W e definitely assume that the safe area for SiC technology will be the high and very high-voltage applications (1.7kV to 10kV+) where GaN cannot easily go and where incumbent Silicon technologies are slowly reaching their limits. In the 10kV and more, SiC could be the dominant solution. However, and paradoxically, few players are targeting that high-voltage region, probably because the existing market is small (about $2B TAM), unclear time-to-market and limited number of applications. HIGH VOLTAGE: HUGE POTENTIAL BUT FEW PLAYERS… SiC market is now a real industry, not a niche anymore... S iC device makers now offer the 2 most expected devices in the power electronics industry: the diode and the transistor. 2011 is the year of the first SiC MOSFET introduction with simultaneous offers from Rohm and CREE. These devices are used in real systems (air conditioners, motor drives, PV inverters…) and significant effort is being directed toward the packaging side to capture all the added-value of the SiC (High T°, high frequency….) Thus, the open SiC device market has exceeded $50M in 2010 (excluding defense-related and R&D contracts) with an unexpectedly high penetration in the PV inverter segment where SiC Schottky diodes are now implemented in numerous systems, taking about 15% of the SiC device sales. PFC systems are still the top SiC device sales. The pending question remains the same: will SiC be implemented in EV/HEV and when? Here several scenarios may be envisioned. In our optimistic scenario, the automotive-related business will start by 2014 with a fast ramp-up and will capture more than 60% of the SiC device business in 2020. On the other hand, in our pessimistic scenario SiC could be skipped by auto makers who may prefer GaN or incumbent Silicon technology. The investment level in the SiC industry has never been so huge: Over $100M has been invested in M&A, R&D programs, private and public funding over 2010 and early 2011. Very recently the SiC industry has also started to consolidate through M&A, large investments or license agreements. Over the last 18 months, the most significant were: • Rohm – SiCrystal: acquisition • Power Integration – SemiSouth: large investment • Fairchild – TranSiC: acquisition • Cree – Nippon Steel Corp.: license agreement • SKC – Crysband: acquisition • Infineon – SiCed: 100% acquisition SiC Market 2010-2020: 10 year market projection... TECHNOLOGY & MARKET REPORT – NOVEMBER 2011 SiC INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION AND RESHAPING HAS STARTED Source: Yole Développement S ou r ce : Y o le Dével op p p e m e n t SiC Power Applications Relative market shares to 2020 Fig 1: SiC device market shares to 2020 by application (optimistic scenario)
Transcript
We definitely assume that the safe area for SiC technology will be the high and very high-voltage applications (1.7kV to 10kV+) where GaN cannot easily go and where incumbent Silicon
technologies are slowly reaching their limits. In the 10kV and more, SiC could be the dominant solution. However, and paradoxically, few players are targeting that high-voltage region, probably because the existing market is small (about $2B TAM), unclear time-to-market and limited number of applications.
HIGH VOLTAGE: HUGE POTENTIAL BUT FEW PLAYERS…
SiC market is now a real industry, not a niche anymore...
SiC device makers now offer the 2 most expected devices in the
power electronics industry: the diode and the transistor. 2011 is the year of the first SiC MOSFET introduction with simultaneous offers from Rohm and CREE.These devices are used in real systems (air conditioners, motor drives, PV inverters…) and significant effort is being directed toward the packaging side to capture all the added-value of the SiC (High T°, high frequency….)Thus, the open SiC device market has exceeded $50M i n 2010 (excluding defense-related and R&D contracts) with an unexpectedly high penetration in the PV inverter segment where SiC Schottky diodes are now implemented in numerous systems, taking about 15% of the SiC device sales. PFC systems are still the top SiC device sales. The pending question remains the same: will SiC be implemented in EV/HEV and when? Here several scenarios may be envisioned. In our optimistic scenario, the automotive-related business will start by 2014 with a fast ramp-up and will capture more than 60% of the SiC device business in 2020. On the other hand, in our pessimistic scenario SiC could be skipped by auto makers who may prefer GaN or incumbent Silicon technology.The investment level in the SiC industry has never been so huge: Over $100M has been invested in M&A, R&D programs, private and public funding over 2010 and early 2011.Very recently the SiC industry has also started to consolidate through M&A, large investments or license agreements. Over the last 18 months, the most significant were: • Rohm – SiCrystal: acquisition • Power Integration – SemiSouth: large investment • Fairchild – TranSiC: acquisition • Cree – Nippon Steel Corp.: license agreement • SKC – Crysband: acquisition • Infineon – SiCed: 100% acquisition
SiC Market2010-2020: 10 year market projection...
TECHNOLOGY & MARKET REPORT – NOVEMBER 2011
SiC INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION AND RESHAPING HAS STARTED
Source: Yole Développement Sourcerr : YoYY le Développpp ement
SiC Power Applications Relative market shares to 2020
Fig 1: SiC device market shares to 2020 by application (optimistic scenario)
Although 6” SiC wafer capacity is now ramping-up for LED
production at CREE, the power industry is not yet able to access it in volume. We expect 2012 to be the starting point for a wide diffusion of this 150mm substrate that should act as an incentive for the remaining reluctant companies, arguing that SiC wafers are not compatible with their existing tool-kit.
6” IS READY BUT NOT ACCESSIBLE IN VOLUME
LIFE AND DEATH: IS CHINA THE NEW ELDORADO FOR SiC BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT?
IS SiC SELF-PROTECTED AGAINST GaN MARKET PENETRATION?
Of the 7 new entrants listed in the last 12 months, 4 were established in China and 3 among them were dedicated to material (raw wafer and/or epi). Epiworld, TianYue and TYSTC have invested
extensively in top-class equipment to produce both SiC wafers and epiwafers. Kingway Technology will be active in the device area with a double entry: SiC and GaN from epi to device.2 startups have ambitions of SiC device activity: Anvil Semiconductors in the UK and Ascatron, a spin-off from Swedish ACREO.On the exit side, we have noticed the NeoSemiTech decision to cut its SiC activity as well as the 100% acquisition of SiCed by Infineon (formerly owned jointly with Siemens).
In most of our investigations, GaN is always mentioned as THE competing technology that can disrupt the expected natural and organic growth of the SiC business. Originally we though GaN devices could
have created turbulence in the SiC area starting from 2010, by proposing 600V devices with a tip-point at 1.2kV. However it seems that the technology achievements have been delayed compared to the previous roadmap and only 200V GaN device are available in volume as of now. Thus, at the moment, the 600V blurry region where SiC and GaN are supposed to fight is safe for SiC as no device can compete yet.
CREE
transition to 4” Infineon transition
to 4”
Source: Yole Développement
CREE
to possibly start 6” commercialization
Fig 2: SiC substrate diameter evolution in power electronics applications
Alexandre AVRON is a full time analyst in power electronics at Yole Développement. He was granted a Master degree in Electrical engineering, with a major in power electronics and microelectronics
processes, from Applied Sciences National Institute (INSA) of Lyon, France.
Philippe ROUSSEL, Ph.D holds a Ph-D in Integrated Electronics Systems from the National Institute of Applied Sciences (INSA) in LYON.He joined Yole Développement in 1998 and is leading the Compound
Semiconductors, LED, Power Electronics and Photovoltaic department.
TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTSGLOSSARYMETHODOLOGY, LIMITATIONS AND YOLE PROPRIETARY TOOLSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY P5 • Our Vision of SiC Market for the Next 10 Years Conditions for success… • Comparison with 2010 Report. What we saw, what we missed, what has moved… • SiC device sales in 2010 • SiC-based Device Revenues and Related 2010 Company Market Shares • SiC market penetration : The 2 scenarios for EV/HEV • 10-year Projection of SiC Power Device Market Size Split by applications. Optimistic scenario • Relative market shares to 2020 • Market Size Projection for SiC Substrates in Various Applications 2010-2020 • SiC Wafers for Power Electronics Market volume projection split by diameter 2010-2020
Noteworthy News - The New Entrants and the exits since 2009 - Recent Known Funding for SiC Development
FROM SILICON TO SIC: TOTAL ACCESSIBLE MARKET ANALYSIS P23 • Value-proposition compared to Si and GaN • Silicon vs. SiC Device Characteristics “Reality of silicon & expectations of SiC” • Why Would SiC Replace Silicon in Power Electronics? • Possible applications in silicon power electronics • 2006-2020 overall PE market size, split by device type • Focus on discrete devices. Market size, split by type • Market size, split by voltage range • Market segmentation as a function of voltage range • SiC Device Market Shares in % Split by voltage range to 2020 • Power range of the targeted applications • SiC Device Application Roadmap Time to market • Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market • % of SiC device over total silicon power device market to 2020 • Reasons for SiC added values • SiC use, expected improvements in power conversion efficiency • SiC vs. GaN vs. Si Figure-of-merit • Conclusions
SiC INDUSTRY OUTLOOK P41 • Main SiC Fabs in Europe • Main SiC Fabs in the US • Main SiC Fabs in Japan • Main SiC Fabs in Asia (Apart from Japan) • Position of Main Companies over SiC Value-chain • Research Programs
LOW-VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS P58• POWER FACTOR CORRECTOR MARKET P59 • Main metrics • SiC or GaN Main Added-value in PFC circuits • PFC Efficiency Comparison • Influence of switching frequency on the size and weight of the PFC module Si vs. SiC • Main market requirements for PFC applications • Comparison of Si, SiC and GaN Diode Cost in a PFC Module • 2010-2020 market forecast in units and revenues for PFC SiC Schottky Diodes • 2010-2020 wafer consumption for PFC business • 2010-2020 substrate market value in PFC business • SiC Schottky diode available on the Market As off Q4 2011 • Conclusions and Perspectives
MEDIUM-VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS P71• EV/HEV MARKET P72 • EV/HEV Types and Availability • HEV/EV Principles and Functionalities • EV/HEV Annual Demand Forecast to 2020 in M units Toyota HEV Power Module Overview • Roadmap for Operation Voltage in HEV • HEV Inverter Module Cost Breakdown • Expected Improvements of SiC Introduction in HEV for the 3 main applications • The TOP 5 Key Requirements For power transistors in • Toyota vision of WBG technology use in HEV: GaN vs. SiC & vertical vs. Lateral • Case-Study: Impact of SiC on a Toyota Prius • Silicon vs. SiC vs. GaN PHEV Power Control Unit Cost Breakdown • Devices roadmap for Micro/Mild Hybrid • Devices roadmap for Full/Plug-in Hybrid and EV • Overall market for Power Modules in EV/HEV applications. All technologies • SiC market penetration in EV/HEV: The 2 scenarios • Sales Projection of SiC devices in EV/HEV applications in Munits • Market size of SiC diode and FET in EV/HEV applications. • Market size and volume for SiC wafers in EV/HEV applications • Conclusion
• PV INVERTERS P96 • Solar Market Segmentation • PV Inverter Overview System & Component & Material Architecture
• DC/AC stage component chart • Multi-level H-bridges architecture • Components used for PV inverter • Implementation of new technologies: SiC vs. GaN • SiC vs. GaN battle • Danfoss Power Module Reverse Engineering • Danfoss Power Module Cost breakdown • NPC architecture • PV Inverter Market • Worldwide shipments by market segment • Additional cost related to added value across the supply chain • TOP-5 Main Manufacturers of Solar Inverters • SiC Device Market size and volume for PV Inverters. Split by type • SiC Wafer market for PV Inverters • Market volume and size by diameter • Conclusions
• UPS (UNINTERRUPTED POWER SUPPLY) MARKET P113 • UPS Product Segments • Projection of World UPS Market to 2020 Split by power range • UPS Vendor Market Shares • UPS Architecture Examples • Silicon and SiC Device Market in UPS Applications 2010-2020 forecast • SiC device market size & volume in UPS 2010-2020 forecast • SiC Substrate Market in UPS Applications 2010-2020 forecast • Conclusion
• INDUSTRIAL MOTOR AC DRIVE MARKET P122 • AC Drive Applications • Motor Drive History • AC Drive Market • AC Drive Market as a Function of Power Range 2010-2020 projection • Total accessible market volume • Market shares • Supply-chain • Electronic architecture • SiC in AC Drives: Results from Rockwell Automation • SiC device market size for AC Drive Applications 2010-2020 • SiC Substrate Market for Motor AC Drive Applications In units and $ • Conclusions
• AIR CONDITIONER P137 • Market • Definition and topology • Mitsubishi SiC hybrid IPM • High-Voltage IC market forecasts • Conclusion
HIGH-VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS P143• WIND TURBINES P144 • Wind turbine elements • Three main topologies for wind turbine inverters • Architecture split forecasts DFIG vs. Full converter • Inverter characteristics by generator architecture • Semiconductor for wind turbine • Power vs. frequency • Components used for wind turbine • Global wind market forecasts • Yearly installed capacity • Global wind turbine market size Split by player • Supply chain • Wind Turbine Market Trends • Wind turbine converters power modules • DFIG converters / Full converters • SiC chip Market for DFIG Wind converters in units and $ • SiC chip Market for Full Wind converters in units and $ • SiC substrate market for Wind Turbine applications
• RAIL TRACTION P160 • From Grid to IGBT. Typical voltage range • Train Rolling Stock Manufacturers • Estimate of the world market share • Power electronics parts in rail traction • Auxiliary inverters definition and outlook • Main Voltage Ranges Implemented by Major Train Manufacturers • World Market Volume For IGBT modules used in rail transportation split by voltage • SiC Introduction in Rail Transportation Tentative roadmap • SiC Substrate Market Size for Rail Traction • Conclusion
• SMART POWER GRID P170 • Electric Grid Management Trends • Growing Need for Electricity will double from 2004 to 2030 • Transition From Today’s Architecture to Tomorrow’s Distributed Network and Smart Grid Management • Smart Power Distribution Sytem Architectures • HVDC & FACTS • HVDC and FACTS Use • HVDC and FACTS Main Advantage • HVDC and FACTS Market Data • HVDC Standard and HVDC Light From ABB • Voltage Source Converters • HVDC light • Typical IGBT Setup in an HVDC Light System
• Estimated Worldwide HVDC Installed Capacity in MW • FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems Technologies • FACTS Technologies • Example of Supply-Chain in Power Grids • Silicon and SiC Devices in HVDC & FACTS Applications Market size estimate • SiC Substrate in HVDC & FACTS Applications Market size
• SHIP AND VESSEL PROPULSION P187 • Market segments • Ships definition • Example of propulsion setup • Market outlook - annual demand in units • Current silicon IGBT use and hypothesis • IGBT module shipments in units • Market for Power Devices in ship & vessel propulsion • SiC Substrate Market for Ship and Vessel Propulsion in units and $
• CONCLUSIONS FOR HIGH-VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS P197
SiC TECHNOLOGY DISCRETE DEVICE & POWER MODULE P198 • SiC Device Processing • Main manufacturing steps • $/mm² for SiC Raw Substrates and Processed Devices 2010 and 2015 • SiC Power Devices chips size and power density • Current Density: SiC material price pushes for high A/mm² • Current Density (A/mm²) Roadmap to 2020 • SiC switches: Who is active? 2010 status • SiC transistors commercially available as off Q4 2011 • SiC Device Voltage Range Covered By main companies (Prod. or R&D) • 2011 MOSFET Cost Breakdown Projection From 4” wafer to 1,200V/20A packaged dies • Main Power Module Products Implementing SiC Devices
SiC SUBSTRATE AND EPI MARKET P219 • State-of-the-art in SiC Crystal Growth • SiC growth technologies, main concepts • From polytype to devices • From Powder to SiC Epi-ready Wafers • SiC Crystal Growth Technique • Main SiC Material Manufacturing Site Locations • SiC Substrates estimated monthly production • Material Polytypes, Doping & Orientation Commercially Available • SiC Substrate Vendor Revenues & Related Market Shares 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 & 2010 • Evolution of S.I. SiC wafer market share 2007-2010 for RF applications • Evolution of relative market shares in the SiC business 2006-2010 • Key Accounts of Main SiC Material Vendors • SiC Epi-house and Epi-service Offers • Known epi-house – device maker relationships • Epi-service capability • Epitaxy capacity. 2010 worldwide situation • SiC epitaxy. Evolution forecast • SiC epitaxy market: opportunity for a epi-service house • SiC epitaxy market estimation: The µm.wafer method • Annual volume of epitaxy demand in µm.wafer, split by applications to 2020 • Market projection for SiC epitaxy demand to 2020 • Focus on outsourced SiC epitaxy business revenues to 2020 • Overview of SiC Epi-reactor Install-base (non-exhaustive list) • Geographical breakdown of epi-reactors installed base • Wafer Diameter Evolution in Production for Power Electronics 2005-2020 • Wafer Diameter Evolution in Production for GaN/SiC LED 2005-2020 • Wafer Diameter Evolution in Production for GaN/SiC RF devices. 2005-2020 • 2005-2020 SiC Raw Substrate Price Evolution Split by type (S.I. / n-type) and diameter (2”, 3”, 4” and 6”) • Volume Dependence of SiC n-type Pricing as a function of the lot size • Market Projection for SiC Substrates in Various Applications 2010-2020 • Market Volume Projection of SiC Wafers for power electronics split by diameter 2010-2020 • Conclusions
APPENDIX P254 • Impact of the Off-cut on the Ingot Yield • Sumitomo Metal Industries Liquid phase epitaxy process • LPE-EPI (Milano, italy) • Epigress (Aixtron Group) • Ezan (Ru)
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This person shall also be responsible for respect of the copyrights and will guaranty that the Products are not disseminated out of the company.6.5 In the context of annual subscriptions, the person of contact shall decide who within the Buyer, shall be entitled to access on line the reports on I-micronews.com. In this respect, the Seller will give the Buyer a maximum of 10 password, unless the multiple sites organisation of the Buyer requires more passwords. The Seller reserves the right to check from time to time the correct use of this password.6.6 In the case of a multisite, multilicence, only the employee of the buyer can access the report or the employee of the companies in which the buyer have 100% shares. As a matter of fact the investor of a company, the joint venture done with a third party etc… can not access the report and should pay a full licence price.7. Termination7.1 If the Buyer cancels the order in whole or in part or postpones the date of mailing, the Buyer shall indemnify the Seller for the entire costs that have been incurred as at the date of notification by the Buyer of such delay or cancellation. This may also apply for any other direct or indirect consequential loss that may be borne by the Seller, following this decision.7.2 In the event of breach by one Party under these conditions or the order, the non-breaching Party may send a notification to the other by recorded delivery letter upon which, after a period of thirty (30) days without solving the problem, the non-breaching Party shall be entitled to terminate all the pending orders, without being liable for any compensation.8. MiscellaneousAll the provisions of these Terms and Conditions are for the benefit of the Seller itself, but also for its licensors, employees and agents. Each of them is entitled to assert and enforce those provisions against the Buyer.Any notices under these Terms and Conditions shall be given in writing. They shall be effective upon receipt by the other Party.The Seller may, from time to time, update these Terms and Conditions and the Buyer, is deemed to have accepted the latest version of these terms and conditions, provided they have been communicated to him in due time.9.Governing law and jurisdiction9.1 Any dispute arising out or linked to these Terms and Conditions or to any contract (orders) entered into in application of these Terms and Conditions shall be settled by the French Commercial Courts of Lyon, which shall have exclusive jurisdiction upon such issues.9.2 French law shall govern the relation between the Buyer and the Seller, in accordance with these Terms and conditions.
