| Date post: | 16-Apr-2017 |
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biosecurity built on science
A risk-return prioritisation tool for global trade inspections
Paul Mwebaze, Dean Paini, Daniel Heersink, Petra Kuhnert – CSIRO
Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre
biosecurity built on science
biosecurity built on science
Keller et al 2011 Div & Dist
(3522)
All ports = 5 steps
biosecurity built on science
Asian Gypsy Moth
Can complete development on Eucalyptus species
biosecurity built on science
June - Sept
biosecurity built on science
AGM eggs go through diapause
Gray et al 2001 – J Insect Phys
biosecurity built on science
Brisbane
Hobart
biosecurity built on science
Eggs arriving directly = not viable
biosecurity built on science
Asian Gypsy Moth Real time tool Gray’s egg diapause model If carrying AGM eggs, would they have
completed diapause? Is there a particular time of the year?
biosecurity built on science
No hatch
biosecurity built on science
Hatch
biosecurity built on science
No hatch
biosecurity built on science
Hatch
biosecurity built on science
2010, 15 ships arrived that needed to be inspected (6 to ports climatically suitable)
2013 = 643 AGM inspections Feb – July (currently Jan – May)
biosecurity built on science
biosecurity built on science
Inspections – higher risk and expensive (training)
biosecurity built on science
Modelling inspections
Cost
MinimumTotalCost
Low levelof inspections
High levelof inspections
Optimal level of inspection
Cost of waiting time
( time x value of time )
Cost of conductinginspections
( salaries + benefits )
Total Cost
Batabyal et al 2006. Eur J. Oper. Res
biosecurity built on science
Modelling inspections
>> runSimulationsSimulating ... # of Concurrent Inspectors = 1Total Wait Cost = $ 8993.2K Total Inspection Cost = $ 899.1K Simulating ... # of Concurrent Inspectors = 2Total Wait Cost = $ 6254.9K Total Inspection Cost = $ 899.1K Simulating ... # of Concurrent Inspectors = 3Total Wait Cost = $ 6064.8K Total Inspection Cost = $ 899.1K Simulating ... # of Concurrent Inspectors = 4Total Wait Cost = $ 6016.4K Total Inspection Cost = $ 899.1K Simulating ... # of Concurrent Inspectors = 5Total Wait Cost = $ 6009.5K Total Inspection Cost = $ 899.1K
biosecurity built on science
Modelling inspections
biosecurity built on science
Potential benefits
Reduced number of vessels requiring inspections for AGM risk [quantified]
Reduced costs for Dept. of Agriculture [quantified]
Minimise disruption to vessel itineraries—reduce ‘delay’ costs for the shipping industry [quantified]
Reduced AGM risk to the forest product industry [not quantified]
biosecurity built on science
AGM Statistics
2013 2014 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
313
216
825
287
121 134
Total number of vessels targeted for risk assessment Total number of vessels inspected for AGM
Source: DAWR
biosecurity built on science
AGM Statistics
2013 2014 20150
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Number of vessels with AGM detected by master Total number of vessels with AGM egg masses (detections)Total number of comfirmed AGM cases (OSP)
Source: DAWR
biosecurity built on science
Acknowledgements
John Nielsen (DAWR – AGM policy) Sanjay Boothalingam (DAWR – MARS) Dave Ryan (DAWR) Dominic Musolino (DAWR) For more information, please email
