SPATIAL SMALL AREA ESTIMATION FOR DETERMINATION OF UNDERDEVELOPED VILLAGES

IN THE PROVINCE OF YOGYAKARTA (DIY) IN 2011

Presented in

JIEB Best Paper Award 2012Cakra Kusuma Hotel Yogyakarta

November 24, 2012

Lilis Nurul HusnaSarpono

Background (1)

Poverty

pockets (areas) of poverty

poor households

poverty

alleviation

program

Background (2)

No districts classified as underdeveloped region(KPDT, 2012)

+

the poverty rate is the highest compared with other provinces in Java and Bali(BPS, 2012)

-

DIY 2011

DIY DKIBALI

BANTEN

JAW

A BARAT

JAW

A TIMUR

JAW

A TENGAH0

5

10

15

20 16.08

3.75 4.26.35

10.6514.23

15.76

Pove

rty

Rate

(%)

Poverty rate in the provinces in Java and Bali islands

Source: BPS

OBJECTIVE

Determining the underdeveloped villages

Basic Concept(1)What is poverty?

“Poverty is hunger. Poverty is lack of shelter. Poverty is being sickand not being able to go to school and not knowing to know how to read. Poverty is not having job, is fear for the future, living one day at a time. Poverty is losing a child to illness bring about by unclean water. Povety is powerlessness, lack of representation and freedom” (World Bank, 2000)

“the poor are people who have an average expenditure per capita per month under a line called the Line Poverty (GK)” (BPS, 2008)

Underdeveloped villages are villages whose condition is relatively worse from other villages (BPS, 2005).

What is underdeveloped villages??

Basic Concept (2)

the main indicator: expenditure

Basic Concept (3)

Importance of determining the underdeveloped villages

Determining underdeveloped villages

Detecting pockets of poverty

Reducing poverty rate

Basic Concept (4)

The factors suspected to be the cause of development of a village (BPS, 2005):

1. the natural factors/environmental, 2. institutional factors, 3. factors of facilities/infrastructure and access, and 4. the socio-economic factors.

Methodology (1)

National Economic and Social Survey

(Susenas)

the average per capita expenditure for

district level

How to get expenditure for

Village level ?

Methodology (2)

SMALL AREA ESTIMATION (World Bank, 2000)

Survey

Susenas 2011

Census

Podes 2011

GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GWR)

(adaptive spatial kernel bandwidth)

Methodology (3)Why use GWR?

Produce local parameter good for small area estimation

Including spatial aspect

Tobler’s First Law of Geography (1979) stated that, "everything is related toeverything else, but near things are more related than distant things”

Glasmeier (2002) states that poverty is essentially a problem of spatial (Brandon, 2006)

Methodology (4)

Dependent Variabel

• The average per capita household expenditure

Independent VariablesNature factor/environment

X1 Population densityInstitutional factor

X2 Government statusFactors of facilities/infrastructure and access

X3 Distance village office with the office of regentX4 number of education facilities per 100 populationX5 Number of medical facilities per 10 population

X6 Number of medical workers per 100 population

X7 Wartel existence

X8 Number of minimarket

Socio-economic FactorsX9 Precentage of family farmhouse

X10 Main income most residents

X11 Percentage of families who subscribe electric

X12 Precentage of families who live along the river

X13 Source of water used for drinking/cooking

X14 Existence of severe malnutritions

X15 Main fuel used most of the population

RESULT (1)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

Indonesia

DIY

Year

Pov

erty

Rat

e (%

)

Poverty Rate of DIY and Indonesia

RESULT (2)

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Kulon ProgoBantulGunung KidulSlemanKota YogyakartaProvinsi DIY

Year

Pove

rty

Rate

(%

)

Poverty Rate of DIY and Its districts

RESULT (3)

Global Moran I

Expenditure effected by

spatial aspect

No Criteria Value1 Global Moran's I 0,81132 E[I] -0,00233 p-value 0,001*)

4 Standart Deviation 0,02775 Mean -0,0036

RESULT (4)No Variable Min Median Max OLS1 X0 -7,25E+05 -4,55E+05 2,35E+06 -5,55E+05

2 X1 -1,51E+01 2,26E+00 2,53E+01 5,66E+003 X2 1,21E+05 3,44E+05 4,82E+05 3,08E+05

4 X3 -5,62E+04 -3,86E+03 2,53E+02 -2,92E+035 X4 -8,44E+05 -9,60E+04 1,33E+06 -4,76E+056 X5 -2,62E+05 -7,08E+04 3,00E+04 -2,04E+047 X6 -1,68E+06 -5,82E+04 3,07E+05 -1,28E+048 X7 -7,44E+04 -8,79E+03 1,36E+05 -4,10E+049 X8 7,66E+03 1,86E+04 2,96E+04 1,83E+04

10 X9 -5,08E+03 1,63E+03 2,92E+03 1,00E+0311 X10 -6,21E+04 1,52E+05 2,26E+05 1,68E+0512 X11 2,50E+03 3,45E+03 4,72E+03 3,76E+0313 X12 -1,08E+04 -1,92E+03 7,73E+03 -6,85E+0314 X13 -9,02E+04 -1,51E+04 6,63E+04 5,93E+0315 X14 -1,54E+05 -3,52E+03 1,33E+05 2,73E+0416 X15 -7,06E+05 1,24E+05 1,94E+05 1,35E+05

GWR Coefficient

RESULT (5)

Source of Variation SS Df MS F-stat P-value

OLS Residuals 1.39E+13 16

GWR Improvement 6.69E+12 65.086 1.03E+11

GWR Residuals 7.18E+12 157.914 4.54E+10 2.2633 1.44E-08

ANOVA

No. Criteria GWR OLS1 AIC 6495,562* 6599,752

2 R2 0,744872* 0,5751

3 204200,9* 231327,7

4 SSR 7,17E+12* 1,19E+13

* = best model

GWR VS OLS

No. District Sub-District Village1 Kulon Progo Temon Temon Kulon2 Kulon Progo Kalibawang Banjarharjo3 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Kebonharjo4 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Purwoharjo5 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Sidoharjo6 Kulon Progo Samigaluh Ngargosari7 Gunung Kidul Tanjungsari Kemadang8 Gunung Kidul Girisubo Tileng9 Gunung Kidul Girisubo Jerukwudel

10 Gunung Kidul Wonosari Wunung11 Gunung Kidul Playen Ngleri12 Gunung Kidul Gemdamg Sari Mertelu13 Gunung Kidul Nglipar Pilangrejo

From 438 villages in DIY there are 13 villages belonging to the underdeveloped villages.

RESULT (6)

List of Underdeveloped Villages

Characteristics of underdeveloped villages

RESULT (7)

LISA CLUSTERING MAP

A. Cluster

1. Nature factor/environment 2. Institutional factor

RESULT (8)

B. Villages Potensial

3. Factors of facilities/infrastructure and access

RESULT (9)

4. Socio-economic Factors

RESULT (10)

Conclusions and Recommendations

Although in Medium Term Development Plan (RPJM) 2010-2014 no district in DIY is classified as underdeveloped district, but in the smaller scope, there are 13 villages was still classified as underdeveloped village. They can be a reference in determining the pro-poor development priorities and deliver direct assistance programs, such as fuel subsidies.

Most of underdeveloped villages are lack in number of population, telecommunication facilities, minimarket, and medical worker. Most of society in underdeveloped villages are farmers. They use firewood to cook. They also get water to drink and cook from ground, river, or rain. These aspects have to get serious attention from the government.