Snake River Fall Chinook Proposed Recovery Plan

Snake River Fall Chinook Symposium

West Coast Region

May 16, 2017

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries

Patty Dornbusch NOAA Fisheries

Presentation Overview

1. Listing context 2. Recovery scenarios and goals 3. ESU structure – relevance to scenarios 4. Recovery strategy

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Snake River Fall Chinook: Listing Context • Late 1980s: average annual returns ~ 100 natural-origin adults

• 1990: ~ 78 natural-origin adult fish returned

• 1992: ESA listing (habitat loss, hydropower impacts, overfishing, out-

of-ESU hatchery strays)

• 1995-present: FCRPS actions, IPC actions, hatchery production, harvest impact reductions improve status of ESU

• September 2015: Proposed Recovery Plan

• September 2017: Final Recovery Plan

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

Spatial Structure/Diversity Risk

Very Low Low Moderate High

Abundance/ Productivity Risk

Very Low (<1%) HV HV V M

Low (1-5%) V V

V

Lower Main.

Snake

M

Moderate (6 – 25%)

M M M

HR

High (>25%) HR HR HR HR

Status Has Improved Significantly Since Listing

• 2005-2014 geo-mean natural-origin abundance = 6,418 • Productivity (20-year R/S (1990-2009) = 1.5 • Uncertainties: Is abundance sustainable? Productivity of natural fish? • Not meeting de-listing criteria

Proposed Plan Goals: ESA and Broad Sense ESA: The ecosystems upon which Snake River fall Chinook depend are conserved such that the ESU is self-sustaining in the wild and no longer needs the protection of the ESA.

Broad Sense: Addresses natural production beyond ESA minimums.

• Support NPCC Subbasin Plan Visions

• Achieve ESA in a manner consistent with mitigation goals

• Reintroduction above Hells Canyon

• Treaty Rights and Tribal Trust – Both ESA and broad sense goals should support treaty and tribal trust harvest

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

Proposed Plan: ESA Recovery Goals Goals, objectives, recovery scenarios, criteria, and metrics

Objectives, scenarios, criteria, and metrics are based on TRT recommendations:

• Each MPG should have low extinction risk:

• half of all pops in the MPG need to be at low risk;

• at least one population at very low risk;

• populations targeted for low or very low risk largest and most productive historically and represent all historical major life history types;

• remaining populations should be maintained.

• Population-level criteria based on VSP parameters (abundance, productivity, spatial structure, diversity)

• Acknowledged could be alternative approaches and policy considerations

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

Historical ESU Structure: Relevance to Recovery Scenarios

8 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page

Potential Viability Scenarios (Proposed)

Scenario A. Two populations: one highly viable (extant pop), the other viable (reintroduced population above Hells Canyon). Scenario B. One population: highly viable with high certainty. Naturally produced fish well distributed and measured in the aggregate, across ESU. “Placeholder” Scenario. One population: highly viable with high certainty. Substantial amount of natural production from natural production emphasis areas.

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

Proposed Recovery Strategy

• Protect and improve status of extant population • Continue ongoing actions that have contributed to

improvements since listing • Identify and implement highest priority additional actions

(through LCMs, RME, etc.) • Preserve and pursue full range of viability scenarios

initially • Including second population above Hells Canyon • Explore NPEA option – develop specific scenario if possible

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

Proposed Hatchery Strategy • Continue to work through existing processes

• Continue ongoing actions and identify and implement additional actions that reduce impact of hatchery fish

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Proposed Hatchery Actions: Ongoing • Continue to implement BMPs as identified in HGMP BiOp • Continue actions to minimize out-of-ESU strays • Continue to improve estimates of natural- and hatchery-origin

fish over LGR • Continue to validate & improve estimates of hatchery/natural

composition of spawners • Continue to evaluate dispersal and homing fidelity of hatchery

releases • Ensure that adult returns from new hatchery programs (John

Day) do not stray above acceptable levels into Snake River

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Proposed Additional Hatchery Actions • Work through US v. OR co-managers forum to identify

& assess mgmt. frameworks that would achieve delisting by: a) Creating NPEAs that produce substantial level of

natural-origin spawners and low pHOS, or b) Reducing HOS in the population overall

• Model feasibility of frameworks that would result in achieving VSP objectives for highly viable popn. based on performance in NPEAs.

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Proposed Additional Hatchery Actions • Identify data gaps that limit assessment of feasibility

of NPEA management frameworks and implement RME to fill gaps

• Develop appropriate metrics for evaluation of VSP status in NPEAs and other MaSAs

• Assess expense, logistical difficulty, and consequences of implementing NPEA frameworks.

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