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Section 3Introduction and Overview

of Course

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Introduction – Forecasting Programs

The process of developing, operating, and improving an air quality (AQ) forecasting program

Need for an AQ Forecast

Developa Program

Operatethe Program

Revisethe Program

DataCollection

ForecastPreparation

ForecastCommunication

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Overview of CourseCourse Content:

1. Acknowledgments2. Executive Overview3. Introduction and Overview of Course4. What Are We Forecasting?5. How Are Forecasts Used?6. Health Effects7. Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution8. Pollutant Monitoring9. Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends10.Air Pollution Meteorology11.Case Studies of Episodes12.Air Quality Forecasting Tools 13.Developing a Forecasting Program14.Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations15.References

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Audience for Course

• Decision makers– Overview of air quality forecasting– General steps to develop/improve an air quality

forecasting program

• Meteorologists and forecasters– Overview of air quality emissions and chemistry– Discussion of how weather affects air quality– Discussion of tools used to forecast air quality

• Air quality scientists– Discussion of how weather affects air quality

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This course offers the necessary knowledge to develop, implement, and evaluate a forecasting program.• Understand the meteorological processes that affect pollution

concentrations

• Learn more about meteorological and air quality forecasting products

• Learn how to use and evaluate meteorological forecast data (case studies)

• Discuss the tools available for air quality forecasting

• Discuss how to develop, operate, and maintain a forecasting program

Structure of Course – Objectives

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Structure of Course – Design Goals

• Focus. Forecasting air quality—particulate matter (PM), ozone, other pollutants.

• Similarity. Air quality is strongly influenced by weather conditions and emissions sources. Weather conditions and emission types are generally similar, but have minor differences among countries.

• Practical. Beyond theory, the course contains practical advice and references to examples, tools, and methods.

• Gateway. The course workbook is a gateway to additional resources.

• Evolve. The course will improve in time through participants’ feedback.

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Introduction (1 of 3)

Forecasting Philosophy

• Understand how the system operates

– Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area

– Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality

• Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting tools

– No “silver bullet”

– Several tools provide a consensus forecast

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GlobalSpace: 4,000 km – 20,000 kmTime: 1 - 2 weeks

SynopticSpace: 400 km – 4,000 kmTime: 1 day – 1 week

MesoscaleSpace: 10 km – 400 kmTime: 1 hr – 1 day

UrbanSpace: 5 km - 50 kmTime: 1 hr - 4 hr

NeighborhoodSpace: 500 m - 5 kmTime: 1 min – 1 hr

Introduction (2 of 3)

Global

Synoptic

Mesoscale

Urban

Neighborhood

Predicting weather (and air quality) requires examining information for several different spatial and time scales.

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Introduction (3 of 3)

Forecasting Process

Predict weather

Predict weather’s effect on emissions and chemistry

Estimate AQ concentration

Convert to Air Index for the public

Clouds=reducedsunlight

Slows photochemistry

O3 = low Good AQI

Ozone

ColdInversion trapswood-burning

emissionsPM2.5 = High Unhealthy API

PM

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Exercise

Tell us about your experience and expectations for the course:

– Name – Agency or organization– Your position (job title)– Experience in forecasting air quality– Expectations for the course

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Day-by-Day Guide

• Day 1 (Monday) - Morning– 1. Acknowledgements– 2. Executive Overview– 3. Introduction and Overview of Course– 4. What are we forecasting

• 4. Exercise: Survey of audience

– Break (1045-1100)– 5. How are forecasts used?– 6. Health Effects

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Day-by-Day Guide

• Day 1 (Monday) - Afternoon– 7. Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution

• Exercise: Make ozone in a bottle • Exercise: Unit conversion (ppb to µg/m3)

– Break (1530-1545)– 8. Pollutant Monitoring

• Exercise – Identify urban/rural sites from time-series plots more

– Lunch 1230-1400

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Day-by-Day Guide

• Day 2 (Tuesday) – Morning– 9. Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends

• Exercise: Examine time series • Exercise: IER model of ozone smog

– 10. Air Pollution Meteorology – Break 1030-1045– 10. Air Pollution Meteorology (continued)– Lunch 1230-1400

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Day-by-Day Guide

• Day 2 (Tuesday) – Afternoon• Exercise

» Interpreting Radiosondes

» Mixing height calculator

» Using HYSPLIT

» Flowchart

– Map Discussion– Break (1545-1600)– 11. Case Study Episodes

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Day-by-Day Guide

• Day 3 (Wednesday) – Morning– 11. Case Study Episodes (as needed)– 12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools– Break (1045-1100)– 12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools (continued)

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Day-by-Day Guide

• Day 4 (Thursday)– 12a. Madrid Forecast Model– Break (1030-1045)– 12a. Madrid Forecast Model– Lunch (1230-1400)– 12b. Background and setup of TAPM– Questions about forecasting tools/methods

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Day-by-Day Guide

• Day 5 (Friday)– 13. Developing a Forecasting Program– Break (1030-1045)

• Exercise: Forecast verification.

– 14. Daily Weather Forecast Operations– Review of TAPM results– Lunch (1230-1400)– Review of TAPM results (continued)– Analysis of participants data– Questions and individual training

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Summary

• Define the audience (decision makers, meteorologists, forecasters, and air quality scientists)

• Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting tools

• Understand how the system operates

• Examine spatial and time scales (global, synoptic, mesoscale, urban, and neighborhood)

• Develop a forecasting process

– Predict weather and its effect on emissions and chemistry

– Estimate concentration and convert to an Air Index