This issue of the Satellite Applications Catapult’s quarterly Small Satellite Market Intelligence report provides an update of the small satellites launched in Q2 2020 (1st April to 30th June 2020). This edition also includes a short article on the strong competition in, and impact of, upcoming constellations.
Q2
2020
SMALL SATELLITE MARKET INTELLIGENCEREPORT
02SMALL SATELLITES LAUNCHED IN Q2 2020
The number of satellites launched this quarter is largely thanks to SpaceX’s commitment and capability to launch throughout COVID-19, for their own Starlink satellites and government customers. The Starlink satellites have accounted for 80% of all small satellites and 74% of all satellites launched this quarter, showing off the benefits of its in house supply chain.
The proof of concept flight of Arianespace’s Small Spacecraft Mission Service which would have launched 53 satellite from 23 customers, including the Satellite Applications Catapult’s second In-Orbit Demonstration mission, IOD-5 TARS, on a Vega rocket was sadly delayed from March and then from June to August.
OVERVIEW
196 small satellites were launched this quarter to bring the total for the first half of the year above any previous year and putting us on target for over 1000 satellites launched this year. However, like the previous quarter, this figure is not completely indicative of the success of space sector during the COVID-19 pandemic, as 178 of this quarter’s satellites were Starlink satellites. The impact of COVID-19 showed itself, with quite a quiet quarter for small satellites. Aside from SpaceX, 18 small satellites were launched, of which only 5 were commercial, from Planet and Head Aerospace. Outside of the realm of small satellites there was big progress made in manned spaceflight with the first private manned mission to the ISS and China launching a prototype (unmanned) crewed spacecraft this quarter.
Virgin Orbit, unfortunately, were unsuccessful in their first orbital launch attempt from the Mojave Desert, yet they did succeed to be the first to ignite a liquid fuel air-launched orbital rocket. SpaceX also failed their first three Falcon 1 launches so this is not uncommon.
03APPLICATIONS
Applications are defined by the primary objective of the mission as categorised below:
• Communications: the objective of the mission is to transmit or receive signals to/from a user terminal or gateway;• Technology/ Scientific: the objective of the mission is to gather knowledge to better understand physical
phenomena or to test the functionality of the payload or equipment;• Earth observation/ Remote sensing: the objective of the mission is to provide imagery or data relating to the
Earth or its atmosphere.
Small Satellites Launched: by Application
The bulk of satellites again have been the communications satellites of Starlink who are the first company to the mega constellation scene.
Planet launched 3 more SkySats – offering an improved 50cm resolution – to increase their SkySat constellation to 18; they are expecting to launch another 3 SkySats as well as 26 SuperDoves this summer. The 7 total Earth Observation/remote sensing satellites left were rounded off with two from the Chinese Head Aerospace AIS-monitoring satellites, a Chinese Government Oceanography satellite and an Iranian military satellite.
Xingyun Satellite Co – a CASIC Chinese state-owned subsidiary – launched the first two satellites to carry out demonstrations on initial pilot applications of a planned LEO IoT constellation.
Finally, there were also 4 technology demonstrations/scientific missions, 2 Chinese government communications satellites, and 3 unknown – presumed surveillance – US NRO satellites launched.
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Satelliteclassification Satellitesubclassification Associated wet mass range
Small Satellite < 500 kg Mini-satellite 100 kg - 500 kg Micro-satellite 10 kg – 100 kg Nano-satellite 1 kg – 10 kg Pico-satellite 0.1 kg – 1 kg
SIZE AND MASS
The Starlink satellites have changed the distribution of small satellite sizes to favour the larger mini-satellites and, aside from SpaceX, there were very few CubeSats launched this quarter, a category usually favoured by academic and commercial organisations. This is not a trend that is expected to continue as the majority of upcoming constellations are CubeSats, fitting into the historically more popular nano-satellite category.
Small Satellites Launched: by Size Catagory
05ORGANISATION
Although the number of Starlink satellites has dramatically changed the ratio of organisations involved this year – it is still demonstrative of the new space shift towards the commercial sector and the effect constellations have on the sector. Only three commercial companies launched small satellites this quarter, with Planet and Head Aerospace being the other two.
Government organisations made up the highest proportion of non-SpaceX small satellites being launched, largely due to their capability to continue during the pandemic. This was made up of 5 Chinese, 4 US and single Australian and Iranian satellites. Rocket Labs showed its partnership with the US government with its first launch since its postponed activity in March containing three US NRO technology demonstration satellites as well as a Royal Australian Air Force AIS-monitoring pathfinder mission.
Only two satellites came from two academic organisations: Zhejiang University and Boston University Centre for Physics. The Boston University’s ANDESITE satellite deployed eight free-flying sub-satellites to make measurements of Earth’s magnetic field.
Small Satellites Launched: by Launch Organisation
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This quarter there were 12 launches (including one failure) that involved small satellites; five were from the US, five from China, Iran’s Qased, and the maiden flight for the small launch vehicles. The Launch Orbits are now numbered by launches rather than by satellites, they show an even split between uncategorised orbits and sun-synchronous.
Launch Vehicles: Number of Launches and Satellites Launched
LAUNCH
Note: Launch failure includes orbit failures whereby the satellites significantly missed their intended orbit to the detriment of the mission.
The one launch failure was with Virgin Orbit and their LauncherOne rocket, although they did get the accolade of becoming first team to ignite an air-launch liquid fuel orbital class rocket! Virgin Orbit’s next attempt is scheduled for August, and it has also recently agreed to establish a spaceport in Japan and Guam, and its subsidiary VOX space was awarded a $35 million US Space Force contract.
Before Rocket Lab postponed its operations in March, it successfully completed its first mid-air recovery test as part of its plans for a reusable launch vehicle. The test involved dropping, from a helicopter, an Electron first stage dummy which subsequently deployed a parachute, and then was caught by a second helicopter. Watch here.
Launch Orbits
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Small satellite constellations have been a hot topic since Planet and Spire started launching their CubeSat constellations. Since then it has just been a waiting game before the impending boom of the small satellite industry to take off. Although the term New Space was coined in the early 2010s, strong continued investment in the commercial space sector started in 2014. Yet, the real impact of this investment is only truly coming into fruition now and there is a boom in private launch vehicles and satellite constellations launching over the coming years. The next few years is what the progress of the space industry over the past ten years has been waiting for, and it will drastically change the landscape of the space sector and test the many companies that have been waiting for this moment.
We have been hearing of upcoming constellations over the past few years and there have been many commercial organisations that have already started their endeavours – 60 companies launched the first satellite/prototype of their constellation between 2017 and 2019 – but the majority of these have only been initially pathfinder/demonstration missions with a full service to come down the line. These companies will be rolling out their constellations, launching 1000s of satellites yearly, and offering a highly competitive landscape across all applications.
Organisations have been pouring money and focus into building up our space infrastructure, but how much have we thought about what happens when we have built all this infrastructure?
Over the next few years there will be a new space race, although this time it will not be with governments but between a highly competitive industry of space sector start-ups. This article aims to explore this competition within the space sector and what this may mean for the industry as a whole.
COMPETITIVE CONSTELLATIONS
CONSTELLATIONSNumbers of Commercial Constellations Starting
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1 https://www.spacecapital.com/publications/the-gps-playbook-report
The impending boom of new space can be clearly shown in the above chart. Although there has been much talk about new space and the growing space sector over the past decade, the momentum has just been building and we have now reached an inflexion point.
Currently there are over 60 companies who, after launching initial demonstration satellites, are rolling out, or waiting to roll out, their constellations of small satellites. The vast majority came from the previous two years, and 26 more companies were expected to launch initial satellites this year. The impact of COVID-19 will play its part in delaying these, and this will have an effect on the whole space sector.
When these 100s of proposed constellations launch – what happens next? Will new companies in 2025 be able to make their way into then traditional services of connectivity, imagery, and SAR? The space ecosystem cannot maintain this level of activity and it is difficult to tell what will happen after the initial rise in operating constellations. The future of constellations after this initial peak over the next few years is nebulous. Previous endeavours such as GPS and original LEO connectivity constellations can provide a basis of our understanding, but the environment has changed significantly since then. One of the earliest widespread satellite technologies is GNSS, which over the decades since its first launch with GPS in 1978 – operable in 1993 - has gone through multiple stages of creating impact, with innovation of this 40 year old technology still thriving today with applications such as Uber and Pokémon Go relying on it.1
We will soon have daily imagery of the planet not just from Planet, but a whole host of companies in a whole host of spectrums. Ubiquitous connectivity will not be just provided by the expensive traditional satellites, but by a combination of IoT, terrestrial 5G and communications satellites. Other applications such as SAR and RF Monitoring will also be the competing to deliver daily services at lower costs.
9THE NUMBERS GAME
2 https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/3 https://spacenews.com/geo-satellite-orders-continued-to-underwhelm-in-2018/4 https://www.airbus.com/space/telecommunications-satellites/onesat.html
Numbers of Satellites from Constellations
All these satellite constellations mean there will be 1000s of satellites being launched every year over the next few years.
Mega constellations will be the biggest representation as they plan to send 1000s of satellites up for just their initial service. The above chart takes account of 64 constellations that started between 2016 and 2019 of which only 10 of these were constellations above 200 satellites, but they account for 71% of all the satellites that will be launched. The total number launched from these constellations is over 9000, and these are only the ones that have already launched a satellite.
We have only taken account of the number of Starlink satellites needed to create their initial near-global service, 1584, to not distort the figures, however SpaceX have plans to deploy 12,000 satellites, with filings in place for a possible extension up to 42,000. They have a three phased roll out and plan to operate satellites at multiple altitudes and bands.2
Outside of small satellites, there has been uncertainty in the geostationary satellite markets with record lows of only 5 and 7 geostationary satellites ordered in 2018 and 2017, respectively.3
2019 was a bounce back year with 17 satellites ordered, however this does not necessarily indicate recovery and showed some diversity to the usual orders of Astranis’ small GEO satellites and Airbus’ small reprogrammable satellite platform OneSat. 4
This shows further dominance in the current LEO constellation market place.
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This will put strain on new small-lift launch vehicles to be operable early enough to meet this market and it will also force the larger launch vehicles to continue adjust. There are 100s5 of small launch vehicles (payloads <1000kg to LEO) vying to get first dibs on this market, and there is a market, but it is a question of how many small launch vehicles does this market need – especially with the likes of Rocket Lab aiming for weekly cadences. SpaceX and their SmallSat rideshare program, among other companies, also aim to steal a good share of this market, and it is already proving a popular service as they have economy of scale on their side. An ISRO PSLV XL still holds the record for launching 104 satellites into SSO in 2017. If other traditional launch vehicles adopt this small satellite focus – such as Arianespace’s Small Spacecraft Mission Service (SSMS) – they could reduce the small launch vehiclemarket further, especially with help from in space transportation.
In Space Transportation
This is good news for orbital deployment vehicles such as Momentus, D-Orbit and Atomos as companies eye up precise orbits and fast dispersion of satellites. No launcher can provide the perfect orbit for all small satellites on board and these services allow satellite operators to purchase slots on cheaper, heavier launch vehicles, and then use in space transportation services to reach their final destination. Momentus has shown this with their partnership with SpaceX and numerous contracts that followed suit this year6 and D-Orbit with their ION CubeSat constellation planned for the delayed Vega SSMS launch this August. They will be competing closely with small-lift launch vehicles.
Space Debris
This does create concerns around space debris as these are only the companies that have started launching and they account for 9193 satellites (let alone additional satellites by mega constellations as they expand their service). This will create a lot of traffic in space and Space Situational Awareness and Active Debris Removal are two initiatives to solve this. Active Debris Removal will be necessary to free up orbital slots of failed satellites or when renovating constellations – however it is not feasible for one satellite to go up and deorbit one satellite, there needs to be a continued orbital presence or a spacecraft capable of deorbiting multiple satellites. LeoLabs recently released a Collision Avoidance service trying to predict the required capability of satellites to manoeuvre their way through this imminent minefield.
5 https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4118&context=smallsat6 https://momentus.space/blog/
THE IMPACT
The impact of all these constellations going up is great for the space sector, and it provides positive growth across the whole of the industry. Investment throughout the space sector is continuing to rise, as shown on page 7, and space infrastructure is a good example of this: in 2018 $3.25B and in 2019 $5.4B was invested in space infrastructure, and since 2018 $10.45 billion has been invested– 44% of all investment since 2009!7
Launch Vehicles
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Downstream
Downstream applications have received the vast majority of equity investment (see next page) in the space sector having received $82.1B (out of the total $109.2B) into 405 companies since 2004 (most of that has been since 2014)7. This is prior to the launch of the bulk of the infrastructure; are all these companies ready to effectively utilise this onslaught of data and connectivity to support the market. This is good news for this area of the space sector as there will be plenty of supply, and competition will drive the costs lower. With more downstream applications becoming possible the space sector can create further impact across the wider industry.
Applications
7 https://www.spacecapital.com/publications/space-investment-quarterly-q1-2020
Constellations launched 2010 - 2019: By Application
By dividing up the constellations by applications you can see that they are evenly split between monitoring and connectivity satellites. Imagery, across many different spectrums, and IoT connectivity are the most prevalent applications. Signals Intelligence, consisting of AIS, ADS-B and RF Monitoring, and Internet, including direct-to-phone connectivity services e.g. 5G, also have strong competition. This shows the heavy competition across most satellite applications, although the numbers include constellations globally and it is difficult to tell how Chinese constellations and western applications will link up. Each constellation will give their unique perspective to their application and business model, meaning that users will have plenty of satellite solutions to fulfil their needs.
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Other
These are just a few areas that will be impacted by these constellations, and not necessarily the biggest, and the true effect goes beyond just these and the space sector. The ground segment will have to accommodate these satellites, manufacturing will have to keep up and new regulations will need to be put in place to name a few additional topics. There will be issues and innovations not yet thought of.
COUNTRIESThe start-ups that launched over the last 4 years have been relatively evenly distributed between North America, Asia and Europe. The 20 United States satellites made up the bulk of North America’s 24 and the 16 Chinese satellites also contributed heavily to Asia’s total. Europe is an anomaly in this sense with the 16 constellations coming from 10 countries – UK leading with 3. When launch capabilities arrive in Europe, like it has in Asia and North America, this may secure Europe’s footing in the upstream of the space sector.
Constellationslaunchedtheirfirstsatellite between 2016-2019
Cumulative Investment in Space - Source: Space Capital
13CONCLUSION
This article aimed to give an insight into the current scale of the satellite industry, and the turning point we are at. The momentum of the space industry has been building up and the investment that has been poured into these upcoming constellations and applications will soon come to a climax. From the number of constellations being launched it is evident that a huge positive change within the sector is coming about, and it will affect the whole space ecosystem and impact the world outside of the space sector.
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Disclaimer: whilst every effort has been made to provide accurate and up to date information, we recognise that this might not always be the case. If any reader would like to contribute edits or suggestions to our reports, kindly email the team and we will make the amendments.
Q2
2020
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