Scott Adams Econimists Survey

8/8/2019 Scott Adams Econimists Survey

1/98

HOW ECONOMISTS VIEW THEPRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

A StudyConducted for

SCOTT ADAMS, INC.

by

The OSR GroupSeptember 2008


2/98

How Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 2

CONTENTS

Research Objectives 4

Study Methodology 6

Demographics of the Respondents 10

Political Profile of the Respondents 15

Familiarity with the Candidates Economic Programs 22 Most Important Economic Issues 28

Which Candidate Would Do the Best with Each Issue 40


3/98


CONTENTS

(continued)

Overall Perspectives on the Candidates

Economic Programs 60

Advice for the Candidates 80

Summary of Key Findings 89

Appendix (More Details on the Methodology) 94


4/98

H

ow Economists View the Presidential Election -- September 2008 4

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

To understand which Presidential candidate John McCain orBarack Obama -- is believed by U.S. economists to be best for

the economy overall, over the long term.

To evaluate which issues economists believe are mostimportant, as they relate to the U.S. economy.

To understand which candidate is expected to make the mostprogress dealing with the issues that economists see as mostimportant.


5/98

H


RESEARCH OBJECTIVES(continued)

To assess which candidate is expected to do the best job witheach of 20 potentially important economic issues.

To understand what types of economic advice economistswould offer to John McCain and to Barack Obama.

To evaluate these and other issues by a selection of keydemographics of U.S. economists.


6/98

H


STUDYMETHODOLOGY


7/98

H


PROJECT OVERVIEW

A total of 523 online interviews were conducted amongeconomists who appear on the American Economic

Associations opt-in membership list.

E-mail invitations were sent to 6,514 people on a list of AEAmembers who have agreed to receive surveys and other e-mailsfrom the Association.

The invitation to participate was sent on August 7, 2008. Thesurvey was closed to additional responses on August 11, 2008.


8/98

H


RESPONDENT SELECTION

To qualify for the survey, potential respondents had to meet twotests:

1. They had to confirm that they are members of the AmericanEconomic Association.

2. They had to be citizens of the United States.


9/98

H


AN IMPORTANT NOTE

The American Economic Association did not sponsor the survey,and is not responsible for the interpretation of the survey results.

Scott Adams, Inc., and The OSR Group, thank the AEA forproviding their opt-in membership list to serve as the sampleframe for this effort.


10/98

H


DEMOGRAPHICS OFTHE RESPONDENTS


11/98


GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONOF THE ECONOMISTS

West(16%)

-- California 10%

Northeast(24%)

-- New York 8%

-- Pennsylvania 5%

South(33%)

-- Virginia 7%-- Maryland 6%

Midwest(24%)

-- Illinois 7%-- Michigan 4%


12/98


WORK/PROFESSION

Academia/Education 65%

Consulting 9%

Government 9%

The financial industry 6%

Other business/corporation/industry 6%

Editor/Columnist 1%Think tank 1%

Other 2%

Retired/Not employed at present 5%


13/98


GENDER

8

14

l (8 )

l (14 )

Eighty-six percent of the economists are male; 14% are female.


14/98


HOUSEHOLD INCOME

43

1

10

11 7

14 L ss t $7 000 (7 )

$7 000 -


15/98


POLITICAL PROFILE OFTHE RESPONDENTS


16/98


PARTY IDENTIFICATION

27

3 2

3

48

17

D r t (48 )

R bl (17 )

I t (27 )

b rt r (3 )

Ot r rt (2 )

N t r g st r (3 )

Almost half (48%) of the economists say they are registered Democrats.Only one in six (17%) are registered Republicans. Twenty-seven percentare registered as Independents.


17/98


CANDIDATE PREFERENCE

28B r k Ob ( )

C (28 )

ls ( )

As of today, 66% of the economists say they would vote for BarackObama, the Democratic candidate. Twenty-eight percent would votefor the Republican candidate, John McCain.


18/98


CANDIDATE PREFERENCE:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION

0

78

33

93

1

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

80

90

100

D o R pu l n Ind p nd n

B kO

ohnC n

Not surprisingly, Democrats favor Obama, and Republicans favorMcCain (although 15% of the Republicans favor Obama). By 60-33%,the Independents favor Obama.


19/98


CANDIDATE PREFERENCE:BY INCOME

8

229

1

9

28

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

80

$100 $100 $200 $200

B kO

ohnM C n

There are no statistically significant differences by income, although theeconomists who earn less than $100,000 are slightly less likely to favorObama.


20/98


PROVIDING ECONOMIC ADVICE

1

8

s v vv (1 )

N v t v

v (8 )

Fifteen percent of the economists say they have provided economic adviceto one or more candidates at a national, state, or local level during thepast year. Eighty-five percent have not done so.


21/98


PROVIDING ADVICE:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION

9

78

89

1420

8

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

80

90

100


Y s

No

Republican economists are more likely to have provided advice than areDemocrats or Independents.


22/98


FAMILIARITY WITH THE CANDIDATESECONOMIC PROGRAMS


23/98


FAMILIARITY WITH McCAINSECONOMIC PROGRAM

3

27

91

f i i (27 )

So wh t f i i ( 3 )

Not f i i (9 )

Not t f i i (1 )

Twenty-seven percent of economists say they are very familiar with JohnMcCains economic program. In total, 90% say they are at least somewhatfamiliar with this program.


24/98


FAMILIARITY WITH McCAINS PROGRAM:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE

1

2 27

9

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

80

90

100

F McC F O

Sl

V l

Those who favor McCain are more likely to be at least somewhat familiarwith McCains economic program.


25/98


FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMASECONOMIC PROGRAM

1

30

81

f i i (30 )

So wh t f i i ( 1 )

Not f i i (8 )

Not t f i i (1 )

Three in ten economists say they are very familiar with Barack Obamaseconomic program. In total, 91% say they are at least somewhat familiarwith this program.


26/98


27/98


OVERALL FAMILIARITY WITHTHE TWO PROGRAMS

1

27 30

3

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

80

90

100

M C P O P

Sl

V l

Overall, the economists are about equally familiar with the two programs.


28/98


MOST IMPORTANTECONOMIC ISSUES


29/98


HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED

The respondents were shown a list of 20 issues and asked torate the importance of each. The question was worded asfollows:

Here are some issues that some people have said are importantto the U.S. economy. Please rate your own view of the importanceof each issue, as it relates to the U.S. economy. Use a scale of 1-10, where 10 means this issue is absolutely critical to theeconomy, and 1 means it is not important to the economy.

The order of presentation of the 20 items was randomized, toreduce bias. The items appear on the next two pages.


30/98


THE ISSUES

International trade policy

Encouraging technology and innovation

The mortgage and housing crisis

Providing tax relief for the middle class Reducing the Federal budget deficit

Environmental protection, including reducing global warming

Education

Energy policy, including developing alternative sources of

energy Eliminating the estate tax

Increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiestAmericans


31/98


THE ISSUES

(continued)

Immigration policy

Reforming bankruptcy laws

Extending unemployment insurance

Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation

Reducing the capital gains tax

Extending and strengthening the Unemployment Insurancesystem

Fixing the Social Security system

Health care policy

Reducing waste in government

Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and homeland security


32/98


THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES( a ed on % of - ratin )

2% %7 % 7%

%

%

2 %

3 %

4 %

%

%

7 %

%

Edu ation Health are International

trade

Ener

The top four issues education, health care, international trade, and energy are each rated at least 8 in importance by 60% or more.


33/98


THE NEXT SET OF ISSUES( a ed on % of - ratin )

2%%%

%

%

2 %

3 %

4 %

%

%

7 %

En oura in

te hnolo and

inno ation

ar in Iraq and

f hani tan and

ho eland

e urit

ort a e and

hou in ri i

The next three issues are each rated at least 8 in importance by 50% ormore.


34/98


35/98


THE FOURTH SET OF ISSUES( a ed on % of - ratin )

29% 2 %

%

%

2 %

3 %

4 %

%

%

In rea in the

proportion of taxe paid

the ealthie t

eri an

Redu in a te in

o ern ent

The next two issues are each rated at least 8 in importance by 20% ormore.


36/98


THE REST OF THE LIST

( a ed on % of - ratin )

The final seven issues are each rated at least 8 on the 1-10importance scale by fewer than 20% of the economists:

Providing tax relief for the middle class (16%) Reducing the capital gains tax (15%)

Extending unemployment insurance (14%)

Extending and strengthening the Unemployment Insurance system(13%)

Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation (13%) Reforming bankruptcy laws (11%)

Eliminating the estate tax (9%)


37/98


MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE

For tho e ho fa or McCain

International trade (73%)

Education (64%)

Social Security (63%) Technology and innovation

(58%)

Iraq, Afghanistan, andhomeland security (49%)

Reducing waste (46%)

Health care (45%)

Energy (42%)

Immigration (42%)

For tho e ho fa or O ama

Health care (77%)

Education (74%)

Energy (70%) Iraq, Afghanistan, homeland

security (63%)

Environment (61%)

Mortgage and housing crisis(59%)

Technology and innovation(59%)

International trade (57%)


38/98


THE ISSUES WITH THE LARGEST

PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCES

Favor McCain Favor Obama

Reducing capital gains tax % 4%

Reducing waste 6% 18%

Eliminating estate tax % 3%

Social Security 6 % 43%

Environment 12% 6 %Taxes paid by the wealthiest 5% %

Health care 45% %

Energy 42% %


39/98


A NOTE ABOUT SUBGROUPS

It is worth noting that those who favor Obama give higherpercentage ratings [in other words, higher proportions rate theissue at least 8 in importance] for 14 of the 20 issues.

It is also worth noting that those who claim to be most familiarwith the two candidates economic plans are most likely tochoose higher percentage ratings.

Those who say they are very familiar with McCains programchoose higher percentages for 14 issues than do those who are

less familiar. Those who say they are very familiar with Obamas program

choose higher percentages for 16 issues than do those who areless familiar.


40/98


WHICH CANDIDATE WOULD DOTHE BEST WITH EACH ISSUE


41/98



After they rated the importance of each of the 20 issues, therespondents were asked to note which candidate would do thebest job with each issue. The question was worded as follows:

H

ere is the list of issues once again. Now please note which of thetwo Presidential candidates you believe would do the best job witheach of these issues. Please use the scale you see below for yourratings.

If you wish, you may refer to the candidates Web pages to reviewtheir proposed policies, but you do not need to do this. The

following links will get you to the economic policy pages at eachcandidates Web site:

John McCain: http://www.johnmccain.com/Issues/jobsforamerica/

Barack Obama http://origin:barackobama.com/issues/economy/


42/98



(continued)

For this question, the economists used a 7-point scale, with

McCain at 1, no difference at 4, and Obama at 7. Therefore,any response of 1-3 meant that McCain would do the best jobwith that issue, and any response of 5-7 meant Obama woulddo the best job with that issue.

As was true earlier, the order of presentation of the 20 itemswas randomized, to reduce bias.


43/98


McCAINS STRONGEST ISSUES

(% ho a he ou d do the e t jo )

Reducing the capital gains tax 72%

Eliminating the estate tax 63%

International trade policy 51%

Reducing waste in government 38%

Iraq, Afghanistan, and homeland security 30%

Immigration policy 29%

Reducing the deficit 29%


44/98


OBAMAS STRONGEST ISSUES

(% ho a he ou d do the e t jo )

Taxes paid by the wealthiest 79%

Environmental protection 72%

Raising the minimum wage 70%

Extending unemployment insurance 68%

Health care 65%

Unemployment Insurance system 65%Energy 61%

Education 59%

Iraq, Afghanistan, and homeland security 58%


45/98


HOW THE CANDIDATES COMPARE ON THE

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES

The charts on the next seven pages compare the candidates onall 20 issues, in order of the importance of these issues. Foreach issue, the charts show the percentage who say McCain

would be best, the percentage who say Obama would be best,and the percentage who say there would be no differencebetween the candidates.

In total, Obama rates higher than McCain on 16 of the 20

issues; McCain rates higher than Obama on four issues.

Among the most important issues, Obama rates higher on 11 ofthe top 12.


46/98


47/98


COMPARISONS ON THENEXT MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES

8

34 11

1 43

17

22 2330

0

20

40

0

80

100

120

E T I s S

M C

N

O

Obama is strongly preferred on each of the next three issues.


48/98


COMPARISONS ON THETHIRD SET OF ISSUES

72

3

19

41 40

41

1824

9

0

20

40

0

80

100

120

M H s S l S E

M C

N

O

Obama is also the clear choice for the next three issues. The difference isparticularly striking for environmental protection.


49/98


COMPARISONS ON THEFOURTH SET OF ISSUES

79

38

37 33

7

33

29 2914

0

20

40

0

80

100

120

I on T x s p d h

l h s

M C n

No d n

O

Obama is also preferred for these next three issues, and especially forincreasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans. Notethat Obama is seen as the best choice (by 37-29%) for reducing theFederal budget deficit.


50/98


COMPARISONS ON THEFIFTH SET OF ISSUES

17

2

11

1

4

3819

72

0

20

40

0

80

100

120

R s M l l ss x

l

R l

s x

M C

N

O

On two of these three issues the 13th and 15th most important McCainis seen as the better choice. Obama is best for providing tax relief to themiddle class.


51/98


52/98


COMPARISONS ON THELEAST IMPORTANT ISSUES

1731

20

49

20

3

0

20

40

0

80

100

120

R k l s El s x

M C

N

O

Obama is the choice for reforming bankruptcy laws. McCain is clearlypreferred for eliminating the estate tax.


53/98


DEFECTIONS ON THE MOST

IMPORTANT ISSUES

The next six pages show how opinions about who would be bestfor the six most important issues vary by candidate preference

and by party identification. In other words, to what extent dothose who support McCain overall defect to Obama forparticular issues, and to what extent do those who supportObama overall defect to McCain.

Similarly, to what extent do Democrats and Republicans crossparty lines on the most important economic issues. The viewsof Independents on each issue are also shown.


54/98


WHO WOULD BE BEST AT EDUCATION:BY KEY SUBGROUPS

For the most important issue education -- McCain supportersbelieve McCain would do the best job on this issue, but by asmaller margin than the one by which Obama supporterschoose Obama. The same is true for Democrats and

Republicans. Independents believe Obama would do the bestjob on education.

McCain supporters (Obama 16%; McCain 41%)

Obama supporters (Obama 81%; McCain 2%)

Democrats (Obama 82%; McCain 2%)

Republicans (Obama 19%; McCain 41%)

Independents (Obama 50%; McCain 18%)


55/98


WHO WOULD BE BEST AT HEALTH CARE:BY KEY SUBGROUPS

For the second most important issue health care the samepattern holds. McCain supporters believe McCain would do thebest job on this issue, but by a smaller margin than the one bywhich Obama supporters choose Obama. The same is true,

once again, for Democrats and Republicans. Independentsbelieve Obama would do the best job on health care.







56/98


WHO WOULD BE BEST AT INTERNATIONALTRADE: BY KEY SUBGROUPS

For the next issue international trade Obama supporters arejust as likely to pick McCain as they are to pick their owncandidate. McCains international trade policy also picks up

significant support from Democrats and from Independents.



Democrats (Obama 42%; McCain 34%) Republicans (Obama 5%; McCain 82%)



57/98


WHO WOULD BE BEST AT ENERGY:BY KEY SUBGROUPS

For the next issue energy policy the pattern is the same asfor the first two issues. Obama does better among McCainsupporters than McCain does among Obama supporters.

Independents think Obama would do the best job on energy.



Democrats (Obama 86%; McCain 4%) Republicans (Obama 18%; McCain 65%)



58/98


59/98


WHO WOULD BE BEST AT IRAQ,AFGHANISTAN, AND HOMELAND

SECURITY: BY KEY SUBGROUPS

On this issue, McCain supporters believe McCain would do thebest, and Obama supporters believe Obama would do the best.The fact that there are more Obama supporters overall explains

why this issue is in the Obama column. Independents favorObama.







60/98


OVERALL PERSPECTIVES ON THE

CANDIDATES ECONOMIC PROGRAMS


61/98


MAKING THE MOST PROGRESS HOW THE QUESTION WAS ASKED

After the discussion of specific issues, the economists wereasked which candidate would be best on the issues ofimportance. The question was worded as follows:

Overall, which candidate do you think would make the mostprogress on the issues you believe are most important to theeconomy overall?

Once again, the respondents were asked to use a 7-point scale,

with McCain at 1, no difference at 4, and Obama at 7.Therefore, any response of 1-3 meant that McCain would makethe most progress, and any response of 5-7 meant Obamawould make the most.


62/98


WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS

32

0

8

B r k Ob ( 0 )

N ff r (8 )

M C (32 )

Overall, 60% of the economists say Barack Obama would make the mostprogress on important economic issues. Thirty-two percent pick JohnMcCain.


63/98


WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION

49

8

37

90

108

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

80

90

100


B kO

ohn

M C n

Democrats choose Obama by a large margin, and Republicans chooseMcCain. Independents pick Obama, by 49-37%.


64/98


WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE

1

9091

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

80

90

100

F o M C n F o O

B kO

ohn

M C n

Not surprisingly, those who favor each candidate overall also believe thatcandidate would do best with the most important economic issues.


65/98


WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY INCOME

8

27

38

8

31

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

$100K $100K $200K $200K

B kO

ohn

M C n

The middle group is slightly more likely to favor Obama. Otherwise, thereare no significant differences by income.


66/98


WHO WOULD MAKE THE MOST PROGRESS:BY FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN PROGRAM

32

30

32

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

l L ss l

B ckO

ohn

McC n

Those who are very familiar with the McCain economic program areabout as likely to believe Obama would do the best job as are those whoare less familiar with McCains program.


67/98


68/98


WHY SOME RESPONDENTSSELECTED McCAIN

(open-ended que tion)

Prefer his economic policy 22%

Prefer his trade policy 12%More likely to reduce government/Less regulation 9%

More experienced 7%

McCain understands economics 4%

Disagree with Obamas policies 17%

Disagree with Obamas trade policy 5%


69/98


WHY McCAIN IN THERESPONDENTS OWN WORDS

McCain could be less inclined to make changes, which will bebetter for the economy. Obama will try to leave his mark in thesociety, which is bad. Never underestimate a politician'scapacity to screw up the economy.

Sen. McCain appears to favor a greater reliance on the marketand less on taxation or regulation, which is an approach I favor.

In most cases, McCain favors doing the things like free tradethat will most help the economy and opposes things likeincreasing and indexing the minimum wage which would hurt it.

Republicans are better for business and capitalism. McCain understands that there is no free lunch. He will

encourage private initiative and take more seriously our long-term fiscal crisis.


70/98


WHY SOME RESPONDENTSSELECTED OBAMA


Prefer his economic policy 15%

Prefer his health care policy 9%

He is intelligent/educated 8%Good advisors 7%

More likely to bring about change 7%

Agree with his values/positions 6%

Prefer his energy policy 6%

Disagree with McCains policies 8%

McCain wants to maintain Bush policies 6%


71/98


72/98


WHY SOME RESPONDENTSSAY THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE


Dislike both/It doesnt matter 28%

A President has limited ability to affect the economy 15%

They have similar views 15%


73/98


74/98


WHO WOULD BE BEST FOR THE LONG TERM

31

9

10

B r k Ob ( 9 )

N ff r (10 )

M C (31 )

By almost exactly the same percentages as for the make the mostprogress question, 59% of the economists say Barack Obama wouldbe best for the long term; 31% say John McCain would be best.

BEST FOR THE LONG TERM


75/98


BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION

4

80

39

88

97

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

7080

90

100


B kO

ohn

M C n

Once again, Democrats choose Obama by a large margin, andRepublicans choose McCain. Independents pick Obama, by 46-39%.



76/98


BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY CANDIDATE PREFERENCE

1

8790

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

7080

90

100

F o M C n F o O

B kO

ohn

M C n

As was true earlier, those who favor each candidate overall also believethat candidate would be best for the economy, over the long term.



77/98


BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY INCOME

7

2934

82

29

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

$100 $100 $200 $200

B kO

ohn

M C n

The middle group is slightly more likely to favor Obama. The highestincome group is slightly more likely to prefer McCain than are the othergroups.



78/98


BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY FAMILIARITY WITH McCAIN PROGRAM

32

37

28

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

l L ss l

B ckO

ohn

McC n

Those who are very familiar with the McCain economic program aremore likely to believe Obama would be best for the long term than arethose who are less familiar with McCains program.



79/98


BEST FOR THE LONG TERM:BY FAMILIARITY WITH OBAMA PROGRAM

33

27

0

10

20

30

40

0

0

70

l L ss l

B kO

ohn

M n

Those who are very familiar with the Obama economic program aremore likely to believe Obama would be best for the long term than arethose who are less familiar with Obamas program.


80/98


ADVICE FOR

THE CANDIDATES


81/98


ASKING FOR ADVICE

Toward the end of the interview, the economists were asked tooffer advice to the two candidates. The questions were askedin an open-ended way, so that the economists could respond intheir own words. The two questions were worded as follows:

Lets say John McCains campaign asked you to offer someeconomic advice. What 2 or 3 things would you suggest, from theperspective of an economist? Please be as specific as possible.

Lets say Barack Obamas campaign asked you to offer someeconomic advice. What 2 or 3 things would you suggest, from theperspective of an economist? Please be as specific as possible.


82/98


ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN(open-ended que tion)

Focu on pecific po ic area (NET) %

-- Focus on health care 20%

-- Focus on energy policy 17%

-- Focus on education 11%-- Focus on immigration 8%

-- Focus on the environment 5%

Ta e (NET) %

-- Raise taxes 10%

-- Cut taxes 8%

-- Dont cut taxes 8%


83/98


ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN(continued)

Ta e (NET) continued

-- Focus on tax reform 7%

-- Eliminate the Bush tax cuts 5%

-- Scrap the Gas Tax Holiday idea 4%

Finance (NET) %

-- Cut/control spending 7%

-- Cut the deficit 7%-- Increase financial regulation 5%

-- Balance the budget 3%


84/98


ADVICE FOR JOHN McCAIN(continued)

Support free trade %

Defen e (NET) %

-- Get out of Iraq 7%-- Reduce military spending 3%

Fi Socia Securit %

Dont dri for oi 5%

Focu on ma er o ernment/ e re u ation %

Reduce/Remo e u idie %

In e t in infra tructure %


85/98


86/98


ADVICE FOR BARACK OBAMA(continued)

Ta e (NET) continued

-- Focus on tax reform 6%

-- Dont cut taxes 3%

-- Drop the windfall/excess profits tax 3%

Support free trade 6%

Finance (NET) %

-- Cut the deficit 9%

-- Cut/control spending 5%

-- Increase financial regulation 4%

-- Balance the budget 4%


87/98


ADVICE FOR BARACK OBAMA(continued)

Fi Socia Securit %

Focu on ma er o ernment/ e re u ation 6%

Reduce/Remo e u idie 6%

Defen e (NET) 6%

-- Get out of Iraq 4%

-- Reduce military spending 3%

Increa e incenti e 5%

Fi Medicare %

In e t in infra tructure %


88/98


A COMMENT ABOUT THE ADVICE

Note that the categories of advice are the same for bothcandidates. The percentages change somewhat, when onecandidate is perceived to need more advice in that area. Forexample, the percentage who tell Obama to support free trade is26%; only 13% offer this advice to McCain. On the other side,17% advise McCain to focus on energy policy, compared to14% who give this advice to Obama.

Note also that the specific policy areas that generate the most

advice education, health care, international trade, and energy are also the four areas that ranked as the most importantissues, according to the economists.


89/98


SUMMARY OF

KEY FINDINGS


90/98


SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS

1. By a margin of 60-32%, economists believe Barack Obamawould be better than John McCain at making progress on theissues that are most important to the economy. (The remaining8% see no difference between the candidates on this measure.)

2. By an almost identical margin (59-31%), economists thinkObama would be best for the economy overall, over the longterm. (Ten percent say there would be no difference betweenthe candidates.)

3. If the election were held today, 66% of the economists wouldfavor Obama and 28% would favor McCain. (Six percent wouldfavor someone else.)



91/98


SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS(continued)

4. Democrats make up 48% of the economists; only 17% say theyare Republicans. About three in ten (28%) are Independents.The Democrats are especially likely to favor Obama, and tobelieve Obama would be best for the economy. Similarly, theRepublicans favor McCain and believe McCain would be best

for the economy. By 60-33%, the Independents favor Obama.

5. From a list of 20 issues, the economists rank education as mostimportant to the U.S. economy (71% rate this issue either 8,9, or 10 in importance, on a 10-point scale). The next most

important issues are health care (67%), international trade(62%), and energy (60%). Following that are wars in Iraq and

Afghanistan and homeland security (58%), and technology andinnovation (also 58%).


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(continued)5. Obama is seen as most likely to do the best job on 16 of the 20

issues that were discussed. McCain rates higher than Obamaon four issues. Among the issues seen as most important tothe U.S. economy, Obama rates higher than McCain on 11 ofthe top 12.

6. The top issues for McCain are:

Reducing the capital gains tax (72% say McCain would be betteron this issue);

Eliminating the estate tax (63%);

International trade policy (51%); and

Reducing waste in government (38%).


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(continued)

7. The top issues for Obama are:

Increasing the proportion of taxes paid by the wealthiestAmericans (79% say Obama would be better on this issue);

Environmental protection, including reducing global warming(72%);

Raising the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation (70%); and

Extending unemployment insurance (68%).

8. When asked to give advice to the candidates, the economistsfocus on the issues they had described as most important education, health care, international trade, and energy.


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APPENDIX

(MORE DETAILS ONTHE METHODOLOGY)


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STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

All individuals on the AEAs opt-in list were asked to participatein the survey. Therefore the respondents were not sampled ina statistical sense. Those who chose to participate wereincluded among the respondents.

With that said, it is helpful to understand the rules for statisticalsignificance that would apply to random samples of similarsizes, as a guideline in understanding the importance ofdifferences among various subgroups of the data.

The maximum sampling tolerances that would apply to randomlyselected samples of various sizes are shown on the next page.These figures represent the 95% confidence level, which isbased on two standard deviations.


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MAXIMUM SAMPLING TOLERANCES(continued)

The sampling tolerances that apply to other subgroups of thedata depend on the numbers of interviews in those subgroups:

Numbers of Interviews Maximum Sampling Tolerance

400 + 5%

200 + 7%

150 + 8%

100 + 10%

50 + 14%

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Scott Adams Econimists Survey

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