Severe Solar Activity/Space Weather and the Global Threat to Electric Grids

John G. KappenmanStorm Analysis Consultants

A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms

Geomagnetic Storms have Continent-Wide &

Planetary Footprints

Geomagnetic Storms are disturbances in the Earth’s normally quiescent geomagnetic field caused by intense Solar activity

Intense Solar Activity

A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms

A rapidly changing geomagnetic field over large regions will induce Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (i.e. GIC a quasi-DC current) to

flow in the continental interconnected Electric Power Grids

Storm causes Geomagnetic Field Disturbances from Electrojet Current

that couple to Power Systems

Time 2:39-2:58 EST (7:39-7:58 UT)

March 13, 1989 – Storm 7:39UT

20 Minutes of Bad Space Weather

Time 2:39-2:58 EST (7:39-7:58 UT) Quebec Blackout in 92 Seconds at Intensity 0f ~480 nT/min

Reported Power System Events – March 13, 1989

Time 4:40-5:30 PM EST (21:40-22:30 UT)

March 13, 1989 – Storm 21:40UT

Time 16:03-17:30 EST (21:03-22:30 UT)Intensity over Mid-Atlantic Region

~300 nT/min

Reported Power System Events – March 13, 1989

765kV500kV345kV

US High-Voltage Transmission Network

European and Asian Continental Grids are of similar proportions

500 kV & 765 kV serve ~60% of US geographic territory and ~86% of US population

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High Voltage Transmission Line Miles

Growth of US Transmission Grid & Electric Energy Usage

GIC Risk Factor – Growth of Transmission NetworkThe larger the Grid – the Larger the Antenna to cause GIC

Cycle 19

Cycle 22

1953 – First 345 kV Transmission Line

1964 – First 500 kV Transmission Line

1969 – First 765 kV Transmission Line

A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms

2 0 0 2 / 0 9 / 2 7 0 0 : 0 4 : 0 0 . 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 / 0 9 / 2 7 0 0 : 0 4 : 0 0 . 0 0 0

Areas of Probable Power System

Collapse

Blackouts of Unprecedented

Scale

GIC flow in transformers can cause Power Grid Blackouts & Permanent Grid Damage

A Review of Power Grid Vulnerability to Solar Activity & Geomagnetic Storms

GIC flow can also has potential to cause wide-spread catastrophic damage to key Power Grid Transformers

Causing Restoration Problems

Salem Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Failure, March ‘89

InternalDamage due to one storm

These Key Assets may take a Year or More to Replace

Severe Geomagnetic Storm Scenario At-Risk 345kV, 500kV, & 765kV Transformers

Estimated that many large EHV Transformers would have sufficient GIC exposure to be At-Risk of Permanent Damage & Loss – Replacement could

extend into 4-10 years at current world production rates

Many Regions with High Damage Loss Estimated

Great Geomagnetic Storms US Electric Grid Vulnerability Trends and Preparedness

• Threat • New Awareness that Geomagnetic Storm Severity is 4 to 10

Times larger than previously understood – Past Metrics did not measure risks correctly for power industry

• Vulnerability • Power Grid infrastructures have experienced a “Design Creep”

over past few decades that have unknowingly escalated vulnerability to these threats – No Design Code Yet Exists

• Consequences • Power Supply is an essential scaffolding of modern society• All other Critical infrastructures will also collapse with long-term

loss of Electricity

• Risk – Events have catastrophic potential, the ability to take the lives of hundreds of people in one blow, or to shorten or cripple the lives of thousands or millions more, impact future generations of society

Great Geomagnetic Storms March 1989 Superstorm & May 1921 Storm Comparisons

Boundaries of Eastward Electrojet March 13, 1989

Position of Westward Electrojet

Great Geomagnetic Storms March 1989 Superstorm & May 1921 Storm Comparisons

Estimated Boundaries of Eastward Electrojet May 14-15, 1921

Larger & More Intense than March 1989

Great Geomagnetic Storms March 1989 Superstorm & May 1921 Storm Comparisons

Severe Geomagnetic Storms will have an even larger Planetary Footprint

Geomagnetic Storms – GIC & Conventional Wisdom

Conventional Wisdom•Only Power Grids at High Latitude Locations needed to worry about GIC•This did not explain Power Grid Problems Reported at Low-Latitudes

A New Class of GIC Risks•Large GICs are possible at Low-Latitudes and Have Caused Problems •Potential for Severe Storm to Cause Impacts to Developed Grids on a Planetary Scale

Southern Japan

South Africa

+/- 40o

Geomagnetic

Station 3 Gen Transformer 4 HV winding failure

Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5 evidence of overheating

Courtesy Eskom, Makhosi, T., G. Coetzee

Overview of South Africa EHV Transformer Failures due to Oct-Nov 2003 Geomagnetic Storms

Failures linked to Long Duration / Low Intensity GIC Exposure

Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer IncidentsWithin 25 months after the March 1989 Storm

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1. Salem2. Oyster Creek3. South Texas4. Shearon Harris5. Surry 16. Zion 27. WNP 28. Peach Bottom 39. D.C. Cook 110. Susquehanna11. Maine Yankee12. Nine-Mile

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Latent Impacts of March 1989 Storm – Delayed Failures of Large Transformers at Nuclear Plants suspected across US

Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Incidents

Nuclear Plants have some special vulnerability issues

•Severe Storms could initiate a Long Term Outage to large portions of the US electric grid – Including many Nuclear Power Plants all at the Same Time

•The Large Transformers in Nuclear Plants also have Higher Exposure to GIC, making them more Vulnerable to damage/failure

•Transformer Damage - Fire & Disruptive Failure of the Exposed Transformer - Collateral Damage to Vital Back-up and Cooling Systems at the Nuclear Plant

•Fukushima demonstrated that loss of outside power (Grid Blackout) & Plant Damage to Back-up Systems has severe consequences for both reactors and spent fuel pools

Nuclear Plant GSU Transformer Incidents

Above Movie is Disruptive Failure of ~3MVA Transformer Nuclear Plant Transformers can be 400 Times Larger Capacity

Movie of Transformer Disruptive Failure – NOT DUE TO GIC

Wrap-UpThe Nation has experienced a Several Decade Long Failure to

Understand how Risk has Migrated into our Electric Grid Infrastructures from Space Weather Threats

What are the Issues We should Understand Going Forward

•The Sun, Magnetosphere remain fully Capable of Producing Historically Large Geomagnetic Storms in the Future

•Grid Design Evolutions have unknowingly Escalated GIC Risks and Potential Impacts

Un-Recognized Systemic Risk – No Design Code Yet to minimize this Threat

•Given Sufficient Time the Reoccurrence of Large Storm Event is a Certainty – Only with Much more Serious Consequences