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Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2...

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Second Quarter Results 2014 Investor presentation Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results 2014 Investor presentation Christian Clausen, President and Group CEO Berenberg European Conference USA 2015 Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO
Transcript
Page 1: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Second Quarter Results 2014Investor presentation

Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results 2014Investor presentationChristian Clausen, President and Group CEO

Berenberg European Conference USA 2015 Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO

Page 2: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s currentviews with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. AlthoughNordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements arereasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have beencorrect. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-lookingstatements as a result of various factors.

Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limitedto: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate, (iii) changein the regulatory environment and other government actions and (iv) change in interest rateand foreign exchange rate levels.

This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stockexchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes comparedto the date when these statements were provided.

Disclaimer

2 •

Page 3: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

The relationship bank business model has delivered

14

3 •

Page 4: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

4

Nordea has a unique position in the Nordics

Note: Illustration excludes, Baltic's (406,700 total customers) and Russia (67,000 total customers)

1: Ranking in Nordic region

Sweden

Norway

Finland

Denmark

Relationships (m)

Market position

Superior customer franchise Global capabilities on par with international peers1

#1-2

TotalNordea

10.2 #1 #1

Capital Markets Asset Management

Life & Pension Private Banking

#1

#1

#1

#1

Retail Customers Corporates & Institutions

4.2 #2-3

0.9 #2

2.9 #1-2

1.8 #2

#1-2

#2

#1

Market position

Page 5: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

5

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2012 2013 2014 2015E*

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

Pro-longed period of low growth and interest rates continued

• EU economy lacks drivers, expansionary monetary policy

• Pressure on deposit margins, lower funding costs

• Slow recovery and increasing geopolitical risk

• Limited volume growth and increasing focus on asset quality

• Significant FX impact in 2014 on income and costs

• Current FX-rates indicate similar negative impact also in 2015

GDP Interest rates FX**

Q3 14Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14

EUR/SEK(+5%)

EUR/CHF(-15%)

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

Euribor 3m

Stibor 3mSweden

Norway

Denmark

Finland

*Nordea estimate**Indexed, 1.1.2014=1

EUR/USD (-18%)

EUR/RUB(+26%)

Q1 15Q3 14Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q2 15

Page 6: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

108 109 109 108 103

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

302 305 308 309 311

172 172 171 175 172

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

Lending volumes Deposit volumes

Net interest margin and volumes

• Blended margin down 5 bps to 103 bps

• Slightly improving lending margins

• Pressure on deposit margins

• Lending volumes up 3% y-o-y*

COMMENTS

* Excluding repos and FX

LENDING AND DEPOSIT VOLUMES*, EURbn

6 •

BLENDED NET INTEREST MARGIN DEVELOPMENT, BPS

Page 7: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

4429

1738

33

1955

33

23

5328 28

• All time high AuM at EUR 290bn

• Record high net inflow of EUR 7.2bn

• Continuous strong and well diversified inflow

• High customer interest in balancedfunds – 53% of net sales

• Nordea Stable Return Fund has been the best-selling fund in Europe in the beginning of 2015

• 72% of composites outperformed benchmark over a 3-year period

Strong AuM growth with balanced risk levels in customer savings

AUM DEVELOPMENT, EURbn COMMENTS

238.7248.3 254.5 262.2

290.0

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

AUM FUNDS SPLIT, %

Funds AuMQ1/14

Funds AuMQ1/15

Net sales Performance

Balanced

Equities

Fixed incomeand MM

7 •

EUR 96.5bn EUR 132.1bn

Page 8: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

237 262 225335 340

174 9466

32

304411

356291

367

644

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

Net fair value

NET FAIR VALUE DEVELOPMENT, EURm

• Supporting corporate and institutional customers to manage their risks

• Customer areas up from strong previous quarter

• High activity in capital markets

Customer areas Other areas

COMMENTS

8 •

Page 9: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Expenses under solid control

TOTAL EXPENSES*, EURm COMMENTS

* Excluding non-recurring items

• Cost/income ratio improved 520 bps to 43.6%

• Costs are down 3.4% in local currencies and excluding variable pay

• Staff costs up 3% in local currencies

• Higher variable pay and pension expenses

• Other expenses down 12%

• Cost programme delivering according to plan

9 •

756 749 728 758 777

426 390 378 416 363

55 57 6653 44

1 237 1 196 1 1721 227 1 184

Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15

Staff costs

Depreciations

Other expenses

Page 10: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

10 *Portfolio of total loans to the public, excluding reverse repurchase agreements

Finland Russia

Oil Danish agriculture

• Slight improvement in household and corporate PD’s

• Loan losses at moderate level of 16 bps, down from 17 bps

• Slow growth but underlying macro conditions are stable

• Credit exposure mainly towards large int’l Russian, and Nordic, corporates

• 89% of credit portfolio in USD or EUR - financing large Russian corporates’ international operations

• Loan losses are at low levels – limited risk on increased loan losses

• Limited risk of increased loan losses, stress tests performed on customer level

• Likely negative effect on Norwegian economy, mitigated by lower interest rates, weaker NOK and sovereign oil fund spending

• Agriculture sector affected by world market price pressure; negative effect on crop, milk and pork prices

• Polarisation between strong and weak farmers

21% of portfolio* 2% of portfolio

2% of portfolio 2% of portfolio

Special attention areas

Page 11: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

11

CET1 ratio build-up, %

Nordea capital considerations

* Countercyclical buffer only applied for Sweden, in accordance with Swedish FSA Memorandum on Capital Requirement for Swedish banks (Feb 17, 2015)** In the Swedish FSA Memorandum on May 11, 2015 (Adjusted requirement on the assessment of capital requirements from three significant risk types), the

Swedish FSA published the final methods for assessing requirements for three different risk types. The CET1 requirement for Nordea based on these methods is estimated to 0.7%. Note that individual Pillar 2 CET1 requirements for other risks are estimated and agreed bilaterally with the Swedish FSA in the SREP and can vary over time. In the Swedish FSA Memorandum on Capital Requirements for Swedish Banks (Feb 17, 2015) a standardised CET1 value of 1.5% was used for other Pillar 2 risks.

10.0

Pillar1 Swedish & Norwegian Mortgage

Risk Weight floor

1.1

Counter-cyclical Buffer*

(0-2.5%)

0.2

14.80.8

CET1 level as per

Swedish FSA*

Current Manage-

mentbuffer

Pillar 2 (IRRBB, pension,

conc risk)**

0.7

Pillar 2Systemic

Risk Buffer

2.0

0.8

Pillar 2 (other)**

1.5 15.6

NordeaQ1/15

Page 12: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Delivering on the 2015 plan - Progress in summary

• CET 1 capital ratio up 100 bps to 15.6%

PROGRESS ON NORDEA FINANCIAL PLAN 2015 IN Q1/15 VS Q1/14

CET1 capital ratio

Risk exposure amount

Income growth

Costs

Loan losses

RoE

• Impact from capital management of EUR

31bn since 2013 of which 1bn in the quarter

• Income up 11%

• Cost programme delivering according to plan

• Loan loss ratio 14 bps

• RoE up 290 bps to 14.3%

12 •

Simplification • Progressing according to plan

Page 13: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Strategic priorities 14

Page 14: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

14 •

SIMPLIFICATION

Three transforming drivers for the banking industry

Balance sheetregulations

Operational regulations Digitalisation

Not over yet More to come Behaviour changing

Page 15: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Fewer, more flexible core products

Simplification of customer data

Simplification will be the lever in our transformation

15 •

Investment in new IT platforms

Page 16: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

16

Nordea strategic priorities

Improved income mix and growth

Continued cost efficiency

Disciplined capital management

Stringent risk management

Strategic priorities

Build on global product capabilities and superior Nordic

distribution power

Sustain actively managedportfolio with low volatility

1

2

3

Leverage on Pan-Nordic platforms and scale

opportunities

Page 17: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Retail Banking – Household

Branch optimisation and cash removal

695

238

992

718

Cash locationsBranch locations

-30%

-67%

17 •

Improved income mix and growth

Continued cost efficiency

• Increase share of wallet

• Mortgage growth with stable margins

• Strengthen online service, sales and advice

• Branch optimisation andcash removal

• Product and service clean-up and simplification

• Process automation/consolidation

• IT simplification/develop future platforms for full economies of scale

Page 18: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

* Year-end 2011 compared to year-end 2014

Retail Banking – Corporate

Volume development 2012-2014*

Lending REA

-10%

-23%

18 •

Improved income mix and growth

• Increase share of wallet

• Active customer selection to shift business mix

• Mitigation of negative interest rates through actions towards “Professional depositors”

Disciplined capital management

• Improved quality of existing customers (financial strength, collateralisation)

• Continued improvements of capital management

• Strengthened risk management models

• Cross-sales of capital light products

Page 19: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

SOO = Shipping, Oil and Offshore* Share of important relationships (%, y-axis) vs. Quality index score (x-axis)

Wholesale Banking – CIB and SOO

0

25

50

75

100

(40) 0 40 80

Gre

enw

ich

Surv

ey* Nordea

Peer 2

Peer 1

Peer 3

Peer 4

Peer 5

Strong large corporate franchise

2012 2014

Fee

&

com

mis

sion

inco

me +15%

19 •

Improved income mix and growth

• Increase share of wallet, customer selection to shift business mix

• Accelerated shift from lending to capital market financing/syndications

• Strengthening of advisoryvalue propositions

Disciplined capital management

• Active business selection withfocus on profitability

• Management of low yielding relationships

• Agency/intermediation role,optimised rating models/AIRB

Page 20: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Improved income mix and growth

• Selective strengthening of international distribution • New York equities distribution

• Improve competence pool in select markets and products

Continued cost efficiency

• Highly cost-efficient operation

• Acceleration to e-markets

• New simplified payment platform

• Further long term efficiencies expected in line with Group Simplification deliveries

C/I ratio of Capital Markets, FY2014*

36

48

67 6868 68 72 72 7579 80 83

88

Nordea Nordic and International peers

*Best proxy to Nordea CMP used as benchmark. All ratios calculated in local currencies.

WB – Capital Markets & Transaction Services

20 •

Page 21: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

*External principles

Wealth Management

62 60 5650

2011 2012 2013 2014

39 38 3632

2011 2012 2013 2014

% C

ost /

Inco

me

in P

BB

p C

ost /

AuM

-19%

-18%

Pursuit of scale and profitable growth

RO

E* in

L&

P

2013 2014

12.5%16.7%

+4.2

21 •

Improved income mix and growth

• Strengthen sales, advisory and service excellence

• Grow internationally through Distribution Partners

• Develop digital offerings

• Leading retirement offering

Continued cost efficiency

• Benchmarking with global best practices

• Scalable and reliable IT platforms

• Performance culture

Page 22: Second Quarter Results 2014 - Nordea Berenberg- E… · 5/20/2015  · Q1 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15Q3 14 Q2 15 Q1 15. 108 109 109 108 103 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 ... Volume

Second Quarter Results 2014Investor presentation

Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results 2014Investor presentationChristian Clausen, President and Group CEO

Berenberg European Conference USA 2015 Torsten Hagen Jørgensen, Group CFO


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