TheNewBolivia

October 27 2015

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Contents

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Comment5President Evo Morales’ ability totune into popular feeling worriesmany of his fellow politicians,says James Dunkerley

overview6As the commodity price boomthreatens to end, socialist Bolivia iswooing business harder than ever

interview8Evo Morales says he is notworried about the economy, but ifgrowth falters, his newly affluentsupporters may turn on him

oil and gas22Bolivia wants to be the energyheart of South America but has arecord of exploration failures

mining26The country’s informal butpowerful co-operatives aredemanding greater investment

agriCulture30How soya wealth is changingthe province of Santa Cruz

indigenous peoples34The rise and fall of Bolivia’sethnic groups

musiC38The Polish priest reviving thelost heritage of “jungle Baroque”

tourism42Move over backpackers —more investment is openingthe door to wealthier visitors

Comment50By seeking a fourth term, EvoMorales could destroy his legacy,says Edmundo Paz Soldán

EditorSueNorrisProductioneditorGeorgeKyriakosDesignerSheila JackPictureeditorMichaelCrabtreeSubeditorsPhilipParrish,RuthLewis-Coste, JearelleWolhuterSpecialReportseditorLeylaBoultonDirector,LatinAmerica&CaribbeanJohnMMoncureAccountdirector,LatinAmericaXimenaMartinezLieraAdvertisingproductionDaniel Lesar

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eConomy and soCiety16 Is this what a left-leaningconsumer boom looks like?

Comment20Former UN diplomat DameMargaret Anstee on the historicalroots of the Morales revolution

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ContRibutoRSDameMargaretAnstee is a former under-secretary-generaland director-general of the UN and former adviser to theBolivian governmentJamesDunkerley is professor of politics at Queen MaryUniversity of LondonbenedictMander is the FT’s Southern Cone correspondentEdmundoPazSoldán is a Bolivian writerJohnPaulRathbone is the FT’s Latin America editorAndresSchipani is the FT’s Andes correspondentJamesWilson is the FT’s mining correspondent

CoverPhotographyNoah Friedman-Rudovsky/Bloomberg

Evo Morales isprobably themost travelledof Bolivia’s63 heads ofstate since itsfoundation

in 1825, even though SimónBolívar, the first holder of thatoffice, is better known abroad.

Morales, elected in January2006, is Bolivia’s first indigenouspresident and a radical “manof the people”. He has workedhard to keep his foreign alliancesin good order and to maintaina viable international profilefor the land-locked country.Although he is not above somemischief, he is far less impulsivethan some believe.

The rhetoricof the Moralesgovernmentcertainly chimeswith that of theanti-WashingtonConsensusregimes, whichsprang up in LatinAmerica during the early yearsof this century. In substance,however, the macro-economicpolicies implemented by La Pazare often quite conservative.Andean peasants are not averseto markets but want “fair” ones.So the president increasinglyappears more concerned aboutregaining a strategic exit to thesea than to nationalise industriesat home.

Likewise, diplomatic relationswith Chile have become aprominent feature in domesticas well as foreign policy. The lossof the Pacific littoral to Chileafter the War of the Pacific(1879-1884) has always provokedmore nationalist sentiment

aberration. The presidentalso lacks a wide range ofreliable domestic allies. Hisgovernment has secured theacquiescence of the armedforces, but the administrationrests on an unpredictablepopular movement that broughtit to power via the ballot boxprecisely because he faced downthe troops.

For these reasons Moralescannot stoke up nationalistsentiment too sharply withoutthe risk of severe publicdisappointment. So far, he haskept in tune with the populartemper over relations with theUS and Chile, recently enlistingthe approval of almost all theex-presidents, for the diplomaticcampaign in pursuit of an exitto the sea. They in turn havedistanced that support from anyendorsement of the regime’sdomestic policies.

However, the differencebetween participating in the exitto the sea and endorsing the restof the administration’s policies,is not so clear-cut. In Bolivia anybipartisanship, such as foreignalliance, pays dividends wellbefore the shoreline. ■

James Dunkerley is professor ofLatin American politics at QueenMary University of London

than have wars with Argentina,Peru, Brazil and Paraguay,which also resulted in loss ofterritory and lives. Today, Chileis widely perceived as continuingto exploit a historic wrongbecause of the condescension ofits elite, dominated by familiesof European descent, and bypractising a legalistic subversionof neighbourliness. So the rulinglast month by the InternationalCourt of Justice in The Haguethat it is qualified to hearBolivia’s case in the territorialdispute with Chile was receivedwith great popular acclaim.

Bolivia, of course, has anunenviable reputation forinternal conflict as well as for

the fragility of itsfrontiers. Moralescame to power onthe back of a seriesof protests againstforeign ownershipof water (2001-02)and the exportof natural gasto Chile (2003-

2005) — fierce conflicts thatwere soon dubbed “wars” andinvolved sufficient loss of life forthat description to stick.

Morales is viewed as beingparochial because of his ruralorigins and defence of cocafarmers, whose unions andanti-US feelings provide his corepolitical following.

Few of the national elitecame to his aid, for example,when he was unceremoniouslyejected from congress in 2002,as he was deemed to not havemet the formal conditions forpolitical party registration. Manyof this elite see the indigenousfeatures of his governmentas a dangerous and divisive

Man of the peopleBolivia’s first indigenouspresident’s ability to tune into popular

feelingworries fellowpoliticians, saysJames Dunkerley

Bolivianstudentscelebrate theInternationalCourt ofJustice’sdecisiontohear thecountry’s seadispute caseagainst Chile

Morales is notabovemischiefbut he is less

impulsive thansomebelieve

PHOTO:REUTERS

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Mountainsto climbWith leaner times ahead, socialist Bolivia iswooingbusiness ever harder. By John Paul Rathbone

It should be atruth universallyacknowledgedthat centre-rightgovernments in LatinAmerica do not knowtheir countries, while

centre-left governments do notknow how to manage them.Socialist Bolivia is an exception thatproves this rule — so far.

That is largely thanks to thecommodity price boom thatbegan in 2003 and lifted Bolivia’seconomic boats. It is also thanksto the ingrained memory ofhyperinflation in 1985 whenprices rose by 12,000 per cent:no Bolivian wants to see sucheconomic instability again. And,lastly, it is down to EvoMorales,president since 2006, whounderstood, unlike Hugo Chávezin Venezuela or the Kirchner

double-act in Argentina, that asolid economy would give himvaluable financial autonomy.

Everybody, from voters toministers, calls him Evo. WhenPope Francis visited Bolivia in July2015, Morales presented him with acrucifix carved into a hammer andsickle. WhenMorales’ MovementTowards Socialism (MAS) partyperformed poorly in regionalelections in March, he blamedmachismo (although the oppositionwinner of the El Alto mayoraltywas a woman). His trademarkanti-Yankeeism has won himmanyenemies at home and abroad. Yethe has otherwise steered an evencourse, while his anti-imperialistrhetoric is often no more thanan expression of understandablepopular resentments, includinghis own. In 1994, while head of thecoca leaf growers’ union, Morales

was arrested by US-trained anti-drug agents. “F***ing Indian,” theyyelled while beating him up.

Morales is an ethnic Aymara —one of Bolivia’s main indigenousgroups, which make up two-thirdsof the country’s 10m people. Thatmakes him the first indigenouspresident in Bolivia, a countrytraditionally ruled by membersof its minoritymestizo or whiteinhabitants. For the most part,these descendants of Europeansettlers helped to create a brutaland humiliating history duringwhich the indigenous majority wastreated like dirt. A redrafting of theconstitution has since enshrinedmany indigenous rights, buoying— at least at first —Morales’popularity.

Bolivia famously remains oneof the poorest countries in SouthAmerica, a feature that, combined

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LaPaz, above, isthehighest seatof governmentin theworld.Few roadsconnect itwithother parts ofthe country,and those areeasily closedbyprotests

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likely to be ahard slog

with its history, can be explainedby a near-impossible geography:its lack of access to the sea; thetowering passes of the Andes; theextremes of cold and wetness; andthe abrupt changes of altitude amidpeaks that rise suddenly to 12,000feet above sea level.

This altitude can rendertravellers from the lowlandsbreathless and sick, and itsde-oxygenating effects are oftenbest countered by chewing cocaleaves, the remedy used locally formillennia and now transmuted intothe primary source of a still-largecontraband cocaine trade intoneighbouring Brazil and Argentina.

But Bolivia has lush lowlandstoo. Santa Cruz, its largest city, ishome to most of the nation’s wealthand also frequent secessionaryclaims by grumpy agro-industrialists. Indeed, Bolivia’s

extreme geography helps explain itsrecent history and politics too.

There are few roads — only onelinks La Paz to Cochabamba, thecity that connects the highlands tothe lowlands. only one road linksLa Paz to the airport at El Alto.That is why the many brigadesof poor, including Morales’ cocaunion, discovered in the 2000sthey could erect a roadblock andshut down the country until theirdemands were met.

This tactic helped bring Moralesto power and is still used, anirritant to government that usuallyrequires his personal attention anddispensing of funds to solve. Theroadblock, in short, has becomethe basis of anunusual rentiereconomy, settledwith commodity-generated wealththat will end oneday, perhaps soon,as the commodityboom ebbs.

There arealready signs of this happening.For its entire post-conquestexistence, Bolivia has survivedon one principal export — silver;then rubber and tin; briefly cocapaste from coca leaves; now gas.Almost half of Bolivia’s exports areof natural gas, linked to the fallingprice of oil. A fixed exchange rate,combined with domestic inflation,is making the economy lesscompetitive, while stunting much-needed economic diversification.

The prospect of leaner timesexplains the country’s pushto attract foreign investment.Such pragmatism conjures upmultiple ironies: opening upprotected areas to hydrocarbonexploration, for example, is towatch the collapse of Morales’self-proclaimed mission to

fight capitalism and protectMother Earth. More materially,investor memories of recentnationalisations linger. Thecountry ranks 103rd out of 174in Transparency International’scorruption perceptions index, and157th out of 189 on the WorldBank’s ease of doing businesssurvey, below Iraq. The investmentdrive is likely to be a hard slog.

Meanwhile national politics isbecoming more volatile. In July,miners from Potosí, wieldingshovels and sticks of dynamite,marched on La Paz, where theyoccupied the vice-ministry ofthe interior, forcing ministers toflee. Such anger comes despite a

remarkable socialtransformationunder Morales. Theproportion of thepopulation livingon less than $4 aday fell to 27 percent in 2013 from54 per cent in 2005.This is laudable but

also no better, it needs be stressed,than the full-blown capitalism ofneighbouring Peru.

What next? Morales is manythings, but a democrat maynot be one of them. The MAScontrols Congress, state-ownedmedia flatters the governmentand, if Morales runs for a fourthterm in 2019, he will probablywin. If he completes that term,he will have been president for20 years — not the half-centuryof his mentor Fidel Castro, butalmost twice Chavez’s reign. Thatwould be disappointing, butthen a central tenet of Andeancosmology is the circularity oftime. For better and for worse, the“new” Bolivia contains a lot of theold one too. It would be unrealisticand foolish to expect any more. n

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President —or patronEvoMorales tellsAndres Schipanihe is notworried at all about the economy. But if growthfalls away, howwill the ‘peasant president’ keephis newly affluent voters happy?PhotographbyNoahFriedman-Rudovsky

hen EvoMoraleswas a pooryoungsterherdingllamas onthe shores

of Lake Poopó on Bolivia’s highplains, he learnt three basicAndean rules of life: ama sua (benot a thief), ama quella (be notlazy) and ama llulla (be not a liar).

When I met him in Bolivia afew weeks ago he agreed that, as hegrew into adulthood, he learnt onemore rule: ama llunk’u (do notbe servile). It is a maxim that hasserved him well: supporters of thecountry’s first indigenous leaderregard him as the man who endedfive centuries of oppression againstBolivia’s Amerindian peoples.

Morales’ rise to power hasspurred hopes of radical changeamong the peasant farmers,unions and urban migrants whoare his political base. “I have tobe careful now: there are a lot ofsycophants around,” he says.

His party, the MovementTowards Socialism (MAS), wantshim to run for a fourth term in2019; last month Congress votedto amend the constitution toallow him to do so. A referendumto ratify that will be held nextFebruary, which is worrying tothose who identify autocraticleanings in the president.

Thousands marched throughLa Paz in August demandingMorales be able to continue hisrevolution indefinitely. When Imet him, I watched about 12,000indigenous people chanting“Brother Evo, Brother Evo” as heunveiled a bust of himself at a new$11m sports complex named inhis honour, in Quillacollo on theoutskirts of Cochabamba.

Before he set off to the footballpitch at the complex, his tone wascheerful but measured. Moralesis a confident man: as far as he isconcerned he has “refounded” acountry whose history has beenone of exclusion, hyperinflation(notably in 1985), dictatorships,coups and indigenous uprisings.

“Before, we had a colonial statewith a small dominant class,” hesaid. “It was a state in name only— those were impostor presidents.”

The revolving doors of thepresidency spun out five office-holders in the five years before

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Morales won his first term in2005, securing en masse anindigenous vote that was wearyof a discredited political system.Morales also profited fromindigenous anger at a uS-led pushto eradicate coca — cocaine’s rawingredient but traditionally usedas a mild stimulant by Andeans.

He has brought a substantialmeasure of stability to one of LatinAmerica’s mostvolatile countries.He has grantedsweeping rights tothe Amerindianmajority — serfdomwas abolished onlyin 1945 and until1952 indigenouspeople were forbidden to enter thesquare outside the presidentialpalace.

“Before Evo, we, theindigenous, were invisible,” saysCelima Torrico, a Quechua womanwho served as justice ministerduring Morales’ first term. “Peoplecalled us ‘Indians’; they used to tellus we had to first civilise ourselvesbefore we could enter a publicbuilding.”

It was Morales’ connectionwith peasants such as Torrico thatsecured his first presidential termin 2005 with 54 per cent of thevote, then strengthened his supportin 2009 to 63 per cent after theconstitution was changed to allowimmediate re-election. In 2014, hemanaged 61 per cent.

These emphatic victories —and a buoyant economy led by acommodities supercycle — havemade him arguably the region’smost successful socialist presidentever. His redistributionist policieshave improved living standardsin one of the region’s poorestnations and have gone a long wayto dissolving enmity betweenopposing camps. Even secessionist

calls in somepockets of theeastern lowlandshave melted away.

“The Morales ofthe first term wasmore attentive tothe internal politicalconflict that put

Bolivia on the edge,” says MartínSívak, an Argentine journalistand author of EvoMorales: TheExtraordinary Rise of the FirstIndigenous President of Bolivia.“Morales now is more attentive tohow the economy goes, which isinteresting, considering he arrivedat the presidency without knowingwhat generated inflation.”

Morales’ anti-capitalistrhetoric remains fierce. yet hismacroeconomic and fiscal policies,and improved relations with thecountry’s private sector, have fedhis success. Booming gas suppliesto Argentina and Brazil, coupledwith mineral exports, helped tosustain average economic growthin Bolivia of 5.1 per cent a yearafter Morales took office in 2006.

By nationalising thehydrocarbons sector to boost staterevenues and fuel a consumerboom, Bolivia’s public spendinghas been characterised bylargesse. The country has its firsttelecommunications satellite, andin La Paz a mass-transit cable-car system is in line for a $400mexpansion.

“Some said Bolivia was dyingbut the state should not participatein the national economy,”Morales says, referring to 1985’shyperinflation. “Now, we are betterthan before and better than otherLatin American countries.”

Moreover, a poll in August byIpsos Bolivia put his approvalratings at 70 per cent. The flipsideto some is that 54 per cent of thosequestioned supported a change inthe constitution to allow anotherterm for the man who enteredpolitics as a coca trade unionist inthe tropics of El Chapare.

“I come from extreme povertyand moved to El Chapare to survive,not to become president,” Moralessays. “After so many marches I’vearrived at the presidency withoutexpecting it. And that the peopleask for my ratification is somethingunprecedented, historic, so I willalways be subject to the will of thepeople.”

MAS is a strong force, thoughless popular than its leader,and is pushing ahead with thereferendum. yet here is wheremany believe the peasantpresident will fall flat.

As dissatisfaction mountswhile the commodity bonanzashrinks, the divided oppositionmay manage to unite against acommon cause. “Evo will win butby a much smaller margin than inprevious elections,” says a seniorMAS member. “Here is whereEvo’s exceptionality will fade away.”

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‘When Moralesarrived in officehe didn’t knowwhat generated

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called process of change is one ofits greatest weaknesses,” warnsSívak, the Argentine journalist.

Félix Patzi, opposition governorof La Paz, was Morales’ educationminister but resigned from theMAS in 2010. He left, he says,when he realised “there was a sortof authoritarianism based on theidea of one person staying eternallyin power”.

In one mistimed incident,the president was caught on asmartphone camera asking oneof his aides to tie his shoelacesup. “Morales feels he is thecountry’s patron,” says SamuelDoria Medina, a businessman andpolitician who ran for presidentagainst him three times.

Still, the senior MAS memberbelieves Morales “is the onlyelement of cohesion of indigenous,peasant and social movements,and there is a strong belief that heis the only one who could managethis country”.

Not a few capitalists believethat too. “We should be thankfulwe have Evo. Marginalisationwas a time-bomb and he hasforced us to share the pie,” says abusinessman who did not want tobe named. “The government maybe controlling, with democraticfailures, but here we may need thatto have stability. People are willingto sacrifice some democracy formore economic autonomy.”

on his way to the football pitch,Morales shrugs off criticism thathe is a “dictator, an authoritarian”.“I have to deal with people callingme that,” he says. “I reply with hardwork. The opposition should not bebothered, as there is nothing moredemocratic than asking the peoplethrough a referendum. “If thepeople say no, I’ll leave happily. Ifthey say yes, I’ll contribute with theexperience I’ve accumulated so far.”

Wearing the number 10 shirt,he leads the presidential team toa crushing victory over the localside led by an opposition mayor.His cheering supporters brandishbanners reading “Evo 2020-2025”.

As the president looks to add toa hat-trick, the commentator yells,“Morales wants more! Isn’t hesatisfied yet?”

As his fourth goal goes in, itwould seem not. ■

Even if Bolivia’s naturalresources-driven economy can rideout the end of the commoditiesboom, government revenues fromgas exports are on course to fall by30 per cent this year alone.

“I am not worried at all aboutthe economy,” Morales tells me.But even with almost 50 per centof GDP stocked in foreign reservesand a $48bn projected investmentplan to keep the economyhumming, any collapse in incomewould cripple his ability to spendon satisfying the demands of hiskey voter bases.

“He won’t have the consensushe had when the economy wasstronger,” says Fernando Molina, acommentator and columnist. “Hispower base is now more middle-class than peasant, so he needsmore economy than revolution.”

Some fear less money also meansless democracy and a crackdownon dissent. Facing decliningincomes, the president whopledged to protectthe Pachamama,or Mother Earth,has opened upseven of Bolivia’s22 protected areas for hydrocarbonexploration, dismissing criticism.

Marco Gandarillas, executivedirector of the Bolivian Centre forDocumentation and Information(Cedib), says “democracy isturning into a problem” as itchallenges these explorationplans. The organisation has beenreprimanded for criticising thegovernment; vice-president AlvaroGarcía Linera even called it a bodyof “green Trotskyites”.

These attitudes are alienatinga swath of the president’spolitical base, with some voicingenvironmental and other concerns.“He has betrayed the indigenousmovement and the people,” saysAlejandro Almaráz, a formerdeputy land minister who hasdistanced himself from Morales.

Such a climate is raising fearsof a tilt towards autocracy. Thegovernment has even admittedit has restricted its advertisingthrough certain critical mediaoutlets, while a cult of personalityaround Morales is growing amidthe lack of a serious challenger.“The personalisation of the so-

IntervIeW Evo MoralEs

Going for goalnumber four—Morales is stilldependent ona referendum

‘His power base is nowmoremiddle-classthanpeasant, so he

needsmore economythan revolution’

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Agiant newmuralembellishesthe interiorof one ofBolivia’sfinance

ministry buildings; one thatwould have made the Mexicansocialist artist Diego Rivera glowwith pride — and wince withembarrassment. In “The Treasureand the Process of Change”, acombative indigenous figureattended by a victorious Andeancondor proudly crushes a baldeagle. Beside her, smiling childrengaze at a 100 boliviano note ascoffers overflow with gold.“What socialism wants is

for people to live better, not foreveryone to live in poverty,” saysLuis Arce, the finance minister.The mural chimes with

one reality of Bolivia’s leftistrevolution, which, as it growsmore inclusive and autonomous,is underpinned in part by aconsumer boom.In a country that was once

a byword for grinding poverty,impoverished indigenous peopleare gaining in economic clout.

Anewcablecar linkwith LaPazhas been aboon to peoplefrom thepoorer ElAlto

The leftist revolutionhas givenindigenouspeople newspendingpower, expanding themiddle classas the consumer boomcontinues— for now. ByAndres Schipani

Upwardlymobile

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Furnishings fornewlywealthyAymarahomes,above; socialistartmural inthe financeministry, below

Economy And SociEty

853%Growth in restauranttakings, 2005-2014

Source: Bolivian

miniSTry of finance

600%Growth in supermarket

takings, 2005-2014

Source: Bolivian

miniSTry of finance

since 2006, when evo Moralesbecame president, the economy —a big exporter of gas and minerals— has almost tripled in size.

This growth, coupled withprudent macroeconomic andexpansive fiscal policies, hasfinanced popular welfare andpoverty-relief programmesthat have reached millions ofBolivians. some $500m a yearhas been funnelled into cash-transfer schemes for elderlypeople, schoolchildren andpregnant women, for example.Populist actions such as thesehave contributed to a substantialincrease in spending.

“There is a leftist ideology withan indigenous twist — the idea of‘living well’ — while conspicuousconsumption increases among thecountry’s emerging middle classes.These [ideas] can cohabit heretoday,” says Amaru VillanuevaRance, a director at the Centrefor social Investigation (CIs), aresearch agency attached to thevice-presidency.

That cohabitation is in evidenceat Multicine, acinema and fast-food complex inLa Paz’s thrivingsopocachineighbourhood.

It is noon on

Wednesday, and AnaTapia, an indigenouswoman who wearstraditional dress, andher two young sons aredeciding which movieto watch. The familyuses the new cable car from thepoor satellite city of el Alto toreach sopocachi. They make thistrip every week, so their viewingchoices are becoming limited.“Let’s see Pixels—we’ve alreadywatched Fantastic Four andMinions,” says Tapia’s nine-year-old boy. “We’ve learnt to enjoy this,as things are going well,” Tapia, apastry-seller, tells me.

Certainly, the country’s grossdomestic product per capitajumped from $1,200 in 2006 to

$3,000 last year, according todata from the planning ministry.Between 2005 and 2013, 2.6mpeople joined the middle class,according to figures fromBolivia’s social and economicPolicy Analysis unit (uDAPe).Meanwhile, poverty rates halvedbetween 2006 and 2013, saysGeorge Gray Molina, a Bolivianeconomist at the uN DevelopmentProgramme (uNDP).

Preliminary data from uNDPand Bolivia’s vice-presidencyshow how the middle-income

stratum grew toencompass 56 percent of the populationby 2013. Althoughnearly two-thirds ofthose are at risk ofslipping back, that isstill unprecedented in

a country where historically themajority has been poor.

“When the money wasconcentrated in a few handsthere was no consumption,”explains finance minister Arce,observing that Bolivia’s nationalminimum wage has soared by276 per cent since 2006. “Weredistributed income, generatedinternal demand and you have thephenomenon you can see now.”

Companies such as CerveceríaBoliviana Nacional (CBN),the country’s main brewer, arehappy — bars and restaurantsare multiplying, and beerconsumption increased from 25.8litres per capita in 2005 to 34.4 in2013, CBN reports.

“Bolivia’s sustained economicgrowth over the past decadeand the upward mobility of thecountry’s population have had apositive impact on consumption,”says hernán Atella, generalmanager of CBN, which is majorityowned by global brewer AB InBev.

Despite what one commentatorcalled Morales’ “hormonaldistaste” for the us, the boom hehas helped foster is prompting thearrival of American companieshappy to take advantage of it.

Krispy Kreme, the us-baseddoughnut maker, has announcedplans to open a dozen storesin Bolivia. “We believe this isthe ideal time to be entering,”said Dan Beem, president

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Commercialhubs: El Prado,La Paz’smainstreet, above;the centralmarket inSucre, below

2.6mBolivianswho joinedthemiddle class,

2005-2013

Source: Social, economic

Policy analySiS uniT

$3,000GDPper capita in 2014,up from$1,200 in 2006

Source: miniSTry

of PlanninG

144%increase in sales offlights, 2005-2014

Source: GovernmenTDaTa

of the company’sinternational division.

Kurt Koenigsfestis chief executive ofBancosol, a bankthat specialises inmicroloans. “Thereis now a differentlogic compared to when we wereisolated from what happened inChile or Peru or Argentina, whereit is normal for people to go theshopping mall, to the movies. Wehave that here now,” he says.

he adds that the indigenousAymara tradition of saving isgiving way to another culture:“People have money and they useit. If it’s not enough, they ask forcredit — for example, to buy aflight to go to santa Cruz and seerelatives. That is novel.”

The informal economy is huge,however. A significant number ofAymaras in el Alto and La Paz,for example, trade in all kinds ofwares, from cars to electronics andclothes. Many of them live off theproceeds of smuggledgoods. Koenigsfestestimates nine out of 10new jobs in Bolivia are inthe informal sector.

Nielsen, the market

research group, says asBolivia’s middle class isable to satisfy its basicneeds more easily, itis searching for “newalternatives, henceexpanding and refiningconsumption”.

That might explain why thesale of flights grew by 144 percent between 2005 and 2014,according to government data.The new willingness to spend mayalso account for restaurant andsupermarket sales in the sameperiod leaping 853 per cent and600 per cent respectively, says thefinance ministry.

Many Bolivians are takingadvantage of growth opportunities.In La Paz, samuel Doria Medina,son of a well-known oppositionpolitician, opened the upmarketJardín de Asia restaurant in2013. he puts politics to one side.“Business is business,” he says, “andin the current scenario, business isgoing very well.”

While finance ministerArce maintains that“capitalism is in crisis”and critics “do not knowwhat socialism is”, someanalysts counter that the

Bolivian government’s economicstrategy is simply another exampleof state capitalism — a rentiermodel fuelling populist measures.

“This current situation is theapex of consumerism, a consumerbubble,” says economist GonzaloChávez, who teaches at theCatholic university in La Paz.

his students traditionallywould have been drawn only fromBolivia’s white and mixed-raceelite, but more and more young

people of indigenousdescent are enteringthe institution. “Donot call this socialism,please,” Chávezinstructs. “have somerespect for Marx.” n

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Theunsupported the reformsthrougha ruraldevelopmentprogramme(acciónandina)basedon fourpilotprojects. Thevillagerswereasked to state theirpriorities,ofwhicheducationwas thefirsteverywhere.Theybuilt their ownschools andsometimesevenpaidthe teacher. Theprogrammealsoembracedpreventivehealthcare,built around thecoca leafpracticesof theyatiri (traditionalhealers);the farmingofnewlyacquiredplotsof land, and training inbasictechnical skills. The resultswerepromising, butbefore theprojectcouldbeextended to thewholecountry itwashaltedbyamilitarycoup, backedbysomeuSelements,innovember 1964. eighteenyearsofmilitarydictatorshipfollowed,duringwhich thepaceof indigenous incorporationslowedandsuspicionandhostilitybetween theclasses increased.Whendemocracywas restored

in 1982, a fragileelectedgovernmentinheritedashatteredeconomy,riddledwithdrug traffickingandgalloping inflation. iwas sentby thesecretary-general tohelp restorethe situation.Thatwas the timeof theWashingtonconsensusand internationalmonetaryfundstructural reforms.unlessBolivia

conformed totheseconditionsit couldexpectnoexternal aidand, in 1985, thenext governmenthad to introduceaswingeingprogrammeof

reforms. inflationstoppedandsomesectorsprofited, but ruralindigenouspeopleandpeasantfarmersdidnot. Theysurvivedthroughsubsistence farmingbuttheevident inequalityheightenedthedeeply rootedsenseofgrievanceanddiscrimination.in 1993,GonzaloSánchezde

lozadabecamepresident andintroduced far-reaching reforms,among themdecentralisationofauthorityand resources throughthe lawofpopularparticipation(1994). i had retired fromtheunandwas living inanandeancommunity inahouse ihadbuiltonlakeTiticaca.asunpaidadviserto thegovernment, iwascloselyinvolved in theprocessandsawthetransformational effects locally.Paradoxically, Sánchezde

lozadasowed theseedsofhisownpoliticaldemise. itwaspopularparticipation that enabledevomorales tomusterwidespreadindigenous support andoustthepresidentearly inhis secondincumbency, becomingpresidenthimself in 2006.Therewereotherfactors, suchas thewidespreadcoverageof cellularphones thatvastly improvedcommunicationsbetweenregionsandhelpedsynchronise indigenousoppositionmovements thatbrought thecountry toa standstill.Bolivia’s social structures today

are immenselydifferent fromthoseiobserved in 1960.Themiddleclasshas swollen;most recentobserversattribute this tomorales’ policies,but again therewerecontributoryfactors. Themainonewas therapid rise incommodityprices; forthefirst time indecades, Boliviahadabudget surplus, providingresources tofinanceambitiousprogrammes. ButBolivia’s economyremainsheavilydependentoncommodities, so thecurrentdeclinein theirprices raises thequestionof future sustainability.apaperbyemmerichDaviesandTuliafalletiof theuniversityofPennsylvania,presented to thereddeeconomíaPolíticadeaméricalatina, aresearchnetwork, inuruguay inJuly2015, argues that “profoundinstitutional reformsweredesignedand implementedbefore theelectionofevomorales”. Theauthorsalsosuggest theprocesshasdeclinedsince the recent “left turn”inBolivianpolitics.Thus, progress in thesituation is

not simplyamiracleachievedoverthepast 10yearsbutdatesback tothe 1952 revolution. it hasnotbeenasmoothprocess, interruptedbythe 1964militarycoup, the 18yearsofdictatorship, thegrowthofnarco-traffickingand theadverse socialimpactof structural adjustmentin 1985. favourabledevelopmentshave includeda rise incommoditypricesand increasingmigrationfromrural areas tourbancentres,where socialmobility is easier.rather thana revolutionof

thepast decade,wearewitnessinganevolutionovermore thanhalfa century.n

DameMargaretAnsteewas the firstfemale under-secretary-general oftheUNand former adviser to theBolivian government

onmyfirst field trip asheadof theunmission toBoliviain 1960, i accompanied the

minister for rural affairs to a remoteaymaravillage todistributenewland titles authorisedunder therecentagrarian reform law.Thiswasanoutcomeof the 1952 revolutionbybourgeois revolutionaries,aimedat incorporating theindigenousmajority into all aspectsof national life. othermeasuresincludeduniversal suffrage,educationandhealth for all, andnationalisationof themines.Weweregreetedbyacolourful

procession, ledby the jilakata(villagechief) bearinghis silverembossedstaffof command,followedbyhomespunhenchmen,cholitas twirlingflamboyantbellskirts, their bowlerhats at therequisite coquettishangle, andamotleygroupofmusiciansplayinghauntingmusiconavarietyofandean instruments. Tomyhorror,the jilakata fell tohis kneesandkissedmyhand.Hehadnever seenawhitewomanbefore. Suchascenewouldneveroccur today. itwasalreadyananachronismthen.

Progress is notsimply amiracleachievedoverthepast 10years

Economy And SociEty

Themoralesrevolutionispartofalongerhistoricalprocess,saysformerundiplomatmargaretAnstee

DameMargaretin her Bolivianroomon theWelshMarches

Photos:reuters;gettyim

ages

f t. com /n ew - bo l i v i a | 2 3

Power tothe peopleBoliviawants to become the energyheart of SouthAmerica. Butwill previous exploration failuresstymie its ambition? ByJames Wilson

Daylight wasfading onBolivia’ssouthernborder andthe flameswere dying

down on the pyre where a babyllama had been sacrificed. thecountry’s president, evo morales,was concluding a ceremonymarking the handover, in august,of one of the biggest investmentsyet in the country’s gas sector.

as seven trucks of liquefiedpetroleum gas rolled out of thegran Chaco plant, bound forParaguay, morales hailed “the startof an industrialisation that is goingto give lots of hope to Bolivians”.

the construction of the $700mgran Chaco natural gas liquidsseparation plant is the latestconsequence of what is arguablythe single most important act ofmorales’ nine-year presidency:the nationalisation of Bolivia’s oiland gas sector. With that sweepingstep, Bolivia took control of itsmost important natural resourceand scaled back the role of foreigninvestors including total, repsol,Petrobras and Bg group to that ofjunior partners of yPFB, the stateenergy company.

Bolivia has trumpeted thesuccess of increasing both gasexports and domestic consumption.But now yPFB’s managementof Bolivia’s hydrocarbons andthe morales administration’sstrategy are under perhaps morescrutiny than at any time sincethe dust settled on the 2006nationalisations. Falling gas pricesare shrinking the revenues on

Thecountry’soilandgassectorwas

nationalisedunderEvo

Morales; right,thepresident

opens theGranChacoplant

which the government and manyregions have come to rely.

Bolivia’s ambition, reliant ongas much more than its smalloil reserves, is to develop its roleas the “energy heart of southamerica”, a position its geographyand resources should allow it tofulfil. Pipelines carry gas to Braziland argentina, with plans toextend sales to neighbours. alvarogarcía Linera, the influential vice-president, even raised the prospectof exports to Chile.

But after years in whichcritics say Bolivia has neglectedexploration — and “milked thecow” in the words of one sectorexecutive — yPFB is having tolead an accelerated campaign tofind reserves to underpin contractrenewals. it also has to maintainand expand gas production.Contrary to government confidence,some analysts and industry insidersexpect production to start fallingsoon from its current level of about60m cubic metres a day.

“the real challenge is to be ableto manage reserves,” says Carlos

Photo:reuters

Delius, an industry entrepreneurand former head of the CBhe,Bolivia’s hydrocarbons and energyassociation. “if Bolivia were aprivate company, it would be introuble, because it is not growingits reserves portfolio.”

Luis alberto sánchez, theenergy minister, says governmentprojections point to a risingsurplus from 2018. “We know theprojections. i do not expect bigproblems.”

investing more in explorationand production are not yPFB’s onlystrategic options.Bolivia is makingunprecedentedinvestmentsin a suite ofpetrochemicalplants aimed atkickstarting anindustrial basefounded on gas. an ammonia andurea plant to make fertiliser isunder construction in an $877minvestment. guillermo achá,yPFB’s president, is also promotingplans for plastics processing plantsin the coming decade.

these are ambitious projects.all told, yPFB has a $30bninvestment programme for the next10 years. “these are astronomicalsums, never before seen in theBolivian economy,” says sánchez.

the industrialisation strategyis coupled with efforts to buildpower generation capacity. theidea is to get more value out ofgas in processed, rather than raw,

form. rené orellana, the planningminister, says Bolivia plans toinvest almost $9.6bn in generation,noting that exporting electricityto Brazil and argentina would bemore profitable than exportingunprocessed commodities.

“even if we have an increasein internal demand for electricityas our industries grow, we wouldstill be able to deliver significantelectricity to our neighbours.By 2020, we are planning toincrease our electric energy supplyto around 4,800mW from the

1,600mWwecurrently produce,”he says.

much dependson yPFB gettingbang for the extrabucks it intends toput into exploration.Bolivia’s gas

reserves, which had to be adjusteddown dramatically about six yearsago on technical grounds, stand atabout 10.5tn cubic feet. speaking atan industry conference in augustin santa Cruz, Bolivia’s oil and gascapital, achá said exploration wasa priority. he made clear he expectsforeign companies to take part inthe drive to lift reserves to 11.5tcfin 2021 and 18tcf in 2025. thesefigures include the depletion ofexisting reserves.

given that nationalisation leftthe government “take” from somegas fields at 82 per cent, Boliviahas not been good at incentivisingforeign investment. For many

companies, it is one thing to makethe most of their sunk investments,but quite another to extend theirBolivian exposure. if Boliviaproves an unreliable gas supplierfor partners such as Brazil, it maybring more competition upon itselfin the shape of LNg imports. Brazilis stepping up investment in LNginfrastructure, although industryinsiders in Bolivia say the pipelinebetween the two countries remainsa powerful advantage, and do notforesee that opportunities to sell asmuch gas as possible will disappear.

as Bolivia responds to theneed to promote exploration,a series of government decreesthis year has tilted some rulesin favour of investment. mostcontroversially, the prospect ofdrilling in protected landscapeswas raised. that has sparkedunease among environmentalistspreviously sympathetic to morales’administration, but sánchez insistsa very small percentage — 0.04 percent — of the protected areas is atpotential risk.

Claudia Cronenbold, presidentof the CBhe, says the changesare “positive”, but much hangs ona long-anticipated law offeringinvestment incentives, which thegovernment is expected to unveil inoctober. sánchez expects it to “be aturning point that will allow Boliviato increase reserves, productionand income”, and says his talks withthe industry suggest investmentwill be attracted.

Privately, some executives aresceptical. Cronenbold says the law“would have been more opportunea year or 18 months ago. today itis more and more difficult for it tohave the required impact [becauseof prices]”.

Delius warns that Bolivianeeds to be aware of its role in theinternational oil and gas landscape.With the industry in flux andforeign investors becoming choosy,Bolivia “has to put itself in context”,he says. “it is not the centre of theworld.We are not in a position todictate terms to anyone.”n

YPFB, thestate energycompany, is toinvest $30bn inthenext10years

‘If Boliviawere aprivatecompany, itwould be introuble’

Oil anD GaS

26 | f t . com /n ew - Bo l i v i a

Kings ofthe hillBolivia’s powerful but informalminingco-operatives are emblematic of a sectorthat is yet to fully enter the 21st century.ByJames Wilson

Sometimes themining industryhits a mother lode,a body of ore sorich that it shapesan entire nation.Five hundred

years after it began to yield theastonishing quantities of silver thatbankrolled the Spanish empire,the Cerro Rico mountain in Potosícontinues to exert a powerful holdover Bolivia.

Each morning, hundreds ofPotosí’s men, and boys, streamup Calle Hernández — perhapsstopping to buy dynamite or apickaxe handle from one of thestreet’s gloomy, hole-in the-wallstores selling mining supplies —towards Cerro Rico’s near-perfectlytriangular silhouette.

After chewing coca leaves — thecatch-all way to foster strength,numb the pangs of hunger and, nodoubt, ward off fear and pain —these miners disappear into CerroRico’s myriad tunnels, where somewill stop also to offer a prayer forprotection to the figure of a god ofthe mines known as El Tío.

“Here, outside the mine, wehave God,” says Enrique Canaviri,a 40-year-old miner at CerroRico, which means Rich Hill. “Butinside...” He tails off.

At the slavery-fuelled height ofthe colonial-era silver obsession,when Potosí was one of the world’s

Miners onCerroRicoheave rockfromwhichsilverwill be

extracted

largest cities — comparable toLondon or Paris in splendour —this was known as the “mountainthat ate men” — a complex of minesso dangerous that many who wentin never came out alive.

Today, when thousands ofminers still subsist on scratchingsof lead, silver, tin and zinc thatremain to be recovered from theentrails of Cerro Rico, it appears anominous indictment of the state ofBolivia’s mining industry.

The peak itself is crumbling: itshoneycombed insides are in dangerof collapse and the government hashad to act to repair a gaping holethat developed near its summit.

Still, miners like Canaviri, whoorganise themselves into co-operatives, chance their luck andtheir lives inside the mountain,chipping away with tools andmethods that would make modernmining companies shudder. “Youhardly make any money and yousacrifice your lungs,” he says.

Bolivian mining, says CésarNavarro, the country’s miningminister and a native of Potosí,exists “in three different centuries”.The co-operative miners of Potosíare virtually in the 19th century.The state miner, Comibol, is barelyemerging from the 20th. Only thefew international miners in thecountry use 21st-century methods.

Shaped by Cerro Rico’s heritage,Bolivia is a mining nation. Gas

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brings in more foreign exchangebut mining — for silver, tin andmuch more — runs through thehistory, politics and social structureof the country.

The tin-mining barons suchas Simón Patiño — “the AndeanRockefeller” — were the ultimatearbiters of Bolivia’s fragiledemocracy in the early 20thcentury. The revolts against theirpower shaped subsequent waves ofnationalisations.

Since EvoMorales came tooffice in 2006, the pendulum inBolivian mining has again swungaway from the traditional miningoligarchs and towards a dominantrole for the state.

under Morales, and as in thegas sector, someforeign interestswere nationalised.Only a small groupof foreign-ownedmines remain, ofwhich the mostimportant is SanCristóbal, a zinc,lead and silver mineowned by Japan’s Sumitomo.

This scant internationalpresence in itself is remarkable,coming at a time when demand forcommodities was voracious andminers were scouring the globe foropportunities. Neighbours such asPeru and Chile were showered withinvestment during the same period.

But even more singular inBolivia is the huge role of the co-operative sector: the miners likePotosí’s Canaviri who work away

at seams that bigger companieswould long since have consideredexhausted.

Many mining countries havegroups of informal or artisanalminers, but Bolivia’s co-operativesstand out for the size of theirlabour force — perhaps 90 percent of some 140,000 miners inthe country — and their relatedpolitical clout.

The ranks of the co-operativeswere swelled historically by wavesof layoffs frommore establishedmining operations, as during theinternational tin price crash ofthe 1980s, an event that scarredBolivianmining. Recent highmetalsprices also drew in fortune-seekers.

in some ways, the presence ofthe co-operativesis a safety valve inthe Bolivian labourforce, offering workto miners whowould otherwisehave little. Yetthey are a force tobe reckoned withwhen they consider

themselves traduced.in 2006, with conflict erupting

between co-operative miners andComibol over control of resources,the government put thousands ofco-operative miners on the stateminer’s payroll to ease tension.Senior officials now complain ofoverstaffing at some state mines.

And in July, Potosí miners,angry at what they see as a lackof investment by the Moralesgovernment, organised a regional

blockade that cut the city off forweeks. dynamite-bearing minersalso marched to La Paz.

Today, with commodityprices well down, Bolivia’smining industry is in a complexsituation. The outlook for theindustry suggests job cuts at manycompanies and fewer prospectsfor co-operatives to make a living— and potentially more anger andunrest.

The extra burdens heaped onComibol’s main operating unitshave, admits Navarro, affectedproductivity and are likely to takemore of a toll at today’s low metalsprices. “it was a necessary politicalmeasure [but] if you see it from thecommercial and economic point ofview it was a bad decision,” he says.

Javier diez deMedina, whoworks for San Cristóbal and alsorepresents an association of mid-sized (and international) miningcompanies, says governmentsbefore Morales’ also failed todevelop mining policies.

Since the 1985 tin collapse, “noone took care to see how they couldimprove themining sector,” he says.Geological information is scarce:Navarro says 19 per cent of thecountry is mapped, with a goal ofcovering 35 per cent by 2020.

One foreign miner suggestsMorales is frustrated with theresults achieved by the state miningsector and is resolved to make morespace for international investment.“He needs us,” the miner says.

indeed, diez says a “turningpoint” was reached in relations with

Centuries ofmininghaveleftCerroRico, left, ina dangerousstate;workersstill offerprayers to ElTío, above.Protests in LaPaz, below

‘We aresocialists. Butnowwealsoneedyou toworkwithus’

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miningforeign miners in July, when AlvaroGarcía Linera, the vice-president,publicly ruled out any state grab forSan Cristóbal.

“We are socialists… but nowwe also need you to work withus,” García Linera said, invokingvladimir Lenin in arguing thata revolutionary government alsoneeded foreign companies tomaintain production. A new spiritof pragmatism may prevail, inspite of what Navarro says are thecountry’s “bad memories” of theprivate sector.

“Evo has said that this must bethe five-year term for sowing andthe next one will be time to reap.There is not going to be a miningindustry unless there is concurrentinvestment between the public andthe private sectors,” he says.

Some in the sector wantthe government to offer moreinvestment incentives for mining,but a big problem — perhapseven more so in mining than inthe oil and gas sector — is theunwillingness of companies tocommit decades of investment tocountries with Bolivia’s history ofinstability.

As one miner says: “There aremany other places to go in a lowprice environment.”

Back in Potosí, Canaviri says thefollowing day he will again buy hisdynamite for the week and ventureinto the tunnels of the Cerro Rico.But life for its miners, he says, is “ina bad way. in the mountain there isnot much metal left. it is finishingand we do not know where to go.” n

As if the 10bn tonnes ofsalt that lie in the Uyunisalt flats’ blindingly white

landscape werenot enough, vastdeposits of lithiumare stored in thebrine below.

Boliviaholds9mtonnesofpotentiallymineable lithiumresources,accordingto theUSGeologicalSurvey,muchof itbeneaththeSalardeUyuni. Itsreserves farexceedthoseof theUS,ChinaandAustralia.

Lithium is one of the lightestmetals on Earth; one of a handful ofelements born during the Big Bang13bn years ago. Lithium batteriespower most of the world’s 6bnmobile phones, and the BostonConsulting Group estimates thatby 2020 the market for electric carbatteries in China, Japan, the USand Europe alone will be $25bn.As Tesla Motors builds a lithiumbattery “gigafactory” in Nevada,Bolivia is keen to compete.

A $19m pilot plant run by state-owned mining company Comibolis already producing potassiumchloride and lithium carbonate;

the latter used in drugs to treatbipolar disorder. It aims to export168,000 and 10,000 metric tonnes

annually, between2021 and 2025respectively.

Bolivia doesnot want simplyto export theraw material,seeking partnersto help them make

batteries and even cars. Thegovernment has held talks withFrench, Japanese, and SouthKorean companies, among others.

There are growing fears thoughabout the environmental impactof large-scale exploitation on thislandscape, pristine for millennia, aswell as on water resources. Comibolsays it intends to pour $790m intoextracting evaporates nationwidein the next five years and willexport 5,000 metric tonnes oflithium cathodes by 2021.

“If Bolivia can producelithium carbonate it can produceanything,” says Marcelo Castro,manager of Comibol’s Uyuni plant.“We want, in a few years, to be ableto drive a Bolivian electric car.”

Andres Schipani

Vast lithiumreserves found

at Bolivia’sSalar deUyunicanbeused forthe batteries of

electric cars

Extra charge Salt flat stores battery power

As Tesla buildsa lithium

‘gigafactory’,Bolivia is keen

to compete

30 | f t . com /n ew - Bo l i v i a

Bettingthe farmIts vast soya cropputs SantaCruzprovinceon the front line of anagrarian revolution.ByBenedict Mander

Hopping off ahorse-drawncart in theisolatedMennonitecommunityof Manitoba,

Johan Peters admits it isinconvenient that farmers like himare forbidden to use rubber tyreson their tractor wheels, fitting themwith metal teeth for grip instead.

Even so, the ultra-conservativereligious group in Bolivia’s easternlowlands is thriving. Strugglingto express himself in Spanish,Peters resorts to a virtually extinctdialect of German that survives in ahandful of Mennonite communitiesin the fertile plains of Santa Cruzprovince to explain the reason fortheir success: soya.

“This is the most productivefarming area in Bolivia,” says JacobFehr, the vice-president of the moreliberal neighbouring Mennonitecolony of Chihuahua, founded 26years ago. Over the past decade, hiscommunity of about 220 familieshas more than doubled the amountof land they own and farm to25,000 hectares, largely thanksto the recent boom in commodityprices.

These farmers are on the frontline of an agrarian revolution inBolivia that in recent decades hasattracted Japanese and Russianimmigrants as well as large-scale investments from Braziland Argentina. This has drivenexplosive growth in the economyand population of Santa Cruzprovince, whose eponymous capitalis one of the fastest-growing citiesin the world and now the largestin the country, with around 2minhabitants — nearly a fifth of thenational population.

Santa Cruz is the powerhouse ofBolivian agriculture. It representsabout 60 per cent of nationalfarming yield, with soya accountingfor more than half of the province’sproduction. With neighbouringArgentina, Brazil and Paraguayalready saturated with soya crops,the potential for expansion inSanta Cruz, where much land isunderutilised, has led some tosee it as South America’s nextagricultural frontier.

Such hopes have only beenstrengthened by the fall in globaloil prices, which has forced energy-producing countries such as Bolivia

The isolatedMennonitecommunity

ofManitoba isthriving due

to commodityprices

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to seek alternative and moresustainable forms of income. Withsoya alone representing Bolivia’sthird-biggest source of foreignexchange after gas and mining,the government has announcedambitious plans to boost the area ofland under cultivation from 2.7mhectares last year to 4.5m hectaresby 2020.

“There is enormous potentialhere,” says Gabriel dabdoub, aprominent businessman in SantaCruz, who believes the agriculturalsector cannot flourish withoutsupport from the government toboost productivitylevels, which lagfar behind theagricultural giantsof Brazil andArgentina. Butdoubts remain asto how committedthe governmentis to promoting agriculture, andwhat kind. “It is the million-dollarquestion,” says dabdoub.

René Orellana, Bolivia’splanning minister, said in aninterview that of $48bn in plannedpublic investments by 2020, thegovernment is aiming to investmore than $5bn in agriculture,and about $2.5bn will be spenton building agro-industrialcomplexes. he emphasised thatthe investments would be focusedon strengthening small producersin the western highlands and non-

traditional exports with high addedvalue, rather than the soya farmersof Santa Cruz.

Still, relations between biglandowners and the governmenthave improved a great deal sincethe tense early years of EvoMorales’ presidency. his needto maintain support among hispower base, the poor indigenouspopulation in the highlands,led to serious clashes with themore affluent citizens of SantaCruz, who have always yearnedfor greater autonomy from LaPaz. “We realised that we were

not going to getanywhere fighting,so we said, let’stalk,” says JaimeSuárez, a farmerinvolved innegotiations withthe government.nevertheless,

landowners complain thatdialogue has yet to translate intoaction, with bureaucracy posing aparticular problem.

Farmers reel off a long list ofchallenges. Chief among themis legal security, with bittercomplaints about governmentintervention in the export sector.Most also cite the need to improvetechnology, problems accessingcredit, and the land-lockedcountry’s poor infrastructure.

“If we seriously want to openup our agricultural frontier, it

will be necessary to grow ouragro-industrial sector as well,”says José Llano, who heads thecollege of agronomists in SantaCruz. A study co-ordinated byLlano concluded there are almost2m hectares of good agriculturalland in Santa Cruz that liesuncultivated, representing anextra $3.8bn in potential revenuesin addition to the $2.2bn thatthe province’s agricultural sectorcurrently generates.

Reinaldo díaz, presidentof the business chamber forsoya producers in Santa Cruz,emphasises the need to removerestrictions on the use ofbiotechnology, which is not aproblem in Argentina, Brazil andParaguay. “Without biotechnology,it makes it very difficult tocompete with our neighbours,”says díaz. “We want biotechnologyto enter through the front door,

The relentlessexpansionof Bolivianagriculture,above, hascreated someof thehighestdeforestationrates in theworld, below

‘Withoutbiotechnology,itmakes it

verydifficultto compete’

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agriculturenot the back window.” he claimsthat some non-governmentalorganisations have been “brain-washing” people to opposegenetically modified organisms. Asa result, many farmers are usingbiotechnology illegally.

The use of precision agriculturewould also raise productivity,says díaz, especially for smallerfarmers. “Yields are much lowerfor small and medium-sizedproducers,” says Llano.

however, the relentlessexpansion of Bolivian agriculturehas created some of the highestdeforestation rates in the world.This has risen from almost150,000 hectares a year duringthe 1990s to as much as 300,000hectares by 2010. now, officials aretalking of clearing as much as 1mhectares a year, in marked contrastwith the leftwing government’senvironmentalist rhetoric.

Thomas Killeen, anenvironmental scientist, arguesthat Bolivia could increaseits agricultural productiondramatically “without cuttingdown a single tree”. “The countrycould easily double or even tripleproduction with no furtherdeforestation if producers adoptedmodern water managementwhile expanding crops on tounderutilised pastures,” he said.

The barriers to deforestation-free production are largelyfinancial, says Killeen, sincetechnology is capital intensiveand farmers prefer to invest theirmoney in land. To clear a hectareof land costs about $800, whileinstalling efficient irrigationsystems costs about $2,500 perhectare.

“We have to find a balancebetween expanding ouragricultural frontier andincreasing productivity,” saysLlano. Although he supports plansto increase the area of land undercultivation, he points out that bigproductivity gains can be made.

Whatever course the countryadopts, there is no time tolose, says dabdoub. “Themacroeconomy is doing well, andthere are good prospects for thenext couple of years.” But he warnsthat falling commodity pricesand the slowdown in China willeventually take their toll.

“We need to reflect. Thebonanza won’t last forever,”he says.n

inca soldiers ate it to strengthenthem for battle. Nasa said itwasperfect astronaut fare. It has

morenutrients per 100caloriesthan anyother grain andpeoplefromNewYork to Londonpayroughly $10 apound for it.

Quinoa is the originalsuperfood,muchof it grownonBolivia’s highplains byAymaraandQuechua farmers. Oneof themisGuadalupeRamos. She lives inJirira, a cluster of adobehousesbetweenPotosíandOrurowherethe trademarked“royal” quinoa isgrown. “This is thereal thing,” she says,cupping ahandfulof the organicgrains. “Othersmayhavemore but ours is the best.”

Her barb is aimedatneighbouring Peru, now theworld’sbiggest exporter. “I am70years oldand look 50, thanks to eating ourquinoa,” she insists.

Bolivianquinoawas thefirst to gain recognisedorganiccertification and is highlyprized, confirmsPablo Laguna,an anthropologist atMexico’s

MichoacánCollegewhoresearches quinoa. Aid and fairtradeorganisations, aswell asorganic food importers fromdeveloped countries, opened thegate tonichemarkets.

TheUS imports 60per cent ofBolivia’s quinoaproduction; therest goesmostly to Europe. Exportssoared from4,900 tonnes in 2005to 35,000 tonnes in 2013, accordingto theministry of productivedevelopment andplural economy.

Shipments droppedslightly in 2014,to almost 30,000tonnes, valued at$197m.

Theprice paid toBolivianproducersper kilo of organicroyal quinoa also

rocketed: fromunder $1 in 2007to almost $5 last year. Prices havedropped to almost threedollars,somany farmers, likeRamos, arehoarding 46kg bags, hoping for arebound.

“Theymayhave towait awhile,”says Laguna. “There is toomuchquinoabeing sold around theworld right now.”

AndresSchipani

Bolivianquinoawas the

first to gainrecognised

organiccertification

QuinoaAncient superfood,modern success

‘I am70yearsold and look50, thanks to

eatingour quinoa’

photos:AFp/GettyImAGes;reuters

3 4 | f t . com /n ew - Bo l i v i a

Sprawled over ahigh plateau aboveLa paz, el Altois arguably LatinAmerica’s largestindigenous city. Itseems an unlikely

place from which to lobby siliconValley, but volunteers at JaqiAru, a group that promotes theindigenous Aymara language, aredoing just that.over the past year they have

translated almost 24,000 wordsfrom english into Aymara, in thehope of convincing Facebook,the social-networking service, tolaunch a site in the language stillspoken by 2m people. Jaqi Aru (thename means “human language”)says Facebook is already lookingat its work. “our Aymara identitywas marginalised before — thereis an awakening now,” says rubén

Manyethnicgroups,whether on theplateauor intheAmazonbasin, fearextinction

the census also provokeddebate about Bolivia’s “indigenousmajority”: 58 per cent ofrespondents said they did notbelong to any “nation” orindigenous, peasant or native group.Former president and historian

Carlos mesa wrote that “theevident conclusion is that Boliviais not an indigenous countryby majority, but undoubtedly acountry with a very importantindigenous presence”.markomachicao, Bolivia’s

minister of cultures, counters thatthe country is still predominantly anindigenous one. A 2014 report bythe economic Commission for LatinAmerica and the Caribbean saidthat in 2010, 62 per cent of Bolivia’spopulation of roughly 10mwasindigenous. But it also warned 13indigenous groups were on the vergeof “physical or cultural extinction”.

Indigenous groups both largeand small realise theymust takesteps to preserve their identity,writeAndres SchipaniandBenedict Mander

Survivalinstincts

hilari, a co-ordinator with thegroup. “For us, there is no otheralternative to putting our languageand culture at the forefront now.”Bolivia’s new constitution in

2009 deleted the word “republic”from the country’s official name,replacing it with “plurinationalstate”. this was intended partlyto reflect the country’s ethnic andcultural diversity, and Bolivia’snew magna carta recognises threedozen indigenous languages asofficial, as well as spanish.the country’s 2012 census

shows the Quechua are the biggestindigenous group, followed by theAymara. meanwhile, the Guaraní,with a population of almost97,000, are the second-largestminority ethnic group in thelowlands after the 145,000-strongChiquitano Indians. many groupsnumber fewer than 1,000.

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QuechuaSome 1.8m Quechua Indians livein Bolivia, out of more than 10m inthe Andean region, from Colombiadown to Chile and Argentina. TheQuechua live side by side with theAymara on the Bolivian highlandsand it can be difficult to distinguishvisually between their cultures,although they do speak differentlanguages. Many Quechua women,like their Aymara counterparts,wear the distinctive bowler hat.The headwear is said to have beenadopted after a shipment of hatsfor Europeans working on railwaysin Bolivia and Peru in the 1920sturned out to be ill-fitting and weregiven to the locals instead.

AymaraAs if life on the barren Altiplanowasn’t tough enough, the AymaraIndians have spent many of thepast 800 years, since theyestablished themselves in the LakeTiticaca region, under the rule of aforeign power. After beingconquered by the Incas in the late15th century, they were subjectedto semi-slavery under the Spanishempire. Little changed with

GuaraníAfter Jesuit missionaries failed toconvert them, the Guaraní wereeventually subjugated by theBolivian army in 1892. That led totheir acting as guides in the fightagainst their Paraguay brothersin the 1932-35 Chaco war. TheGuaraní entered what is todayBolivia from the east between600 and 800 years ago.

Today, the Guaraní arespread across the departmentsof Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca andTarija, and represent about 2.3per cent of Bolivia’s indigenouspopulation. They fiercely defendtheir independence and theright to speak their nativelanguage.

Bolivia’s independence, untilpressure for agrarian reform in the1950s yielded greater freedom,including the introduction ofuniversal suffrage.

El Alto is the modern centre ofthe Aymara, who number some1.6m. Their most powerfulrepresentative is president EvoMorales, who many say continuestheir struggle today.

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PacawaraThe list of vanishedAmazontribes is longandmaybejoinedby thePacawaraofnorthernBolivia,who livebetween theNegro andPacajuaras rivers, fishing andhuntingbybowandarrow.Youngsters from the tribehavejoined thenearby 1,500-strongChácobo tribe,which speaksa similar language.WigbertoRivero, formerminister ofindigenousaffairs, sayswithonly fivePacawara-speakingmembers left, the group’schancesof survivalareslim.n

Afro-BoliviansRoyal blood runs through theveins of farmer Julio PinedofromLosYungas, a patchof rainforest in theAndes.In 1932, his grandfatherwasnamedKingBonifacio I oftheAfro-Bolivians. Thiswasbecausehewas adirectdescendant of Bonifaz— atribalmonarch fromcentralAfricawho, likemanyothers,was brought to Bolivia asa slave in the 16th century.

Uru-ChipayaAccording to theirmythology,theUru-Chipaya came from

the river Lauca. Surviving theInca empire and the Spanish

conquest, theyhave livedonahigh salt plateauof Bolivia for4,000years— andare thoughtto be theoldest living culturein theAndes. The remaining

2,000members live byirrigating the soilwith river

water, allowing them to farminoneof SouthAmerica’s

harshest environments. Theyfear extinction, however,andhaving to leave theirsettlements, as the Laucais dryingup.Manyyoung

members havemigrated toplaceswhere theymust speakAymaraor Spanish, so elderswarn theUru language could

disappear too.

In late 2007, Pinedowascrowned soleAfro-Bolivianking at a ceremony inLaPaz.He is thought to represent,albeit symbolically, someofthe 30,000poverty-strickenAfro-Bolivianswhomainlylive by growing citrus fruit,bananas, coffee andcoca. Heonce said: “Wemaynot beslaves anymore, butwearestill among thepoorest of thispoor country.”

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JungleBaroque

Three centuries ago, Jesuitmissionariesand indigenouspeople created a raremusical fusion inBolivia’s remote east.

Benedict Mandermeets thePolish priestfighting to preserve this uniqueheritage

Father PiotrNawrot’s faceglows as heexamines acarefully restoredfragment of thescore from a

rare Baroque mass. The fragilescrap had been hidden from thedeveloped world for more thantwo centuries, exposed to theelements in the steamy, insect-infested jungle of eastern Bolivia.

“It was totally accidental thatthe music was found,” says the60-year-old Polish missionary. Themanuscripts were recovered thanksto a drive in the 1980s to restore agroup of Jesuit mission churches,stunning examples of the blendingof Christian architecture andindigenous traditions declared aUnesco world heritage site in 1990.

A similar fusion in the musicfrom the missions is almost moreremarkable. A distinguishedmusicologist, Father Nawrot hasdedicated his life to painstakinglyreconstructing the uniquecollection of more than 10,000pages of music, many of them torn,stained, warped and gnawed bybugs. Many more were simply lost.

The rediscovery cleared theway for a cultural revival that hasthrust Bolivia’s “jungle Baroque” onto the international music scene.Every two years, for a fortnightin April, 50 or more ensembles oflocal and international musiciansgather to play the music in at least160 concerts held in the missionchurches dotted among the rollinghills of the Chiquitanía region. Inthis lush and exuberant landscapethe Baroque aesthetic could hardlybe more appropriate.

Father PiotrNawrot, right,

is restoring10,000pages

of BolivianBaroquemusic,

somethingwithwhich

local people’sidentity isboundup

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The area remains remote.To reach the furthest missionsrequires a day’s drive, much of iton dirt roads, from the provincialcapital of santa Cruz. But theInternational Festival of Americanrenaissance and Baroque Music,first held in 1996, now draws morethan 50,000 concert-goers. To thegreat pride of locals, it is breathingnew life into a rich tradition inBolivia. It began when a handfulof Jesuit priests, who used musicas a tool for evangelisation,discovered the musical talent ofthe Chiquitano people towards theend of the 17th century.

Expelled from south Americaby spain in 1767, in fewer thaneight decades the Jesuits hadsucceeded in instilling a love ofBaroque music among the locals.They taught them to make andplay instruments, and even tocompose, leading some to writelyrics in their own language. Thenative population maintainedthese traditions until well into the20th century.

Ashley solomon is a Britishmusician whose Florilegiumensemble in 2005 made the firstrecording of the music in one ofthe mission churches where it wasoriginally played. solomon wasdeeply moved by the reaction when

his group played an anonymousconcerto from the 1740s at thefestival 10 years ago. “When weplayed the concerto, a lot of theindigenous people sang alongto the melody, which they knewas it is used in their [religious]services. It is remarkable that thearchive music is still alive in thecommunities,” he says.

There were challenges to thatsurvival. The Bolivian governmentsent troops to suppress a group ofdefiant native people who refusedto work on plantations duringthe rubber boom at the turn ofthe 20th century, forcing them toflee the jungle town of Trinidad.According to local lore, the onlypossessions they took with themwere the music scores and theirviolins.

Although the music theylearned from the Jesuitssurvived, it became increasinglyrudimentary. According to FatherNawrot, it is evident from studyingthe archives that, by the 1930s and1940s, a polyphonic mass wouldbe played on just one rustic violinaccompanying one voice. he saysthat, for the locals, the purity ofthe music was less important thankeeping tradition alive.

When Father Nawrot inthe 1990s began to reunitethe manuscripts which werespread across different missioncommunities throughout theregion, one group of elders gavehim “a lesson that no philosophercould ever have given”. “After threehours of discussing my motives forwanting access to the music, theysaid, ‘If this music disappears, wewill all disappear.’ For them thismusic is not only about harmonyand melody, but their cultural andspiritual identity,” he says.

By the late 20th century, themusic was little known outsidethese isolated communities. Butthanks to the music festival, whichis organised by the Pro Art andCulture Association (APAC), thatis no longer the case. The APAC-funded Arakaendar choir, whichbrings local and internationalmusicians together, has introducedBolivian Baroque to some of themost prestigious concert halls in

Music

Music schoolsacross theregion areteachingBolivianBaroque,above. TheJesuitmissionsof Chiquitos,where themusicwas firstplayed, are aUnescoworldheritage site

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Europe. APAC has set up schoolsacross the region in order to buildup a local talent pool that caninterpret the music alongsidethe international professionalsthat participate in the festival.More than 3,000 students in thearea now attend about 30 musicschools, which are modelled onthe internationally renowned “Elsistema” set up in Venezuela byJosé Antonio Abreu, a Venezuelanmusician, economist andpolitician.

“since the firstmusic festivalbegan, we have beenrecovering our musicand our culture,” saysronald Chinchi, 28, amusic teacher in sanIgnacio de Velasco,the largest of the mission towns.“Now, in all the towns, there aremusic schools and the people arebeginning to value their culture. Itis growing all the time.”

All the children want to be partof an orchestra or choir, whichsome locals say is almost like beingselected for the national footballteam.

“We bring the music to life, sothat it does not just exist on paper,”says Alejandro Abapucu, a 25-year-old music teacher in Concepción

The interiorof the churchof the JesuitMissions inConcepción

‘If thismusic

disappears,wewill alldisappear’

who brims with pride for his pupils.“The music forms a part of

our identity. It may have comefrom Europe originally, but wehave made it our own,” saysDavid Mollinedo, the mayor ofConcepción, where the archivesare kept. Now politicians fromoutside the area once evangelisedby the Jesuits want to make theBaroque music their own too.That is the case in san Julián,whose population consists mainly

of recently arrivedimmigrants fromthe impoverishedBolivian highlands.The town’s mayor hasthreatened to set uproad blocks if it is notallowed to participatein next year’s festival.

Despite APAC’s success, andbacking from organisations suchas the Prince Claus Fund of theNetherlands and the UK’s royalCollege of Music, it remainsa huge challenge for a non-profit organisation with limitedresources.

Without the full support of anational government whose anti-colonialist rhetoric sits awkwardlywith the origins of the music, it isno mean feat to put on a festivalthat brings hundreds of musicians

frommore than 20 countries to afar-flung corner of south America.

“There is so much work tobe done that we are seekinginternational financing, not justso that we can keep implementingnew programmes, but to maintainthe ones we have, and so that themission communities themselvescan eventually take the reins ofthis project,” says sarahMansilla, awriter who has recently taken overas president of APAC.

That is not to mention the factthat little more than a tenth of thearchives has so far been edited,even though Father Nawrot hasalready published 36 volumes ofmusic, large chunks of which hehad to compose himself as pageswere missing. Four more volumeswill be presented at the next festivalin April 2016.

“I am not only interested intranscribing and understanding themusic, but also in providing newmusic for the festival so it can beclaimed every time that there willbe music that has never been heardbefore, and, just as important, forthis music to be interpreted byBolivians,” says Father Nawrot,who is the festival’s artistic director.“There is so much music in thearchives that it will be impossible tohear it all in my lifetime.”n

Thecountry is looking to push its tourismsector upmarketwith better infrastructure,luxuryhotels andeven glamping.ByAndres Schipani

Premiumpotential

Not so long agoit was rare tocome acrosslodgings inBolivia thatcould bedescribed as

chic. But the country is realisingthat the richness and variety of itsnatural resources could be pullingin far more tourist income thanthe long-standing backpackermarket brings.

With its reputation for feebleinfrastructure and endless strikes,Bolivia has not always been able toattract some of the wealthy US andEuropean tourists who flow intoneighbouring Peru.

Many parts of Bolivia areoutstandingly beautiful andunspoiled, but dormitory

accommodation and erraticelectricity supplies have put offfffmany travellers.

Now, the government isdetermined to push Bolivia upfrom its ranking of 100 out of141 on the 2015 World EconomicForum’s Travel and TourismCompetitiveness Index.

It is overhauling its tourismdevelopment strategy, with the aimof attracting 7.1m visitors a yearby 2020, up from 3.1m in 2014. Itintends to invest $400m to helpit achieve that, and is seeking afurther $400m from private-sectorinvestors.

“We intend to position Boliviaas a top destination in SouthAmerica,” says tourism ministerMarko Machicao. “It is a synthesisof the region: the Amazon, the P

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Andes, valleys and indigenouscommunities.”

The country even wants tocompete with Argentina and Chilefor the latin American skiingmarket, with the news that thetourism ministry is working withAustrian specialists to develop aski resort on Mount Mururata,35km east of la Paz.

Transport links have beenimproved, allowing a reasonablyeasy passage between the Andesand the Amazon. An upgrade isbeing planned for the airport atSanta Cruz de la Sierra, to turn itinto a regional hub. (The city is thegateway to the Jesuit Missions ofChiquitos, a Unesco world heritagesite.) A leading Middle Easternairline has expressed interest ininvesting in the project, accordingto the tourism ministry.

Marriott and Starwood ofthe US and Accor of France areamong the international groupsthat are building premium hotelsin the country. All three of theseoperators are due to open newhotels next year in the businesscentre of Santa Cruz.

Even glamping — luxurycamping — has reached Bolivia, ashave upscale Airstream caravans,while indigenous communitiesare running eco-lodges and localpeople in the main cities are listingprivate rooms and apartments onAirbnb.

These, and new boutiquehotels, signal that tourism inBolivia wants to go upmarket. n

MountMururata

BRAZIL

200km

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MadidiNational Park

RiverBeni

HuaynaPotosí

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LakeTiticaca

PARAGUAY

ARGENTINA

CHILE

Sucre

LaPaz

AndesAt 3,810mabove sea level,LakeTiticaca is thehighestnavigable lake in theworld.TheUru-Iruito tribemaderafts for the Incas and still fishthe lake for trout (above right)in the reedboats theybuild.

“Wemaybe in theAndesbutwearemen from the lake,water beings rather humanbeings,” says Lorenzo Inda,anUru-Iruito chiefwho livesonTiticaca’s Chisawa island(centre), itselfmadeof reeds.

LagunaZongo (below)is fed by run-off from theHuaynaPotosí glacier,whichis part of theCordilleraRealrange in theAndes.

AmazonThe Madidi national park

(above), in the upper Amazonriver basin, harbours more

than 200 species of mammal,such as this brown capuchin

monkey (right), and nearly1,900 vertebrates, like the

waxy monkey tree frog(Phyllomedusa, below).

The park is believed to shelter11 per cent of the world’s birds.

Yet, says guide Mario Umiña,who works with one of the

jungle eco-lodges owned byindigenous communities, “we

still have virgin rainforests sofull of life that nobody really

knows what’s in there”.

TouriSm

The parkshelters 200

species ofmammal

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Atmore than10,000 sq km,these are thelargest salt flatsin theworld

UyunisaltflatsApair ofAirstreamcaravansgleamas their occupantssettle down for thenight onthe Salar deUyuni (above), at10,580 sq km the largest saltflats in theworld.

The skyscapes in this areaof the southernhemisphereare among themost pristineanywhere in theworld.Tourist numbers are leaping,too, in this part of Bolivia: in2014, 50,000arrived fromAsia alone, up from 1,900 in2011.More than 30,000ofthemwere Japanese.

In January this year, theSalar deUyuni formedpart ofstage eight of theDakarRally(left), a two-week race throughArgentina, Chile andBolivia.n

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EvoMorales facesa challenge everybit as great asthe loomingeffects of any gasor commodityprice crash. This

one, though, will be one of hisownmaking: having successfullyco-opted the business class andat least some on the right, he is inperil of undoing his achievementsby running for office again.

That Bolivia canmeet acoming economic crisis on arelatively sound footing is mainlythanks to the pragmatism ofMorales. He is a skilful politicianwho uses a traditional leftistrhetoric to attack capitalism andimperialism, even as he authorisesoil exploration in the country’sprotected areas, unafraid to clashwith an environmental NGO thatsupported himwhen he was the

leader of the of the opposition inCongress, a decade ago.

More than socialism, whatMorales and the rulingMovementTowards Socialism (MAS) partydefend is their model of “Andean”capitalism.Market forces areallowed to operate freely, whilethe government uses a welfarepolicy of cash-transfers and fuel

gender issues— he sees womenas subordinate tomen— andopposes gaymarriage; he backsthe indigenousmovements inthe country’s western highlandsbut treats those in the westernlowlands as second-class citizens.

Institutions such as thejudiciary and the police have notbeen cleansed of corruption. Itis still hard to view the judiciaryas a fully independent entity andMorales himself recognises thathis attempt at reform by lettingthe people elect magistrates hasfailed.

Seeking a fourth term aspresident will damageMorales’legacy: he should continuedeepening the structural changesof the country, where the lawis not something that can bechanged according to personalwhim.Moreover, he shouldbeware assuming that theBolivian people are willing to re-elect him ad infinitum.

Morales might havemadethe country more inclusiveand achieved an economy thatcan ride out the effects of aglobal crisis, but changing theconstitution is to tell the worldthat the new Bolivia is the same asthe old Bolivia.

The political instability thathas plagued the country sinceits inception is due in part topresidents who have adapted theconstitution to their wishes. Toovercome Bolivia’s traditionaldependence on one person,Morales has to show thatconstitutional stability is moreimportant than any individual.■

Edmundo Paz Soldán is aBolivian writer who teachesat Cornell University and theauthor ofNorte

subsidies to underpin growth indomestic demand, thus softeningthemodel’s harder side.

Vice-president Alvaro GarcíaLinera told the Bolivian daily ElDeber in November 2014 that“theMAS is no longer that of2005”, the year it rose to power.Rather, he said, the party’spolicies have evolved: it is not ascommunitarian as in its originsand, indeed, “theMAS hasembraced the capitalist ‘SantaCruzmodel’.”

This is confirmation that theMAS is a hegemonic party thathas appropriated the discourse of

the weak right-wingopposition.

When theMASwas founded 17years ago, who onthe right couldhave predicted thatthose same businesspeople could be

allies of the party? Or, indeed, thatthey would prosper under it?

Even after nine years in power,Morales is showing no signs ofwear and tear. The presidentis a revolutionary leader whohas given Bolivians a large doseof self-esteem, by empoweringindigenous identities andreclaiming sovereignty throughstate presence in key areas such asthe oil industry. He has reducedpoverty and expanded themiddleclass, thus fuelling the domesticmarket. He has enabled socialmovements, previously ill-servedby traditional parties, to enter thepolitical arena. His reigniting ofthe demand for sovereign accessto the sea was amasterstroke thathas united the country.

But his idea of an inclusiveand equitable society is riddledwith contradictions. He bypasses

An influence too farTo seek a fourth termasBolivia’s leader, EvoMorales is

in peril of undoinghis legacy, saysEdmundo Paz Soldán

After nineyears in power,Morales showsno signs of

wear and tear

‘No’ voters inthedebateonwhetherEvoMoralesshould run forre-election in2019

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IANACOLANZI