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Between Scylla and Charybdis: Positioning European regions in the 21st century Signs and wonders Neil Riley Policy Advisor
Between Scylla and Charybdis: Positioning European regions in the 21st century
Signs and wonders
Neil RileyPolicy Advisor
Walking along the ridge – Getting the balance right in the development of health systems
Our Health Future: Welsh Public Health Strategic Framework: 2010 -
Estimated number of people with diabetes 2008 – 2003Based upon Welsh Health Survey 2008 and ONS population projections
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Estimated population
Diabetic population if prevelance
remains the same (4.5%) = 125,000
Diabetic population if prevelance
rises to 10% = 283,000
Diabetic population if prevelance
rises, as currently, 6% each year
= 536,000
A paucity of models: There is a lack of modelling data to support our aspirations
Diverse audiences: If we do quantification we have to remember different audiences
Policymakers
Health
professionals including
researchers
Citizens
Health
administrators
Automated intelligence: Large growth of interactive applications for policymakers/citizens
New approaches: We don’t have to be bound by tradition, use what works
• Community health profiles covering local authority areas in Wales.
• No numbers
• Visual reference to area
• Hook to get policymakers involved.
• Extensive follow up around the country
• Still used five years later.
There is a balance between Art and Science: We need aesthetic and scientific robustness
2,502 deaths
Circulatory diseases
10,971 Deaths
2,988deaths
5,188deaths
Cancers8,681 deaths
2,032deaths
Deaths from all causes32,066
Respiratory diseases
4,445 deaths
1,816 deaths
1,730deaths
1,730 deaths
Ischaemic heart disease
Cerebrovascular Disease
Digestive cancers
Lung cancers
Cervical, Prostate Cancers
1,078 deaths
BreastCancer
632 deaths
Leukaemia and other blood cancers629 deaths
Pneumonia COPD
Digestive diseases
All accidents820 deaths
Suicides269 deaths
External causes1,111 deaths
Make your message stand out
In a busy marketplace of ideas: make sure that your voice is heard
Conclusions
• Need to convince policy makers to undertake HIA (properly)• Need the tools to undertake quantification• Health need is not Health impact• Demonstrate how numbers can help decision – Health policy literacy• Presentation is crucial• Style• Language• Stand out
