1. Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd Take Hold of the Future

2. WhyallleadersareFuturists 3. ! ALLBIGTRENDSARERELATED ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 4. Most debates about future strategy are about timing and focus ! What if global recovery / Turkey economy / mobile payments / retail spending / bank regulation / inflation / demographics, the EU, Middle East and rise of Asian markets all change faster than expected? 5. !12 6. ClicktoeditMastertextstyles 14 7. ! Strategies often overtaken by events ! World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting 8. ! Agility requires Simplicity ! Small = Fast 9. WGP1980-2013(%,constantprices) 10. USGDP1980-2013 (%,constantprices) 11. !21 12. EUGDP1980-2013 (%,constantprices) 13. LatviaandEstonia2005-2013GDP% 14. ClicktoeditMastertextstyles 15. ClicktoeditMastertextstyles 16. ! 2% inflation target likely to be discarded 17. $2.3trillionUS+$85bnpermonth ! ! ! Expect INFLATION 18. $3.4trillion ! Reserves 19. VietnamGDP1985-2011 20. Digital Control 21. The future is about EMOTION 22. 36 23. 80%lostinseconds 24. 25. >40%WDPby2015 IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity 26. 300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 27. ! 1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years 28. Europe Dying ! 4 couples to produce single great-grand child ! 1 in 3 Bulgarians over 65 by 2050 Only 50% population working age Fastest rate of ageing in the world 29. 75%ofallUSandUKwealthownedby thoseover65-mostlywomen 30. Can we stop ageing ? 31. Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure and helps wrinkled skin. 32. Pigsteethgrowninsiderats Micegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum Grow New Teeth 33. Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells 34. Confidential HSV1causescoldsores.When engineeredasSeprehvir,itis harmlesstohealthy;ssue. ! Infect and kill cancer tumour cells No damage to healthy tissue Viruses to cure cancer ? 35. Harvard Bioscience Bioreactor Bone marrow stem cells Polymer scaffold 36. After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay 54 Monkeys on diet live longer 37. Slowornoageingisarealityinanimals Japanwomengain15minutesoflifeexpectancyeveryhour Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales ! No signs of getting old 38. lPeople like to belong lSense of identity lCommunity lFamily lPersonal advisor Relationship Retailing ! 39. !58 40. 95%EUbandwidthsoonvideo 41. 1trillionpagesamonth 21%ofLatviansuseFacebook 42. Would recommend you to a friend ? ! 43. "Perfection!,Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.! Telford UK, May 20, 2013 This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value. Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down. Paris April, 2013 NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick. 44. ! Scale - Innovation Speed Large enough for the future ? Eat or be Eaten, Strategic Mergers, Techno-Partnerships 45. Mega Chains 46. InmanyEUnaNons,upto70%of retailspendingisin70% online 12% smartphones - 44% of 15-24 year olds 26% mobile subscribers use smartphonesTele2 60. Over4000roadhauliersinEU 1.3bnhomedeliverede-com itemsinUKayear(+12%pa) 61. Italy:58%increasein aggregatorsalesof policiesinrst6 monthsof2013v2012 62. 56%allprivatemotorinsurancesales Growth1-2%pa-reachingsaturaNon 30%ofconsumersselectcheapestpolicy Further58%selectpolicyintopvecheapest ObjecNvemeasureofbrandvalue UKAggregatorsThreat 63. Maxima Latvija SIA and Rimi Latvia SIA dominated Latvian grocery retailing in 2013 ! LatviaWith the news of Latvia's successful eurozone bid, rising ratings and improving business environment, we are sure that we leave Latvia in the best shape it has been in years possibly ever. Still, 2014 is to bring some key moments which will have a signicant impact on Latvia's future. 64. Mobile MarkeNng 65. LocaNon MarkeNng isnext BIGTHING 66. 1500% growth car insurance black boxes ! Telematics Scale ! ! ! 67. 94 2mbusinessesuse SQUARE inUS 68. CUSTOMERCHOICE 200millionpaymentsglobally ! 69. ! Kenya-17mcustomers $9bnpa->33%GDP Tanzania9mpeople 35naNonlinksviaHomeSendHub 70. 97 1.7bnphone usersare unbanked 71. Free mobile devices calls / web / TV / games / pay Higher income model 201020132015 TelcoBanks 72. Internet of Things 73. 1.5m components in supply chain 74. 90% all global data generated in last 2 years BigData 75. 90%MicrosojR&D CLOUD 76. Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost 77. 5.5billioncyberalacks 42%increase/year ! >160Gbpsindenialofservice 1000majoralacks/hrinUK WorriesaboutUSPrism/securityservices 78. Home Work Online Offline Sales Entertain Phone Mobile Chat Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc ! UNIVERSAL VIEW of ONE CUSTOMER 79. Regulatory Swings ! eg Capital Adequacy / ROI ! Public pressure v Reality 80. $40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism 81. Oil >$100 a barrel accelerates innovation Even strong climate sceptics go green 82. US emissions of CO2 equivalent to a carpet of CO2 = 33cms thick each year over entire land mass 83. Source: Vostok (Antarctica) ice cores, World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA 350-393ppm in 30 years x ! ! x 420,000 Years - CO2 and Earth Temperature Dip equivalent to 0.5 mile of ice over some of northern hemisphere 15,000 years ago 84. Shale gas 33% US supplies 3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil produced than Saudi by 2020 ! 200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years 85. Boom Bust 86. 5coalplantsreplacewithgas=9000megawaGswind Coalpricesfall=morecoalburntinVietnamandChina 57coalplantsclosedinUSin2012 87. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power use QUEBECfromARIZONA MOSCOWfromSAHARA 88. SolarcellgeneraNonparity 89. Fallingsolarcellprices 90. 120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert 40% EU power = wind by 2050 Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ? 91. SmartPowerRegulaNon 10%AustralianpowergeneraNononlyusedfor72hoursayear Energypricescansoarfrom$50/Mwhourto$10,000/Mwhour 92. GermanyPowerSurplus ! InJune2013 ElectricitypricesbecamenegaNve -minusEU150/MWhr!! 93. Rapid growth HVDC Super Grids 500,000 S Korea jobs - $200bn Smart Grid Project ! ! ! ! China planning to power Moscow 94. Only sell what you believe in and would sell to your family and friends Theonlycorporatevalueworthhaving 95. TeamsintophalfofEngagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be protable 10 million surveyed by Gallup 96. Beyond Compliance ! Perfect compliance will keep bankers out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on those who justify past unethical behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant. 97. LessonfromNon-Prot FoundaNons ! Connectwithallthepassions peoplehaveandtheywillfollow youtotheendsoftheearth, promotewhatyoudowithpride, andmayevenbewillingtoworkfor youfornexttonothing 98. BuildingaBelerWorld 99. RESOURCES ! >500 videos of Keynotes http://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon ! ! Global Trends Website: http://www.globalchange.com !