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2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Samhällsscenarier
som beskriver drivkrafter
för framtidens fordon
Transportforum 2011-01-13
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Anders GrauersSwedish Hybrid Center
Else-Marie MalmekMalmeken AB/SAFER
Vehicle and Traffic Safety Centre
FFI project
Fordonsstrategisk Forskning och Innovation
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Sustainable road transportation solutions for goods
and people – by year 2030+
Efficiency, Safety, No/low emissions, Affordable
Phase 1 : July 2009 – June 2010
Phase 2 : 2011 - 2015
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Outlook
Rapid development –
On all system levels!
Research on concepts and
technologies needed!
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Road map
1a Technology
1a Society1. Stakeholder
2. Stakeholder category
3. Mobility needs
6. SustainableMobility solutions”Balancing Act”
7. Products and services
8. Resources
Belongs to
Have Fulfils
Consist of
Require/consume
Requirements/expectations on
9. Partnership
5.Technology aspects:
•Light weight •Energy Storage and Batteries
•Sensor technology•Driveline and energysource
•Vehicle architectures•Safety•Infrastructure and energy
Requirements/possibilities
4.Society aspects:•Political•Environmetal•Economic•Social
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Scenario Planning Process –Not predict the future - Learn about the driving forces!
Driving force
Driving force
Driving force
Today 2030+
Driving force
Many futures
Uncertaity
Strong
impact
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
14.CSharing dev. Cost
13.DTelecom-muting
5.DProd.devcycletime
13.BCity planning
11.CDiversification of infrastructsolutions
8.BNationalEnergysecurity
9.CUrbani-sation
19.CDemand fortransport
14.BSharingdev.risk
19.BAvailabilityof riskcapital19.DEk. develop.Växande/Krymp.
4.CMeetingCustomerdemands
5.CCompanies-Near timeprofit
6.BPopulationchange
12.DStrive forprofit
12.CQuickPoliticalresults
5.EInfrastruct.Ineartia
8.CPeakoil
18.BLimitateClimatechange
17.CNew carAsessmentprogram
10.BProfit – newBusinesssModels ortechn.
18.CLocal Airquality
4.DCreativityAmongemployes
18.DExtraction/Usage/recycling
7.BLimitatinIn rawmaterials
5.BOmställ-nings-tröghet
5.FMgmtMindsetAut.industry
9.E/15.BCriminalityGoods,People
17.BGenerateOf newneeds
18.EConsump-tionlevel
9.DAttitudesTowardConsumption
9.BValuese.g.ownership
13.CValuese.g.travelling
8.DTechn. Invent.Energysupply 4.E
LegislationDrive newtechnology
14.DNeed forNew infra-structure16.C
Political Decisions-incentives
12.BImproveSociety in theLong term
16.BCity planningHand in handDe. Of transport
11.BPoliticalWillingnessOr inertia
Hög
påverkan
Unceratin
Låg
påverkan
Säker
Societys
proactivty and
ability to change
Included in all
scenarios
Customers
lifestyle/
personal values
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Incremental Development
Society Perspective
• Economic growth, jobs and general welfare
dominate the political agenda
• Effects of global warming are handled locally
• The world is divided in the environment question
Technology perspective
• Cars are valued by looks, driving experience,
status, etc.
• The vehicle and transport industry is constrained
by its heritage
• Intelligent transport solutions are focused on
solving the congestion problem
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Eco Political
Society Perspective
• Traditional values omong people
• “Green and Safe” needs to be affordable
• New driving habits needed
Technology perspective
• Innovative IT solutions for mass transportation
• Co-modality in focus
• Traditional vehicles but Hybrid or Electric
• New light weight materials
• Standardisation
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Eco Individual
Society Perspective
• Inhabitants with a different set of values
• Willing to spend more on green/safe transports
• “Buycott” not boycott
• Green and safe are THE status symbols
Technology perspective
• New business models to support all kind of
new energy sources
• Diversified transportations and traveling
• Less is more
• The “0-100” generation” is gone
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Radicalism in Harmony
Society Perspective
• People are really living green and safe
• Competing for being “best”
• Individuals & Regions & Organisations
competes “in harmony”
Technology perspective
• Local solutions, global actions!
• Fast acceptance and intro of new better
technologies
• Innovation and § goes hand in hand
• Urban areas changes rapidly
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Road map
1a Technology
1a Society1. Stakeholder
2. Stakeholder category
3. Mobility needs
6. SustainableMobility solutions”Balancing Act”
7. Products and services
8. Resources
Belongs to
Have Fulfils
Consist of
Require/consume
Requirements/expectations on
9. Partnership
5.Technology aspects:
•Light weight •Energy Storage and Batteries
•Sensor technology•Driveline and energysource
•Vehicle architectures•Safety•Infrastructure and energy
Requirements/possibilities
4.Society aspects:•Political•Environmetal•Economic•Social
2010-06-04
© SEVS 2010
Sammanfattning
• Både teknik- och samhällsperspektiven är
nödvändiga för att hitta hållbara lösningar.
• Framtidens samhälle rymmer stora osäkerheter.
• Scenarier hjälper oss hantera osäkerheterna.
Därför behövs projekt där samhälls- och
teknikperspektivet möts för att utforska hållbara
transportlösningar.