Smuggler Interdiction Model Based On Yosemite

Major Ed Masotti

N

Movement

4

The Model

Dual

st

5

Assumptions• Road Blocks • Require Sustained logistical support• Are ineffective around smuggler’s

Haven• Add a delay

• Patrols• Can patrol along all arcs• Will capture the smuggler

Smuggler Haven

Coalition Friendly

N

Movement

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

Smuggler’s Haven

NE2

NE1

Coalition Friendly

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

Nodes

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

Nodes and Edges

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W4

W3

W1

CP3

N12K

38K11K

9.5K16K9K

12K6K

5.5K 13.5K 18K

11.5K

19K

19K

20K19K

19K

9K4K

10K

15K

26K 10.5K

13K11K8K

12K

11K9K

10K

24K

14K8.5K

10K

13K19K

5.5K

12K

10K

7.5K

19K10K

5K

16.5K9K

13K

16.5K

5.5K

10K

6K

W4

Full Model

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W4

W3

W1

CP3

N

12K38K11K

9.5K16K9K

12K6K

5.5K 13.5K 18K

11.5K

19K

19K

20K19K

19K

9K4K

10K

15K

26K 10.5K

13K11K8K

12K

11K9K

10K

24K

14K8.5K

10K

13K19K

5.5K

12K

10K

7.5K

19K10K

5K

16.5K9K

13K

16.5K

5.5K

10K

6K

W4

Full Model

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W4

W3

W1

CP3

12K38K11K

9.5K16K9K

12K6K

5.5K 13.5K 18K

11.5K

19K

19K

20K19K

19K

9K4K

10K

15K

26K 10.5K

13K11K8K

12K

11K9K

10K

24K

14K8.5K

10K

13K19K

5.5K

12K

10K

7.5K

19K10K

5K

16.5K9K

13K

16.5K

5.5K

10K

6K

W4

Full Model

E1

NE2

19K

Arc ModelingN

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

Patrol Edges

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

Road Block Edges

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

Initial Path

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Series1

Operator Resilience Curve RoadBlocks Only

# of RoadBlocks

Prob

abili

ty o

f Eva

sion

Road Blocks Only

• Why the jump between 7 and 8 roadblocks?

• After 8 POE steadily declines

• Network is saturated at 21

• Can not Completely stop smuggler

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

7 Road Blocks

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

8 Road Blocks

Patrols Only

• Steady Decline until between 5 and 6.

• Network is saturated at 6

• Can Completely stop smuggler

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9Series1

Operator Resilience Curve Patrols Only

# of Patrols

Prob

abili

ty o

f Eva

sion

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

5 Patrols

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

6 Patrols

Road Blocks and Patrols

• Combinations effective but specific

• Network is saturated at 6 patrols

• Can Completely stop smuggler

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1Series1

Operator Resilience Curve RoadBlocks and Patrols

# of RoadBlocks, # of Patrols,

Prob

abili

ty o

f Eva

sion

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

Bad Weather Model

Bad Weather

• Bad Weather favors Coalition

• Only Need I Patrol

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Series1

Operator Resilience Curve RoadBlocks and Patrols (Bad Weather)

# of RoadBlocks, # of Patrols,

Prob

abili

ty o

f Eva

sion

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

No Patrols or Road Blocks

W4

N2

N3

CP1

CP2

CP4

CP5

E1

N4

C1

NE2

NE1

C2

E3

CP6

S1

S5

CP9

S4

E2

N1

CP8

S2

W6

W2

W5

S3

NE3

CP7

W3

W1

CP3

N

W4

1 Patrol

• If you have the ability to maximize patrols do so. – Best case is 6 patrols

• Otherwise use this as a tool to determine tradeoff versus cost of each type of asset.

• A useful tool for commander’s• Versatile Model– adaptable to many regions of the world. – Can expand to include multiple assets. – Can easily accommodate a larger

network.

Conclusions

• Analysis of Varying delay based trafficability

• Weighting locations that the smuggler would tend towards or avoid

• Differences by season• Expansion of different types of

assets

With More Time

QUESTIONS?