SENSE-MAKING .

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MAKING SENSE OF THE PAST

The First Birth: Out of Africa

Neanderthal - Homo Sapiens230,000 - 30,000 - 150,000 - today

Homo Sapiens - The Winners

• Almost 7 Billion on planet today• Projections between 10 and 14 billion by 2100• Bruner says: Homo Sapiens cultural creatures,

masters of technology• Creative and ready to adapt to the environment• Neanderthal extinct – could not adapt• Conclusion: No status quo, every species

vulnerable• Development not linear

Toba

Actually today’s humans originate from a few thousand survivors and we can attribute the cause to the eruption f the super volcano Toba around 73,000 years ago

Dinosaur Extinction

Across Mediterranean To China Cultures Deeply Challenged

Ways of Knowing• Science(experimental approach to the physical

universe) • Philosophy(the abstract mind) • Rationalism/Scepticism (not accepting realities that are

not immediately evident) • Religion (faith in divine revelation and social tradition)

Mysticism (experiences based on spiritual techniques) Esotericism(intuitive speculation on cosmological world-views)

• Occultism(using psycho-physical techniques to access hidden realities)

• Gnosis (innate wisdom and understanding)

The Second Birth The Great Library In Alexandria

The Third Birth:The Library In Timbuktu

What Happened in Africa

What Happened In Africa?

• Sahara Desert• North of Sahara incredible cultural challenges• Limited penetration to sub-Saharan Africa• Tribal conflicts• Colonial period: Conquest, Destruction of Kingdoms and

Cultures, No new knowledge mission• Apartheid: Expansion of access but low funding• The “Struggle” through schooling: Iconoclasm• By 1994: No strong modern learning culture • At 2010: Still no strong learning culture of any sort

Political MapScramble For Africa

The Modern African Renaissance

MAKING SENSE OF THE PRESENT

We can expect massive future changes, which will change the face of the planetDr. Susan Solomon

http://www.bjerknes.uib.no/pages.asp?id=1416&kat=2&lang=2

SO WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?

Almost 7 Billion And Growing

Dalin’s 10 Revolutions

• 1. The knowledge and information revolution• 2. The population explosion• 3. Globalisation• 4. The economic revolution• 5. The technological revolution• 6. The ecological revolution• 7. The social/cultural revolution• 8. The aesthetic revolution• 9. The political revolution• 10. The values revolution. Per Dalin

1994: South Africa’s Triple Challenge

• Build a democratic state• Integrate itself into the competitive arena of

international production and finance. • Reconstruct domestic social and economic relations

to eradicate and redress the inequitable patterns of ownership, wealth and social and economic practices that were shaped by segregation and apartheid

• All of this while the entire world is changing dramatically

How Can We Respond?

• Thinkers from Imhotep and Confucius through Plato, Aquinas, Ibn Khaldun, Calvin, Newton, Rousseau, Comte, Mill, Marx, Gramsci, Castro, Mao, Nyerere to Wallerstein and Castells in our present day all allocate a special place in their theories of development to knowledge. Education for them is the foundation for whatever form of development or progress one espouses.

• Manual Castells: “knowledge and networks”

The Continents: To Scale

• The land area of each territory is shown here. • The total land area of these 200 territories is 13,056 million hectares. Divided up equally that

would be 2.1 hectares for each person. A hectare is 100 metres by 100 metres. • However, population is not evenly spread: Australia's land area is 21 times bigger than

Japan's, but Japan's population is more than six times bigger than Australia's.

Primary Education

• "Everyone has the right to education", according to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The second Millennium Development Goal is to achieve universal primary education. In 2002, 5 out of 6 eligible children were enrolled in primary education worldwide. However, enrolment does not guarantee attendance, or completion.

• If primary education continues beyond the expected years, enrolment rates can exceed 100%. In Argentina there is an impressive 108% enrolment. On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean 30% of children in Angola are enrolled in primary school.

Secondary Education

• Worldwide approximately 73 million children are enrolled in each year of secondary education out of a possible 122 million children. That is only 60% getting a secondary education.

• In China on average 89% get a secondary education, but in India it is only 49%. Figures in Africa are even lower: 45% in Northern Africa, 25% in Southeastern Africa and 13% in Central Africa. The lowest is 5% in Niger. What is compulsory in some territories is a rarity in others.

Tertiary Education

• The highest percentage of the student aged population enrolled is in Finland. Finland is 3.6 times the world average, with 140 times the chance of a tertiary education than in Mozambique.

Science Research

• Scientific papers cover physics, biology, chemistry, mathematics, clinical medicine, biomedical research, engineering, technology, and earth and space sciences.

• The number of scientific papers published by researchers in the United States was more than three times as many as were published by the second highest-publishing population, Japan.

• There is more scientific research, or publication of results, in richer territories. This locational bias is such that roughly three times more scientific papers per person living there are published in Western Europe, North America, and Japan, than in any other region.

New Patents

• In 2002, 312 thousand patents were granted around the world. More than a third of these were granted in Japan. Just under a third were granted in the United States.

• A patent is supposed to protect the ideas and inventions that people have. Patenting something will then allow the owner of the patent to charge others for the usage of an idea or invention. The aim is to reward the creator for their hard work or intelligence. But patents can prevent people from using good ideas because they cannot afford to do so.

• A quarter of all territories had no new patents in 2002, so will not profit from these in future years as others will.

Books Borrowed

• This map shows books borrowed from public libraries - which lend books to members for free or for a nominal charge. Libraries share books, making it unnecessary for us to buy books that we will read only once or twice.

• The most books borrowed were in the Russian Federation. There were high rates of borrowing in Western Europe, Japan and Eastern Europe. In these regions most territories reported some book borrowing.

• In other regions reported book borrowing was lower, and many territories reported very little borrowing. Where many people cannot afford books, it appears they often cannot borrow them either.

Changes In Life Expectancy In Selected African Countries With High And Low HIV Prevalence:

1950 - 2005

with high HIV prevalence:

Zimbabwe

South Africa

Botswana

with low HIV prevalence:

Madagascar

Senegal

Mali

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Lif

e e

xp

ecta

ncy

(y

ears

)

1950– 1955

1955- 1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Tuberculosis

• The World Health Organisation reports that someone with open tuberculosis would infect 10 to 15 people a year. So when a certain number of people are infected it is very hard to stop it spreading further. Tuberculosis bacilli are spread through the air when someone sneezes or coughs.

• In the past 50 years drugs have been developed to treat tuberculosis. The disease has since developed strains that are resistant to those drugs.

HIV Prevalence

• This map shows the number of people aged 15-49 years old living with HIV.• In 2003, the highest HIV prevalence was Swaziland, where 38%, or almost 4 in

every 10 people aged 15 to 49 years, were HIV positive. • All ten territories with the highest prevalence of HIV are in Central and

Southeastern Africa.

Malaria cases

• Of all the people living with malaria, 92% live in African territories. Parts of Mediterranean Africa have very low numbers of malaria cases. In contrast, almost half the people living in Uganda suffer from malaria. Uganda also has the most cases of malaria in the world. Most territories are barely visible due to the low number of malaria cases found there.

Sense-makingGHANA-SOUTH KOREA

• In 1957, Ghana, then the wealthiest nation in Sub-Saharan Africa, had a per capita income almost equal to that of South Korea (US $490 against US $491 in 1980 dollars).

• By the early 1980s, Ghana's annual income per head had fallen by nearly 20 percent to US $400, while South Korea's per capita GDP was, by then, over US $2,000.

• The UNDP's 1990 Human Development Report suggests that South Korea had an annual purchasing power per head ten times greater than Ghana ($4,832 vs US $481)

PhDs Per I Million People

• Post-graduate Profiles

• Research Profiles

PhD production rates

23

114

157

10

188

7

53

140

221

43

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

SouthAfrica

China India Japan SouthKorea

Taiwan UK USA Australia Brazil

Ph

D's

/ye

ar/

mil

lio

n o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

851

55715780

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Total

ACADEMIC LITERACYNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

7 9

30

55 51

194

21 18

59

0

50

100

150

200

250

Commerce Law Science

UWC

ACADEMIC LITERACYNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

3055

6125

3022

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Total

QUANTITATIVE LITERACYNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

32

39

131

47

35

141

4 4

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Commerce Law Science

UWC

QUANTITATIVE LITERACY

NBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

2146

7788

738

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Total

MATHEMATICSNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

23

110

23

142

10

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Commerce Science

UWC

MATHEMATICSNBT Benchmark Levels, February 2009

Basic

Intermediate

Proficient

National Benchmark Tests Project:Pilot Test Reports

Mathematics Benchmark Levels

Educational Environment

• Primacy of politics: Legacy of past• Curriculum fantasy • Rampant anti-intellectualism• Schools in crises (80% dysfunctional)• Grades 3, 6 and 8 literacy rates two years below

benchmarks• 50% Dropout rates from Gr 1 – Gr 12• 40% Failure rate Gr 12

Educational Environment

• Last in recent international ratings (55 countries – many in developing world) in High School Maths, Science

• 50+ % of research currently done by white researchers older than 50

• No new generation of scientists

MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE

Dennis Meadows

The Lie

UnlimitedResources

UnlimitedPopulation

Growth

SUSTAINABILITY:

The Hope

ResourcesPopulation

SUSTAINABILITY:

The Reality

Resources

Population

2030: A Watershed

“By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequencesDemand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030 and for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops 8.3 billion. Climate change will exacerbate matters in unpredictable ways”. Beddington.

“Change is now ubiquitous, non-linear and persistent Hargreaves

So: What Is It All About?

Education and The Human Story• “(Wo)man living in a cultural revolution

and in a world of war, violence, and social upheaval, is impelled as never before to ask the hard questions of the meaning of historical existence”

Robert P Mohan.

Can Humankind Endure?

The Wisdom of Manuel Castells

Knowledge, Understanding, Networks The Key to Human Survival

The (South) African RenaissanceWhere To With Education?

The Burden of Leadership and Management

Good News: Homo Sapiens a Cultural Creature:

We Make and Remake Ourselves Humankind hugely successful: Frontal cortex• 5 humanising factors: Long childhood: learn to be human Plethora of organisations Language Curiosity Technology• Advanced in most benign natural period in human

history: temperatures just right.

Human Brain

THE EDUCATION NEXUS: OUR WAR MACHINE

THE STATETHE STATE

CURRICULUMCURRICULUM PEDAGOGYPEDAGOGY MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

LEARNERSLEARNERS

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

Leadership and Management Matter• For better or for worse people follow where

leaders lead. NEED GOOD LEADERS – BAD LEADERS CATASTROPHIC

• All societies have people who behave destructively and the challenge of society is to contain their behaviour. The deepest danger is when such people become the leaders. (One theme of Golding’s Lord of the Flies)

Good leadership

• Analysis• Belief in the possibility of change• Courage• Persistence• Collaborative leadership• Model the changes you desire• Leave leadership legacy J Cole

Bad leadership

• Incompetent• Rigid• Intemperate• Callous• Corrupt• Insular• Evil Kellerman

Bad leaders

Leadership and Change

• Leaders are the heart of an enterprise. The essence of leadership means inspiring a group to come together for a common goal. Leaders motivate, console and work with people to keep them bonded and eager to achieve their goals. That means setting a direction, communicating it to everyone and keeping people committed when deeply challenged by the environment.

Leadership and Management

Managers are the brains of an organization They establish systems, create rules and operating procedures. They get the job done.

The Task of Leaders and Managers• Facing up: Summit of Stakeholders – brutal

honesty/consequences of failure• Ownership: Agreements, compacts amongst key partners• Commitment: Accountability• Competence: Talent, potential, not good enough• No magic: Hard, hard work • No exclusivity: High risk strategy• President must lead: Call nation together, call to saving our

nation• Greater struggle than HIV and Aids: Long term harm• SADTU and youth formations key: New revolution• Reconstruction of family and community essential

The Key Role of leaders and Managers?

Leadership and management must accomplish three things:

• Promote ownership• Develop commitment• Develop competence

Good leadership

• Analysis• Belief in the possibility of change• Courage• Persistence• Collaborative leadership• Model the changes you desire• Leave leadership legacy J Cole

Challenge Understated• This gathering not essentially about school leaders

and managers, but the future of our nation and globally that of our species

• Role of knowledge critical in securing our future (assist us to make sense and find social or technological answers)

• All humans stakeholders• Who/ What are significant role players• Schools central to this project• New consciousness sine qua non

SENSE-MAKING .

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The Challenge Of Change

• “But what remains to be said about the quantity and source of blood which thus passes is of so novel and unheard of character, that I fear not only injury to myself from the envy of a few, but I tremble lest I have all mankind at large for my enemies so much doth want and custom that become as another nature, and doctrine once sown, and that has struck deep root, and respect for antiquity, influence all men”. William Harvey 1628

The culture of any organisation is a reflection of the personalities of its leaders. Cultural evolution is a personal journey in the lives of the leaders. For evolution (transformation) to occur the leader and the leadership team must be committed to a journey of self-actualization.

Levels Of Consciousness

7

6

3

2

1

5

4

Survival

Service

Internal Cohesion

Transformation

Relationship

Making a Difference

Self-Esteem

Full-spectrum cultures are led by full-spectrum leaders: Followers will follow where leaders lead

Barrett

A Citadel: Place Of Safety In Past

Universities And Schools The New Citadels

• DAMTEW TEFERRA:We must develop a new conception of leadership and management, given the dramatic changes in our environment. We must forge a new global sense of academic partnerships based on the realisation that the “CITADELS of learning institutions” are at the heart of any prospect of human survival

• Bastion, Acropolis, Kremlin ,Stronghold, Fastness

The School: The New Citadel

OUR DREAM

HOUSE

Transport

WORK

FAMILY

Child and Starvation

Child and Vulture

Assist Us To Stand And See And Meet The Future

There was an Indian, who had known no change, Who strayed content upon a sunlit beachGathering shells. He heard a sudden strange Commingled noise: looked up; and gasped for speech.For in the bay, where nothing was before, Moved on the sea, by magic, huge canoes,With bellying cloths on poles, and not one oar.And fluttering coloured signs and clambering crews. And he, in fear, this naked man alone,His fallen hands forgetting all their shells,His lips gone pale, knelt low behind a stone,And stared, and saw, and did not understand, Columbus’s doom-burdened caravelsSlant to the shore, and all her seamen land. Caravels: J C Squires

A Humble Request

Had I the heavens' embroidered cloths,Enwrought with golden and silver light,The blue and the dim and the dark clothsOf night and light and the half-light,I would spread the cloths under your feet:But I, being poor, have only my dreams;I have spread my dreams under your feet;Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.

W B YEATS