A Blogging Empire

A Brief Strategic Analysis ofSix Apart

Steven SpadtMKTG 477

Professor Oliva

November 8, 2006

The Wharton SchoolUniversity of Pennsylvania

Blog ToolMacro Environment (Kotler Model) ‐ Figure 1

page 1

Demographics/ Economics

Market growth continues at torid pace [3]

Companies with multi-billion dollar market cap/valuations involved, with millions of installed users [3, 5]

MicroEnviron-

ment(Fig 2)

Marketing Intermediaries:Parent companies (especially companies

with dominant Internet business share like Google and Microsoft) leverage mind

share to promote blogging tools/services

Technical/Physical Env.

Political/Legal Env.

Globalization issues increasing as censorship in countries like China threatens to stifle global expansion [1, 2]

Social/Cultural Env.

As adoption moves from innovators and early adopters to early majority, there is a need to improve usability and lower entry barriers for less technical users [4]

Movement towards convergence of blogging/social networking/ photo sharing platforms and blogs, as users seek single online “journal” solutions [8]

“Fake” blogs created by companies to promote products (SPLOGS) are proliferating and lowering overall value of blogs [9]

Suppliers:Other than supporting technologies (underlying database and server technologies—hardware—and operating/infrastructure improvements—software), tool vendors/hosts areself-sufficient

Publics: As blogs gain readership, compete with traditional media for mind

share and “eyes”– Internet communities forming

around blogs and related support communities

[1, 8]

Competitors:Direct competition is most intense in the public blog segment [4], though indirect

competition may intensify as blogs converge with related social networking and online

community platforms [8]

Spadt

RSS and related aggregation technology improvements reduce value of blogs as content aggregations [6]

Privacy/permissions capabilities evolving to create continuum from public to private blogs [7]

[1] 2006. "Blogging Leader Six Apart and Russian Online Media Company SUP Partner Around LiveJournal" ENP Newswire, 19 October 2006; Accessed via Factiva on November 1, 2006.[2] 2006. "Users get access to Google's blogging site" Computerworld; 8/21/2006, Vol. 40 Issue 34, p18-18, 1/6p[3] 2006. "State of the Blogosphere" Technorati; August 2006. http://www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000436.html (accessed October 30, 2006).[4] 2006. Perez JC. "Six Apart preps blogging service for newbies" InfoWorld; 10/26/2006 http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/10/26/HNbloggingfornewbies_1.html (accessed November 2, 2006).[5] 2006. Market Cap Statistics http://www.google.com/finance?catid=66529330&sort=MKTCAP (accessed November 1, 2006).[6] 2006. "RSS is killing blogging" October 19, 2006. http://prweb.com/releases/2006/10/prweb452826.htm (accessed November 1, 2006).[7] 2006. Jana R. "The blog with the velvet rope" Business Week; 7/24/2006 Issue 3994, p8-8, 1/4p, 1c[8] 2006. Thomas O., Ryan O. "Blog wars: Six Apart vs. MySpace" CNNMoney.com; 10/26/2006 http://money.cnn.com/blogs/browser/2006/10/blog-wars-six-apart-vs-myspace.html (accessed November 1, 2006).[9] 2006. Espiner T. "Spim, splog on the rise" CNet News; July 7, 2006. CNet News; http://www.cnet.com.au/software/internet/0,239029524,240090745,00.htm (accessed November 1, 2006).

Blog ToolMicro Environment (Kotler Model) ‐ Figure 2

page 2

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Marketing Information System

TargetCustomers

ProductProduct portfolio of market leader is extensive [5]. Lead competitors focusing on public blog sector. Product differentiation occurring on two primary

axes [5]:(1) Ease of use/reduction of entry barriers

(2) Advanced features foradvanced users

Marketing Planning System

Marketing ControlSystem

Marketing Organization and Implementation System

PlaceLocation in Internet space = placement in highly trafficked sites. Offerings from top sites, e.g., Google’s Blogger and MSN’s Live Spaces, have advantage. Six Apart partnership with Yahoo attempt to offset competitive advantage [4, 5].

PricePrices range from $0 to several

hundreds/month for fully supported business-directed platforms. Indirect costs

can include third-party support, hardware support (if not hosted solution). Non-

financial costs include advertising exposure [1, 2].

PromotionBecause exit barriers are significant,

achieving trial is a key factor in winning sales. Promotion is key to achieving trial, and range from free use to giveaways/sweepstakes [3].

[1] 2006. MSN web site http://get.live.com/spaces/faq (accessed November 1, 2006).[2] 2006. Six Apart web site http://www.sixapart.com/typepad/pricing and http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/pricing.html (accessed November 1, 2006).[3] 2006. Six Apart VOX promotion site http://www.sixapart.com/vox/voxworldtour.html (accessed November 3, 2006).[4] 2006. "State of the Blogosphere" Technorati; August 2006. http://www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000436.html (accessed October 30,2006).[5] 2006. "Summary Reviews and Recommendations" Idealware; June 2006. http://www.idealware.org/blogging_software/2006/06/summary-reviews-and-recommendations.php (accessed October 21, 2006).

Blog Tool Five Forces (Porter Model) ‐ Figure 3

Supplier Power

Threat of New Entry

Moderate economy of scale (software ~ ∞; hardware ~ linear)Moderate degree of differentiation [1]High switching costs (intellectual investment/training; existing content in

hosted environment owned/operated by supplier) [4]

Buyer Power

Competitive Rivalry

page 3

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IMPLICATION:Blogging service/tool vendors, like all web software vendors derive great adv. from control of scalability and hosted platform (forward integration) and are capitalizing

IMPLICATION: Threat of substitution, particular as blogging converges with web “spaces,” outweighs all other risks

IMPLICATION: High switching costs for current bloggers, coupled with the current lead and functionality profiles (breadth/depth) of existing products = low threat

IMPLICATION: Other than competitiveness for mergers/acquisitions (H), rivalry is moderate

H

L

H

M

[1] 2006. "Summary Reviews and Recommendations" Idealware; June 2006. http://www.idealware.org/blogging_software/2006/06/summary-reviews-and-recommendations.php (accessed October 21, 2006).[2] 2006. "RSS is killing blogging" October 19, 2006. http://prweb.com/releases/2006/10/prweb452826.htm (accessed November 1, 2006).[3] 2006. Thomas O., Ryan O. "Blog wars: Six Apart vs. MySpace" CNNMoney.com; 10/26/2006 http://money.cnn.com/blogs/browser/2006/10/blog-wars-six-apart-vs-myspace.html (accessed November 1, 2006).[4] 2006. Berlind D. "TypePad down: A reminder of why open standards matter" ZDNet Blogs; http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/index.php?p=2295 (accessed November 4, 2006).[5] 2005. Bauer E. "Weblog Tools Market" Elise.com - http://www.elise.com/web/a/weblog_tools_market_update_february_2005.php (accessed October 20, 2006).[6] 2006. "State of the Blogosphere" Technorati; August 2006. http://www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000436.html (accessed October 30, 2006).

M

LowMediumHigh

FavorableNeutralUnfavorable

LMH

LM

# firms is relatively high, though shrinking via M&A [3, 5]Extremely high industry growth rate [6]Moderate degree of differentiation [1]Moderate exit barriers (low capital/tangibility, high

acquisition value in current environment)

M

LMM

Scalability (equivalent of volume in software/hw service business) is high

Forward integration is high - new features built from existing –growing/converging with related offerings [1, 3]

H

H

IMPLICATION:Initial buyer power is moderately high, but among existing users, user exit barriers (switching costs) are sufficiently high to shift power to suppliers

M

High switching costs (intellectual investment/ training; existing content in hosted environment owned/ operated by supplier) [4]

Broad selection w/ moderate differentiation [1]

Wide variance in cost options (incl. free) [1]

L

H

H

Threat of Substitution

Price:performance ratio of substitutes is moderate [3]Technology/R&D environmental shift (RSS, image sharing, etc.) leading to

convergence with other related web offerings (web “spaces”) [2, 3]Functional similarity (with enhancement) is easily achievable [2, 4]

M

H

H

Blog Tool Product Life Cycle ‐ Figure 4 Spadt

page 4

Rapid Growth:Establishing strong brand and distribution niche [3]

Market Development:Minimizing learning, finding/fixing defects, developing benefit awareness, achieving trial by early adopters [2]

Competitive Turbulence:Growing brand and loyalty [4]

Saturation:Defend brand against competition and improving product, promotions

PLC AssessmentAppears to be a classical PLC, poised to enter the phase of competitive turbulence

50,000,000

6,000,000

?

Jan05 Jul06Mar03

Mar

ket (

Publ

ic B

logs

) [1]

[1] 2006. "State of the Blogosphere" Technorati; August 2006. http://www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000436.html (accessed October 30, 2006).[2] 2006. Perez JC. "Six Apart preps blogging service for newbies" InfoWorld; 10/26/2006 http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/10/26/HNbloggingfornewbies_1.html (accessed November 2, 2006).[3] 2005. Scott DM. "TypePad Pro" EContent, 15252531, June 2005, Vol. 28, Issue 6[4] 2006. "Blogging Leader Six Apart and Russian Online Media Company SUP Partner Around LiveJournal" ENP Newswire, 19 October 2006; via Factiva

Stra

tegi

c A

ppro

ach

A Note Regarding Market SizingSizing of the blogging market is typically done by quantifying/tracking blog creation, though blog “activity” is at least as significant a factor in measuring adoption and the PLC. With respect to the market for blog tools/services, however, the extent to which new blogs are “active” (involve frequent new content/posts) is less important than new blog creation since it is initial creation of the blog that is the primary purchase point for tools/services.

Six Apart BCG Matrix Evolution ‐ Figure 5

Circle sizeis proportionate to:Market Share [1]

page 5

CASH COW

STAR

DOG

QUESTION

Relative Market Share [1]

Mar

ket G

row

th R

ate

(%) [

1, 2

]

High Low

Low

High

-50%

250%

100%

1.0 0.15.0

230%

5.3

112%Trending:

LiveJournal:Shifts from Dog to Question Mark, losing share, but doubling in market growth rate

Typepad:Shifts from borderline Dog/Question Mark to “deep” Question Mark

MovableType:Remains deep within the Dogs, losing even more share

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0.500.51

Feb 05

Aug 04

0.77 0.57

Typepad

Typepad

Live-Journal140%

72%

MovableType10%

20% MovableType

0.23

Live-Journal

[1] 2005. Bauer E. "Weblog Tools Market" Elise.com - http://www.elise.com/web/a/weblog_tools_market_update_february_2005.php (accessed October 20, 2006).[2] 2006. "Summary Reviews and Recommendations" Idealware; June 2006. http://www.idealware.org/blogging_software/2006/06/summary-reviews-and-recommendations.php (accessed October 21, 2006).

NOTE:  See Appendix for calculations.

Six Apart Quantitative SWOT Analysis ‐ Figure 6

Strengths Weaknesses

Opportunities Threats

Overall SWOT Assessment

1. 2006. "Summary Reviews and Recommendations" Idealware; June 2006. http://www.idealware.org/blogging_software/2006/06/summary-reviews-and-recommendations.php (accessed October 21, 2006).

2. 2006. Thomas O., Ryan O. "Blog wars: Six Apart vs. MySpace" CNNMoney.com; 10/26/2006 http://money.cnn.com/blogs/browser/2006/10/blog-wars-six-apart-vs-myspace.html (accessed November 1, 2006).

3. 2006. Espiner T. "Spim, splog on the rise" CNetNews; July 7, 2006. CNet News; http://www.cnet.com.au/software/internet/0,239029524,240090745,00.htm (accessed November 1, 2006).

4. 2006. Jana R. "The blog with the velvet rope" Business Week; 7/24/2006 Issue 3994, p8-8, 1/4p, 1c

5. 2006. McDougall P. "Blog Software that stands apart" InformationWeek; 4/3/2006 Issue 1083, p50-52, 2p, 1c , EBSCOhost (accessed November 2, 2006). Persistent link: http://proxy.library.upenn.edu:11928/login.aspx?direct=true&db=buh&AN=20511705&site=ehost-live

6. 2006. Market Cap Statistics http://www.google.com/finance?catid=66529330&sort=MKTCAP (accessed November 1, 2006).

7. 2006. Om Malik is saying SixApart is landing a $12m series C. http://rodrigo.typepad.com/english/2006/02/om_malik_is_say.html (accessed November 3, 2006).

8. 2005. Bauer E. "Weblog Tools Market" Elise.com http://www.elise.com/web/a/weblog_tools_market_update_february_2005.php (accessed October 20, 2006).

9. 2006. "RSS is killing blogging" October 19, 2006. http://prweb.com/releases/2006/10/prweb452826.htm (accessed November 1, 2006).

10. 2006. "State of the Blogosphere" Technorati; August 2006. http://www.sifry.com/alerts/archives/000436.html (accessed October 30, 2006).

0.2 x 2 = 0.4

0.1 x 1 = 0.1

0.3 x 3 = 0.9

0.4 x 2 = 0.8

Strengths = + 2.2

Only vendor offering portfolio to blanket market (cover all segments from casual user to business/ professional blogs [1]

Enables complete control of privacy/ permissions to further customize delivery [4]

Several differentiating options for total novices/crucial non-technical early-adopters [1]

Market share (installed base) lead [8]

0.4 x -1 = -0.4

0.6 x -3 = -1.8

Major competitors tied closely to large “installed bases” (Google, MSN), though recent partnership with Yahoo offsets, slightly [5]

Market capitalization/valuation (resources) orders of magnitude below competitors [6, 7]

0.5 x 2 = 1.0

0.5 x 3 = 1.5

Technology environmental shifts: convergence of blogging with photo sharing and online community, emergence of RSS [2]

Blog adoption continues at torid pace [10]

0.5 x -2 = -1.0

0.3 x -2 = -0.6

0.2 x -1 = -0.2

MySpace, Flickr, other established, well-financed vendors of related products converging/moving into blog space [2]

“Splogs” (SPAM blogs) threaten to reduce value/credibility of blogs and acceptance as credible communication mechanism [3]

Technology environmental shifts that threaten viability of blog platforms, e.g., RSS [9]

Weaknesses = - 2.2

Opportunities = + 2.5 Threats = - 1.8

Strengths to Weaknesses = 0 (neutral)Opportunities to Threats = + 0.7OVERALL SWOT = + 0.7 (slightly favorable)

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page 6

NOTE: Weights range from 0 to 1 and sum to 1. Quality assessments range from -3 to 3. See right column for references.

Blog Tool Benchmarking ‐ Figure 7

page 7

*The Windows/MSN Live Spaces product is considered by many to be less than a “true” blog service, but is included here since, as uncovered with the Porter analysis (see Figure 3), the weight of the Microsoft brand presents a significant threat and the boundaries between “blog” and web communication “homes” continues to blur [7].**Via MSN subscription.[9]†Based on estimates from venture capitalists and speculation regarding recent funding [8].‡Averaged across portfolio of products: TypePad average = $90; MovableType = ; LiveJournal and VOX = free. [10]

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Advantage

This includes share of all products in the portfolio competing for space in the blogging tool/host market [1]

41% Total Market Share (%)

Price (to end user) ($)Price ($) realized by end user [9, 10]

Estimated Overall Corporate Valuation (in $Bil)This is an estimated market valuation of the parent corporations (Microsoft, Six Apart, and Google, resp.) [7]

[1] 2005. Bauer E. "Weblog Tools Market" Elise.com - http://www.elise.com/web/a/weblog_tools_market_update_february_2005.php (accessed October 20, 2006).[2] 2006. "Users get access to Google's blogging site" Computerworld; 8/21/2006, Vol. 40 Issue 34, p18-18, 1/6p[3] 2006. Jana R. "The blog with the velvet rope" Business Week; 7/24/2006 Issue 3994, p8-8, 1/4p, 1c[4] 2006. Gohring N. "Six Apart rolls out corporate blogging tool" Network World; 7/17/2006, Vol. 23 Issue 27, p20-20, 1/7p[5] 2005. Scott DM. "TypePad Pro" EContent, 15252531, June 2005, Vol. 28, Issue 6[6] 2006. Perez JC. "Six Apart preps blogging service for newbies" InfoWorld; 10/26/2006 http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/10/26/HNbloggingfornewbies_1.html (accessed November 2, 2006).[7] 2006. Market Cap Statistics http://www.google.com/finance?catid=66529330&sort=MKTCAP (accessed November 1, 2006).[8] 2006. Om Malik is saying SixApart is landing a $12m series C. http://rodrigo.typepad.com/english/2006/02/om_malik_is_say.html (accessed November 3, 2006).[9] 2006. MSN web site http://get.live.com/spaces/faq (accessed November 1, 2006).[10] 2006. Six Apart web site http://www.sixapart.com/typepad/pricing and http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/pricing.html (accessed November 1, 2006).

35%

4 2 Portfolio Breadth (#segments served)Segments considered: business internal (intranet deployment), business external (mktg), public amateur, and public professional [2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

3%

2

Live Spaces*283 1430.1†

free

Though viable in one segment (professional bloggers), WordPresswas excluded here because its overall market share is below 3%.

$63‡$0(some

connection to MSN)

3

3

3 3

3 2

2

The numbered squares are rankings, but are unweighted and not proportionate to the differences, so no summarization is performed (see Figure 8 for quantitative SWOT assessment).

2

1

1

1

1

Blog Tool Competitive Analysis ‐ Figure 8

page 8

Technology Shifts

Cultural Shifts

Demographics Economics

+3

-3

0

Six Apart (product portfolio)

Blogger (Google)

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MSN LiveSpaces (Microsoft)

DemographicsMean of the following on a -3 to +3 scale(Six Apart, Blogger, LiveSpaces):

Portfolio breadth (+2, 0, -1) [3, 4]

Demographics Mean = (+2, 0 -1)

[1] 2005. Bauer E. "Weblog Tools Market" Elise.com - http://www.elise.com/web/a/weblog_tools_market_update_february_2005.php (accessed October 20, 2006).[2] 2006. "Users get access to Google's blogging site" Computerworld; 8/21/2006, Vol. 40 Issue 34, p18-18, 1/6p[3] 2006. Gohring N. "Six Apart rolls out corporate blogging tool" Network World; 7/17/2006, Vol. 23 Issue 27, p20-20, 1/7p[4] 2006. Perez JC. "Six Apart preps blogging service for newbies" InfoWorld; http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/10/26/HNbloggingfornewbies_1.html (accessed 11/2/2006)[5] 2006. Market Cap Statistics http://www.google.com/finance?catid=66529330&sort=MKTCAP (accessed November 1, 2006).[6] 2006. Om Malik is saying SixApart is landing a $12m series C. http://rodrigo.typepad.com/english/2006/02/om_malik_is_say.html (accessed November 3, 2006).[7] 2006. Six Apart web site http://www.sixapart.com/typepad/pricing and http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/pricing.html (accessed November 1, 2006).[8] 2006. "RSS is killing blogging" October 19, 2006. http://prweb.com/releases/2006/10/prweb452826.htm (accessed November 1, 2006).[9] 2006. Jana R. "The blog with the velvet rope" Business Week; 7/24/2006 Issue 3994, p8-8, 1/4p, 1c[10] 2006. Thomas O., Ryan O. "Blog wars: Six Apart vs. MySpace" CNNMoney.com; 10/26/2006 http://money.cnn.com/blogs/browser/2006/10/blog-wars-six-apart-vs-myspace.html (accessed November 1, 2006).[11] 2006. Espiner T. "Spim, splog on the rise" July 7, 2006. CNet News; http://www.cnet.com.au/software/internet/0,239029524,240090745,00.htm (accessed Nov 1, 2006).

NOTE: Axes selected and valuations given are based on Kotler analysis (see Figures 2 and 3 ), Five Forces analysis (see Figure 3), and SWOT analysis (see Figure 6)

Cultural ShiftsMean of the following on a -3 to +3 scale(Six Apart, Blogger, LiveSpaces):

Readiness for convergence of blogging/social networking/photo sharing [10] (+1, -1, +3)

Effect/impact of SPLOGS [11](-1, -2, 0)

Cultural Shifts Mean = (0, -1.5, +1.5)

Technology ShiftsMean of the following on a -3 to +3 scale(Six Apart, Blogger, LiveSpaces):

Effect of RSS/aggregation technology improvements [8] (0, -1, +1)

Privacy/permissions capabilities [9](+3, -1, +1)

Usability for less technical users [4](+3, -1, +1)

Technology Shifts Mean = (+2, -1, +1)

EconomicsMean of the following on a -3 to +3 scale(Six Apart, Blogger, LiveSpaces):

Market share [1] (+3, +2, -1)Market capitalization/valuation [5, 6]

(0, +2, +3)Price attractiveness [7]

(0, +2, +1)

Economics Mean = (+1, +2, +1)

-3

+3

0

0

0

+3

+3

Six Apart SummaryBlogging is hot and continues to get hotter. The pace of new adoption is through the roof, with the creation of new blogs (adoption) measured in seconds, rather than minutes or hours. Globally, blogs are taking on an increasingly important role in communications between and among online communities. The range of uses spans from internal corporate communications to open, public forums forindividual expression of ideas and opinion. At some point, adoption patterns must shift from early majority to a more stable incline as the technologies and techniques become mainstream, but today, the product life cycle appears to be enjoying an extended stay in the early growth phase.

Six Apart is currently the blogging tools and services market leader. While no one product in their portfolio has a market share on par with Blogger, their primary rival, the sum total puts them in the top spot. Six Apart is now working to capitalize on the diversity of its portfolio to tune each product for its target segment, while fending off the “big boys” who boast market capitalizations several orders of magnitude greater than their own. BCG analysis indicates that the MovableType product line is the riskiest, while the TypePad and LiveJournal products are climbing out of dog slots into question marks—moving in the right direction, but they still need to eat away at Blogger’s share to earn star status.

Environmental shifts within the blogging market appear destined to challenge Six Apart’s dominance. Convergence is the name of the game, now, as blogs morph from purely online journals to rich online “homes” complete with photo sets, videos, and communications features. Threat of substitution, in the form of such offerings as MySpace, YouTube (now Google’s), and other related online community “spaces” are poised to challenge the more traditional blog products offered by Six Apart. Staying on top will require bold innovations to their portfolio, such as the newly released VOX product, designed to be Six Apart’s answer to these converged applications.

Six Apart owns a unique position in the market, as the only vendor of blogging tools and services to charge the end-users directly. To carve such a share despite competing with vendors offering free products, Six Apart creates value by targeting offerings specifically to their selected segments and optimizing each product appropriately. The effect of this key strength is augmented by high exit barriers. Once users (particularly novice/non-technical users) adopt a particular platform, the challenges to switching are significant.

The continued vitality of the blog movement is ultimately dependent upon readership—society’s acceptance of blogs as viable information centers. RSS and related content aggregation technologies, along with the exploitation of the blog space by overzealous marketeers (in the form of so-called “SPLOGS”) threaten to limit the level of acceptance and consequent value of blogs from a societal perspective.

NOTE:  See Appendix for calculations. page 10

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Appendix A BCG Calculations

page 11

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[all from http://www.elise.com/web/a/weblog_tools_market_update_february_2005.php] Feb-05 Feb-05

Relative Share (each/Blogger) Aug-04

(calculated below)

Relative Share (each/Blogger)

LiveJournal 20% 140% 0.57 23% 72% 0.77

Typepad 18% 230% 0.51 15% 112% 0.50

MovableType 3% 20% 0.09 7% 10% 0.23

VOX (new) 0% 0% 0% 0%

Biggest Rival (Blogger) 35% 260% 30% 124%

NOTE: Blogger has been identified as the lead rival to each of the products in the Six Apart portfolio.

Portfolio Circle Size (05) pi-r2 r d

LiveJournal 20% 0.252313359 50.46267175

Typepad 18% 0.239365469 47.87309387

MovableType 3% 0.097720544 19.54410873

VOX (new) 0% 0 0

Biggest Rival (Blogger) 35% 0.3337792 66.75583997

Portfolio Circle Size (04) pi-r2 r d

LiveJournal 23% 0.270575933 54.11518665

Typepad 15% 0.218509778 43.70195568

MovableType 7% 0.149270596 29.85411922

VOX (new) 0% 0 0

Biggest Rival (Blogger) 30% 0.309019492 61.80389843

Change in Share Avg (double) Normalized Growth Rate

LiveJournal -3% 70% 72%

Typepad 3% 115% 112%

MovableType -4% 10% 10%

VOX (new) 0% 0% 0%

Biggest Rival (Blogger) 5% 130% 124%