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Accelerating success. SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT MID-YEAR 2012
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Page 1: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

Accelerating success.

SERBIA

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT

MID-YEAR 2012

Page 2: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

2012 | RESEARCH & FORECAST MID-YEAR REVIEW | SERBIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 3

Economic Overview 4

Office Market 5

Retail Market 7

Residential Market 9

Key Metric Definitions 11

Page 3: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

3 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

RECENT TRENDS

• Economic: In April 2012, the unemployment rate reached 25.5%, a 3.3% y-o-y

increase. The Dinar (RSD) started to recover In June 2012 due to a regulation

change of the bank reserve fund.

• Office: Demand for office space in Belgrade slowed in H1 2012 evidenced by the

number of inquires recorded by Colliers International. Compared to H2 2011,

Belgrade net office rents remained unchanged in H1 2012.

• Retail: Belgrade’s retail market was uneventful, however the retail market in

secondary cities showed signs of movement as a few retail projects were delivered

in H1 2012. With limited supply of international shopping centres in Belgrade, rents

continued to be landlord driven, starting at high initial values.

• Residential: The Belgrade residential market delivered 6,416 residential

apartments, marking an increase of 13% on an annual basis compared to 2010.

NMIC official data indicated the total number of apartments purchased by loans in

H1 2012 decreased 36% in comparison to H1 2011.

MARKET PROGNOSIS

• Economic: Serbia’s National Bank projected moderate GDP growth of 0.5% on an

annual basis, by the end of 2012. Some forecasts indicate that the Dinar should

remain stable against the Euro, standing at the mid-year rate of 116.

• Office: Colliers forecast is that Belgrade office rents will stabilize in H2 2012 with

the possibility of a modest increase.

• Retail: Rent levels should remain stable over the next six months in both prime high

street areas as well as in western-style shopping centres.

• Residential: Sales and rent levels should remain stable over the next six months,

with the possibility of a modest decrease in H2 2012.

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary

“Stabilisation trends

and limited real estate

investments

continued in H1 2012

in all market

segments.”

MARKET PROGNOSIS

Page 4: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

4 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

SUMMARY

• Following a downward trend since May 2011, the inflation rate dropped from 14.7%

to 2.3% in April 2012, the lowest rate in the past twelve months. In June 2012, y-o-y

inflation reached 5.5%, a figure within the National Bank’s target of 4.2% (+/- 1.5%).

The inflation rate in Q2 2012 trended upward due to growth in food, fruit and oil

prices.

• After a strong currency depreciation trend in May 2012, the Dinar (RSD) showed

signs of a modest recovery due to regulation changes in the mandatory reserve

levels of banks as well as a modest stabilization in the Euro-zone.

• As of H1 2012, the unemployment rate reached 25.5%, a 3.3% y-o-y increase.

• After achieving 1.6% economic growth in 2011, GDP trended down by -1.3% due to

a sharp decline in industrial production and the economic slowdown of the

Eurozone. Total industrial activity decreased by 4.2% in H1 2012 in comparison to

the same period in 2011.

• At the end of H1 2012, however, external trade in Serbia increased by 3.8%

compared to H1 2011. Major Serbian foreign trade partners in export include

Germany, Italy, Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Russian Federation.

• The average net salary (excluding tax and contributions) in Serbia was

approximately €366 as of June 2012. According to official data from the Statistical

Office, in H1 2012 the average net salary in Serbia increased 5.8% in real terms and

10.5% in nominal terms.

PROGNOSIS

• The National Bank of Serbia projects inflation will accelerate on an annual basis as

of May 2012 due to the beginning of the new agricultural season which will increase

both regulated and imported food prices. The primary disinflationary factor will be

low aggregate demand. Food and regulatory prices, as well as international

conditions will remain the dominant risk factors affecting inflation projections.

• Some forecasts indicate that the Dinar should remain stable against the Euro,

standing at the mid-year rate of 116.

• By the end of 2012, Serbia’s National Bank projects a moderate 0.5% GDP growth

on an annual basis.

• Total net FDI inflows to Serbia in H2 2012 will amount to €1 billion, or 3.1% of GDP.

Economic Overview

Key Economic Figures

2010 2011 2012

GDP % 1.0 1.6 0.5

CPI % 10.3 7.0 4.0

(+/-1.5)

Unemployment % 19.2 23.7 25.5

Population 7,120,666

Top 3 Cities

Belgrade 1,639,121 23.0%

Novi Sad 335,701 4.7%

Nis 257,818 3.6%

Source: Colliers International

Economic Make-up

Sector GDP Labor

Agriculture % 7.9 2.5

Industry % 36.2 33.0

Services % 42.6 54.5

GDP, INFLATION & UNEMPLOYMENT

Source: National Bank of Serbia, Raiffeisen Bank,

Colliers International

Page 5: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

5 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

SUPPLY

• Due to the continuing economic crisis in Serbia, there was no new Grade A or

Grade B office supply delivered to the Belgrade market in H1 2012.

• In H1 2012, the total modern office inventory (Grade A and B) amounted to 620,000

m2. Grade A office space represented 51% of the market (315,000 m2) while Grade

B office space represented 49% (305,000 m2).

• The Central Business District (CBD) represents approximately 79% of Belgrade’s

total Grade A and B office stock, while the Broad Centre represents 17% and

Belgrade’s suburban areas round out the remaining 4% of total modern office

supply.

DEMAND

• Office space demand in Belgrade was down in H1 2012, reflected by the reduced

number of inquires recorded by Colliers International.

• Demand was driven by the IT sector. Business services, as well as, trade, retail and

wholesale companies, and the FIRE (Financial, Insurance and Real estate) sector

also showed activity.

• Geographically, New Belgrade and the downtown area were the most sought after

locations for doing business in Belgrade in H1 2012.

• Demand for office space by size in H1 2012 demonstrated office space between

100-200 m2 accounted 41% of total market share, followed by offices with space of

<100 m2, 200-300 m2 and 300-400 m2 representing 12% of the market respectively.

The remaining portion of requests was related to office premises between 500-1,000

m2 (10%), 400-500 m2 (9%) and 1,000-2,000 m2 (4%).

• There was increased demand for small office units (up to 150 m2) by foreign

companies who were starting businesses in H1 2012.

• Demand was also recorded by companies with expiring leases in converted office

space, searching for office space between 200-350 m2 within office buildings.

VACANCY/AVAILABILITY

• Belgrade’s office vacancy rate continued to trend downward. At the end of H1 2012,

the overall vacancy rate for Grade A and B space reached 15.8%. Looking closer,

the Grade A vacancy rate was 15.3% and the Grade B vacancy rate 17%.

• Total vacant Grade A and B office space at the end of H1 2012 was close to 70,000

m2. 48,300 m2 was Grade A vacant space and 21,700 m2 was Grade B vacant

space.

• According to Colliers research, the increase in vacancy was recorded primarily in

Grade B office buildings in the downtown area.

Source: Colliers International

Source: Colliers International

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | OFFICE MARKET

Key Office Figures - Belgrade

Total Stock 620,000 m²

Take-up 5,320 m²

Vacancy 15.8%

Prime Headline Rent €16.5 m²/month

Office Market

Colliers International Serbia revised its

office data base in H1 2012 and changes

in office supply data classification for

Grade A and B office buildings may be

reflected in the report.

Page 6: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

Source: Colliers International

RENTS

• Compared to H2 2011 rents, Belgrade prime net office rents remained unchanged in

H1 2012.

• The highest net rental rates were recorded in the CBD area totaling €16.5 m2/month.

• Belgrade’s CBD area recorded net asking rents between €14.5-16.5 m2/month for

Grade A office developments and €12-14 m2/month for Grade B office

developments depending on the micro-location.

• Belgrade’s Broad Centre does not contain Grade A office developments so net

asking rents for Grade B office space ranged from €9-11 m2/month.

• In H1 2012, Colliers recorded effective office rents (including incentives) in the CBD

from €13-14.5 m2/month for Grade A and €10-12 m2/month for Grade B office

buildings.

PIPELINE

• Two Grade A office buildings for owner occupancy in New Belgrade’s CBD area:

Raiffeisen Bank (21,000 m2) is anticipated in H2 2012 and Banca Intesa (30,000 m2)

should come to market in H2 2013.

• Presently, two small scale office projects are under active construction in the

Belgrade market. Danube Business (5,500 m2) by BOP Immo, is set for delivery in

H2 2012. New office space which is part of the Old Mill project (3,000 m2 ) by Prigan

Holding, is scheduled to be delivered in the Belgrade market by the end of 2013.

PROGNOSIS

• Net rental levels of Grade A and B office developments in H2 2012 will remain

stable with the possibility of a modest increase.

• The most exclusive Grade A office buildings positioned in the New Belgrade area

are expected to be leased out by the end of 2012.

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | OFFICE MARKET

Office Market

TENANT

SIZE

(m2) PROJECT LOCATION

PROFESSIONAL

PRINTING

SOLUTIONS 187

GALEB

BUILDING

VOZDOVAC

AREA

GORENJE GTI 230 RED STRIPE

NEW

BELGRADE

PROCESCOM 206

GRAWE

BUILDING

NEW

BELGRADE

M&W GROUP 250 RED STRIPE

NEW

BELGRADE

KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS IN H1 2012

Page 7: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

7 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

OVERVIEW

• H1 2012 was not a period of dynamic retail development in Belgrade. However,

several secondary cities in Serbia witnessed the delivery of a few new retail

developments.

• According to official data from the Statistics Office of the Republic of Serbia, retail

trade turnover increased 5.1% in current prices and decreased 0.9% in constant

prices in H1 2012, in comparison to the same period in 2011.

SUPPLY

• In light of challenging economic conditions in Belgrade, H1 2012 marked a period of

stagnation in terms of new shopping centre developments. There were no changes

in shopping centre stock, so the total gross leasable area remained at the same

level of 168,000 m2 .

• The retail market in secondary cities showed signs of movement as few retail

projects were delivered in H1 2012.

• At the end of Q1 2012, the Kragujevac retail market delivered its first project out of

four Plaza Centre projects in Serbia. The Kragujevac Plaza with an area of 22,000

m2 was the first western-style shopping centre outside of Belgrade. This project

diversified the retail offer and brought international brands to Kragujevac.

• At the beginning of Q2 2012, the Indjija retail market opened the first phase of the

Fashion House Outlet with a gross leasable area of 15,000 m2. This is an

investment by Black Oak Developments. An additional 15,000 m2 was announced to

be delivered through two more phases by the end of 2016.

• In the course of further development of the Roda Cash and Carry network, Valjevo

saw the official opening of the Roda Cash and Carry hypermarket (3,400 m2 GBA) in

June 2012.

DEMAND

• Even though Belgrade only has two western-type shopping malls, retailers

continued to show interest in entering and expanding in the capital’s retail market. In

H1 2012, C&A entered the market in the Usce shopping mall.

• After the success of the retail project in Pancevo, retailers started to explore

secondary cities for future expansion.

• Belgrade’s prime high streets remained one of the most favorable locations for

retailers. At the end of Q1 2012, Knez Mihailova, the main pedestrian street,

introduced the fashion brand, New Look, to the Serbian market.

RENTS AND VACANCY

• In H1 2012, Belgrade’s prime high street rents were stable. In H1 2012, primary high

streets rents ranged from €40-120 m2/month, with the highest rents recorded in

locations such as Kneza Mihaila Street in Belgrade. Secondary retail areas

registered rental levels between €15-40 m2/month whereas peripheral retail areas

ranged between €5-10 m2/month.

• With limited international style shopping centre supply in Belgrade, rents continued

to be landlord driven in H1 2012 and started at high initial values. Delta City and

Usce’s rents stayed the same as 2011, ranging from €25-70 m2/month.

• High demand for retail space coupled with a shortage of quality retail space in the

Belgrade market resulted in lower vacancy rates in H1 2012. Vacancy levels in the

Belgrade prime high streets hovered between 5-7%, while western style shopping

centers recorded vacancy levels closer to zero percent.

Source: Colliers International

RENTAL RATES WITHIN MODERN SC,

PRIME & SECONDARY HIGH STREET

Source: Colliers International

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | RETAIL MARKET

Retail Market

Key Retail Figures - Serbia

Total Shopping Centre

Stock 168,000 m²

Prime Headline

SC Rent €70m²/month

Prime Headline

High Street Rent €120m²/month

87%

5% 8%

New Belgrade area Downtown area

Other

€/m2

Retail Stock by Location

Page 8: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

8 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

PIPELINE

• After a decade of successful operation, the Mercator shopping centre closed in May

2012 for refurbishment and expansion of its ground floor that will add an additional

1,000 m2 of gross leasable area. Mercator will reopen as of September 1st, 2012.

• The Rajiceva Shopping Centre (15,500 m2 GLA), the first modern-concept shopping

centre in the central part of the downtown area in the main pedestrian zone, is

scheduled for completion in H1 2015. Israeli company ABD, invested in the Rajiceva

Shopping Centre. It will be part of a mixed-use project.

• The construction of the Delta Planet shopping centre (70,000 m2 GLA) in the

Autokomanda area is planned to start construction by the end of 2012.

• The shopping centre developer, Plaza Centres is planning to develop a 40,000 m2

GLA shopping mall in Visnjica, called Plaza Visnjica, which is set for delivery in Q1

2014. Belgrade Plaza shopping centre (22,000 m2 GLA), which is part of a mixed-

use project in Kneza Milosa Street, has still not announced its construction start

date.

• During Q4 2012, the first modern shopping centre in Belgrade’s Vozdovac area,

called Stadion shopping (30,000 m2 GLA) will open in Q4 2012. This shopping

centre will be part of a mixed-use project which will include a retail section and a

football stadium.

• GTC Serbia is planning to develop Ada Mall, a shopping centre in the vicinity of Ada

Ciganlija Lake. The delivery is planned for 2014/2015.

• In the outskirts of Belgrade, Pancevo will see the addition of the sixth phase of their

Retail park by the end of H1 2013, an investment by international investment fund,

Aviv Arlon Group.

• Mercator will continue to expand its network in Serbia by opening a 9,500 m2 GLA

Roda Centre in Krusevac in August 2012.

PROGNOSIS

• By the end of 2012, demand is expected to stay elevated for retail space in the two

existing western-style shopping centers and on prime high streets.

• Retail rents in both prime high streets and western-style shopping centers should

remain stable in H2 2012.

Source: Colliers International

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | RETAIL MARKET

Retail Market

Project

Type of

project GLA (m2) Developer

Scheduled

opening

date

Belgrade

Plaza

Shopping

centre 22.000

Plaza

Centres n/a

GTC Ada Mall

Shopping

centre 31.000 GTC Serbia 2014/2015

Delta Planet

Shopping

centre 70.000

Delta Real

Estate Q4 2015

Rajiceva

Shopping Mall

Shopping

centre 18.500 ABD Q12015

Plaza Visnjica

Shopping

centre 40.000

Plaza

Centres Q1 2014

Stadion centre

Shopping

centre 30.000

Private

investor Q4 2012

MAJOR PIPELINE PROJECTS

Page 9: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

9 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

SUPPLY

• In 2011, Belgrade’s residential market recorded the delivery of 6,416 residential

apartments, a 13% increase on an annual basis in comparison to 2010.

• Belgrade’s municipalities that recorded the largest levels of new residential supply

were Zvezdara (2,190 apartments), Vozdovac (1,001), Palilula (508), Cukarica (482)

and New Belgrade (393). The lowest new supply was delivered in the Old City in the

downtown area (28 apartments) and Savski Venac (81 apartments).

• Lower residential supply was also recorded in Belgrade’s suburban municipalities:

Barajevo (12 apartments), Lazarevac (67), Grocka (87) and Sopot (96).

• At the end of 2011, there were 11,562 unfinished residential apartments out of

which, the largest percentage was located in Vozdovac (38%), New Belgrade (16%),

Zvezdara (15%) and Vracar (8.5%).

• In May 2012, started handing over of 500 ‘affordable’ apartments, currently the

largest residential project in Belgrade, constructed by Serbian company, Building

Directorate.

DEMAND

• In H1 2012, the number of housing loans insured by the National Mortgage

Insurance Corporation (NMIC) amounted to 2,229 loans marking a 28% decrease in

comparison to the same period in 2011.

• Even-though the total number of insured housing loans decreased, subsidized

housing loans increased 11% in H1 2012, compared to the same period in 2011.

• NMIC official data showed that the total number of loan backed purchased

apartments decreased 36% in comparison to H2 2011. The largest number of

purchased apartments using a loan were in the following locations: Vozdovac (385),

New Belgrade (179), Zvezdara (158) and Palilula (99).

• At the beginning of 2012, the Serbian Government adopted regulations with the aim

of stimulating demand for residential apartments and supporting the construction

industry through long-term housing loans.

• Restrictions related to the upper limit of subsidized loans of €100,000 affected the

demand for residential apartments. As a result, demand was considerably focused

on one or two bedroom apartments up to 50 m2.

• In H1 2012, typical buyers of residential apartments were married couples between

the age of 30-45. Furthermore, 60% of buyers used a housing loan as a means to

finance the purchase of apartment units.

PROGNOSIS

• Sales and rental levels will remain stable over the next six months, with the

possibility of a modest decrease in H2 2012.

• Official data published by the Statistics Office showed 4,884 residential apartments

will be built in Serbia, according to the issued building permits for the period Jan-

May 2012. This marked a 40% increase in comparison to the same period in 2011.

56% of new residential apartments will be one and two bedroom units.

Source: NMIC, Colliers International

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Residential Market

NUMBER OF BANK CREDITED

APARTMENTS WITHIN BELGRADE

MUNICIPALITIES IN H12012

Page 10: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

10 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

SALES PRICES

• In H1 2012, the advertised sales price for new mid to high priced residential

apartments in Belgrade decreased by 5-10% in comparison to H2 2011.

• Presently, sales prices of mid to high residential apartments in Belgrade range from

€1,250-1,850 m2, with higher upper range projects reaching €3,800 m2.

• In H1 2012, the highest sales price for high quality projects in the exclusive parts of

Dedinje and Senjak ranged from €2,500-3,500 m2, in Vracar €2,600-3,800 m2 and in

New Belgrade €3,000 m2.

• Mid to high quality residential projects in New Belgrade recorded gross sales prices

from €1,600-1,850 m2 and in the Banovo Brdo area from €1,550-1,800 m2. Both

areas marked a modest decrease of 5% in comparison to H2 2011.

• The Vracar area is an exclusive area in terms of location, quality and concept of

residential projects. New apartments were priced according to the following

hierarchy: €2,600-3,800 m2, €2,200-2,600 m2, €1,800-2,200/m2 and €1,600-1,800

m2 for the least exclusive locations. Over the past six months, Vracar saw a 5%

decrease of sale prices compared to H2 2011.

• In the central part of the down-town area, the Old City recorded gross sale prices for

mid to high quality apartments ranging from €2,200-2,400 m2, with no notable

decrease. The Vozdovac area remained stable with gross sale prices circulating

between €1,250-1,650 m2.

RENTS

• In H1 2012, rental levels for quality residential units in Belgrade remained at the

same values as in H2 2011. The highest level of €12 m2/month was marked in the

expatriate areas of Dedinje and Senjak. In H1 2012, a notable increase in vacancy

occurred in the Dedinje area as several foreign companies left Serbia. The highest

demand was from foreigners in the Senjak area. The greatest percentage of

international schools are located in this area.

• Rental ranges were recorded as follows: Vozdovac- €5-10 m2/month; Vracar- €7-

12m2/month; Dedinje- €6-12 m2/month; Senjak - €8-12 m2/month; New Belgrade-

€6-10 m2/month; Banovo Brdo and Vozdovac an equal range €5-10 m2/month.

PIPELINE

• In H1 2012, the main construction activity was noticed in the municipalities of

Vozdovac, New Belgrade and Vracar.

• The largest residential project under-construction was the Stepa Stepanovic project

being financed by the government totaling 4,600 ‘affordable’ apartments. These are

set to be delivered on the market by the end of 2013 in several phases. The

government also financed Dr Ivan Ribar’s project, which is currently finishing its

construction phase. With the delivery of this project, New Belgrade will witness

delivery of 707 ‘affordable’ apartments.

• The Vracar area will see the delivery of two high quality residential projects by the

end of 2012: Living Good project in Novopazarska Street (3,000 m2 GBA) and the

Energogroup project on Smiljaniceva Street (2,880 m2 GBA).

• There are several mid to high residential projects across the capital including the

second phase of the Golf 8 project in Banovo Brdo area with a delivery date in Q1

2013, the Harmony apartments in the Vracar area with a delivery date in Q4 2013

and the Neimar V project and West 65 project in the New Belgrade area, both

scheduled to be finished by the end of 2012.

Source: Colliers International

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA | RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Residential Market

GROSS SALES PRICES WITHIN

BELGRADE MUNICIPALITIES (€/m²)

RENTAL LEVELS WITHIN BELGRADE

MUNICIPALITIES (€/m²)

Source: Colliers International

Page 11: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

The information contained herein has been obtained from

sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort

has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot

guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any

inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their

professional advisors prior to acting on any of the

material contained in this report.

COLLIERS RESEARCH

Colliers Research Services Group is recognized as a knowledge leader in the commercial

real estate industry, providing clients with valuable market intelligence to support business

decisions. Colliers research analysts provide multi-level support across all property types,

ranging from data collection to comprehensive market analysis.

Across the Eastern European region of EMEA, Colliers researchers regularly collect and

update data on key real estate metrics, set to consistent definitions bringing greater

transparency and reliability to our real estate market analysis in the region. In most Eastern

European markets, the office definitions used are consistent with those set out by the CEE

Research Forum – an umbrella group, of which Colliers is a founding member. Definitions of

the key metrics used in our regular reports are highlighted below.

KEY METRIC DEFINITIONS

• Prime Net Initial Yield: The yield an investor is prepared to pay to buy a Grade A building,

fully-let to high quality tenants at an open market rental value in a prime location. Lease

terms should be commensurate with the market. As a calculation Net initial yield = First

years’ net income/purchase price (prior to deducting fees and taxes)

• Prime Headline Rent: Represents the top open-market tier of rent that could be expected

for a unit of standard size commensurate with demand, of the highest quality and

specification in the best location in the market at the survey date. This should reflect the

level at which relevant transactions are being completed at the time but need not be exactly

identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or made up of unusual one-

off deals. If there are no relevant transactions during the survey period, the quoted figure

will be more hypothetical, based on expert opinion of market conditions. The figure

excludes service charges, taxes, and tenant incentives.

• Total Occupational Market Activity (Take-up): Total Occupational Market Activity is the

total floor space known to have been let or sold as one of the following activity types during

the survey period: Pre-let, New Occupation/Lease, Renewal/Renegotiation, Expansion,

Sub-lease and Sale & Leaseback.

• Net Take-up: Net Take-up represents the sum of all Total Occupational Market Activity

categories which represent a net increase in demand for space. This would only include the

following activity types: Pre-lets, New Occupation/lease, Expansion

• Total Competitive Stock - Offices: Includes the gross leasable floor space in all A and B

class buildings, including owner-occupied buildings but excluding government owned

properties. Ancillary office space is only included if it can be reasonably used independently

of the primary use of the building in which it is located.

• Total Competitive Stock - Industrial: Includes the gross leasable floor space in all A and

B class buildings, including speculative, Build to suit and owner-occupied stock. Other

reference points include that the building must be heated and have a clear usable height

minimum of 6metres. This includes both warehouse (500m2+)& bulk space (10,000m2+).

• Total Competitive Stock – Retail Shopping Centres: Split into two categories ‘Traditional

& Specialised’ as per ICSC definitions. Traditional includes retail properties that are

planned, built and managed as a single entity, comprising units and “communal” areas with

a minimum gross leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 square metres. Specialised shopping

centres includes Retail Parks, Factory Outlet Centres and Theme-Oriented Centres -

specific, purpose-built retail schemes that are typically open-air with a minimum gross

leasable area (GLA) of 5,000 m2.

• Space Under Active Construction: Represents the total amount of gross leasable floor

space of properties where construction has commenced on a new development or where a

major refurbishment/renovation is ongoing at the survey date.

• Vacant Space: The total gross leasable floor space in existing properties that meet the

Competitive Stock definition, which is physically vacant and being actively marketed at the

survey date. Space should be available for immediate occupation.

• Total Availability: Total Availability is a calculation derived from the combination of total

vacant space + total available speculative developments, (which exclude the total volume

of pre-let or sold space under construction) during the survey period.

522 offices in

62 countries on

6 continents EMEA: 118

United States: 147

Canada: 37

Latin America: 19

Asia: 36

Aus/New Zealand: 165

€49 billion of transactional value

76,000 annual transactions

€1.3 billion in annual revenue

116 million square metres under

management

Over 12,300 professionals

SERBIA

Colliers International

Grawe Building

Blvd Mihajla Pupina 115d

11070 Belgrade

Serbia

TEL +381 11 313 99 55

FAX +381 11 313 99 58

EMAIL [email protected]

RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | MID-YEAR 2012 | SERBIA

www.colliers.com/Markets/Belgrade

Page 12: SERBIA RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORTbeobuild.rs/visuals/data/media/16/Serbia_Mid-Year_2012.pdf · 6 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL Source: Colliers International RENTS • Compared to H2 2011

Accelerating success. www.colliers.com


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