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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 1

SessionSession 44

NGN and Broadband Planning NGN and Broadband Planning ToolsTools

Ignat StanevIgnat StanevHCTP/ITC, BulgariaHCTP/ITC, Bulgaria

ITUITU --D Regional Development Forums 2010 on D Regional Development Forums 2010 on

NGN and Broadband for the Arab RegionNGN and Broadband for the Arab Region

““ NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and ChallengesNGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges””

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 2

Content of presentationContent of presentation

�� Broadband and NGNBroadband and NGN

�� Top level planning domains for broadband Top level planning domains for broadband

accessaccess

�� Modeling of broadband access networksModeling of broadband access networks

�� Broadband planning tools of ITU partnersBroadband planning tools of ITU partners

�� ITU validation process for planning toolsITU validation process for planning tools

�� Benefit of using plannig toolsBenefit of using plannig tools

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 3

Broadband asDefinition for Next Definition for Next Generation NetworksGeneration Networks

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 4

Broadband definitions of ITU Broadband definitions of ITU Recommendation I.113of the ITU Standardization Sector defines broadband as :

Transmission capacity that is faster than primary rate Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) at 1.5 or 2.0Megabits per second (Mbits)

Related to transmission speed

DEFINITIONS OF WORLD TELECOMMUNICATION/ICT INDICATORS –March 2010

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 5

Offered broadband connections by speedOffered broadband connections by speed

Offered broadband connection –

by price and speed

Source : OECD, TeleGeography, Point Topic

By speed of

connection:

� Low speed

(256kbps – 2Mbps)

� Mediumspeed

(2.5Mpbs-10Mbps)

� High speed

(10Mpbs-32Mbps)

� Very-high speed

(above35Mbps)

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 6

BroadbandBroadband customers (ICT market trends)customers (ICT market trends)

Source :

ITU Database 2010

Internet users

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 7

BroadbandBroadband customerscustomers

Growth of broadband customers by region

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 8

BroadbandBroadband customers customers –– download speeddownload speed

Source :

OECD 2009

Source :

Akamai, Q4 2008

Average actual download speed

Average actual speed

Average advertised speed

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 9

BroadbandBroadband access technologies access technologies -- wirelinewireline

xDSLxDSL

Power line

105.02.01.00.50.2

0.20.51.02.05.0102050100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

VDSL

widl/xdsl1m

Mbit/s

(from subscriber to central office)

Mbit/s

Downstream

ADSLHDSL

SHDSLkm

Looprange

symm.

asymm. (from central office to subscriber)

Upstream

FTTxFTTx

HFCHFC

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 10

BroadbandBroadband access technologies access technologies -- wirelesswireless

Terrestrial Terrestrial WirelessWireless

SATSAT

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 11

Top Level Broadband Planning DomainsTop Level Broadband Planning Domains

� NGN requirements to the planning tools are organised by eight planning domains derived from planner needs and networking problems

Business PlanningBusiness Planning

Fixed Access Planning

Fixed Access Planning Signaling and

control planning

Signaling and control planning

Fixed Switching and

routing planning

Fixed Switching and

routing planning

Transmission planning

Transmission planning

IT, OSS and Applications planning

IT, OSS and Applications planning

Access radio planning

Access radio planning

Core radio planning

Core radio planning

Guidelines for Network Planning Tools for Developing Countries and Countries with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005

� Broadband planning

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 12

Fixed Access Planning Fixed Access Planning

GNPT for Developing Countries and Countries with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005

Market Demand Forecasting

Access Location/Design

Configuration and Assignment

Dimensioning and Performance

Protection and Reliability

Optimisation and Sensitivity

Inputs

From other

Planning Tools

From Network

From Technology

From Data Bases

From Planners

Outputs

To other

Planning Tools

To Network

and OSS

To Data Bases

To Planners

Requirements for the fixed access planning domain

Network and Equipment Costing

Modular Functionalities

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 13

Requirements related to NGN and Requirements related to NGN and corresponding new technologiescorresponding new technologies

� Modeling of future NGN access network equipment, including equipment parameters, technological constraints, costs structures

� Extending of the forecasting models and methods due to NGN service/customer requirements

� Adapting of the calculation modules to the NGN access network requirements

Modeling of new services and new NGN access technologies

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 14

Radio Access PlanningRadio Access Planning

User and Traffic Forecasting

Radio Access Location/Design

Coverage and Interference

Dimensioning and Performance

Protection and Reliability

Optimisation and Sensitivity

Inputs

From other

Planning Tools

From Network

From Technology

From Data Bases

From Planners

Outputs

To other

Planning Tools

To Network

and OSS

To Data Bases

To Planners

Requirements for the radio access domain

Network and Equipment Costing

Modular Functionalities

GNPT for Developing Countries and Countries with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 15

Requirements related to NGN and Requirements related to NGN and corresponding new technologiescorresponding new technologies

� Modeling of new NGN services which do not fall in the present service models and specially multimedia service types

� Modeling of future NGN access network equipment, including equipment parameters, technological constraints, costs structures

� Extending of the forecasting models and methods due to NGN service/customer requirements

� Adapting of the calculation modules to the NGN access network requirements

Coverage calculation methods related to the new NGN access technologies

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 16

BusinessBusinessPlanningPlanning

GNPT for Developing Countries and Countries with economies in transition, ITU, Geneva, 2005

Modular Functionalities

Market Demand Forecasting

Costs, Tariffs and Revenues

Capacity grow and Substitutions

Financial evaluations

Backward Cost Assignment

Inputs

From other Planning Tools

From Network

From Technology

From Data Bases

From Planners

Outputs

To other Planning Tools

To Network and OSS

To Data Bases

To Planners

Requirements for the business planning domain

Scenario’s Sensitivity

Business/Network/Scenario Design

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 17

Requirements related to NGN and Requirements related to NGN and corresponding new technologiescorresponding new technologies

� Modeling of service demands characterisation and traffics for VoIP and NGN multi-service flows

� Network and systems dimensioning with the multi-service NGN criteria

� Modeling of NGN systems with their corresponding capacities, capital costs, operational costs, lifetimes, etc.

� Representation of interrelations among NGN network subsystems, nodes and links

Pricing of new services and costing of new NGN access technologies

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 18

Modeling of broadband servicesModeling of broadband services

Customer classes - customers using same services – e.g. residential with triple playCombination

of Services, e.g. triple play

Service models :

� Permanent (contention ratio)

� Elastic

� Real -Time CBR

/ VBR

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB

BB BB

BB BB

BB

LBS

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 19

Modeling of broadband customersModeling of broadband customers

nodes / sites

= >

= >

zones /areasDigital maps – Geo referenced and scaled

Model of geographical location of customers divided in customer classes

Possibility for interaction with GIS systems

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 20

Forecasting of broadband customersForecasting of broadband customers

Historical data

Forecasting of :

• Customers and penetration,

• Service utilization,

• Service tariffs

Y

TT(0) T(0) + TWV

0

YV (0)

1

YWV Point of inflection

Trend methods -Logistic model

Number of Subscribers per Customer Class

0

50000

100000150000

200000

250000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Time

Num

ber

of S

ubsc

riber

s

BB_Bus

BB_Res

Evolution of BB customers Forecasted

data

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 21

Modeling of broadband access Modeling of broadband access technologiestechnologies

Wireless Wireless -- WiMAXWiMAX

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 22

Design and Optimization of Broadband Access Networks

Optimization of node Locations : Optimization of Service areas :

Combinatorial problem, not possible to check all possible solutions :

� Heuristic algorithms

� Genetic algorithms, Simulated annealing algorithms

E.g. optimal placement of BS E.g. optimal service areas of MSAN

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 23

Optical Budget impact:

FTTH – PON technology

Calculate Optical Budget:

� verify design and adjust accordingly

� integrate in the optimization methods

Design and Optimization of Broadband Access Networks (cont.)

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 24

Modelling of Radio access - coverage

Non-Terrain Based

• Use of "effective antenna height"• Monotonous decline of field strength with

increasing distance to transmitterExample: ITU-R P. 370

DTM Based

• Diffraction, shading, reflection• Terrain elevation and land use

(morphology)• 2D and 3D models

Examples: "Epstein-Peterson", "Longley&Rice", "Okumura-Hata"

Prediction Models :

Scattering Diffraction

FreespacePropagation

Reflection

Tropospheric EffectsAtmosph. AbsorptionLoss f>10 GHz

Rain Attenuationf>5GHz

Maximum Field Strength

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 25

Cost components of telecom network

Costing of Access NetworksCosting of Access Networks

no. of exchanges

Optimum

Total

Exchanges

Subscribers

Circuits

Costs

NODES

CORE

ACCESS

nodes

CAPEX� Acquisition� Installation

OPEX� Maintenance

Overall economic results–Revenues, Cost, Cash-flow and Net Present Value

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 26

85%

15%

52%

25%

9%

9%5%

Planning of bradband access networksPlanning of bradband access networks

CAPEX SensitiveOPEX Intensive

PLAN BUILD RUN

CapEx sensitive

OpEx intensive

Cri

tical

Critical

Purchase / Build

Operate &Maintain

Re-Optimization

Plan New Build

DemandForecast

Networkplanning

nodes

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 27

85% 25%

Planning of bradband access networks (cont.)Planning of bradband access networks (cont.)

Planning Data Integration Architecture

15%

52%

9%

9%5%

SysN

Sys3

Sys2

DB

OnePanDatabase

….

Market Forecast

Sys1

Networks File

Planning Tool X

PlanningTool Y

Dat

a E

xtra

ct,

Tra

nsfo

rm a

nd

Load

BB Access Planning Tool

Planning System

Planning Server

DB

Data Extraction,

Validation & Load

GIS

Network

Topology

Cost

Customers/Market Forecast

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 28

Broadband PlanningBroadband Planning ToolsTools of ITU partners :of ITU partners :Planning of Planning of wirelinewireline BB access networkBB access network

Target

Geography

VPIaccessMaker

Define and

Characterize the

Market Data

BB services Design DSL

Access Network

VPIaccessMaker VPIaccessMaker

Perform Techno

Economic

Analysis

Design

Parameters/

.Rules

DSL Network

components

Economic

factors

Customers

demand

Market

Evolution Data

DSL Network

Design

BB market Economic Analysis

of DSL Network

• Capturing sophisticated market forecasts

• Selecting the best access technology for a

geographic region

• Designing and dimensioning optimized

access networks

• Providing detailed economic analysis based

on forecasts and infrastructure investments

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 29

Broadband PlanningBroadband Planning ToolsTools of ITU partners :of ITU partners :Planning of Planning of wirelinewireline BB access networkBB access network

Target

Geography

VPIaccessMaker

Define and

Characterize the

Market Data

BB services Design DSL

Access Network

VPIaccessMaker VPIaccessMaker

Perform Techno

Economic

Analysis

Design

Parameters/

.Rules

DSL Network

components

Economic

factors

Customers

demand

Market

Evolution Data

DSL Network

Design

BB market Economic Analysis

of DSL Network

• Capturing sophisticated market forecasts • Determining the best locations for fiber splitters, MSANs or DSLAMS • Dimensioning duct and conduit capacities • Providing detailed economic analysis based

on forecasts and infrastructure investments

FTTx access network design for outside plant :

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 30

PlanningPlanning of wireless BB access networkof wireless BB access network

• Interactive microwave link engineering

• Design of radio access networks

• Planning wireless broadband networks

• Frequency allocation and coordination

Radio access coverage :

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ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 31

Purpose: Validation of Network Planning Tools for Developing Countries and Countries with economies in transition

ITU validation process for planning toolsITU validation process for planning tools

� Compliance with the technical requirements specified in the ITU Guidelines for Network Planning Tools

� Performance of the planning tool in terms of size of the network and time to execute typical planning cases

� Creating of Set of real data reference networks

ITU-D Forum Cairo, Egypt, 13 to 15 December 2010 Sess ion 4_IS - 32

Benefit of using plannig toolsBenefit of using plannig tools