Setting the Stage

for SEM Planning

SEM Data TeamAugust 2012

AffordabilityIntroduction Demographics Retention

Setting the Stage for SEM Planning

Indiana’s Education Pipeline

ICHE Strategic Priorities and Policy Directives - 2012

Students and the state are not well served by an empty promise of college access without completion.

• Degree Completion• Remediation

Success• Student Persistence

A more productive higher education system will increase student success and safeguard college affordability.

• On-Time Completion

• Cost Per Degree• Student Debt

Increasing college completion and productivity need not come at the expense of academic quality

• Learning Outcomes

• Transfer• Return on

Investment

Source: ICHE

AffordabilityIntroduction Demographics Retention

Setting the Stage for SEM Planning

Projected Shared of Total Population by Age Group, 2010 to 2050 (per IBRC)

Projected Population Change by Age Group, 2010 to 2050 (per IBRC)

Indiana Population by Age

Indiana HS Graduates 1991-2021

Source: Western Intestate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)

By 2014-15, Hispanics are expected to represent 8% of HS Graduates (up from 3% in 2004-05). African-Americans – 9% (up from 8% in 2004-05)

High School Graduates by Region

Source: Indiana Department of Education

Increase in graduates passing AP exams:◦ 7.5 percent in 2006 vs 14.0 percent in 2011

Increase in Dual Credit Course-Taking ◦ 10,000 in 2006 to over 43,000 students in 2011

Remediation Rates – 2011 HS Graduates◦ General Diploma Graduates – 66%◦ Core40 Graduates - 38%◦ Core40 with Honors Graduates – 7%

Statewide High School GraduatesRecent HS Graduates (2011)

One in four Indiana college students enrolled in remediation will earn a degree within 6 years Source: Complete College America, 2011

SAT Scores 2007 & 2011National, Indiana and ISU

Critical Reading Mathematics Writing475480485490495500505510515520

501

514

493497

514

489

National SAT Scores

20072011

Critical Reading Mathematics Writing450

460

470

480

490

500

510

497

507

483

493

501

475

Indiana SAT Scores

20072011

Critical Reading Mathematics Writing420

430

440

450

460

470

480

467473

455461

467

443

ISU SAT Scores

20072011

Source: College Board

Indiana Enrollmentby Type of Institution

Primary CompetitorsFall 2010 ISU Admits who did not enroll

Where did they go?

Source: National Student Clearinghouse

Annualized Enrollment – 4Yr Publics

ISU largest 1yr change (9.4%)USI largest 5yr change (13.2%)

Source: ICHE

IU- B PU - WL IUPUI BSU ISU USI0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

FY06FY10FY11

Ivy Tech 67% 5yr changeVU 42% 5yr changeICI – 14% 5yr change (Fall)

Student Profiles in Perspective

% P

ell R

ecip

ient

s

% U

nder

rep.

Min

ority

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

ISUIUPUIUSIBSUP-WLIU-BIllinois State

Source: IPEDS (2010).

Distance Education Trend ISU

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Fall Undergraduate Enrollment

No DistanceCombinationDistance Only

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Fall Graduate Enrollment

No DistanceCombinationDistance Only

25% enrolled in at least one distance courseFor the calendar year, 30% (15% distance only)

ISU Undergraduate Distance Education

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

UG Distance Only by Age

0-2526-3031-4041+

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

UG Combination by Age

0-2526-3031-4041+

AffordabilityIntroduction Demographics Retention

Setting the Stage for SEM Planning

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)State Higher Education Finance FY 2011

State Funding per Resident Degree-Seeking

FTE

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

ISUIU-BPU-WLBSUVUUSIIUPUIITCC

Source: ICHE

Performance Funding Impact on ISU’s Funding 2011-13

ISU Contribution to Performance

Funding Pool

ISU Funds Recommended

by ICHE

ISU Funds Approved in Final Budget

Successful Completion of Credit Hours $733,248 $8,024 $0

Dual Credit Successful Completion of Credit Hours $89,420 $4,875 $5,025

Early College Successful Completion of Credit Hours $28,615 $0 $0Low Income Degree Attainment $143,073 $751,456 $228,375On-Time Degree Change $71,536 $1,681,129 $221,404Change in Degrees Attained $1,788,409 $0 $0Research Incentive $722,517 $0 $0Total $3,576,818 $2,445,484 $454,804

Source: ISU VP Business Affairs

ISU Performance Funding Metrics for 2013-15 Budget Submission

FY12

CHE Recommendation for allocation of performance funding dollars: 55% through increases in overall degree completion and on-time degrees 30% rewards progress in persistence and low income degrees 15% improvement in institution-defined metric

Indiana Public Institution Fees

2001 2006 2010$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

Purdue - W.L.Indiana - BloomingtonBall State UIUPUI - IndianapolisIndiana State UU of Southern IndVincennes UIvy Tech CC

Year

Cost

(in

2010

Dol

lars

)

  Fall 2001 Fall 2011

Course LevelDistinct Courses

Course Enrollment

sTotal Fees

Distinct Courses

Course Enrollments

Total Fees

Undergraduate 114 2611 $76,259 202 5525 $558,099Graduate 35 82 $3,413 70 642 $161,958Total 149 2693 $79,672 272 6167 $720,057

ISU Course Fees

4 12 17 25 36 43 48 60 100

129

300

500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Fall 2011 Course Fees

Flat feeHourly Fee

Fee Amount

Num

ber

of

Cours

es

Average per course enrollment $30 $117

Paying for College

• 70% of families are eliminating college choices based on cost

• More students are now choosing to enroll in community colleges

Source: How America Pays for College,Ipsos/Sallie Mae

2005 2009 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

28%

41%

49%

33%

57%

39%38%

51%54%54%

59%

65%

Federal Grants State Grants Institutional Grants Loans to Students* Dollar figures represent the average aid amounts *

$2,716 $3,993 $3,083 $6,143 $4,646 $4,115 $2,500 $6,619 $4,559 $4,481 $2,835 $6,171

Financial Aid to ISU Full-time First-time Freshman% of cohort receiving aid by type

Source: ISU IPEDS Financial Aid Survey

ISU Purchasing Power of Grants

AffordabilityIntroduction Demographics Retention

Setting the Stage for SEM Planning

Year 4 Year 4+?Also: About 1 of every 2 transfer students to ISU graduate from here.

ISU Retention/Graduation

New FreshmenFirst-time Full-time Bachelors Degree Seekers

(FTFTBDS) Headcount

Year Total Unconditional Conditional2001 2016 1601 4152002 1925 1658 2672003 1836 1494 3422004 1672 1382 2902005 1519 1195 324

2006 1552 1204 3482007 1691 1328 3632008 1832 1354 4782009 1801 1441 3602010 2566 2068 498

2011 2512 2219 293

2012 2658 2325 333

PercentConditional

21%14%19%17%21%

22%21%26%20%19%

12%

13%

FTFT BDS – Ethnicity (Fall 2012)

22%

4%

4%

3%1%

65%

UnconditionalAfrican American

American Indian

Asian American

Hispanic

Multiracial

Not Reported

International

White

43%

0%5%

7%

45%

ConditionalAfrican American

American Indian

Asian American

Hispanic

Multiracial

Not Reported

International

White

25%

4%

4%

4%1%

63%

All FTFT BDS

African AmericanAmerican IndianAsian AmericanHispanicMultiracialNot ReportedInternationalWhite

First-time Freshman ProfileFall 2012

High School Rank

9% - Top 10%29% - Top 25%68% - Top 50%

High School GPA

22% - 3.5 or higher53% - 3.0 or higher89% - 2.5 or higher

High School Other

20% - Acad Honors Diplomas20% - 21st Century Scholars

First-time Freshman Profile (2012)

What else?

• 56% Women

• 81% Live on Campus

• More than half are Pell

Recipients

• Over half are 1st Generation

Where are they from?

• 80% Indiana

• 16% Out of State

• 4% International

Where in Indiana?

• 27% Marion & surrounding

• 16% Vigo & surrounding

• 11% Northwest Indiana

State benchmark retention rates:

four year publicsName

Middle 50% ACT

Middle 50th SAT total

Class rank percentile ACT Category

Average one-year retention

rate

Purdue University WL 23-29 1530 - 190071% from top

quarterSelective -

highly selective 87%

Indiana University B 24-29 1625 - 184574% from top

quarterSelective -

highly selective 90%

Ball State University 20-24 1440-1720 89% from top half Traditional 79%

IUPUI 18-25 1369 - 1699 85% from top half Traditional 70%

Indiana State 16-22 1210 - 1520 64% from top halfLiberal -

Traditional 66%University of Southern Indiana 18-23 1270-1590 69% from top half Traditional 67%

Source: US News

National Average = 78.4%Indiana = 74.3% IPEDS 2010 – all 4-yr publics

Potential Retention Peers – Characteristics

Main State LocaleSize

(Undergrad FTE)

Student Related

Expenditures / Total FTE

% Freshmen Pell

Recipients

% Under-represented

Minority

Estimated Median SAT/ACT

Illinois State University ILCity

Small 17,328 $10,238 14.00% 9.30% 1,105

Ball State University INCity

Small 16,030 $11,356 21.00% 9.50% 1,045

Central Michigan University MITown

Remote 18,960 $8,158 23.00% 7.60% 1,030

East Carolina University NCCity

Small 19,159 $11,878 20.00% 17.40% 1,010Indiana University of Pennsylvania-Main Campus PA

Town Distant 11,330 $10,114 32.00% 13.60% 965

University of Northern Colorado CO

City Small 9,282 $8,771 18.00% 13.30% 1,045

Louisiana Tech University LATown

Distant 7,246 $7,360 29.00% 16.40% 1,065The University of West Florida FL

City Small 7,019 $8,125 25.00% 15.90% 1,065

East Tennessee State University TN

City Small 9,805 $13,602 31.00% 6.60% 1,030

Indiana State University INCity

Small 7,591 $10,205 35.00% 15.40% 930

Potential retention peers – retention and graduation rates

Main 2009 6-Year Grad Rate 1st Year Retention Rate

Illinois State University 69.00% 83.00%

Ball State University 58.30% 78.00%

Central Michigan University 57.20% 77.00%

East Carolina University 56.80% 76.00%

Indiana University of Pennsylvania-Main Campus 54.20% 74.00%

University of Northern Colorado 49.30% 70.00%

Louisiana Tech University 46.40% 72.00%

The University of West Florida 45.30% 71.00%

East Tennessee State University 42.50% 67.00%

Indiana State University 40.40% 66.00%

Source: AACRAO SEM Consulting

ISU’s 5yr Goal – 70%

HeadcountYear Total Unconditional Conditional2006 1552 1204 3482007 1691 1328 3632008 1832 1354 4782009 1801 1441 3602010 2566 2068 498

2011 2512 2219 293

2012 2658 2325 333

New FreshmenFirst-time Full-time Bachelors Degree Seekers

(FTFTBDS)

1yr Retention RateTotal Unconditional Conditional

69.1% 71.8% 59.8%66.2% 69.4% 54.5%63.9% 67.6% 53.6%63.9% 68.6% 45.3%58.1% 61.9% 42.2%

PercentConditional

22%21%26%20%19%

12%

13%

60.6% 63.1% 41.6%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1-yr Retention2-yr Retention4-yr Graduation6-yr Graduation

Cohort

ISU New Freshmen (FTFTBDS)Retention & Graduation Rates

ISU First-time Freshman Retention Rates by Region

ISU 1-Yr Retention Rates (FTFT BDS) African Americans and Whites

African American White0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

43.2%

63.2%51.6%

63.0%

Total

20072008200920102011

African American White0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

37.8%45.1%37.3%

43.2%

Conditional

20072008200920102011

African American White0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

45.8%

66.4%55.2%

64.9%

Unconditional

20072008200920102011

ISU 1-Yr Retention Rates (FTFTBS)Pell Recipients vs NonPell

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

No pellPell

Living On Campus Off Campus Pct Living Hdcnt 1yrRet Hdcnt 1yrRet OnCampus

2006 1123 70.4% 429 65.5% 72.4%2007 1291 66.4% 400 65.8% 76.3%2008 1418 63.6% 414 65.0% 77.4%2009 1418 64.4% 383 62.1% 78.7%2010 2078 59.0% 488 54.5% 81.0%

FTFT BDS 1-Yr Retention RatesLiving On/Off Campus

FYE Res Hall Oth Res Hall Hdcnt 1yrRet Hdcnt 1yrRet

2006 850 68.9% 273 75.1%2007 916 67.6% 375 63.5%2008 935 65.8% 483 59.4%2009 942 65.4% 476 62.4%2010 1258 63.5% 820 52.0%

MapWorks Fall Transition Survey (2011)

Student Engagement SurveysNSSE/FSSE

Supportive Campus Envi-ronment Scale (Means, 0 to 100, Diff Statistically

Signif)

Campus environment pro-vides the support you

need to help you succeed academically

Campus environment helps you cope with your

non-academic responsibili-ties

Campus environment pro-vides the support you need to thrive socially

FY - ISU 59 69 39 45

FY - Carn Class 62 77 40 50

Seniors - ISU 57.2 68 28 35

Seniors - Carn Class

59.8 73 31 39

Faculty NaN 68 29 44

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

Supportive Campus Environment

% saying Institution Does Very Much/Quite a Bit

Student Engagement SurveysNSSE/FSSE

Quality of relationships with other students

Quality of relationships with faculty members (Diffs Stat Sig-

nif)

Quality of relationships with administrative personnel and of-

fices

ISU FY 5.36 5.02 4.7

FY - CarnClass 5.43 5.3 4.8

ISU Senior 5.55 5.29 4.74

Senior - CarnClass 5.6 5.55 4.67

Faculty 5.31 5.24 4.21

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

5.50

Quality of RelationshipsM

eans

, 1-7