Merseyside Development Update

Sebastian Tibenham & Richard Cook

Overview of the City Region Economy

• 1.5million peoplePopulation

• 628,000 jobsEmployment

• £29.5billionEconomic

output

Challenges for the City Region

◦ Population growth

◦ Entrepreneurship

◦ Skills

◦ Employment growth

◦ Productivity

◦ Delivering a Strategic Planning Framework

◦ Strategic Housing & Employment Land Market Assessment

Job Growth Scenarios, 2012-37

Scenario 1

(SHELMA

Baseline)

Scenario 2

(SHELMA

Growth)

Scenario 3

(Pegasus High

Growth)

0.3%

p.a.

0.7%

p.a.

0.9%

p.a.53,000 jobs

127,000 jobs

160,000 jobs

LCR Annual Housing Requirement

• RSS planned from 2003-21 (revoked)

• Only Knowsley & Sefton up to date Local Plans + allocate sites

• Council evidence shows highest need

• SHELMA: GL Hearn for LCR

• Government’s Standard Calc: Right Homes in the Right Places.

• Standard Calc based on Household Projections and uplifts on affordability.

• 2,024 = Av. completions since 2012/13

• 3,420 = starts in 2016-17

Liverpool

• RSS - Regional Centre focus (net fig)

• UDP planned up to 2001 and for 23k homes but demolition of 27k

• Emerging Local Plan someway off

• SHELMA and Standard not far apart

• City Council have been delivering average of c.1,400 dpa since 2003

• Completed 2,029 in 2015/16

• Other LPAs may have to pick up slack

• Demonstrates importance of LCR Plan

Sefton

• RSS restricted supply (lowest).

• Local Plan adopted Apr 17 (highest)

• Allocates some sites / GB release but..

• ..immediate review still necessary.

• Affordability critical issue.

• Hence Standard Calc closer to recently adopted figure

• SHELMA shows much lower figure

Knowsley

• Recently Adopted Plan Jan 2016.

• Inspector’s comments on low figure:

• + out-migration partly due to limited housing choice;

• + elderly population,

• Significant consequences:

• loss of spending power

• slower growth of local businesses

• extra pressure on health services.

• Local Plan identifies GB housing sites!

Halton

• Local Plan adopted 2013

• Applied RSS figure with some backlog

• Doesn’t identify sites.

• No completion data 15/16 & 16/17

• Failed to deliver?

• 375 Av. Between 03/04 to 14/15

• Carried out GB Study in 2015

St Helens

• Local Plan adopted Oct 2012

• Post NPPF but RSS wasn’t revoked

• Didn’t identify sites

• Draft LP welcomed

• GB release + good quantum of safeguarded land

Wirral

• Unitary Development Plan (2000)

• Housing Policies not saved

• Emerging Local Plan someway off

• Previous Draft focus on W.Waters

• Council’s evidence (875-1235 dpa)

• 340 = Av. Completions since 03/04;

• Affluent areas / Affordability issues

• Deprived areas / Regeneration

• Green Belt release required

Pegasus thoughts for LCR◦ Very excited about the prospects within the LCR and potential for our new office

◦ Devolution Deal = handback control, effective spending, fast-track growth?!

◦ Mayor’s Success = economic growth and quality of life?!

◦ Access to jobs and good quality housing

◦ Strategic Planning Role = Difficult Political Decisions

◦ Draft LCR SHELMA presents lowest housing requirement figures (ever)

◦ 1.1% jobs growth up to 2026 but 0.3% thereafter

Seb Tibenham / Richard Cook

Suite 4b, 113 Portland Street, Manchester, M1 6DW

E sebastian.tibenham@pegasusgroup.co.uk / richard.cook@pegasusgroup.co.uk

T 0161 393 3399