Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 30032011

8/6/2019 Share Tips Expert Commodity Report 30032011

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Daily Commodity Market Update as on Wednesday, March 30, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG

GOLD 20702 20724 20614 20641 -0.42

SILVER 55310 55419 54740 55165 -0.47

GOLD 1416.9 1419.5 1414.4 1416.3 -0.18

SILVER 37.04 37.17 36.87 36.95 -0.35

PLATINUM 1732.5 1741.99 1732.5 1743 0.32

Bullion's failure to capitalize gains on recent strong

volume suggested some investors are skeptical when

central banks are about to rein in money supply to

prevent inflation.SPOT $

MCX


CRUDE 4709 4712 4630 4697 -0.47

N.GAS 204.5 204.5 194 194.8 -5.24

ENERGY COMPLEX

Oil prices eased as an expected rise in U.S. domestic

crude stocks offset support from unrest in Libya and the

Middle East. Natural gas ended down as markets

speculated that the recent rally that took prices to a

seven-week high had accounted for the boost to heating

MCX

CRUDE 103.94 105 102.7 104.79 0.817779


demand resulting from the current cold front to hit the

U.S.

BASEMETAL COMPLEX

Base metal recovered its losses on short covering after

prices traded in weak to range bound complex as

MCX

. . . . .

ZINC 104.65 105.8 103.35 105.55 1.04

NICKEL 1179.3 1194.4 1168.2 1191.3 1.16

LEAD 119.5 122.55 118.35 122.1 1.92

ALUMINIUM 115.95 117.45 115.3 117.25 0.94

COPPER 9570 9578 9530 9558 -0.25 -400

ZINC 2375 2375 2356.75 2365 -0.63 2450

investors continue to digest recent developments in

Japan's nuclear crisis but await clarification on potential

monetary tightening measures in China and the euro

zone.

LME STOCKLM E

COPPER

ZINC

439500

737100. .

NICKEL 26501 2647 26400 26488 -0.42 420

LEAD 2680 2687 2670 2675 -0.74 -125

ALUMINIUM 2642.25 2687 2641 2643 -0.26 -3500

SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX

19259.48 5775.2 2325.54 1319.44 8345.38 12279.01 9619.39 2943.85 2088 23426.22 76.29

NICKEL

LEAD

ALUMINIUM

124506

283675

4602600

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

0.73 0.68 0.97 0.71 0.59 0.67 1.66 -0.48 0.77 1.57 0.06

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OPEN

20702

HIGH

LOW

20614

-0.42

20724

% CNG

VOLUME

CLOSE

20641

F U T U R

E

-87

7195

RE CNG

21441

OI

INTRADAY LEVELS

X

G O L D

Gold extended losses and closed down by -0.42% that is at 20641 hovering near the lowest level in

P.P. 20660

SUP 1 RES 1

20595 20705

SUP 2 RES 2

20550 20770

SUP 3 RES 3

20485 20815

M C

.and dampened demand for the precious metal. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the

FOMC “may not be willing or able to wait until all global uncertainties are resolved to begin

normalizing policy”. Meanwhile, ECB President said on Monday that inflation rates remained

“durably” above its price stability target, reinforcing expectations the central bank would raise

interest rates as early as April. Rate hikes tend to dampen gold prices in the short term, but over the

long run, gold still benefits from rising inflation as investors seek safe haven options. Now gold is

getting support at 20595 and below could see a test of 20550 levels, and resistance is now likely to

be seen at 20705, a move above could see prices testing 20770.

55310

HIGH

55419

54740

OPEN

LOW

U R

E

OI

15564

76110

-0.47

VOLUME

RE CNG

55165

% CNG

V E R F U

P.P. 55108

SUP 1 RES 1

54797 55476

SUP 2 RES 2

INTRADAY LEVELSSilver prices fell by Rs 261 to Rs 55165 per kg in futures trading on sustained selling by speculators

in line with a weakening global trend. Silver futures erased the early losses, retreating from the

lowest level in almost seven days after disappointing U.S. economic data and amid lingering fears

over the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis. The prospect of tightening monetary policy is casting a

shadow over the bullion outlook. Bullion tends to benefit from low real interest rates, as they reduce

-

-261

M C X S

I

54429 55787

SUP 3 RES 3

54118 56155

Page No. 2

e oppor un y cos o o ng non- n eres ear ng u on. ow ec n ca y mar e s ra ng n e

range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 68.56, where as 50DMA is at 50491.84 and silver is

trading above the same and getting support at 54797 and below could see a test of 54429 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 55476, a move above could see prices testing 55787.

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4709

HIGH

OPEN

4697

% CNG

-0.47

VOLUME

4712

LOW

4630CLOSE

F U T U R E

17427

RE CNG

-22

INTRADAY LEVELSCrude oil settled down slumping to the lowest level in a week after rebel forces in Libya captured key

-

137095

OI

C R U D E

P.P. 4680

SUP 1 RES 1

4647 4729

SUP 2 RES 2

4598 4762

SUP 3 RES 3

4565 4811

, . -forces gained ground against Gaddafi’s troop’s overnight, regaining control over the major oil ports

of Brega and Ras Lanuf in eastern Libya. Obama reiterated Monday that the US would work to

remove Gaddafi from power, while a U.S. Treasury Department official said that Libyan rebels would

not face sanctions if they resumed oil production in fields formerly operated by Gaddafi’s

government. Crude oil prices came under pressure as an expected rise in U.S. domestic crude

stocks, meanwhile, Saudi Arabia unveiling plans to increase the country's rig count this year to 118,

from approximately 92 now, in efforts to boost production capacity. Now crude is getting support at

4647 and below could see a test of 4598 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4729, a

M C

HIGH

433.65LOW

427.35 T U R

EOPEN

431.85

RE CNG

% CNG

0.01

VOLUME

107695

OI

19636

432.65

P P E R F U

P.P. 431.2

SUP 1 RES 1

428.8 435.1

SUP 2 RES 2

0.05

INTRADAY LEVELSCopper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.01% up at 432.65 recovered losses

which we have seen earlier from a one-week low, but small gains were capped as concerns over

Italian banks blunted risk appetite. A surprise announcement by Italy's UBI Banca's of a $1.4 billion

capital hike battered risk appetite, dragging down European stocks on speculation that other lenders

could be heading down the same road. Global macro concerns have resurfaced and along with

expected interest rate rises, are weighing on the industrial metals complex. Consensus is building M C X C

O

424.9 437.5

SUP 3 RES 3

422.5 441.4

that Chinese copper consumers may not return to the market until after the second quarter, given

rising stocks and slack demand signals. This is easing concerns over tight supply that have boosted

prices this year. For today's session market is looking to take support at 428.8, a break below could

see a test of 424.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 435.1, a move above could

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104.65

HIGH

OPEN

105.55

% CNG

1.04

VOLUME

105.8

LOW

103.35CLOSE

U T U R

E

5276

RE CNG

1.1

INTRADAY LEVELSZinc yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.04% up at 105.55 after data

’ - -

21310

OI

X

Z I N C

P.P. 104.9

SUP 1 RES 1

104.0 106.5

SUP 2 RES 2

102.5 107.4

SUP 3 RES 3

101.6 108.9

re ease , or arc was . , ower an e ruary s . e ower- an- orecashas eased concerns over the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s tightening monetary policies. In this

context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average overnight rose 81.13 to close at 12,279.01; the

Nasdaq Composite Index rose 26.21 to close at 2,756.89, driving up LME zinc prices overnight

to stabilize at the 10-day moving average, with prices finally closing at USD 2,347/mt, up

USD 8/mt. In yesterday's trading session zinc has touched the low of 103.35 after opening at

104.65, and finally settled at 105.55. For today's session market is looking to take support at

104, a break below could see a test of 102.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen

M C

HIGH

1194.4LOW

1168.2 U R

EOPEN

1179.3

RE CNG

% CNG

1.16

VOLUME

41474

OI

6072

1191.3

K E L F U

P.P. 1185

SUP 1 RES 1

1175 1201

SUP 2 RES 2

13.8

INTRADAY LEVELSNickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.16% up at 1191.3 tracking LME nickel

contract for delivery in three months which opened at USD 26,100/mt and closed at USD 26,600/mt

over night, down by USD 871/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 26,690/mt and

the lowest price at USD 26,020/mt. LME base metal prices closed with gains on Tuesday, as the US

dollar weakened and concern over tight monetary policy from the US relieved to certain extent. LME

nickel futures contract for delivery in three months firstly slipped but later rallied, with prices hitting M C X N

I

1158 1211

SUP 3 RES 3

1149 1227

the lowest at USD 26,000/mt. However, LME nickel prices pared early losses during the European

trading hours, with prices finally closing around USD 26,600/mt on March 30. Demand was weak in

domestic spot market, but spot nickel prices are expected to advance from overnight LME nickel

price rally. For today's session market is looking to take support at 1174.9, a break below could see




OPEN

115.95

HIGH R

% CNG

0.94

VOLUME

117.45

LOW

115.3CLOSE

117.25

U M F U

T

4502

OI

1488

RE CNG

Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.94% up at 117.25 as the US dollar

1.1

INTRADAY LEVELS L U M I N I

P.P. 116.7

SUP 1 RES 1

115.9 118.0

SUP 2 RES 2

114.5 118.8

SUP 3 RES 3

113.7 120.2

n ex uc ua e w e y an na y c ose a . , own . rom e prev ous r a ng ay, ordown 0.16%. LME aluminum prices overnight opened at USD 2,625/mt, and fell to USD 2,604/mt in

the morning session. Driven up by the weakening US dollar index and rising crude prices, LME

aluminum prices soared to USD 2,656/m in European trading hours, with prices finally closing at

USD 2,649.5/mt at the end of trading, up USD 32.5/mt from the previous trading day, or up 1.24%.

LME aluminum prices fluctuated at high levels between USD 2,620-2,660/mt boosted by rising crude

prices. For today's session market is looking to take support at 115.9, a break below could see a test

of 114.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 118, a move above could see prices

testing 118.8.

M C X

LOW

T U R E

OPEN

204.5

HIGH

204.5

194

9218

RE CNG

OI

VOLUME

36960

-5.24

194.8

. G A S

F % CNG

P.P. 197.8

SUP 1 RES 1

191.0 201.5

SUP 2 RES 2

Natural gas yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -5.24% down at 194.8 as markets

speculated that the recent rally that took prices to a seven-week high had accounted for the boost to

heating demand resulting from the current cold front to hit the U.S. Natural gas futures have rallied

nearly 17% since hitting a five-month low of USD3.729 per mBtu on March 7 as colder-than-normal

early spring weather in key gas-heating markets boosted demand for the heating fuel. The recent

rally prompted some investors to sell their position on profit taking and lock in gains on the view that

-10.2

INTRADAY LEVELS

C X N A

187.3 208.3

SUP 3 RES 3

180.5 212.0

spring’s low-demand season was approaching. Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's

mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to

power air conditioning. For today's session market is looking to take support at 191, a break below

could see a test of 187.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.5, a move above

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DAILY SPR EAD IN SILVER - MCXDAILY SPR EAD IN GOLD - MCX

ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE AUG MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT

APRIL 20641 295 621 MAY 55165 672 1334

JUNE 20936 326 JULY 55837 662AUG 21262 SEPT 56499

Spread between Gold APR & JUN contracts yesterday

ended at 295, we have seen yesterday that the gold

market had traded with a negative node and settled -

0.42% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 281

- 295.

Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday

ended at 672, we have seen yesterday that the silver


0.47% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of

658 - 690.

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE

APRIL 4697 55 109 APRIL 432.65 5.15

MAY 4752 54 JUNE 437.8

JUNE 4806

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX

Sprea etween cru e MAR & APR contracts yester ay

ended at 55, we have seen yesterday that the crude


0.47% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 44

58.

DAILY SPR EAD IN ZINC - MCX

Sprea etween copper APR & JUN contracts yester ay

ended at 5.15, we have seen yesterday that the copper

market had traded with a positive node and settled

0.01% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.15 -

5.55.

DAILY SPR EAD IN NI CKEL - MCX A R K E T

MONTH MONTH

MARCH 105.55 1 MARCH 1191.3 8.6

APRIL 106.55 APRIL 1199.9

Spread between zinc MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 1, we have seen yesterday that the zinc markethad traded with a positive node and settled 1.04% up.

Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.2.

Spread between nickel MAR & APR contracts yesterday

ended at 8.60, we have seen yesterday that the nickelmarket had traded with a positive node and settled

1.16% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 8.60 -

13.2. P R E A D

MONTH RATE APRIL MAY MONTH RATE APRIL MAY

APRIL 194.8 5 APRIL 1086 -134

MAY 199.8 MAY 952

S read between natural as APR & MAY contracts S read between menthol oil APR & MAY contracts

DAILY SPREAD I N MENTHOL - MCXDAILY SPREAD IN N AT. GAS - MCX

yesterday ended at 5.00, we have seen yesterday that the

natural gas market had traded with a negative node and

settled -5.24% down. Spread yesterday traded in therange of 4.1 - 5.

yesterday ended at -134.00, we have seen yesterday that

the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node

and settled -2.79% down. Spread yesterday traded in therange of -149.5 to -134.




DAY TIME CURRENCY Fo re cast P re viou s

2:00pm GBP -0.006 -0.007

DATA

Index of Services 3m/ 3m L

3:30pm GBP -1 6

5:00pm USD 0 0.2

5:45pm USD 205K 217K8:00pm USD 1.6M 2.1M

9:00pm GBP 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0

0

0

Wed

Challenger Job Cuts y/ y

ADP Non-Farm Employment ChangeCrude Oil Inventories

MPC Member Fisher Speaks

CBI Realized Sales

O N O M I

C

D A T A

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

Nigeria has increased its production capacity of natural rubber by 2.5 per cent and now exports 60,000 tons of

E C 0

0

0

0

E

natural rubber annually. This is to bring production capacity to what it was in the sixties. The Permanent Secretary,

Ministry of Agriculture, Mrs Fatima Bamidele, made this disclosure in Abuja yesterday on the occasion of the

validation workshop on development of national programme on Tree and Horticultural crops seeds/seedling. The

Permanent Secretary stated that before now palm oil was generating great revenue for the country before the

diversification to crude oil. According to her "cocoa and cashew are major foreign exchange earners and Nigeria has

comparative advantage in their production. The Presidential initiative on cocoa, palm oil, rubber and cashew has

boosted their production and exports. Nigeria recorded 20-fold increase in the production of cashew from 1990 to

2000".The National target of planting 420,000 hectares from 2007 -2011 would require the production and update of

52.5m seed, she said.

C A

N

URiding on a strong Kharif crop in the last season and Rabi crop in ongoing season, the Indian farm sector is set for a

bumper growth year. The agriculture ministry in its latest projections has pegged the overall growth in the farm

sector at 5.4% compared with the production levels in the last fiscal. According to the analysis done by the

agriculture ministry, there has been substantial growth in area under cultivation of major crops and most of the grain

as well as cash crops from both the Kharif and Rabi seasons will see significant year-on-year growth in the current

fiscal. While the rowth can be artl attributed to low base im rovement in weather rediction s stems also et

W S Y O

. ,

part of the credit according to the government. India's farm sector production had been miserable in previous two

years. The first half growth in current fiscal has been reported at 3.8% which marks substantial improvement over

growth of (-) 0.1% and 0.4% in previous two years. Good monsoon last year however boosted the Kharif crop while

some late rains also improved soil moisture and resulted in good conditions for the Rabi crop as well. Despite the

better growth seen in farm sector, its share in overall national income however will continue to fall in current fiscal as

well. As per the Central Statistical Organization’s (CSO) estimates, the share of agriculture in the country’s GDP has

fallen from 17.4% in 2006-07 to 14.2% in 2011-11. The falling share of agriculture in GDP though is an expected

outcome in a fast growing and structurally changing economy.

NIndian federal bond yields were range bound on Tuesday as absence of fresh triggers held traders back from taking

large positions, but there was demand from banks to boost valuations before the financial year ends on Thursday.

the yield on the most-traded 8.08 percent 2022 bond and the second most-traded 8.13 percent 2022 bond were both

up 1 basis point at 8.04 percent and 8.02 percent respectively. Both bonds had earlier eased 1 basis point. The less

liquid 10-year benchmark bond yield was flat at 7.98 percent after having dropped to 7.97 percent earlier. Total

volume was a moderate 21.25 billion rupees ($474 million) on the central bank's electronic trading platform. The


industrial output and inflation data are due in mid-April. The central bank will announce its annual monetary policy for

the next fiscal year on May 3 and the data would be crucial for cementing expectations of a 25 basis points hike in

key rates.



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Disclaimer

The report and calls made herein are for general information purpose and report contains only the viewpoints. We make norepresentation or warranty regarding the correctness, accuracy or completeness of any information, and are not responsible for

errors of any kind even though we have taken utmost care in obtaining the information from sources which are believed to be

reliable, which are publicly available. The information contained herein is strictly confidential and is meant for the intended

recipients. Any alteration, transmission, photocopied distribution in part or in whole or reproduction of any form of the

information without prior consent of SHARETIPSEXPERT GROUP is prohibited. The information and data are derived from the

source that are deemed & believed to be reliable and the calls are based on the theory of Technical Analysis. Neither the


company nor its employees are responsible for the trading Profit(es) & loss(es) arising due to the trader. The commodities and

derivatives discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors falling under different categories

and jurisdictions. All futures trading entail significant risk, which should be fully understood prior to trading.

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