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Return Over Influence Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case Web Analytics Association São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009 [email protected] Twitter: @mcoutinho
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Return Over Influence
Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case
Web Analytics AssociationSão Paulo, Brazil, October 2009
[email protected] Twitter: @mcoutinho
Overview
• Social Networks on the Internet
• Digital Social Networks in Brazil
• The case for advertising– Brands and Social Capital
• Old AND New Metrics
• Debate
Social Networks on the Internet
Sociable Media, MIT Media Lab
France
4m
Italy
3.4m
Turkey
2m Pakistan0.97m
Czech
0.6m
MEXICO
4.1m
China43m
South Korea9.7m
Taiwan
4.2m
Philippines2.4m
BRAZIL
7.6m
Spain
4.5m
India
8.7m
Japan14m
Hong
Kong1m
USA
26.4m
CANADA
1.6m
UK
4.5m
Greece
0.3m
Australia1m
Germany
5.2m Romania
0.5m
Denmark0.3m
Poland1.1m
Netherlands
1.6m
Switzerland0.5m Austria
0.4m
Hungary0.1m
Russia
2.4m
% Write their own blog
60%+
40% -60%
30%-40%
<30%
Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
Italy
3.9m
Germany
8.2m
Switzerland0.9m
USA
43mSpain
4.7m
France
4.2m
Japan12.4m
Czech0.8m
Denmark0.6m
Austria0.6m
Greece
0.5m
Turkey3.3m
China39m
India
11.7m
South Korea9.4m
Romania1.4m
Netherlands
3.7m
CANADA4.2m
UK
11m
Australia2.6m
Hong Kong
1m
MEXICO
5.1m
BRAZIL
11.4m
Pakistan1.8m
Poland2.7m
Taiwan
3.9m
Philippines
3m
Hungary1m
Russia
6.1m
% joined a
social network
70%+
60% -69%
50%-59%
<49%
Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
Most Popular Categories - BR
Source: IBOPE
11,8 8,0
3,7
1,7
3,5
3,5
3,6
Source: State of the Media Survey 2009 / Deloitte
Time Spent on “social usage” on the internet in Brazil is almost 50% higher than in US
Q - What does it mean for advertising? A – First, that a costumer can generate in a
week more GRPs than you can buy in a year…
…and second, this can cost you a lot of money
Source: Wired
Source: Trust Barometer, Edelman, 2008
Radio
NP
Source: BBC
Digital social networks will change the way that we relate to the news, brands and products
It is not the end of “Broadcast”, but it is the birth of “Socialcast”
Source: Colective Dynamics Group, Columbia University
The death of the “opinion leader” or the birth of the “opinion climate”?
The real value generated by brandsand the consumer > facts
Consumers recognize (and search for) the trophies related to theirvalues and brands (media, websites, social networks, etc)
And happily “socialcast” thesevalues to their own networks
Source: Forrester Research, 2009.
Trust
Communication
Expertise
SocialCapital
Benefits
EmotionalSatisfaction1. Altruistic2. Competitive
Operational
Financial (reduction of Transaction costs)
Adapted from Bourdieu, 1997; Goshal, 1998; Scheinkman, 2000
SocialCurrency
A new type of market for Brands: Social Capital and Social Currency The trade for Facts
Yes, but with careQuantitative Metrics - IAB
• Exposition (Broadcast)• Visitors / Unique Visitors• Visits• Time Spent
• Interactions (Socialcast)• Uploads / Downloads• Messages• Comments / Answers / Votes• Friends• Incoming Links• Members
Qualitative Socialcast Metrics still in beta…(ESPM)
• Relevancy– Number of relevant posts / number of total posts
• Dialogue extension and depth– First comment / Last comment (recency)
• Favorability– (number of total post – negative posts) / number of total
posts
What is an opinion to a machine?
It is a "quintuple", an object made up of 5 different things:
Oj = The thing in question (i.e product)
f jk = a feature of Oj
SO ijkl = the sentiment value of the opinion of the opinion holder hi on feature fjk of object oj at time tl
These 5 elements have to be identified by the machine
Source: Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Pang & Lee, 2008
It is not old X new metrics, but old AND new
Advertising is moving from a world built around Cathedrals (Broadcast media consumption, tools and metrics)…
… to a world ruled by the logic of the bazaar (even if the same owner has a lot of outlets)
Socialcast “channels”
and we are just beginning
Return Over Influence
Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case
Web Analytics AssociationSão Paulo, Brazil, October 2009
[email protected] Twitter: @mcoutinho
