Scotland’s Identity
John CurticeStrathclyde University/NatCen
Ways of Asking
• Forced Choice (either directly or after offering multiple choice)
• Moreno• Different Identities Separately
Forced Choice National Identity
74 79 92 97 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 130
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Scottish British
Sources: 74-97 Scottish Election Study; 99-13 Scottish Social Attitudes
A (Slight) Age Difference
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
12
17
2118
20
2624 25
2220
23
31
2012 2013
% B
ritish
Trends in Moreno National Identity
97 99 3 7 11 12 130
102030405060708090
100
2332 31 27 29 23 25
3835 34
30 3330 29
27 22 2228 23
30 29
4 3 3 5 5 5 44 4 4 6 5 6 6
Scot not Brit More Scot Equal More Brit Brit not Scot
But No Evidence of More Recent Change
Feb May Sept Dec Feb May0
102030405060708090
100
24 23 24 23 22 24
30 27 28 26 25 24
33 33 33 34 33 34
4 5 5 7 6 67 9 8 8 9 9
Sc not Br More Sc than Br EqualMore Br than Sc Br not Sc
Source: Ipsos MORI
Looking at the Two Identities Separately
1 2 3 4 5 6 705
101520253035404550
6 4 3
913
20
44
11 10 9
18 1613
22ScottishBritish
Strength of Identity
% fe
elin
g th
at w
ay
Source: SSA 2012
Dependent Variables
• Referendum Vote Intention (after squeeze)• Independence (in/out Europe) vs. Devolution
(with/without tax) vs. No Parliament• SP take all decisions vs. All bar foreign vs. All
domestic bar tax & welfare vs. No decisions
Scottish Identity Far From Sufficient
Scottish British0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
36
7
29
7
38
5
39
4
201120122013Ref Vote
But Is (Almost) Necessary
Sc not Br More Sc Equal More Br Br not Sc0
10
20
30
40
50
6053
32
12 11 9
46
23
11 12
4
51
34
148 6
53
34
129
5
2011 2012 2013 Ref Vote
% su
ppor
t ind
epen
denc
e
More Recent Confirmation
Sc not Br More Sc than Br
Equal More Br than Sc
Br not Sc0
102030405060708090
100
67
46
169 7
18
39
7181
87
YesNo
Source: Ipsos MORI May 14. Don’t Knows included in denominator
It’s Britishness That Matters More!
1 2 3 4 5 6 70
10
20
30
40
50
60
12 11 11
1824
18
30
53
43
33
2317
11 9
ScottishBritish
Strength of Identity
%su
ppor
t ind
epen
denc
e
Identity Not as Powerful as The Economy
Very Fav Favourable Neither Unfavourable Very Unfav0
102030405060708090
100
53
34
12 9 5
86
67
23
5 2
Identity Economy
% Y
es
Only (Really) Matters When Convinced The Idea is Practical
Perceived Impact of Independence on Economy
Scottish only
More Scottish
Equal More British/British only
Stronger 88 67 42 29No Difference
33 31 12 12
Weaker 9 4 3 3
More Devolution Helps Satisfy The Duallists (But Also Has Cross-Appeal)
Scottish only
More Scottish
Equal More British
British only
Independence
52 32 17 19 8
Devo Max
29 34 35 20 26
EITHER 83 66 52 39 34
Summary• Referendum would not be happening without the
existence of a distinct sense of national identity.• But a strong Scottish - or more importantly a weak British
identity - is not a sufficient condition for supporting independence.
• People need to be convinced of practical efficacy of independence if they are to be persuaded to let go of their Britishness. (More devolution may be thought sufficient).
• Onset of referendum may have rekindled some people’s sense of being British.