setec

setec setec

First Sino-French ConferenceOn Sustainable Urban Transport Systems

November 11-14, 2008Shanghai, China

A Methodology to Develop a Multimodal

Travel Model in a Chinese City

Alain BLOCH / Setec International

setec Independent Engineering Group

www.setec.fr

design… 设计 master 控制

setecLe groupe SETEC

Table of Contents 目录

A Brief Presentation of the Setec Group Why a Model ? The Main Elements and Steps First Phase: Study Area and Zoning Second Phase: Data Bases Third Phase: the Modelling Chain

calibration of the present situation evolution and forecasts modal choice

Some Issues various uses of a traffic model examples

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A Methodology for Sustainable Mobility and Transport Planning Studies


A Brief Presentation of the Setec Group

founded in 1957, the setec group is now one of France’s largest engineering firms; it is completely independent Setec 集团创建于 1957 年，是法国重要的工程集团之一。 in 2008, setec has a staff of almost 1,500 in France and abroad, among them

1,000 engineers

在 2008 年，在法国及国外拥有 1500 多个合作伙伴。 subsidiaries and branches abroad:

Hungary, Iran, Japan, Luxemburg, Marocco, Russia, Tunisia 分别在匈牙利，伊朗，日本，卢森堡，摩洛哥，俄罗斯设立常驻机构。 annual sales in 2007 (only French subsidiaries): 143 M€

2007 年营业额为（仅法国分公司）： 1.43 亿欧元

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Presentation

Range of Services

Our references

Modelling Methodology


Consulting 评估

Design 设计

Supervision of Works

工程指挥

Assistance to the Owner

协助程承包人

transport economy & mobility 经济与交通

transport systems 运输系统

infrastructures 基础设施

buildings 建筑物

industry 工业

water and waste 水处理和垃圾处理

environement 环境保护

project management 项目管理

strategy, organisation 城市的战略，结构安排

urban and transport planning 规划，发展

telecommunications & Ict 远距离通讯及 Ntic

intelligent transport systems 远程交通运输

for

Ranges of Services 业务领域

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Major projects 大型项目Transport and infrastructures交通运输与基础设施Environement 环境Urban planning 规划Building 建筑Industry 工业Telecom 电讯

Economie des transports 交通经济Ligne à Grande Vitesse Rhin-Rhône 高速线路莱茵河至罗纳

Systèmes et équipements 系统及设备Déplacement et transport routier en Ile de France 大巴黎区的交通

Transports en commun urbains 城市公共交通Tramway de l’Agglomération Orléanaise 奥尔良城市及郊区轻轨

Infrastructures fluviales, maritimes et aéroportuaires 江河 , 沿海及航空港的基础设施 Extension du port de la Condamine à Monaco 摩那哥的孔达米纳的密集型港口

Infrastructures ferroviaires 铁路基础设施Ligne ferroviaire Lyon-Turin 里昂至都灵的铁路线

Tunnels 隧道Autoroutes (A43, A87, A89,...) 高速公路(A43,A87,A89…)

Ponts et routes 桥梁与公路Viaduc de Millau Millau 高架桥

Tunnel sous la Manche 英法海底隧道

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Presentation

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Major projects大型项目

Déplacements urbains 城市交通Déplacement et transport routier en Ile de France 大巴黎的交通和公路交通

Aménagement urbain 城市规划Ville nouvelle de NORTH BAHRAIN 北 BAHRAIN 新城

Déplacements urbains 城市交通Plan de déplacements urbains de l’ile-de-France (Paris)大巴黎区的城市移动图

Déplacements urbains 城市交通Révision du PDU de l’agglomération toulousaine 修正后的图卢兹城市及郊区的 PDU

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Transport and infrastructures交通运输与基础设施Environement 环境Urban planning 规划Building 建筑Industry 工业Telecom 电讯


Urban Public Transport 城市公共交通

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Traditional metros: Marseille, Lyon, Paris (Eole, Meteor) 传统地铁：马赛，里昂，巴黎（ Eole, Meteor)

Automatic metros: Val de Lille, Toulouse, Rennes, SAT de Roissy 自动化地铁： Val de Lille, 图卢兹 , Rennes, SAT de Roissy

Light Metro Systems (Tramway): Paris City and Paris Suburb, Caen, Nantes, Nancy, Nice, Orléans, Rouen, Strasbourg, Toulon, Valenciennes

轻轨：巴黎及巴黎区，卡昂，南特，南锡，尼斯，奥尔良， BRT: Val de Marne, Rouen, Douai, Lyon, Cannes…

专用道巴士：Urban transportation Plans and Sustainable Mobility Policies: Ile-de-France

(Paris), Monaco, Toulouse, Le Mans, Tours, Pau…城市交通规划：大巴黎，摩纳哥，图卢兹，图尔．．．

Intermodal nodes: Nantes, Cannes, Vannes, Ile-de-France交通中转枢纽：南特，冈市，大巴黎．．．

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Transport Modelling

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Modelling MethodologyTools and methodologyA Practical Guidebook for Urban Modelling for CERTUNew software for the French Road Administration

Urban and regional modelsCaen, Marseille, Reims, Toulon ,Toulouse area (multimodal models)Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Bordeaux (modèles routiers)Tokyo, Varsovie, Dakar (modèles routiers)

Intercity modelsPassenger traffic: National Multimodal Model for the French Railways (RFF), numerous High-Speed Lines in France (multimodal), Gibraltar tunnel between Spain and Marocco (multimodal), numerous road traffic models for motorways in France and abroadGoods traffic (multilodal): Lyons-Torino, Canal Seine-Nord Europe


Setec in China setec 在中国的项目

Opéra de Pékin (calcul des structures)国家歌剧院 ( 结构计算 )

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Why analyzing mobility?

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Modelling Methodology: Why a traffic model ?

Chinese Cities: an exponential growthVery important infrastructure works in a very short timeHow to define a consistent transport system?How to build an harmonious urban development and a sustainable

transport system?

Analyzing mobility enables to answer various questions and problems:Strategy, PlanningProgrammingEstimate of economical and financial profitabilityDesign of networksEnvironmental impact (noise, air pollution, greenhouse effect)


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Range of Services

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Modelling Methodology: Why a traffic model ?

Why and how modelling traffic and mobility?

Choices are made by politic leaders who need a decision support toolComplex phenomena, now and in the futureImportant impact of investments upon people life and public financesA model enables to know the sensitivity to various parameters

A model is necessarely schematic but it must not be a caricatureMust be based on reality (importance of field surveys) Must be transparent (data, assumptions)Must be considered as a tool used with critical thinking

A model is not a simple software but a complex process, including:Data basesMathematic formula Computer toolsUrban and socio-economic analysis and assumptionsCritical analysis of results, risk analysis


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Modelling Methodology: The Main Elements & Steps

Every mobility study using a model requires:

The definition of the study area and a zoningThe description of the various transport networksThe description of the transport demand (Origin-Destination matrices)The calibrated assignment of the transport demand on the various networks

(the model must describe the present situation: modal choice, flows and speeds on the various networks)

A set of assumptions for the future (network, demand, behaviour…)Forecasts

GenerationDistributionModal choiceAssignment

The classical four steps:


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Modelling Methodology: First Phase / Zoning

Definition of the study area and zoning:

The zoning is the basis of the modellingIt includes internal (mainly) and external zones

The zones must be homogeneous on an urban point of viewIt must be fine enough to analyze projects but……it must be consistent with available socio-economic and mobility data…it must be consistent with transport networks…it must be consistent with statistic procedures for calibrationIt must take into account special traffic generators as airports, big

commercial areas, universities, hospitals…

For a 10 million inhabitants city: 1000 to 2000 internal zonesFor a 1 million inhabitants city: 300 to 500 internal zones


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Modelling Methodology: First Phase / Zoning

Zoning/Network (Paris)


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Modelling Methodology: Second Phase / Data Bases

Data collection, analysis and classification

Getting good databases is a fundamental condition to build a useful model

Principle: several databases (socio-economics, counts, trip times measurements, mobility data) will be created and introduced in a GIS

Socio-economic data: population, employment, students, car ownership, incomes…

Origin-destination data:Households surveys (see CERTU)Screenlines surveys (around a city)Public transportation surveys

Counts: road and public transportationTrip times measurement: road, public transportation, bikesCar parkingNetwork description: road (flow-speed curves), public transportation


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Modelling Methodology: Second Phase / Data Base

Data collection: population data (GIS)


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Modelling Methodology: 3rd Phase/ Modelling chain

Calibration of the present situationHousehold survey Socio-economic data

Discrete choice methodAll modes generation-

distribution method

occupancy rate"Light" modes matrix Car matrix Public transport matrix Intermodal transport

Car calibration (assignment)

PT calibration (assignment)

Calibrated car matrix Calibrated PT matrix

OD survey for PT/PT trip times

Networks data (transport offer)

Regression

Modal choice model

Data Base Counts and Trip Times for Road


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Traffic Forecasts for the FuturePublic

Transport Projects

A scenario for social and economical development

Road Projects

Demand growth model (generation-distribution)

Traffic all modesac

cess

ibili

té

PT network PT supply Car supply Road network

Evolution of overall traffic (20XX - 2007)

assignment assignmentPT Traffic 20XX =

PT Traffic + EvolPT(20XX-

2007)

Car Traffic 20XX = Car Traffic +

EvolCar(20XX-2007)

Modal choice model


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Modal Choice Model: two examples

Multinomial LogitIndividual

Car driver Car passenger Car + PT Public Transport Walk Bike

Hierarchical LogitIndividual

"Light" mode Car Public Transport

Walk Car driver Only PT

Bike Car passenger Car+PT


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Modelling Methodology: some issues

Various uses of a traffic modelTraffic estimate

Planning / DesignIncomes of a toll workWho uses the infrastructure ?Impact on the various transport networks

Socio-economic analysisTime savingDecongestionAccessibility (isochrones)Design of networksEnvironmental impact (noise, air pollution, greenhouse effect)

Impact upon environmentNoiseTraffic model interfaced with a pollutant emission model

Emission depends on vehicles, speed, cool or hot engine…Traffic model interfaced with a pollutant spreading model

Spreading depends on topography and, especially, weather


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Traffic volume on a project

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Métro B : Borderouge > RamonvilleMontées Sc2020_V_PTCG_PLE Descentes Sc2020_V_PTCG_PLE Charge Sc2020_V_PTCG_PLE

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Who uses a project?


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Impact on transport networks


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Air pollution emission (here NOx)

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