Developing Rail in the Liverpool City Region…Supporting Growth in the Sub-Regional, Regional and National Economies

Executive SummaryThis report has been prepared by Merseytravel to provide a rationale for a Long Term Rail Strategy for the Liverpool City Region (LCR) by setting into context its role in supporting an agenda for economic growth. It highlights the importance of addressing the shortcomings of region’s rail system as an enabler to attracting private sector inward investment and realising the full potential benefits of HS2 for the LCR. In introducing the Long Term Rail Strategy5, this report highlights the future needs for rail in the LCR and identifies priorities for rail investment in the near and medium term (to 2025 and beyond).

The LCR represents an area of enterprise and opportunity. In recent times the fortunes of the LCR have turned a corner. Since the millennium Liverpool's economy has grown faster than that of the UK. Recent forecasts for the LCR suggest that GVA will grow by 69% by 2030, 7% more than national GVA. The city centre has experienced a resurgence as a retail, tourism and business destination following a transformational investment programme. The Port of Liverpool is the largest Freeport Zone in the UK and one of Northern Europe’s top 20 container ports. Liverpool supports a vibrant and growing visitor economy worth £3.4bn per annum and is now the UK’s 6th largest tourist destination.

The LCR Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has developed a Growth Plan & Strategic Economic Plan for the LCR1 which sets out an agenda for driving economic growth. A key driver in this growth agenda is to deliver a globally connected City Region. Two key pillars of which are the SUPERPORT initiative and HS2. SUPERPORT seeks to bring together and integrate the strengths of the region’s Ports, Airports and Freight Community to create the most effective and cost efficient environment for freight cargo logistics and passenger transit in the UK. HS2 is set to create a step change in connectivity for the cities within its reach, which in turn represents a huge opportunity for attracting inward investment.

An Economic Study3 commissioned by the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and Merseytravel on behalf of the Liverpool City Region has indicated that a direct High Speed connection in to Liverpool and enhanced conventional rail connectivity will generate substantial benefit for the Liverpool City Region and thereby assist in the re-balancing of the UK economy for the benefit of the whole of the north of England, North Wales and Scotland.

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The study indicates that the direct connection could generate the following benefits for the Liverpool City Region:

An uplift in Gross Value Added (GVA) of the order of £550m on a single year basis and £8.3bn on a 60 year NPV basis.

An increase in employment of the order of 14,000 jobs (with the potential for a total of 26,000 jobs).

A business rates uplift of up to £30m per annum. An uplift in city centre property and land values of up to £180m. A population uplift of up to 20,000 residents requiring 10,000 new homes to be

constructed.

In addition, should a direct connection facilitate additional capacity for rail freight the economic benefits of 21 additional daily freight services has been values at up to £40m on a single year basis and £630m on a 60 year NPV basis.

In his recent report HS2 Plus9, Sir David Higgins, Chairman of HS2 Ltd highlighted that improving the capacity, connectivity and quality of the LCR’s rail network will be as essential to supporting and stimulating economic growth as HS2 itself. Furthermore, the HS2 Growth Task Force12 emphasised the important interdependence between HS2 and the existing rail network and the need for a wider review of rail services to ensure effective connectivity with HS2 and to exploit released capacity, including opportunities for growth for the rail freight industry to support the development of SUPERPORT and a network of cost-efficient and carbon-efficient supply chains.

With this in mind, Merseytravel in partnership with Network Rail and the wider rail industry has embarked on developing a Long Term Rail Strategy that aims to ensure that the railway, and the economic success of the LCR, is able to grow in an unhindered fashion and that rail travel is able to be a facilitator rather than a barrier to this growth. The economic benefits will not only be felt at a regional and sub-regional level, there will be national benefits too, such as the value of an expanding freight and logistics port servicing industries across the nation. There are also wider environmental and health benefits that flow from expanding the electrified rail network and rail attracting traffic from more polluting modes.

The LCR has an extensive passenger rail network, including an underground network that penetrates the heart of Liverpool city centre. However, the rail system has some inherent weaknesses that will need to be addressed in order to provide the fully effective and efficient transportation system necessary to attract inward investors to the region and to support the travel growth that is anticipated to follow. These fall into three categories: capacity, connectivity and quality. Forecasts of passenger demand growth on the region’s rail network indicate that, even without further interventions on the network, almost all lines in the LCR will be experiencing peak loadings in excess of 100% of train service capacity by 2033. Whilst one of the key benefits of HS2 will be to release capacity on the southern section of the West Coast Main Line (WCML), it will not release rail freight capacity north of Crewe, a key requirement to support the growth of SUPERPORT. In fact, with additional HS2 services operating over the WCML north of Crewe, the capacity constraint will be compounded. The

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LCR at present does not have direct rail linkages to some key centres of population and employment and Liverpool’s long distance connectivity with other major UK economic centres compares unfavourably with similar cities. The LCR Strategic Economic Plan identifies proposals for major developments, many in new areas that are currently without access to the rail network. The asset condition and capability of both infrastructure and rolling stock is also an impediment to improving the quality of rail services offered for both passengers and freight shippers.

The Long Term Rail Strategy for LCR provides a 20-year vision for rail infrastructure and services and sets out a prioritised package of schemes that aims to address these key challenges and provide a sustainable foundation for growth. This document sets out the context and rationale for the LCR Long Term Rail Strategy and provides an initial insight to the schemes and an outline programme that phases their delivery to align with the planned completion of HS2 and SUPERPORT by the end of control period 8.

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IntroductionThe Liverpool City Region (LCR) comprises the six Local Authority Districts of Halton, Knowsley, Liverpool, Sefton, St. Helens and the Wirral. The LCR not only has important economic connections with the neighbouring hinterland and the other major UK City Regions, but also across the globe; trading through Liverpool provides easy access to around 32million individuals in the UK within just a few hours. The LCR itself has a population of 1.5million people and a vibrant and growing economy worth around £23bn1.

The LCR has seen a renaissance in recent years. Unprecedented levels of investment and development have improved the region’s economic performance. Liverpool city centre has changed beyond all recognition with its Waterfront now a world-class visitor destination; the look and performance of the city’s business district has been transformed and the city’s retail and cultural offer is amongst the best in the UK. The LCR has been successful in attracting private investment to support regeneration zones on the sites of former industries and turnaround of some the LCR’s major business such as Jaguar Landrover and Unilever. New industries have also started to emerge, such as life sciences which now account for over 57,000 jobs, with pharmaceutical companies such as Eli Lilly, Novartis and Bristol-Myers Squibb having important bases in the region. The economic outlook has passed a turning point with reversal of declining employment trends. Population and GVA is now forecast to grow steadily.

The LCR is seeking to build on these successes and pursue an agenda for growth, with a vision to be “a globally connected City Region delivering sustainable growth, opportunity and prosperity for people and businesses”1. The LCR strategy for achieving this vision is based on a twin-track approach. First, where there are genuine comparative strengths and competitive advantage investment will be prioritised and targeted to hasten the speed of growth. This approach alone will not be enough. So second, there is also a need to create an environment that supports growth across all aspects of the regional economy and in all sectors that ensures that all people and places benefit from the growth achieved and in a sustainable way. One of the key enablers is the LCR’s transportation system. Rail forms a major component of the LCR’s infrastructure. A successful growth strategy will require an efficient and high quality rail system which is integrated with other public and private modes, that provides both regional and national connectivity for passengers and has the capacity and capability to accommodate increasing freight flows to and from the region’s industries and port facilities.

National government is pressing ahead with its plans to build a high speed rail system that has the potential to serve as a catalyst for change. HS2 will dramatically reduce the journey times between north and south and provide much needed capacity relief to some of the most congested parts of the national rail network. Details of scope and phasing of HS2 are subject to refinement, but the recent review by Sir David Higgins highlighted the benefits of advancing the first phase of the project further north than had been initially proposed. HS2 is set to bring Liverpool much closer to London, the South East and even Heathrow, which, having worldwide connections, would also have benefits for the LCR. But, given the considerable investment required to deliver HS2, it is essential that the opportunity to realise the full potential benefits

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of the project are seized. That means ensuring that there is connectivity with high quality complementary rail services, that there is sufficient capacity in the region’s rail system to accommodate growth driven directly or indirectly by HS2 and that additional capacity to accommodate increasing railfreight is built into critical sections of the existing rail network which will remain as bottlenecks even after construction of HS2. On top of this, the LCR needs to grasp the opportunity and evolve and refine its land use and development strategies to maximise the benefits that HS2 can bring to the LCR. The aspiration is for a full High Speed link to Liverpool.

Purpose and scope of this report

Merseytravel, as the Executive body responsible for providing strategic transport advice to the recently formed Liverpool City Region Combined Authority, recognises the crucial role of rail in providing for the future transport needs of the LCR and the challenges and opportunities that those needs present.

This report has been prepared by Merseytravel to provide a rationale for a Long Term Rail Strategy for the LCR, by setting into context its role in supporting an agenda for economic growth. It highlights the importance of addressing the shortcomings of region’s rail system as an enabler to attracting private sector inward investment and realising the full potential benefits of HS2 for the LCR. In introducing the Long Term Rail Strategy, this report highlights the future needs for rail in the LCR and identifies priorities for rail investment in the near and medium term (to 2025).

The report draws on a number of relevant recent reports and studies, including:

The Liverpool City Region Growth Plan & Strategic Economic Plan (LEP) 1 Consultant reports relating to recent studies:

- City Centre Strategic Investment Framework (Liverpool Vision)2

- HS2 and benefits for LCR (Steer Davies Gleave, commissioned by Merseytravel/LCR LEP)3

- Merseyrail Electrics, 5 year strategy (Merseytravel)4

- LCR: Long Term Rail Strategy (Mott Macdonald, commissioned by Merseytravel)5

- The LCR Freight Study (MDS Transmodal)6

Details of references used in this report are summarised in Appendix A at the end of the document.

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The Liverpool City Region TodayThe LCR represents an area of enterprise and opportunity. In recent times the fortunes of the LCR have turned a corner. Since the millennium Liverpool's economy has grown faster than that of the UK. The city centre has experienced a resurgence as a retail, tourism and business destination following a transformational investment programme that has delivered the redevelopment of Liverpool Waterfront, some world class conference venues including the “BT Convention Centre”, the “ECHO Arena”, the “Exhibition Centre Liverpool” and the hugely successful £1bn Liverpool One retail and leisure complex. Following the opening of Liverpool One in 2007 and the accolade of European Capital of Culture in 2008, Liverpool has harnessed this investment to successfully promote itself as an international destination and drive growth in the retail and tourism sectors.

The Port of Liverpool is the largest Freeport Zone in the UK and one of Northern Europe’s top 20 container ports. It has trebled its volume of freight since 1985 and handles 5.3% of the total freight of UK ports. Two major projects totalling £1bn of capital investment have just got underway. The Mersey Gateway project (£660m) and a deep water berth at the Port of Liverpool (the ‘Liverpool 2’ project - £340m) are both strategic necessities from which further economic opportunities will emerge. In 2007 the Liverpool Cruise Terminal opened and is set to strengthen Liverpool not only as a major cruise destination (voted ‘Best UK Port of Call’ by Cruise Critic in 2013), but also as a point of embarkation, creating a new market for cruise travel serving the north of England.

The SUPERPORT initiative (described below) seeks to build on these successes by capturing market share from ports in the south of England.

A more resilient economy is emerging, where the successes of advanced manufacturing businesses such as Jaguar Landrover, Pilkington and Unilever are supporting around 34,000 people working in 3,000 firms in the core LCR and many more in the wider urban region. Life sciences, creative and digital industries and financial and professional services support a further 150,000 jobs.

Liverpool has the highest number of listed buildings outside of London and a World Heritage Site focussed on its Waterfront. The LCR is home to the Royal Liverpool Philharmonic, the National Museums Liverpool, Liverpool and Everton football clubs, Tate North, Open Golf venues Royal Birkdale and Royal Liverpool, and Aintree Racecourse, home of the Grand National. The legacy of the Beatles attracts visitors from across the globe. Liverpool supports a vibrant and growing visitor economy worth £3.4bn per annum. Liverpool is now the UK’s 6th largest tourist destination.

Economic Outlook

After a period of decline, LCR has seen its population start to grow (since 2008) and employment has seen an upsurge since 2011. GVA and productivity are also showing early signs of improvement. Updated baseline forecasts for the region to 2030 (excluding HS2 impacts) indicate positive growth trends with rises in population by 1.5%, employment by 5%, and productivity by 55%. Growth in GVA over the same period is forecast to be above national

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levels (69% vs 62%). Overlaying a ‘Policy-on’ scenario1 to reflect the impacts of known major developments taking place within the LCR impacts shows significant increases to these trends (see Figures 1 to 4).

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Gaps and challenges

Despite these positive trends, there remain some very significant challenges for the LCR. The LCR underperforms compared to others with noticeably lower levels of employment, productivity and business formation. In comparison to the national average, the Strategic Economic Plan for LCR1 cites a deficit of 18,500 businesses and 90,000 jobs and a gap of £8.5bn GVA. The region needs, and can readily accommodate, significant inward investment to rebalance and revitalise its economy. But the current rate of “wins” is inadequate, and the resources and structures in place to attract inward investment are insufficient to the task. Improving the capability of transport infrastructure (especially rail) is a key enabler to attracting inward investment and developing indigenous business.

Distribution and logistics

For close to a decade the LCR has recognised the importance of its port, airport, road, rail and logistics assets that extend out across the whole LCR – in combination these represent a strategically important freight and growth opportunity for the UK as a whole. The SUPERPORT 1 This reflects the expected effects of the City Region’s land use policies designed to facilitate development around key sites.

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Figure 1. Population of the Liverpool City Region Figure 2. Employment in the Liverpool City Region

Figure 3. Productivity of the Liverpool City Region Figure 4. GVA of the Liverpool City Region

initiative sets out to address this opportunity. It brings together projects, investment and activity across and beyond LCR to develop a multimodal freight hub to rival such international locations as New York, Dubai and Singapore. The vision for SUPERPORT is to bring together and integrate the strengths of the Ports, Airports and Freight Community to create a SUPERPORT for freight and passenger operations within the LCR that will become a key driver of its economy. It will create the most effective and cost efficient environment for freight cargo logistics and passenger transit in the UK. The initiative has already been successful in attracting investment from some of the world’s biggest businesses. When it opens in 2015 Liverpool2 will become the UK’s most centrally located deep water container terminal. Currently 90% of deep sea cargo enters the UK via the South, when 50% of the UK container market is actually closer to Liverpool (this is imbalance is further highlighted by the example of Indian trade illustrated in Figure 5). With the added capacity of Liverpool2, the expanded port facilities of Liverpool will have the potential to remove over 100 million lorry-miles per year2 from congested roads in the South East.

Figure 5: Indian trade entering the UK region

SUPERPORT has the potential to profoundly reshape the UK’s transport distribution and logistics networks, creating cost-efficient and carbon-efficient supply chains. An effective rail freight distribution capability will be essential to realise the potential of SUPERPORT, but this will require investment to provide new connections and additional capacity and capability in the rail network. A direct HS2 connection to Liverpool could help to provide this much needed capacity.

Passenger Rail

The LCR has an extensive passenger rail network, including an underground network that penetrates the heart of

Liverpool city centre. Lime Street main line station provides a terminus for regional passenger rail services operating to and from the east and for all longer distance services. Recent investment in the station frontage has created a fine gateway for rail passengers arriving in the heart of Liverpool. However, the rail system has some inherent weaknesses that will need to be addressed in order to provide the fully effective and efficient transportation system necessary to attract inward investors to the region and to support the travel growth that is anticipated to follow. These fall into three categories: capacity, connectivity and quality.

2 Source: Peel Ports - Liverpool

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Capacity Much of the rolling stock deployed in the region is of insufficient capacity to

accommodate peak levels of demand, resulting in potentially cramped and crowded conditions for commuters, although the North West electrification programme, will support the provision of more capacity on some services into Lime Street.

City centre stations, such as Liverpool Central station suffer congestion not only during the weekday peak periods, but also at weekends given the major flows generated by city centre retailing and major events (e.g. football, concerts, festivals, etc.).

Track and signalling layouts are a major constraint to increasing the frequency of passenger train services and to providing additional paths to accommodate new rail freight services.

Connectivity Liverpool’s connectivity to London and other core/key city regions in terms of direct

passenger train services compares unfavourably with peer group cities. The Northern Hub infrastructure scheme in Manchester will provide some welcome improvements, but there remains a considerable opportunity for improving the network of services operating to and from Liverpool.

The lack of compatible rail infrastructure (including W10 structure gauge to accommodate modern deep sea containers) and rail-linked facilities limits the ability for rail to service the region’s industries.

While much improved at some stations, there is further need to improve and enhance the integration of rail with other transport modes: with bus, with local walking and cycling routes and through the provision of additional park and ride facilities.

Quality The rolling stock on the Merseyrail Electrics network and also much of that deployed on

other regional services is old and does not offer the quality or performance of more modern rolling stock that rail users now expect.

. With aging infrastructure and rolling stock, performance could suffer leading to poor

punctuality and unreliable services. Although at present it is one of the best performing networks in the country, without investment sustaining this would be at considerable risk.

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A Strategic Vision for the Liverpool City RegionThe Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) was formed in 2012 and brings together public and private partners with a common vision of creating “a globally connected City Region delivering sustainable growth, opportunity and prosperity for people and businesses”. The LEP has developed a Growth Plan & Strategic Economic Plan1 for the LCR which aims to achieve three high level objectives:

Growth –in terms of absolute output (GVA) and jobs. Increased productivity - by being more innovative and effective in how business is done

and increasing competitiveness on the national and international stage. A rebalanced economy – with a reduced emphasis on public sector employment

through a renewed focus on creating private sector jobs.

Key to delivering the vision of a globally connected City Region, the LEP has identified four key objectives, all of which depend on interventions in the region’s transport (including rail) networks:

Deliver the SUPERPORT Action Plan (to 2020) – building on LCR’s port, airport, rail and logistics assets.

Invest in transport and key site infrastructure to capitalise on the LCR’s unique connectivity opportunity in the national context.

By 2023, to have a City Region Visitor Economy supporting 57,000 jobs and worth £4.3bn.

Develop transport infrastructure with improved connections to other core cities and a local network that ensures the efficient movement of people and goods maximising its contribution to a thriving economy.

The LEP has identified key development growth areas within and around the LCR expected within the next 30 years. The locations of these are shown in Figure 6. This highlights significant numbers of developments around the LCR, particularly in North Liverpool, along the Atlantic Corridor between Liverpool and Manchester, and at Ellesmere Port. Outside of the immediate area, sites in Preston, Wigan, Warrington, Chester and North Wales all have the potential to be large trip attractors. Investment in the LCR’s rail system will be critical to service these areas and a key enabler to the achievement of the LCR growth objectives. The port and distribution hubs will need rail connections sized to handle modern rail freight vehicles and network capacity to provide for a growing demand for rail freight paths in the timetable. Regional passenger services will need to offer the speed, capacity and quality necessary to meet the needs of commuters, business and leisure travellers in order to accommodate growth and capture a higher modal share. Increased connectivity will also require faster, more frequent services to more cities across the UK. This in turn will necessitate relief of infrastructure bottlenecks, expansion of rail electrification and sufficient modern rolling stock.

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Figure 6: Expected major development in the Liverpool City Region and wider hinterland

HS2 will bring London and the global connectivity offered by Heathrow Airport (via Old Oak Common) much closer to Liverpool with the prospect of considerable economic benefits for the LCR. But these benefits will only be fully realised if HS2 is integrated with a high quality, high capacity fast and frequent regional rail network. Specific details of HS2 are still at the planning stage, but the recent report of Sir David Higgins has highlighted the issue of poor

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connectivity in the North, not just between the region and London, but also east-west between Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Hull. He argues the case for the integrated planning of regional rail networks as key to realising the full potential of HS2 on the economy. It will also be essential that the benefits of HS2 to the LCR are fully recognised to ensure that Liverpool is firmly established on the UK’s high speed rail network.

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Rail in the Liverpool City RegionThe Liverpool City Region is served by an extensive rail network, which, with over 100,000 passenger journeys per day, is one of the most heavily used in the UK outside London7 . Liverpool’s urban rail system is a much more extensive and better integrated system than the rail networks that currently serve comparably sized cities, such as Leeds.

The core of the LCR commuter rail network is formed by the Merseyrail network, which comprises three lines. The two third-rail electric lines (the Northern Line and the Wirral Line) are comparatively well used by LCR’s population, having one of the highest rail mode shares in the country. This is a reflection of the strong local growth that has occurred following the innovation of the locally managed concession which was awarded to Serco-Abellio in 2003 for a 25-year term. Both of these lines operate through underground sections (opened in 1977) providing access to the heart of Liverpool city centre. The Wirral Line connects the city centre with the Wirral Peninsula via a tunnel under the Mersey. Merseyrail Northern and Wirral Line services are operated using Class 507 and Class 508 electric multiple units that date from the late 1970’s. The ‘City Line’ to the east of Liverpool comprises a number of local services that operate between the city and Blackpool, Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Airport and Crewe and serve the towns of St Helens, Widnes, Runcorn and Warrington. City Line services are operated by Northern Rail, a franchise let by the Department for Transport. Most are currently operated by diesel rolling stock dating from the 1980s, but some will benefit from conversion to electric operation by 2016 as part of the North West electrification programme.

In addition to the Merseyrail network, a number of other local services serve parts of the LCR. These include services between the Wirral and Wrexham (operated by Arriva Train Wales) and the Southport-Wigan and Ormskirk-Preston services (operated by Northern Rail).

Intercity services to London Euston are provided by Virgin Trains (1-2 trains per hour). There are also direct services to Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, York and Newcastle. There is also an hourly cross-country to Norwich via the East Midlands. There are currently no direct services from Liverpool serving North or South Wales, South or South West England or Scotland.

Connectivity

Thanks to the investment made in the 1970s in developing a cross-city network in Liverpool City Centre, most parts of the LCR benefit from a relatively high level of rail connectivity. However, with average speeds on many routes below 25mph and even less than 20mph on some, journey times are relatively uncompetitive with other modes.

Whilst frequent rail services operate to neighbouring Manchester (3 ‘fast’ trains per hour), services to other significant regional centres (e.g. Wigan, Preston, Blackpool and Manchester Airport) receive no more than an hourly service and with average speeds of typically around 35mph and thus are also uncompetitive with road.

Liverpool has benefited from the major upgrade of the West Coast Main Line and is now connected with London Euston every hour in just under 2¼ hours (average speed 88mph). By comparison, the journey time from Manchester and from Leeds to London are also very

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similar. However, these cities benefit from higher frequencies (every 20 minutes and 30 minutes respectively) which reflects the higher levels of demand on those routes.

Compared to other UK major cities Liverpool has comparably poorer city-to-city connectivity. Liverpool has direct train services to only 7 of the 11 other largest cities in Britain. By contrast, neighbouring Manchester has direct train services to all 12 of Britain’s largest cities and at an average frequency twice that of Liverpool as illustrated in Table 1 below.

Table1: Direct Train Services per Hour

From/To Liverpool Manchester

Birmingham 2 2

Bristol 1

Cardiff 1

Edinburgh 0.5

Glasgow 0.5

Leeds 2 4

Liverpool n/a 3

London 1 3

Manchester 3 n/a

Newcastle 1 1

Nottingham 1 1

Sheffield 1 2

Recent Trends

Despite the shortcomings of the LCR’s passenger rail services, rail patronage in Merseyside has been steadily growing in recent years. The growth in rail travel in the LCR has significantly outstripped rail growth in Great Britain in recent years and has grown faster than in Manchester, Birmingham (West Midlands), Newcastle (Tyne and Wear), West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire. During the last 10 years mode share of private cars in Liverpool city centre has been decline, whilst rail has seen a rising trend over the same period as illustrated in Figure 7 (the dip in 2012/13 was due to underground station closures for refurbishment).

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Figure 7: Liverpool City Centre Mode Share (%) AM Peak

Source: Merseyside Mode Share Surveys

There is a significant level of freight traffic using rail to access the Port of Liverpool and industries in the LCR. Key commodities carried by rail include intermodal, coal, automobiles, and metals:

Intermodal – Seaforth provides linkage to the UK rail network for shipping lines calling at the Port of Liverpool.

Coal – with traffic operating from the Liverpool Bulk Handling Terminal primarily serving Fiddlers Ferry power station (near Widnes).

Automobiles – growing levels of traffic generated from two major car production plants, one at Halewood (Jaguar/Land Rover) and one at Ellesmere Port (GM). An automobile terminal at Speke also forms a key point for imported cars to the region.

Metals - Dee Marsh receives a stable flow of three steel trains per day from South Wales. The Port of Liverpool also deals with metals for recycling and paper in addition to the intermodal traffic.

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HS2 and the potential benefits for the Liverpool City RegionThe UK Government is pressing ahead with High Speed 2 (HS2), a visionary project to create a modern and efficient high speed rail network for mainland Britain. This network will provide much needed additional rail capacity connecting the main urban areas of the UK along with a new North-South fast connection. Constructed to the latest international standards for high speed rail technology it will transform the connectivity between Britain’s largest cities. But the project is far more than just about going faster to bring cities closer together. HS2’s rationale is also driven by a pressing need to release capacity in the residual ‘classic’ network. Following the rapid growth in rail travel experienced over the last two decades, this is now reaching saturation leading to commuters experiencing severe crowding and no room left to accommodate additional passenger services and an increasing demand for freight by rail.

The Strategic Case for HS2 highlights the acute problems created by the capacity constraints of the current network and the forecast growth in demand for both passengers and freight and, most importantly, the consequences for stifling economic growth. ‘Improved connectivity, through reduced journey times, can help deliver additional benefits and more economic growth than comes from extra capacity alone. It can help re-balance the economy by stimulating and strengthening regional economies and help to make Britain more attractive in the global marketplace'8

HS2 – the project

While HS2 will be a new railway it will be fully integrated with the existing railway enabling through services to use the new lines and the existing ‘classic’ network and so serve a wide range of destinations. The project is being progressed in two phases with the first phase planned for completion by 2026 and the second phase following in 2033.

Phase One of HS2 will see a new high speed line constructed from Euston to north of Birmingham, where it will re-join the existing West Coast Main Line (WCML) allowing fast services to continue to destinations on the existing line including Manchester, Liverpool, Crewe, Preston and Glasgow. New high speed trains will also serve Birmingham city centre and an interchange designed to serve the wider West Midlands. At Old Oak Common in west London, a new interchange will be built connecting HS2 with Crossrail and the Great Western Main Line, providing a fast link with Heathrow Airport. Phase One will provide a hugely valuable addition to the national rail infrastructure.

The published proposals for Phase Two8 would see the Phase One line extended north to form a ‘Y’ network. One branch would reach the North West with a route into the centre of Manchester and a connection to the WCML north of Warrington. The second branch would be built from the West Midlands to the East Midlands and Yorkshire, to join the East Coast Main Line south of York. New stations are proposed in the city centres of Manchester and Leeds, with intermediate stations in the East Midlands at Toton and near Sheffield at Meadowhall. Liverpool would be served by trains that would use HS2 as far north as Crewe and then operate over the existing West Coast Main Line via Runcorn.

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Following his recent appointment as the new Chairman of HS2, Sir David Higgins set out his findings of his initial review of the project in his report ‘HS2 Plus’9. In his review, Higgins cites two main transport challenges for the country, the lack of capacity, particularly, but not exclusively south of Birmingham; and the poor connectivity in the North, not just between the region and London, but also east-west between Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Hull. He also concludes that the Government should accelerate Phase Two as soon as possible to take the line further north to a new transport hub at Crewe. This could be completed as early as 2027. He highlights that to fully exploit the unique opportunity that HS2 presents for the North, a regional approach is needed which will require more work on integrating HS2 into the existing rail network and the potential improvements to it. HS2 should be integrated with the plans that the region’s local authorities are making to regenerate their economies and communities and should form part of the effort to revitalise the northern economy as a whole.

HS2 will deliver significant journey time reductions. On completion of Phase One, current plans10 would see the journey time between Liverpool and London reduced from around 2hr 10min to 1hr 50min. By comparison Manchester would be within 1hr 40min of London and Leeds (served from Kings Cross) within around 2 hours. The plans for Phase Two8 would see further journey time reductions, but these would be larger for Manchester (1hr 08min from London) and Leeds (1hr 23min from London) than for Liverpool (1hr 35min). Whereas Manchester and Leeds would have a continuous dedicated high speed rail line between London and their respective city centres, Liverpool would continue to depend on the existing WCML route north of a connection with HS2 near Crewe. Furthermore, with the benefit of fully dedicated high speed rail infrastructure, Manchester and Leeds would also be able to benefit from the extended maximum train length of 400m permissible on HS2, allowing higher capacity trains to serve these routes. Clearly there is a risk that with a disparity between the service offer between London and Liverpool and that of some other cities such as Manchester and Leeds, Liverpool would be at a comparative disadvantage in the competition to attract inward investors and potential employers to its City Region.

However, implementation of the recommendation of Sir David Higgins for the early construction of HS2 Phase Two as far as a new hub at Crewe would help offset this disadvantage. LCR would be able to gain significant early benefits from HS2, whilst retaining competitive journey times relative to Manchester and Leeds. But even with a new HS2 hub at Crewe, the WCML north of Crewe would remain a capacity constraint and a critical impedance to growth in rail freight serving the ports and industries of the LCR.

The value of HS2 to the City Region

Lord Heseltine and Sir Terry Leahy in their report ‘Rebalancing Britain: Policy or Slogan’11

pressed the need for Government to ensure that Liverpool will be firmly on the HS2 map if it is to enjoy the much needed economic benefit - an indirect, slower or later link could badly damage local growth.

The Liverpool City Region Growth Plan and Strategic Economic Plan1 recognises HS2 as a major economic opportunity but also highlights that the economic impact can be increased significantly if its implementation better reflects the LCR opportunity. The plan recognises that

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SUPERPORT will require increased rail capacity for its full economic potential to be delivered and this can only be achieved by the LEP working closely with Government to identify what needs to be done and to then co-invest with Government so that opportunities are fully grasped.

Preparing for HS2

As the Bill for HS2 Phase One progresses under parliamentary scrutiny, the focus has shifted to HS2 Phase Two. In summer 2013 the High Speed 2 Growth Taskforce was created to advise the Government on how to maximise the return from the investment in HS2. The Taskforce recently published its findings and recommendations12. Their message was clear, HS2 represents much more than a railway. It presents an exciting and transformational opportunity, particularly for our cities in the Midlands and the North, to invest in our future economic growth. Government, local authorities, HS2 Ltd and UK businesses need to make the most of this unique opportunity and to be working together now in making the preparations necessary to realise the full potential of HS2. The Taskforce highlights the importance of ensuring that the HS2 Growth Strategy is integrated within the regional Local Plans and Strategic Economic Plans. They also emphasis the important interdependence between HS2 and the existing rail network and the need for a wider review of rail services to ensure effective connectivity with HS2 and to exploit released capacity including opportunities for growth for the rail freight industry.

The Taskforce also highlighted that extra capacity released by HS2 provides an opportunity to reconfigure services and better utilise the strategic location of Crewe to serve major centres in the North West such as Liverpool, Warrington and all the local stations which form part of the commute into the bigger cities, supporting regeneration in the process.

The LCR recognises the considerable potential of HS2 as an engine for growth, but with the detailed scope of the project still under development there is an opportunity for an integrated strategy where the development of the regional and national rail networks and HS2 are aligned with the objectives for the LCR. This approach will help to ensure that the economic opportunities for Liverpool are fully recognised in defining the final plans for HS2 Phase Two.

In preparing for deposit of the Parliamentary Bill for HS2 Phase One, the business case for the project was set out in a suite of documents that included a Strategic Case8 and an Economic Case13. However, the supporting analysis underpinning the business case included economic forecasts that drew on 2008 data for the LCR. As highlighted above, the economic outlook for the region has shifted positively in response to the recent transformational investments and evidenced by the 2011 census data which showed a somewhat more optimistic picture. In the light of this it was felt only appropriate to revisit the implications of HS2 for LCR as the case may have been considerably understated.

To take account of the latest economic forecasts and to help prepare that case, a recent study undertaken by Steer Davies Gleave examined the economic impact of HS2 on the LCR. The study considered a number of options that modelled different scenarios for HS2 service provision. These options included HS2’s current proposed service (for “Policy-On” and “Policy-

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Off” growth scenarios), an alternative service pattern that would omit calls at Stafford, and an extended high speed route into Liverpool.

The study found that HS2 services, as currently proposed by HS2 Ltd, should bring significant economic benefits to the LCR (estimated at around £1.2bn (PV 2010) over a 60 year period) and would be further enhanced should LCR realise its “Policy-On”3 growth aspirations. The study also found that the benefits of HS2 to LCR could be extended by operating both of the two Liverpool- London high speed services per hour via the HS2 route from Crewe, instead of via Stafford and the existing West Coast Main Line. These benefits would be further enhanced under the Higgins proposal for advancing the extension of HS2 to a hub at Crewe (adding £110m) and by bringing them sooner than currently proposed (adding £80m). Together these measures would add a further £0.2bn, bringing the total economic benefit to the LCR to around £1.4bn (PV 2010).

The study found that an extension of the high speed network directly into central Liverpool would bring further benefits (estimated at around £0.1bn (PV2010)), but further work would be needed to determine an acceptable value for money and affordability case for this option to be progressed.

The nature of the current HS2 proposition means that while it will release capacity on the southern section of the West Coast Main Line, it will not release rail freight capacity north of Crewe. The Strategic Case for HS2 is in part predicated on the benefits of the capacity released on the West Coast Main Line, including accommodating growing demand for intermodal freight traffic from the southern ports of Felixstowe, Thames Ports and Southampton. The development of SUPERPORT will increase the volume of inter-modal traffic passing through the LCR and if this is to travel by rail – the most economic and environmentally friendly way of moving containers throughout the country – attention needs to be given to the capacity and capability of rail links between the LCR and the capacity that will become available on the West Coast Main line.

An integrated approach to developing HS2 and the existing rail network with for the Liverpool City Region

As highlighted by Sir David Higgins in his ‘HS2 Plus’ report9, there is a need for an integrated approach through developing regional strategies that ensure that HS2 is integrated with the existing rail networks and the potential improvements to those networks.

HS2 alone, will not address many of the key constraints and issues facing the rail network for the LCR. In fact, with additional HS2 services operating over the West Coast Main Line north of Crewe, capacity for accommodating the anticipated growth in rail freight on this strategically important corridor will be in short supply. Economic growth in the LCR will also be contingent on improved rail infrastructure, to provide better links to the Port of Liverpool, faster and more frequent commuter services, greater capacity of the Merseyrail network to service Liverpool City Centre and more services connecting the LCR with other economic centres.

3 ‘Policy-On’ reflects the expected effects of the City Region’s land use policies designed to facilitate development around key sites.

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Therefore there is an urgent need to develop and deliver plans for the rail network that address the wider needs for rail, both passenger and freight.

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A Long Term Rail Strategy for the Liverpool City RegionWith rail forming one of the critical enablers to achieving the vision for growth for the LCR, there is a need for a strategic approach to its longer term development. On behalf of the LCR, Merseytravel has recently published a Long Term Rail Strategy5 that sets out a prioritised programme for investment in the region’s rail network, phased over the next four Control Periods to 2034 and a vision beyond to 2043. That strategy considers the key issues and constraints facing the LCR’s rail network today, many of which are identified in Network Rail’s Merseyside RUS14 and has taken account relevant features of the market studies that make up Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process New Reference15. The LTRS seeks to build beyond the programme of schemes already committed to deliver a rail network that offers the quality necessary to attract inward investment to the region and the capability of accommodating the growth that is expected to flow from an expanding economy.

Key issues and constraints

The LCR Long Term Rail Strategy identifies a number of key issues and constraints affecting capacity, connectivity and quality.

Capacity

There are a number of network capacity constraints within the LCR, particularly in Liverpool City Centre, that are hindering opportunities for growth and providing relief to peak period crowding.

Perhaps the most immediate of these constraints is at Liverpool Central station particularly on the Northern Line platforms where the site is severely constrained and, given the proximity of the station to Liverpool’s growing retail centre, severe overcrowding frequently occurs at weekends. The situation is further exacerbated by the current timetable arrangements that result in the Ormskirk and Kirkby services terminating at Liverpool Central and thus increasing the volume of interchange passengers. Until these constraints at Liverpool Central are addressed, the capacity of this station represents a major impediment to accommodating growth on the Merseyrail network.

There are also a number of operational and capacity constraints at Lime Street that would need to be addressed to future proof Lime Street’s role as a key HS2 destination. Opportunities to increase service levels are hampered by operational constraints due to the platform configuration, and the signalling and alignment of the track layout around the throat of the station.

The LCR Long Term Rail Strategy examines the effect of forecast passenger demand growth on the region’s rail network without further interventions on the network. The analysis indicates that by 2033 all lines in the LCR (with the sole exception of the Manchester route through Earlestown) will be experiencing peak loadings in excess of 100% of train service capacity, as illustrated in Figure 8.

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Figure 8: Percentage of seat filled in AM peak – forecast 2033

Source: Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail Strategy5

There are other bottlenecks beyond central Liverpool and many of these, such as the Chat Moss line between Liverpool and Earlestown and the West Coast Main Line (WCML) north of Crewe, are limiting opportunities to improve passenger services and accommodate growth in rail freight. The Network Rail Freight RUS16 identified the section of the WCML between Weaver Junction and Winsford as being one of the seven most important freight capacity gaps on the network.

Connectivity

Currently the LCRal rail network does not provide direct linkages to some key centres of population and employment. In particular, Liverpool’s long distance connectivity compares unfavourably with similar cities. There is currently only one fast off-peak service to London and there are no direct connections at all to Scotland, South and South West England and North and South Wales.

There are also a number of communities within or near to the LCR that do not have regular, direct access to Liverpool City Centre, such as Mid Wirral and West Lancashire.

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Despite direct rail connections across the border with North Wales, cross-border rail services are poorly catered for and there are no through-trains between Liverpool and North Wales Coast Line /Wrexham despite a desire to create a link between Liverpool John Lennon Airport and the area (i.e. through Liverpool South Parkway).

The absence of electrification on key routes has limited the opportunity for integrating timetables and operation of passenger services, particularly in relation to the routes between Liverpool, Manchester, and Wigan via St Helens, and between Chester and Crewe, Warrington, North Wales and Wrexham. Whilst this will be partially addressed by the electrification of the Chat Moss and St Helens routes now underway, it remains an issue on lines with no identified electrification programme including the Cheshire Lines Committee route between Liverpool, Widnes, Warrington and Manchester. However, the completion of the Chat Moss electrification could create an opportunity for one or two London services being routed via St Helens Junction to provide a boost to the town’s connectivity.

Another critical constraint to the growth of rail freight is the absence of a W10 gauge-cleared trans-Pennine route connected with the Port of Liverpool. This will be essential to accommodate the larger container dimensions of modern deep sea intermodal traffic. Network Rail aspires in the longer term to clear this route to the larger W12 gauge15.

Quality

The asset condition and capability of both infrastructure and rolling stock is an impediment to improving the quality of rail services offered for both passengers and freight shippers.

Merseytravel has a stated ambition of increasing the mode share of public transport by maximising the population in LCR and surrounding areas with access to good quality rail services5. This will require a step-change in the quality of the service provided on some lines, such as increasing service frequencies, reducing journey times, and improving the quality of rolling stock and other customer facing assets. There is also a high level of dependency on older diesel traction which compares unfavourably with modern electric traction in terms of performance, reliability and quality.

Opportunities to improve the services provided by Merseyrail Electrics are constrained by the size and capability of the rolling stock fleet that is now over 35 years old. Limited structural clearances necessitate a dedicated fleet of reduced profile rolling stock. However, replacement of these aging trains presents a unique once in a generation opportunity to achieve significant improvements to the Merseyrail network. New trains with better performance would offer the possibility of shorter journey times. Additional vehicles would offer more capacity and, if equipped with dual voltage capability, could allow an expanded network to be delivered. But new rolling stock would also necessitate investment in infrastructure modifications, including upgrading the traction power supply.

Committed rail investment serving LCR

In addition to HS2, a number of committed schemes are planned for delivery within the next 5-10 years. These schemes are expected to deliver a range of improvements to rail services in

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the LCR, particularly at Lime Street and on routes between Liverpool and Manchester as well as between Liverpool and Wigan. These will go some way towards addressing some of the issues and constraints identified above. The four key schemes are summarised below.

Northern Hub

The Northern Hub is a programme of targeted upgrades to the railway in the North West of England and Yorkshire, principally in the Manchester area. Currently scheduled to complete by 2019, this programme will deliver a step change in the provision of rail services in the North West, allowing up to 700 more trains to run each day and providing capacity for an additional 44 million passengers a year. Amongst many other benefits, this programme will deliver: new platforms at Manchester Piccadilly and Oxford Road and Manchester Airport, and the construction of the Ordsall Chord (enabling the operation of direct rail services from Piccadilly to Victoria), each of which will allow directly or indirectly enhanced inter-regional rail connectivity from Liverpool Lime Street and other stations in the City Region (e.g. Liverpool South Parkway, Widnes, St Helen’s Junction).

Electrification

Britain’s rail network is benefitting from an unprecedented level of investment in electrification, and Liverpool is set to benefit from this investment in the near future. Network Rail is currently electrifying a number of key rail routes across the North of England in order to improve the speed, performance and reliability of the railway as well as to reduce its impact on the environment.

The northern electrification programme will improve travel between key cities in the North including Manchester, Liverpool, Preston, Blackpool, Leeds and York, and is seen as vital in supporting the North’s long-term economic growth. The programme is due for completion by the end of 2018, with faster, higher capacity electric trains planned to be in introduced between Manchester Victoria and Liverpool, and Liverpool and Wigan, by December 2014.

The combination of the Northern Hub and trans-Pennine electrification unlocks a key bottleneck that will allow a range of service improvements, including shorter journey times, higher frequencies and new service patterns. The Northern Rail and Trans Pennine Express franchises are due to be re-let from February 2016 and will present an opportunity to exploit the opportunities created by the new infrastructure.

Trans-Pennine Express Service Level Increase

In May 2014 First Trans-Pennine Express started running an additional hourly service between Liverpool Lime Street and Newcastle via Manchester Victoria, Leeds, and York. This service has reduced the journey time between Liverpool and Manchester by 15 minutes and between Liverpool and Leeds by 20 minutes. It is being provided by Class 185 diesel units, which have been made available due to the recent transfer of Manchester Airport to Scotland services to new Class 350 electric units. This incremental initiative will help improve Liverpool’s connectivity with other parts of Northern England in advance of the full completion of the Northern Hub and the electrification programme.

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Lime Street Re-Signalling and Re-Modelling

Network Rail has committed to re-signal and re-model the approach to Lime Street by 2016. The work includes enhancing signalling between Edge Hill and Lime Street and remodelling crossovers on the Lime Street approach. The objective of this work is to enhance the capacity of the station and, potentially, allow up to two inter-city Pendolinos per hour to serve the station off-peak (although these services are not currently committed). It is envisaged that this work will need to accommodate plans for the introduction of HS2 services at this station. However, there will be a need for this project to go further if the capacity challenges of the future are to be satisfactorily addressed.

Setting out a prioritised Long Term Rail Strategy for LCR

The Long Term Rail Strategy for LCR (LTRS-LCR) provides a 20-year vision for rail infrastructure and services and sets out a prioritised package of schemes that will address the challenges facing LCR’s railways and provide a sustainable foundation for growth.

The LTRS-LCR provides a coherent vision for what is needed and how positive change can be achieved. There are interdependencies between these schemes and the potential benefits multiply through delivering them together. The package of schemes which are summarised below have been prioritised to ensure that resources are focussed at the most pressing needs of the region. The process by which these schemes have been developed and prioritised is detailed in the LTRS5.

Many of the schemes are still at the early stages of development and further work is required to define them as specific projects and to establish a demonstrable business case.

The prioritised schemes identified in the LTRS-LCR are summarised below.

1. Improving National Passenger and Freight Connections

It is considered imperative that LCR be better connected to the national passenger and freight networks. At present, no other core English city has fewer direct connections to other core cities (and only Cardiff in Britain has fewer). This is despite strong cultural links with Glasgow, other northern cities, and towns and cities in Wales. In terms of freight, the Port of Liverpool is a key asset for the whole country, particularly the north of England, and has the potential to reduce reliance on southern ports, reducing the impact of road haulage. The port’s owners (Peel Ports) have significant aspirations to increase both the absolute capacity of the port and the proportion of freight carried to and from it by rail, however this will only be possible with investment in infrastructure, including better links to the port from the national network.

Merseytravel wishes to address this shortfall in national connectivity by promoting enhanced links to other core cities including Glasgow, Edinburgh, Leicester, Bristol and Cardiff.

In particular, Merseytravel has an ambition for new services between:

• Liverpool Lime Street and Glasgow Central / Edinburgh Waverley;

• Liverpool and Leicester via Crewe and Derby;

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• Southport and Leeds via Manchester Victoria and the Calder Valley.

Additionally, there are aspirations to increase the inter-peak frequency of Liverpool - London services from one to two trains per hour and extension the London Euston to Crewe inter-urban service to Liverpool Lime Street. The delivery of improvements to the Halton Curve (described below) will also open up opportunities to significantly improve connectivity between the LCR, West Cheshire and Wales and possibly allow services to run further south to Cardiff/Bristol.

A significant part of this package is a resolution of the conflict between freight and passenger services, and a key scheme is to provide a grade separated junction between the Bootle Branch and its feeder lines to allow freight services access without hindering passengers. This would have clear advantages in separating passenger and freight traffic. It should be noted however, that the ongoing Northern Ports study is looking at network requirements for freight services into and out of Liverpool and will make further recommendations regarding the provision of adequate capacity.

2. Enabling Growth on the Merseyrail Network

The Class 507 and 508 electric units that currently operate on the Northern and Wirral lines are amongst the oldest units in operation on the national network. Merseytravel is considering replacing this fleet with higher capacity, faster accelerating units with future possible provision for dual-voltage if required. New trains would offer the possibility of shorter journey times and with additional vehicles, more capacity and an expanded network could be delivered. But new rolling stock would also necessitate investment in depot facilities and modifications to infrastructure, including upgrading the traction power supply and signalling. As an interim measure it is possible that some or all units will be refurbished prior to their replacement.

3. Increasing Capacity in Liverpool City Centre

Responding to one of the most critical future issues for the rail network in LCR, this package aims to alleviate the capacity situation at Central Liverpool stations in a number of ways. By a combination of facilitating greater use of other stations in the City Centre, particularly Moorfields which is underused outside of peak, times, and a comprehensive capacity enhancement scheme at Liverpool Central, the platform crowding issues at certain times of the day are to be brought under control. Concurrently the creation of a Liverpool South Parkway Turnback facility and other rail capacity increasing measures will allow a higher proportion of trains into Central to pass through. Thirdly, rail and passenger capacity enhancements at Lime Street will ensure that it is ready and waiting for HS2 in 2026, and able to accommodate the longest trains to ensure that the city can compete at the highest level.

4. Improving Connectivity on the City Line

Northern Rail currently operates three local services under the City Rail brand between Liverpool and Wigan, Warrington and Manchester. Merseytravel aspires to improve the City Line services and bring them to a similar level of connectivity and frequency as the Merseyrail

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Northern and Wirral lines. The electrification of the Manchester/Liverpool and Manchester/Wigan lines will enable the introduction of electric rolling stock, which will deliver service quality and journey time improvements.

Merseytravel also aspires to significantly improve connectivity between the City Lines and Northern Line. Currently, City Line services only interchange with the Northern Line at Liverpool South Parkway. By connecting the City and Northern lines via the Wapping Tunnel, two simultaneous problems can be resolved: firstly the lack of southern destinations on the Northern Line which limits the ability to turn back services anywhere apart from Central can be reduced by running services south of Central through the Wapping Tunnel and onto the City Line; secondly the lack of ability to run cross-city services can be resolved by connecting key City, Northern and Wirral Line destinations. In the future services will run freely between the lines and will extend towards Liverpool Airport and Speke with possible extensions to Runcorn.

5. Facilitating a High Quality Service on the Cheshire Lines Committee (CLC) Line

The Cheshire Lines Committee Line is one of the three branches of the City Line, which serves communities in South West Liverpool, Widnes and Warrington. Unlike the other two branches of the City Line, there are no committed schemes at this stage to electrify CLC Line to Warrington. However, Merseytravel aspires to improve service quality and frequency on this line and bring it to a similar level of quality as the Northern and Wirral Lines. Merseytravel therefore proposes that the CLC Line should be electrified (to AC voltage) and served by high quality electric rolling stock.

The rail network of the future as envisaged in this strategy includes a high quality, high frequency clockface service on the CLC rail route between Liverpool and Manchester via Warrington. This would be facilitated by electrification, capacity increases and extension of the Merseyrail services beyond Hunts Cross to Warrington Central and beyond, running alongside faster inter-regional services.

6. Connecting via the Halton Curve

The LCR currently has poor connectivity with Wales and the Welsh Marches, with the exception of the hourlyservice on the Borderlands Line. The loss of these services is partly because there is no direct two-way access between Liverpool and the North Wales line, except via the Wirral Line at Chester (which is inappropriate for long distance services).

Merseytravel is therefore proposing that the Halton Curve, a short section of single track line that connects the WCML Liverpool Branch to the Chester/Warrington line, is restored.

This will enable the LCR to be better connected with Cheshire West and Chester, Wrexham and North Wales, providing direct access to South Liverpool and Liverpool Airport from a key area of latent demand. When the long-term aspiration for longer distance journeys to and from Cardiff and the North Wales coast via Halton Curve is also considered, the justification for the scheme is enhanced, and this is reflected in the increasing level of support for the scheme from the Welsh Government and from Cheshire West and Chester Council.

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7. Improving Connections from Chester and Ellesmere Port

The key driver for this package is the long term aspiration to connect east and south Wirral better with the national rail network at Crewe, a vision that is even more important if Crewe were to become an hub for HS2 as envisaged. In the shorter term, an electrification of the Chester-Crewe line offers the prospect of extending Merseyrail services beyond Chester, reducing operational constraints, and offering connections to a nationally important hub on the West Coast Mainline.

There are also aspirations to improve connectivity between Liverpool, Ellesmere Port and communities between Ellesmere Port and Runcorn. One proposal that could deliver these improvements is to enhance shuttle services between Ellesmere Port and Helsby. A more ambitious long term proposal, which would require additional electrification, would be to extend Merseyrail Wirral Line services from Ellesmere Port to Warrington.

8. Serving New Development on the Ormskirk – Preston line

Merseytravel is proposing that the line between Ormskirk and Preston is electrified and incorporated into the Northern Line. This would improve connectivity between Preston and Liverpool as well as generate environmental and operational benefits. In particular, this initiative would serve new development in West Lancashire and South Preston.

9. Connecting to Skelmersdale and New Development in Wigan

Skelmersdale is a new town with a growing population located in West Lancashire to the North East of Liverpool, but is one of the largest towns in England without a rail station. The strategy proposes that the Northern Line is extended from Kirkby to a new station at Skelmersdale, which could become the new terminus for Wigan-Kirkby services. This will significantly improve the accessibility from Skelmersdale to opportunities with Liverpool and the wider LCR and will help encourage mode shift from car to rail. There would also be the option of extending electrification through to Wigan, enabling the extension of the Northern Line from Kirkby/Skelmersdale to Wigan.

10. Enhancing the Borderlands Line

The Borderlands Line is currently operated by diesel units on a two hourly basis between Wrexham Central and Bidston (a suburb of Birkenhead). The aim of this scheme is to enhance the scope of services to improve direct access to key employment sites at Deeside, Queensferry and Shotton for residential communities in mid and South Wirral and also to significantly improve access to Liverpool City Centre from locations such as Heswall, Neston, Buckley, and Mold.

A number of options are under consideration. These include running diesel services to Birkenhead, increasing service frequency, and electrifying part or all of the line. An electrified solution could offer scope to fully incorporate the line into the Wirral Line. The benefits of these improvements would be to attract more people to Merseyrail, to support access to employment along the Borderlands corridor, and to deliver environmental and operational benefits.

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11. Utilising Freight Lines for Passenger Usage

There is a long term aspiration to improve access to the rail network for key latent markets within inner Liverpool. Two lines that are currently used exclusively by freight services have been identified as having potential to be used passenger services to meet this aspiration. These are the Bootle Branch, which carries existing freight services between Edge Hill / Wavertree and the Port of Liverpool, and the North Mersey Branch, which is a mothballed line between Aintree on the Ormskirk line and Bootle New Strand on the Southport line.

Conversion of the North Mersey Branch route would allow Ormskirk services to be divided between the two routes, and provide an enhanced service to Bootle and Bank Hall stations. Combined with a potential flyover at Sandhills for Southport services, the scheme could have potential line capacity improvements for Ormskirk services, allowing a larger number of trains per hour to serve this and onward destinations.

In contrast, usage of the Bootle Branch by passenger services would provide for the first time in the modern era, a direct rail connection to parts of North Liverpool including Fairfield, Newsham Park, Tuebrook and Anfield, potentially providing an additional mode of travel for access to Anfield and Goodison Park football stadia on match days.

There are a number of options for how these services could be configured and integrated with the rest of the Merseyrail network, which include the potential integration of the Wapping Tunnel into a new circular route serving both Liverpool Central and Lime Street stations.

Both of these schemes are contingent on the findings of the Northern Ports Study.

12. Selected New Stations

A number of stakeholders are supporting proposals for new stations in response to planned new developments, new markets and/or areas of perceived latent demand. An initial shortlist of proposed new stations in the LCR is shown in Table 2.

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Table 2: Shortlisted proposed new stations in the LCR:

Line Station Market

Bootle Branch Anfield Serves residential area and potentially

Liverpool/Everton Football Clubs

Bootle Branch Edge Lane Serves residential area and retail park

Bootle Branch Tuebrook Serves residential area

Borderlands Line Beechwood Serves mid-Wirral Moreton area

Borderlands Line Deeside Industrial Park Serves employment zone

Borderlands Line Woodchurch Serves mid-Wirral Prenton area

CLC Line Tarbock Interchange Serves motorway based Park and Ride catchment from

M62, M57, A5300 and A562 corridors

CLC Line Warrington West Serves residential area and employment zone

Halton Curve Runcorn Beechwood Serves residential area and employment zone

Northern Line Burscough Interchange Provides interchange between Ormskirk – Preston and

Southport – Wigan lines;

Northern Line Kirkby Headbolt Lane Serves residential area and employment zone

Northern Line Liverpool St James Serves new Creative Quarter in City Centre

Northern Line Maghull North Serves residential area and employment zone

Northern Line Skelmersdale Serves residential area and employment zone

St. Helens Line Carr Mill Serves residential area

13. Improvements to facilitate rail freight growth

The strategy’s position on rail freight is contingent on the outcomes of the ongoing Northern Ports study work commissioned by Network Rail and supported by Merseytravel, since this will identify the likely requirements for freight.

The strategic value of improving access for rail freight on the northern east-west axis is fully recognised by Rail North partners who are working closely together to ensure that an expanding role for rail freight forms a key part of a long term rail strategy.

Clearance of the routes connecting the Seaforth container terminal to accommodate W10 gauge intermodal traffic will be an essential to facilitate growth in rail freight servicing the Port of Liverpool. Given the work involved, it would be prudent to examine the case to clear these lines to the larger W12 gauge for future proofing.

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The freight line between Bootle and Wavertree provides a critical link for rail freight services between the Port of Liverpool and the wider region. The capacity of this railway is severely limited by current signalling arrangements. A key strategic scheme, currently phased for later in the process but potentially to be moved forward based on the findings of the Northern Ports study, is a high level flyover between the West Coast Mainline Liverpool Branch (at Wavertree) and the Bootle Branch. This would potentially remove a significant conflict for freight at Wavertree junction and improve access for rail freight to and from the Bootle Branch.

Delivery and prioritisation

Figure 9 highlights the envisaged phasing and priority of the LTRS schemes. All are phased so as to be delivered within the four control periods that make up the next 20 years. This ties in with the timescales of both HS2 Phase 2 and SUPERPORT, both due for full delivery by the end of Control Period 8. With HS2 Phase 2 set to increase traffic on the WCML north of Crewe, it will be key for the success of SUPERPORT to have the capacity available to accommodate additional freight paths.

Figure 9: Scheme Phasing and Prioritisation

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ConclusionsSuccessful economic growth will not occur without intervention. Lord Heseltine, in his Growth Review ‘No Stone Unturned’17 recognised the vital importance and capability of major infrastructure projects to improve competitiveness and drive growth. The LCR is well placed to benefit from the nation’s largest infrastructure project, HS2. The project is set to create a step change in connectivity for the cities within its reach, which in turn represents a huge opportunity for attracting inward investment. But how this mega project is delivered will be key. The recent reports of Sir David Higgins9 and the HS2 Growth Task Force12 have highlighted the need for integrated planning of regional rail networks to realise full potential of HS2 on the economy.

The potential economic value of HS2 to the LCR is considerable. A recent study has estimated that on completion of HS2 Phase Two the economic value to the LCR could be around £1.2bn4. But with some modifications, such as those recently suggested by Sir David Higgins, this could be increased to around £1.4bn. The study also concluded that extension of the high speed network into the centre of Liverpool would bring further economic benefit, but further work would be needed to determine an acceptable value for money and affordability case for this option to be progressed.

In this report we have highlighted that improving the capacity, connectivity and quality of the LCR’s rail network will be as essential to supporting and stimulating economic growth as HS2 itself. Furthermore, the HS2 Growth Task Force12 emphasised the important interdependence between HS2 and the existing rail network and the need for a wider review of rail services to ensure effective connectivity with HS2 and to exploit released capacity, including opportunities for growth for the rail freight industry to support the development of SUPERPORT and a network of cost-efficient and carbon-efficient supply chains.

With this in mind, Merseytravel in partnership with Network Rail and the wider rail industry has embarked on developing a Long Term Rail Strategy that aims to ensure that the railway, and the economic success of the LCR, is able to grow in an unhindered fashion, and that rail travel is able to be a facilitator rather than a barrier to this growth. The economic benefits will not only be felt at a regional and sub-regional level, there will be national benefits too, such the value of an expanding freight and logistics port servicing industries across the nation.

The emerging strategy, as outlined in this document, sets out an integrated package of interventions that will address the challenges facing LCR’s railways and to ensure that resources are focussed on the addressing the most pressing issues that are key to meeting the aspirations of the of the LCR’s Economic Plan.

4 Present Value at 2010 prices over 60 years

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Appendix A

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1 Liverpool City Region Growth Plan & Strategic Economic Plan (LCR Local Enterprise Partnership

(LEP) , 2012) 2 City Centre Strategic Investment Framework (Liverpool Vision, 2012)3 HS2 and benefits for LCR (Steer Davies Gleave, May 2014), commissioned by Merseytravel on

behalf of the LCR4 Merseyrail Electrics, 5 year strategy (Merseytravel)5 LCR: Long Term Rail Strategy (Mott Macdonald, May 2014), commissioned by Merseytravel on

behalf of the LCR6 The LCR Freight Study (MDS Transmodal, February 2014)7 Merseyrail Corporate Information ( Merseyrail website, as at May 2014) 8 HS2 Strategic Case (HS2 Ltd, October 2013) 9 HS2 Plus – A Report by Sir David Higgins, Chairman HS2 Ltd (HS2 Ltd, March 2014 ) 10 HS2 Project Specification (HS2 Ltd, October 2013) 11 Rebalancing Britain: Policy or Slogan? LCR Building on its Strengths (RT Hon the Lord Heseltine

and Sir Terry Leahy, October 2011)12 High Speed 2: Get Ready (HS2 Growth Taskforce, March 2014 ) 13 HS2 Economic Case (HS2 Ltd, October 2013) 14 Network Rail Merseyside Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS ) (Network Rail, March 2009) 15 Network Rail Long Term Planning Process – Market Studies (Network Rail, 2013)16 Network Rail Freight Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS ) (Network Rail, March 2007) 17 No Stone Unturned in pursuit of Growth (Lord Heseltine of Thenford CH, October 2012