionDoes it work? Getting
started
• Why do we need it?
• How does it work?
• How is it implemented?
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Current methods assign credit in a biased and arbitrary way
Shared Credit Attribution
Last - Click Attribution
First - Click Attribution
Recency - Based Attribution
100% credit
100% credit
25% credit 25% credit 25% credit 25% credit
10% credit 20% credit 30% credit 40% credit
Ignores Everything After First Click
Everything Is Ignored Except Last Click
Constant Weights Used Throughout
Subjective, for those with “Last Click Separation Anxiety”
DisplayDisplay
Our understanding of channel-level performance is distorted by current attribution
Conversion
Search
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Display Media
• Primarily an assist media
• Generates very few clicks
Paid Search
• Primarily a converter
• Generates many clicks
Advanced attribution approaches need to address limitations of traditional methods
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Traditional Advanced Solution
Uses incomplete view
& click data
Utilize all available data
Ad Server data logs
Requires marketer
bias
Rely on data to drive results
Statistical Analysis
Easy to implement
Maintain implementation
ease
Integrate findings with media buying
Recent advances are enabling data-driven attribution for advertisers and agencies
Data-Driven
Attribution Vendors
Demand for more precise online ad spend ROI
Availability of granular data
Advanced modeling techniques
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Independent studies confirm the rising tide of attribution modeling
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“Since 2009…the market has gained momentum”
“Algorithmic attribution [is] helping value marketing efforts, identify and eliminate waste, and optimize media plans…to boost ROI”
Forrester Wave: Interactive Attribution Vendors
“Last click still survives but we see accelerating momentum to cast it aside and implement interactive attribution”
“Benefits for digital marketers include […] improved multichannel measurement, data-driven spending and strategy decisions, and media buying leverage”
“44% of interactive marketers don’t have processes in place to assign credit to their efforts, indicating that adoption of attribution has room to grow”
IAB: Digital Attribution Comes Of Age
Scientific Attribution delivers on the promise of full funnel measurement
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Purchase
DisplayEmail
Purchase
SearchDisplay
Purchase
Social
Rich Media
Search Display Search
Account for all touch points when assigning purchase credit
A scientific approach to attribution: important factors
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• Digital agencies manage millions in online ad spend each year
• Understand the challenges of online media optimization
Advertising expertise
• Build custom models to understand true value of media channels
Customized statistical approach
• No prior assumptions are made• Results reflect the impact of each
channel on purchases
Unbiased results
A statistical model unearths relationships between a set of factors and a response
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User Search
B No
C Yes
D No
Purchase?
No
Yes
No
Display
No
No
A Yes YesYes
E Yes YesYes
Moderate Predictor
Strong Predictor
Yes
Scientific Attribution also incorporates non-media factors that play a role in purchase behavior
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Media channels
Landing page
Industry changes
Geo-graphy
Time of day/
Day of week
Competi-tion
Season-ality
Understanding (and potentially controlling) non-media factors helps boost optimization
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• Determine which landing pages drive conversions
• Optimize and test based on results
Landing Page
• Key understanding of advertiser’s business• Develop a seasonally-adjusted media strategy
Seasonal Effects
• Discover which states respond to different channels/messages
• Increase geo-targeting efficiencyGeography
Scientific Attribution should be continuously improved through collaboration
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Data collection
Attribution Modeling
Channel optimization
Performance reporting
Advertiser/Media
Agency feedback
Analytics + Database
Analytics
Analytics + MediaMedia
Everyone!
Media Channel Last Click CPS
“Full Click” CPS
Difference
Google Brand $24 $29 -21%
Google Non-Brand $58 $36 +38%
Bing Brand $22 $23 -5%
Bing Non-Brand $48 $29 +40%
Ad.com $87 $94 -8%
ValueClick $105 $76 +28%
Google Display $65 $43 +34%
Rich Media $41 $25 +39%
Create actionable results via “Full Click” metrics
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+ budget
+ budget
- budget
Directly incorporate “Full Click” metrics into bid management tool (Marin, etc.)
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What is Digital
Attribution?
Scientific Digital
AttributionDoes it work? Getting
started
BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client
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Goal: increase media efficiency and identify valuable “assist” keywords
Solution: Scientific Attribution model, focusing on ease of implementation
Result: more efficient media buys
BKV’s integrated approach to attribution proved useful for a major Telecom client
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• Discuss objectives and goals with client
• Collect/process appropriate data
• Determine most appropriate modeling structure & approach
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• Build custom model for client
• Extensive testing process to verify model findings
• Create actionable recommendations based on modeling results
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• Implement Scientific Attribution
• Report on findings over several weeks to gauge impact
• Initiate refinements for future iterations
Scientific Attribution delivered tangible results upon implementation
2% daily spend
increase
22% daily orders
increase
16% cost per sale
decrease
Scientific Attribution implementation results
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Scientific Attribution will continue to grow and evolve
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Understanding mobile marketing & cross-device
ROI
Determining the value of social media presence
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What is Digital
Attribution?
Scientific Digital
AttributionDoes it work? Getting
started
Scientific Attribution success relies advance planning
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1Verify that all your online marketing is being tracked
and that cookie-level data is available
2Identify a partner for statistical modeling – with
extensive media optimization and analytics experience
3Create a detailed plan for implementation, including a
process for continual improvement
Scientific Attribution is a crucial component of an online media strategy
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Traditional methods fall short
Scientific Attribution not biased
Industry-wide focus to improve
digital attribution
Case studies show strong results